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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  Palestinian telecom providers say the internet is down in Gaza following an uptick in bombardments by Israel. | Amir Levy/Getty Images | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Paul McLeary, Lara Seligman, Nahal Toosi and Daniel Lippman No one will say that Israel’s ground invasion has started. But Israeli military officials are acknowledging that its operations in Hamas-led Gaza are “expanding.” To be clear: That doesn’t mean the formal ground invasion has begun. But everyone’s being a bit cagey while Israel increases its rate of bombardment of Gaza and the internet is down in the enclave, leading some to suspect that this may be the much-anticipated campaign. "The operation is expanding," IDF spokesperson Maj. NIR DINAR told NatSec Daily. Asked if that meant an increase of ground troops in Gaza, Dinar added that "there were ground troops in Gaza yesterday" and that “there are forces inside Gaza as we speak.” He wouldn't elaborate further. Dinar was basically reiterating a Friday announcement by IDF spokesperson Rear Adm. DANIEL HAGARI, who said, “In addition to the attacks that we carried out in recent days, ground forces are expanding their activity this evening.” “The IDF works powerfully in all dimensions in order to achieve the goals of the war,” he continued. Palestinian telecom providers say the internet is down in Gaza following an uptick in bombardments by Israel, leading some to speculate that Israel is preparing the battlefield for a larger operation against Hamas militants in the enclave it runs. National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY repeatedly declined to comment on the growing operation in a Friday briefing with reporters, saying that he didn’t want to derail Israel’s plans. He wouldn’t even confirm that Israeli troops were in Gaza, even though Israel’s government had already said that was the case (Dinar’s comment above notes that, as well). A Friday story in The Jerusalem Post by YONAH JEREMY BOB begins: “The IDF invasion of Gaza has begun, you just did not hear about it, or heard about it but could not tell. In the last couple of days, the IDF initiated three targeted and short incursions into Gaza, before withdrawing each time.” The maneuvers come after Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU has for days signaled that a larger operation in Gaza was imminent.
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Lockheed Martin is innovating with urgency to solve today’s hypersonic strike and defense challenges. We’re investing in the American hypersonic workforce and supplier base, to ensure our customers stay ready for what’s ahead. Learn more. | | | | | THINKING BEHIND SYRIA STRIKE: The U.S. has hit Iranian targets in Syria multiple times over the last three years — including as recently as March. But Thursday night’s airstrikes pummeled a region in far more turmoil than in any of those previous instances. The operation against two facilities used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including an ammunition storage area, came after American forces suffered 19 drone and rocket attacks in Syria and Iraq this month alone. They led to the injuries of 21 service members, 19 of whom were diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries. Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN blamed Tehran for the assaults and asserted that the U.S. response was “separate and distinct from the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas.” He added that the strikes did not constitute “a shift in our approach” to that fight. Three senior U.S. officials told Alex and LARA SELIGMAN that while the main goal of the Thursday strikes was to ward off further Iranian-supported attacks on Americans, another was to make sure the broader Middle East conflict didn’t grow. The U.S. this month has rushed several ships, fighter planes and air defenses to the region to protect American forces and make adversaries think twice before attacking again. “We obviously don't want to see the conflict deepen. Everything we've done –– the additional forces, the messaging –– is intended to prevent escalation,” one of the officials said. “We've also got troops and facilities to protect and interests to defend. We have to do both and we can do both.” As the U.S. orchestrated its response to the recent flurry of strikes, planners took the broader Middle East dynamics into account. It was vital to send a strong message without offering such a massive response that it would prompt another retaliation — leading to tit-for-tat fighting that eventually could light a powder keg, said two of the officials. “Hopefully, they will deter further attacks, but if they don't, we'll do what we need to do,” the first U.S. official said. HOSTAGE NEGOTIATIONS: Hamas will release hostages being held in Gaza when Israel stops bombarding the territory with airstrikes and agrees to a ceasefire, a top militant group official said today. Hamas Politburo member ABU MARZOU told Russian state media the group has received requests from Russia, the United States, France, Spain and Italy to release the hostages, but it views Moscow’s request — which also calls for an end to fighting — "more positively and attentively than the others,” per Reuters’ MARK TREVELYAN and GARETH JONES. But “significant progress” has been made on Qatar-led hostage negotiations, people familiar with the negotiations told CNN’s BECKY ANDERSON and ALEX MARQUARDT. “Negotiations are going very well. We have a breakthrough,” one person said without giving details, other than that Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs BARBARA LEAF is in Doha to meet with Qatari leaders.