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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  Flames erupt next to a press car following reported Israeli shelling in Lebanon's southern border village of Yaroun on November 13, 2023, amid increasing cross-border tensions between Hezbollah and Israel. | AFP/Getty Images | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Nahal Toosi, Lara Seligman, Daniel Lippman and Eugene Daniels The conflict in the Middle East has at least three fronts — and there’s a chance it opens up into more. Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group and political party, are trading rocket attacks and airstrikes that have killed or wounded dozens along Israel’s northern border. The U.S. and Iranian proxies also have escalated their long-running shadow war, with mounting attacks on regional American forces prompting President JOE BIDEN to authorize two recent bombings of Iranian-linked facilities in Syria. The latest one on Sunday killed an unknown number of proxy members, U.S. officials have said. Those are the main events, but undercard fights threaten to take the spotlight. Iran-backed Houthi rebels fired a ballistic missile at Israel, which Israel intercepted, and downed a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone. Iranian proxies in Syria are also looking to escalate their ongoing conflict with Israel. Settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank has ticked up enough that the White House urged Israel to stop it. Ask the administration and they’ll say all the fighting isn't of one piece. “I wouldn't necessarily describe it as a three-front conflict. I would accept that there is an exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah. There's an obvious, ongoing military operation in Gaza. And, yes, we have been struck repeatedly by proxy groups of the IRGC in Iraq and Syria," national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told reporters at the White House today after questioning from POLITICO, using the acronym for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, noting the U.S. had responded to those attacks. "That is all correct." Some analysts, however, say the fighting is more geographically expansive than the administration acknowledges. “We’re already in a wider war,” said PHILLIP SMYTH, an expert on Iranian national security policy. “The issue is how large in scope it’s going to become.” BILAL SAAB, director of the defense and security program at the D.C.-headquartered Middle East Institute, noted broader fighting between the U.S. and Iran is unlikely because Tehran fears American military power. The Biden administration sent two carrier strike groups and more forces to the region as a deterrent. “What I am worried about, though, is the exchange of fires between Hezbollah and Israel spiraling out of control,” Saab said. “The rules of engagement between these two may not hold much longer. The perimeter of deadly shelling is widening by the day and reaching targets deeper inside each side's territory." The messaging around that battle has only intensified. “What we can do in Gaza, we can also do in Beirut,” Israeli Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT said recently. Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN warned Gallant in a call Saturday against upping Israel-Hezbollah tensions, Axios reported yesterday. One question is if the U.S. can keep itself out of the fray. The New York Times’ ERIC SCHMITT reported last night that Biden has rebuffed more aggressive retaliatory options against Iranian proxies for fear of escalating the conflict. The president wants to send a message while not lighting the regional powder keg. But the cliche of the enemy getting a vote remains instructive. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy counts at least 66 Iranian proxy attacks on U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq since Oct. 18. That’s higher than the Pentagon’s official tally of 52 strikes since Oct. 17, which have injured a total of 56 service members. The spike in attacks compels the U.S. to keep responding, each time increasing the possibility of tit-for-tat retaliations getting out of hand. SUZANNE MALONEY, an expert on Iran and vice president of the Brookings Institution, doesn’t believe any actor wants a significant escalation of ongoing fights. “The actions of all parties seem to be calibrated to avoid that,” she told us. That reassuring analysis still comes with caveats. Iran, Maloney said, is using the interlocking conflicts to boost its regional standing and hurt Israel’s global reputation. “So even without an expanded war, Iran is unlikely to restrain its proxies from continuing to attack U.S. interests. And we are one catastrophic miscalculation away from a much larger and more dangerous conflict in the Middle East, with deepening American involvement, at a time when we are struggling even just to sustain our support to Ukraine.”
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Learn more. | | | | | HAMAS WANTED TO DO MORE: Hamas had planned to kill more innocents in Israel than it did on Oct. 7, The Washington Post’s SHIRA RUBIN and JOBY WARRICK report, in hopes of sparking a large war with Israel. “The evidence … reveals an intention by Hamas planners to strike a blow of historic proportions, in the expectation that the group’s actions would compel an overwhelming Israeli response,” they wrote. “Some militants carried enough food, ammunition and equipment to last several days, officials said, and bore instructions to continue deeper into Israel if the first wave of attacks succeeded, potentially striking larger Israeli cities.” Meanwhile, Hamas recently refused fuel for Gaza’s al-Shifa hospital offered by Israel, Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU said Sunday. “We offered, actually, last night to give them enough fuel to operate the hospital, operate the incubators and so on, because we have obviously no battle with patients or with civilians at all. And I think every civilian death, every dead baby is a tragedy,” he told KRISTEN WELKER on NBC News’ “Meet the Press.” Doctors at the hospital separately told NBC News that three babies died over the weekend with 36 others at risk of death due to the lack of power. Israeli forces are nearing the hospital, The New York Times reports. The expectation is they will enter al-Shifa to ensure it’s clear of Hamas militants and facilities, including a possible reveal of tunnels underneath the hospital. Israel is pushing Hamas to surrender al-Shifa, per The Wall Street Journal. "We don't want to see firefights in hospitals," Sullivan told reporters today, following Biden's comment that "hospitals must be protected." FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — BLINKEN’S TRIP MESSAGE: In a message today to his staff, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said U.S. diplomats voicing frustration over the Biden administration’s approach to the Israel-Hamas war are affecting policy by speaking up. “We’ve organized forums in Washington to hear from you, and urged managers and teams to have candid