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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Maggie Miller and Matt Berg | |  Peter van Praagh, president of the Halifax International Security Forum, offers remarks at the opening session Nov. 18, 2022. Van Praagh said this year’s theme will counter the growing argument that Kyiv doesn’t need more military and economic aid from its biggest backers. | Andrew Vaughan/The Canadian Press | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from John Sakellariadis and Daniel Lippman HALIFAX, Nova Scotia — The Halifax International Security Forum plans to send a message to the world this weekend: Peace in the Middle East and a host of other global problems depend on Ukraine beating back Russia. The annual gathering of senior officials from around the globe, American lawmakers and civil society leaders is uniquely focused on Kyiv’s fight against Moscow as support in Washington and European capitals slip away. The conference’s organizers hope the weekend retreat in the unseasonably warm Nova Scotian capital will rally the West once again to Ukraine’s cause. PETER VAN PRAAGH, the forum’s chief, told NatSec Daily this year’s theme will counter the growing argument that Kyiv doesn’t need more military and economic aid from its biggest backers, namely the U.S. “They're wrong,” he said of the people who make that case. “All of our security is tied to success in Ukraine. That's the hard position that we're taking. For the simple reason, and we’re going to spend the whole weekend spelling it out, is that every other challenge becomes more difficult.” “Victory in Ukraine equals victory for Israel,” van Praagh asserted. While the Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Hamas conflicts are very different, they both involve democracies fighting against forces that want them wiped from the map. He made this point the centerpiece of his 15-minute opening address on Friday afternoon. It’s unclear how much this message will resonate outside the Biden administration. While the White House also argues Ukraine and Israel are part of one broader fight, that pitch hasn’t moved many skeptics in Washington of sending more weapons to Kyiv. Some European countries are looking to the U.S. for guidance on whether to maintain the steady pace of deliveries. And much as forum organizers would like the weekend sessions to center around Ukraine and global democracy, Israel-Hamas is likely to suck up lots of the oxygen. Protesters outside the hotel, waving Palestinian flags and telling attendees to leave Halifax, are reading off the names of those killed in Gaza since Israel retaliated against the militants following the brutal Oct. 7 attack. Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) will lead the six-lawmaker delegation to Halifax — five senators and one House representative — using the opportunity to meet with foreign officials and show solidarity for the global democratic movement. Sen. MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.), a delegation member who’ll be eating the infamous lobster in Halifax, previewed that the delegation will discuss the need to support Ukraine and Israel staunchly at the same time. “We have to multitask, and we are capable of doing that,” he said in an interview. “We can’t turn away from our friends simply because we have obligations in the Middle East, and our role is to make sure that we provide oversight as the administration does their best to respond in both locations.” Rounds concluded: “We’ve got adversaries all over the world, but we’ve also got allies all over the world.” Those allies will certainly want to meet with the delegation and the State Department-heavy American lineup. Dignitaries from European countries like Ukraine, Taiwan and other governments will look to make their case for continued backing from Washington. In recent years, Halifax has become a global therapy session about the United States, with foreign officials expressing concerns about America’s foreign policy or its resolve in helping Kyiv defeat Russia. Those same jitters are visible again this year, with lawmakers especially anticipating some tough conversations with allies. Sen. THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.) told us he’s looking forward to ”monitoring and getting a sense of the mood for so many things that we have to do.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | ISRAEL’S GROUND PROGRESS: Israel is close to dismantling the Hamas militant group’s operation in northern Gaza, a top Israeli official said today, vowing to push further into the territory. Recent ground operations by Israel’s military were “only the beginning,” the head of Israel’s National Security Council, TZACHI HANEGBI, said today, per The Washington Post. Hangebi added that “we won’t stop until all of the military and control abilities of Hamas and Islamic Jihad are neutralized.” The Israel Defense Forces walked journalists from The New York Times to a tunnel shaft underneath the Shifa hospital in Gaza on Thursday night, which it claims is evidence of Hamas militants operating beneath the ground where civilians were sheltering. But