“There are issues still remaining, but talks are ongoing, and we remain hopeful.” Read: Muslim leaders criticize Biden over his Palestinian death toll remarks in private meeting by our own HOLLY OTTERBEIN PIPELINE DAMAGE LINKED: Estonian Prime Minister KAJA KALLAS said she has “reason to believe” the multiple cases of damage to Baltic Sea critical infrastructure earlier this month are related to each other, our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA reports. Earlier this month, the Balticconnector gas pipeline — which links NATO members Finland and Estonia — was ruptured, along with two underwater telecommunication cables that connected Estonia to Finland and Sweden. The three incidents are likely related, Kallas said, though she did not publicly provide evidence for why Estonia believes the incidents are linked. Finnish authorities said this week that they suspect that a Chinese vessel caused the rupture in the Balticconnector gas pipeline after finding an anchor on the floor of the Baltic Sea during a preliminary investigation. The object is believed to have caused the rupture. BIDEN-WANG MEETING: President JOE BIDEN met with China’s top diplomat WANG YI on Friday, increasing speculation that Biden may meet with Chinese paramount leader XI JINPING in a few weeks at the APEC summit in San Francisco. “The President emphasized that both the United States and China need to manage competition in the relationship responsibly and maintain open lines of communication. He underscored that the United States and China must work together to address global challenges,” the White House summarized in a short statement. Wang’s chat with Biden came after the diplomat spoke with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN during a three-day visit to the U.S. The trip caps a flurry of diplomatic activity to ensure U.S.-China relations don’t spiral out of control, especially as they reached rock bottom during the spy balloon hullabaloo(n). DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring MAX BERGMANN, director of the Central for Strategic and International Studies’ Europe work. When he’s not tracking the mile-by-mile war in Ukraine, Bergmann is downing a Bobby Van's Amber at — you guessed it — Bobby Vans on 15th Street in D.C. “The bartenders are great. I don’t even order. I walk in and my drink is poured,” he told NatSec Daily. Alex, a pilsner and lager fan, asked why Bergmann is all about that #AmberLyfe. “I like darker beers, and this Amber is smooth and easy to drink,” he said. (“Fair enough,” Alex conceded.) Cheers, Max!
| | | | GET READY FOR POLITICO’S DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/14: Russia’s war on Ukraine … China’s threats to Taiwan … a war in Gaza. The U.S. is under increasing pressure to deter, defend and fight in more ways — but not everyone agrees how. Join POLITICO's 3rd Annual Defense Summit on November 14 for exclusive interviews and expert discussions on global security and the U.S.'s race to bolster alliances and stay ahead of adversaries. Explore critical topics, including international conflicts, advanced technology, spending priorities and political dynamics shaping global defense strategies. Don’t miss these timely and important discussions. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | RON’S HERITAGE SPEECH: Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS used much of his speech at The Heritage Foundation today to criticize the White House’s approach toward Israel’s battle with Hamas, underscoring how the conflict has become a central issue in the 2024 presidential race. Israel needs “to end Hamas once and for all, and we should be supportive of that not just publicly, but also in private. Not just in words, but also in our deeds,” DeSantis said in an apparent dig at the Biden administration, which has urged some restraint from Israel since the Hamas attacks. A White House official today told Reuters’ STEVE HOLLAND, MATT SPETALNICK and HUMEYRA PAMUK that the White House’s shift in tone, from total support for Israel’s retaliation to calling for the nation to minimize Palestinian civilian deaths, was based on "the facts on the ground" and “conversations with countries around the world.” DeSantis also argued that Biden isn’t being tough enough on Iran: “His deferential posture to Iran has given them billions of dollars in sanctions relief, they have plowed that not just for terrorism in the Middle East, they're also plowing it into helping Russia with things like drones.” …AND HIS SPENDING SPREE: DeSantis’ state government may have tried to aid the shipment of weapons and ammunition to Israel, though his administration provided few details, our own GARY FINEOUT reported Thursday evening. The governor’s administration said Thursday for the first time that Florida taxpayers picked up the bill to transport drones, body armor and helmets for first responders to Israel. The state also worked to “help get clearance on flights sending weapons and ammunition to Israel through private parties.” “The weapons and ammunition, which were not purchased by the state, were transported separately,” JEREMY REDFERN, a spokesperson for DeSantis, said in a text message to Gary. He added that the Israeli authorities reached out to Florida “for assistance to clear federal bureaucratic hurdles associated with getting those items to Israel.”
| | | |   | | | | | AI AI, CAPTAIN: British Prime Minister RISHI SUNAK is hoping he can get Washington and Beijing to sign a shared communiqué outlining the risks of artificial intelligence next week, but it’s not looking too promising, our own VINCENT MANANCOURT and ELENI COUREA report (for Pros!). Sunak hoped to gather world leaders at his AI summit next week, but plans are already falling through. Biden was an early confirmed no-show, with the U.S. sending VP KAMALA HARRIS instead. Canadian Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU and Germany Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ are also unlikely to attend, and French President EMMANUEL MACRON will not attend, an Élysée official told our colleagues. Some countries, like Japan, are exploring the possibility of attending virtually. The lack of star names could point to an uncomfortable reality for team Sunak: His summit has strained relations with allies. Some share widespread disquiet with the British summit’s focus on longer-term risks of AI, such as the tech being used by terrorists to create bioweapons, at what critics say is the expense of current dangers, such as bias in AI. Also, there are officials in the E.U. and the U.S. who see the British summit as an irritating distraction from their own arguably more substantial governance initiatives: the E.U.’s AI Act and a White House executive order — expected Monday — which will both go much further than anything Britain’s summit can achieve, but which focus on much more mundane risks of the technology.