Israel’s military said it hasn’t yet ventured through the shaft because of concerns about booby traps, the Times’ PHILIP PAN and PATRICK KINGSLEY report. “The controlled visit will not settle the question of whether Hamas … has been using Al-Shifa Hospital to hide weapons and command centers, as Israel has said,” they write. Adding to the skepticism, a doctor at the hospital told Reuters’ ABIR AHMAR that the IDF “found nothing” during their searches. As Israel’s ground operation in Gaza pushes forward, the U.N. World Food Program warned that all of the 2.3 million Palestinian civilians in Gaza — nearly half of whom are children — are at high risk of starvation and other life-threatening conditions as humanitarian aid trickles into the territory. UKRAINE’S STRATEGIC WINS: Kyiv’s troops took several bridgeheads on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River in the Kherson region, a small but strategic gain in the midst of a largely standstill war, The Associated Press’ ILLIA NOVIKOV and BRIAN MELLEY report. Ukraine’s marine corps said dozens of tanks, armored vehicles and other weapons were also damaged in the battle. It’s a notable win for Kyiv, as it's the first time its military has claimed advances along one of Russia’s most significant strategic barriers. Ukrainian troops are attempting to push Russian forces away from the river to stop shelling that has hit civilian areas in the Ukrainian-held west bank, the general staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said in a report today, per the AP. But Kyiv may have trouble recruiting troops as the war continues without a clear end in sight. Some 20,000 Ukrainian men have fled the country, swimming through dangerous rivers and faking illness to avoid being drafted, the BBC’s OANA MAROCICO and KELVIN BROWN report. More than 21,000 men tried to flee but were caught by Ukrainian authorities, who banned men aged 18-60 from leaving after Russia’s invasion. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring STEVEN GRUNDMAN, a senior fellow with the Forward Defense practice of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. When Grundman isn’t analyzing the defense industry at the Atlantic Council, you can find him on Wednesdays at Union Market’s Saint Anselm. Why Wednesday mid-evenings? “Don’t ask me why,” Grundman laughs off. If you join him, you’ll see Grundman sipping a Southside, a gimlet variant. Chris, the bar’s master gin-based cocktail producer, introduced Grundman to the drink. Cheers, Steve! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | AGE DIVIDE ON ISRAEL-PALESTINE: American divisions are growing wider as the Israel-Hamas conflict continues, with the youngest Democratic voters showing much more support for Palestinians than other age groups, our own BRITTANY GIBSON reported Thursday evening. Most Americans say they’re more sympathetic toward Israelis in the conflict, according to a Quinnipiac University poll. But the number of voters sympathizing more with Palestinians increased by double digits — to 24 percent from 13 percent in a Quinnipiac survey last month. The shift is largely driven by respondents under 35 years old, who overwhelmingly said they disapprove of Israel’s response to the Oct. 7 Hamas attack (66 percent), have greater sympathy for Palestinians in the conflict than Israelis (52 percent) and believe the U.S. is too supportive of Israel (50 percent). Older voters, especially those over 65, were far more likely to hold the opposite positions and be more supportive of Israel, as were Republican voters.
| | | | DANGEROUS LIAISONS: Is Microsoft’s continued presence in China propping up Beijing’s AI industry and leaving U.S. networks exposed to hacks? The ranking member of the House budget committee wants answers from the U.S. tech giant. In a letter sent Thursday to Microsoft President BRAD SMITH and obtained by our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS, Rep. BRENDAN BOYLE (D-Penn.) argues that the tech giant’s footprint in China has produced “conflicts of interests” for the firm that risk undermining U.S. national security and propping up Beijing’s security services. “I want to ensure that American national security, as well as the protection of our allies, is not inadvertently at risk due investments in an increasingly hostile People’s Republic of China,” Boyle writes. Microsoft declined to comment. BIN LADEN LETTER BAN: Yesterday we wrote about OSAMA BIN LADEN’s “Letter to America,” detailing why he orchestrated the Sept. 11 attacks, that made its rounds on social media. You’d be hard-pressed to find those videos today. "Content promoting this letter clearly violates our rules on supporting any form of terrorism," TikTok wrote in a statement, saying reports that it was "trending" on the platform were inaccurate, per Reuters’ SHEILA DANG and DAVID SHEPARDSON. NatSec Daily’s search results on the social media app for “Letter to America” came up empty today: “This phrase may be associated with behavior or content that violates our guidelines,” the results page reads. (It's worth noting that videos about the letter can likely be found on X and other platforms where it was reposted.)
| | | |   | | | | | ‘LESS-WORSE DEFEAT’: The defense industry is relieved Congress avoided a government shutdown. But not that relieved. In an interview with our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!), Aerospace Industries Association CEO ERIC FANNING said his members are sweating about a mandatory 1 percent federal budget cut that would come, under the debt limit deal, if Congress does not pass all 12 full-year spending bills. Fanning also lamented the effects of the continuing resolution itself. That’s because the stopgap simply carries over the previous year’s funding levels and blocks the Pentagon from starting new programs or ramping up existing ones. On top of that, DOD will be operating at an old topline that’s tens of billions of dollars below what it requested in its fiscal 2024 budget and what Congress would likely grant them in a full-year deal. “It's easy to lose sight of the fact that we're still now just extending — we're in a second CR, and those are incredibly disruptive,” he said. “So I'm trying to remind people not to think of this as a victory, but as a less-worse defeat.”
| | DEMS CONDEMN GAZA OUTAGE: The Gaza Strip’s indefinite internet and telecommunications blackout, caused by a critical fuel shortage, has sparked outrage among human rights groups and Democratic lawmakers alike. “We’ve repeatedly called for fuel to be delivered into Gaza and know that there are secure means to ensure that it gets to its intended recipients,” Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) told our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!). “The Netanyahu government must allow fuel into Gaza in order to meet the vital needs — including water from desalination plants, generators for hospitals, and basic telecom services — of the 2 million innocent civilians caught in the midst of this conflict through no fault of their own.” Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), who co-signed a letter with Van Hollen and other Democratic senators last week urging the U.S. to ensure fuel deliveries into Gaza for critical services, is looking to the White House. “The entry of fuel into Gaza yesterday is proof positive that it can reach the intended recipients while preventing diversion to Hamas,” Murphy said in a statement.
| | | ‘A STUDY OF UNPREPAREDNESS’: Every Canadian federal department publishes annual post-mortems on the fiscal year that was. The 2022-23 reports just dropped, and the Department of National Defense served up a doozy, as our own NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY reports in Ottawa Playbook. Canada's military can't deploy multiple operations concurrently amid a recruitment crisis, aging fleets, crumbling infrastructure and billions in planned spending cuts. And the bureaucrats who penned the report saved the strongest language for the footnotes. Gen. WAYNE EYRE, Canada's chief of the defense staff, recently set the stakes for Canada's armed forces in an interview with CBC's HANNAH THIBEDEAU. The top soldier's big takeaway: "The study of our military history could almost be considered a study in unpreparedness."
| | — JOSHUA GELTZER is now deputy White House counsel and legal adviser to the NSC. He continues as deputy assistant to the president and most recently was deputy homeland security adviser.
| | — Sen. JONI ERNST, Fox News: Four-pronged strategy U.S. must deploy to defeat world’s No. 1 state sponsor of terrorism — PAUL POAST, The Atlantic: Not a World War But a World at War — JOSH PAUL, The New York Times: I Knew U.S. Military Aid Would Kill Civilians and Undermine Israeli Security. So I Quit.
| | — Georgetown University, 3:30 p.m.: The Current Situation in Ukraine: Prospects for War Termination Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is the reason we’re in therapy. We also thank our producer, Emily Lussier, who listens to all our problems with Heidi.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