| | | SEND THE DOME: A bipartisan duo of senators are thrilled that the Biden administration is sending Iron Dome batteries to Israel. “The Iron Dome defense system is the only thing preventing Hamas’s rockets from killing countless innocent people,” said Sen. JACKY ROSEN (D-Nev.), who alongside Sen. MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.) pushed for their transfer to the ally. On Thursday, Brig. Gen. PATRICK RYDER, the Pentagon spokesperson, confirmed that two Iron Dome batteries were headed to Israel to help with its air defenses.
| | SPEAKER SUPPORTS UKRAINE: Yesterday afternoon, we broke down how House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON’s position on Ukraine is murky, to say the least. On Thursday night, he clarified that he’ll stand with Kyiv as takes up his new post. “We can’t allow VLADIMIR PUTIN to prevail in Ukraine because I don’t believe it would stop there,” Johnson told Fox News’ SEAN HANNITY, adding that “we must stand with our important ally in the Middle East and that’s Israel.” He insisted that Congress is “not going to abandon” Ukraine. Last year, Johnson voted against sending Kyiv a $40 billion package, saying it could be better spent on priorities at home. He also voted in favor of three amendments that would’ve limited assistance to Kyiv in the annual defense authorization bill.
| | | | PLAYBOOK IS GOING GLOBAL! We’re excited to introduce Global Playbook, POLITICO’s premier newsletter that brings you inside the most important conversations at the most influential events in the world. From the buzzy echoes emanating from the snowy peaks at the WEF in Davos to the discussions and personalities at Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to the heart of diplomacy at UNGA in New York City – author Suzanne Lynch brings it all to your fingertips. Experience the elite. Witness the influential. And never miss a global beat. BE PART OF THE CONVERSATION. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | HAMAS SANCTIONS: The U.S. sanctioned eight people for supporting Hamas, as well as the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps officials involved in financing and training the militant group, Blinken announced today. Several of those sanctioned helped Hamas-affiliated companies evade sanctions, he added. An entity, which wasn’t disclosed, was also designated by the U.S. for its ties to militant groups in the region, including Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Iranian Bonyad Shahid. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary WALLY ADEYEMO urged the British government to expand its sanctions on Hamas, saying in a statement that he’s meeting with U.K. officials today to expand efforts to crack down on the militant group. Read: Putin’s (still) not dead, Kremlin insists by our own NICOLAS CAMUT
| | — Col. DAVE BUTLER is now the communications adviser to Army Chief of Staff Gen. RANDY GEORGE. He was the communications adviser to then-Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY. — BELLA GRABOWSKI is now acquisitions policy and programs analyst at Falcon Research where she is currently supporting the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Space Acquisition and Integration. She most recently was government affairs manager at Intelsat. — SALEM MARIAM has been promoted to be special assistant to the president for national security agency personnel. She most recently was senior associate director for national security agency personnel at the Presidential Personnel Office at the White House. — TED HARSHBERGER is now senior counselor at The Defense Concepts Organization, a strategic consultancy focusing on national security. He previously worked as vice president at Lockheed Martin Studies and Analysis and was the vice president and director of RAND Project AIR FORCE. — SARAH MORGENTHAU has been named the State Department’s new special representative for commercial and business affairs. She previously served as a deputy assistant secretary in the Department of Commerce.
| | — CASEY MICHEL, POLITICO: The Key to Understanding Russia’s Aggression in Ukraine Might Be Its History — in Alaska — DENNIS ROSS, The New York Times: I Might Have Once Favored a Cease-Fire With Hamas, but Not Now. — MYLES CAGGINS III and CAROLYN MOORMAN, New Lines Institute: Preparing for Withdrawal From Syria: Building an Immigration Program for U.S. Partners of Operation Inherent Resolve
| | — The United States Institute of Peace, 10 a.m.: Faith Under Fire in Russia’s War on Ukraine — The Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: A Brewing Storm: The Conflict in Sudan and its International Ramifications — The Wilson Center's History and Public Policy Program, 4 p.m.: An Army Afire: How the US Army Confronted Its Racial Crisis in the Vietnam Era Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who always levels punishments with the harshest force. We also thank our producer, Emily Lussier, who metes out justice with the utmost fairness.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Innovating at hypersonic speed.
Lockheed Martin is innovating with urgency to solve today’s hypersonic strike and defense challenges. We’re investing in the American hypersonic workforce and supplier base, to ensure our customers stay ready for what’s ahead. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