discussions at posts around the world precisely so we can hear your feedback and ideas,” Blinken wrote in the email, obtained by our own NAHAL TOOSI. “I’ve asked our senior leadership to keep doing that. We’re listening: what you share is informing our policy and our messages.” Blinken’s note comes as a number of State Department staffers are circulating or signing dissent memos that critique U.S. policy on the war. He stuck largely to his public talking points about the conflict, including the desire to see a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians, but he also indicated that the U.S. will not back off its support for Israel. “Our overarching objective remains the same: to bring this terrible conflict to a close as quickly as possible, while standing by Israel’s right and obligation, in full accordance with international law, to ensure a terrorist attack like October 7th never happens again,” Blinken wrote. PAKISTAN UPS DEPORTATIONS: Pakistan opened three new border crossings today amid the country’s crackdown on foreign nationals living there illegally, The Associated Press’ ABDUL SATTAR reports. Some 300,000 Afghans, who make up most of Pakistan’s foreign population, have been deported since early October, drawing criticism from human rights organizations and Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government alike. The deportations follow a rise in attacks on Pakistan's security forces and citizens from Taliban-aligned militant groups since the group took over in Afghanistan two years ago. About 15,000 Afghans were crossing the border each day since the crackdown. With five border crossings total now, that number could increase sharply. MYANMAR JUNTA’S CHALLENGE: Myanmar’s ruling junta is facing the biggest test to its leadership yet from ethnic minority insurgent groups, which have opened two new fronts in the ongoing civil war. The Arakan Army, one of three insurgent groups, seized a pair of military posts today as thousands of people fled to India for safety from the fighting, Reuters’ MARTIN PETTY and DEVJYOT GHOSHAL report. It’s the latest sign of trouble for Myanmar’s military junta since the trio of insurgent groups launched a coordinated attack in October, capturing some towns and security posts. "It will be hard for the regime to focus their efforts across all fronts,” RICHARD HORSEY, senior Myanmar Adviser for the Crisis Group think tank, told Reuters. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | GET READY FOR POLITICO’S DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/14: Russia’s war on Ukraine … China’s threats to Taiwan … a war in Gaza. The U.S. is under increasing pressure to deter, defend and fight in more ways — but not everyone agrees how. Join POLITICO's 3rd Annual Defense Summit on November 14 for exclusive interviews and expert discussions on global security and the U.S.'s race to bolster alliances and stay ahead of adversaries. Explore critical topics, including international conflicts, advanced technology, spending priorities and political dynamics shaping global defense strategies. Don’t miss these timely and important discussions. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | DONALD DUCKED MIDEAST PROGRESS?: Former President DONALD TRUMP scored only “low-hanging fruit” with his Middle East policy during his time in office, Republican presidential candidate CHRIS CHRISTIE said during a trip to Israel over the weekend. “I don’t think he has any principles on the issues at all,” Christie told The New York Times’ JONATHAN WEISMAN, saying Trump built on former President BARACK OBAMA’s diplomacy that favored Israel’s enemies and followed every request from Israel’s far-right government, leading to increased tensions in the region. “I think it’s just that he saw a public opportunity that Obama presented and he took it.” While Christie’s the most prominent Trump critic among the 2024 candidates, his rebuke is notable. Trump’s Middle East policy is widely seen as his most important diplomatic work. That’s especially true with the Abraham Accords, peace agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. Biden’s attempt to secure a peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia was widely seen as building on that work. “If Chris Christie thinks strengthening the U.S.-Israeli alliance, moving the embassy to Jerusalem, bringing peace to the Middle East with the Abraham Accords and enacting laws to protect Jewish Americans is low-hanging fruit, he is clearly living in a fantasy world not rooted in reality,” STEVEN CHEUNG, a Trump campaign spokesperson, told the Times.
| | SEASONS OF DISASTER: Russian cyberattacks against Ukraine are becoming increasingly seasonal in nature, targeting critical infrastructure most in use at various times of the year, Ukrainian cyber lead VICTOR ZHORA told our own MAGGIE MILLER. “In terms of focus, we can witness the seasonal nature of these attacks,” Zhora said, pointing to attacks on the energy sector often coming in colder months. Russian hackers have repeatedly targeted electric substations in Ukraine in colder months, including last year, while hackers might be more likely to target the agricultural sector during harvest times. Zhora talked with Maggie on the sidelines of the CYBERWARCON summit in Arlington last week, where Zhora delivered the keynote amid a bevy of other scheduled meetings in the nation’s capital. In recent months, lawmakers have become increasingly reluctant to provide Ukraine with further U.S. support to fend off Russian attacks. Zhora said this was not reflected in the cybersecurity support that Ukraine continues to receive. “The war continues,” Zhora said. “That means that the cyber component will be an integral part of this warfare and Ukraine will still need support. So we need to keep this level of support, this level of engagement of our partners.” KATHMANDU-NOT: Nepal is banning TikTok over hate content on the social media site, The New York Times’ BHADRA SHARMA reports. Officials from Nepal, a country of 30 million caught between the China-India power struggle, say the move isn’t to bash China and side with India, which also banned TikTok. “Officials cited the prevalence of content that they said was stoking religious hate, violence and sexual abuse and has led to clashes offline, forcing curfews and the deployment of the police,” per the NYT. “Our social harmony, family structure and family relations are being disturbed by social media, by TikTok,” said REKHA SHARMA, Nepal’s minister for communications and information technology.
| | | | Tune in as international security leaders from democracies around the world discuss key challenges at the 15th annual Halifax International Security Forum live from Nova Scotia. As an official media partner, POLITICO will livestream the conversation beginning at 3 p.m. on November 17. The Forum's full topical agenda can be found here. | | | | | | | | BUY AMERICAN BACKLASH: Biden and an influential bipartisan bloc of lawmakers want more U.S. military hardware to be made in America. But the defense industry — the beneficiary of the movement — says now is the wrong time, our own JOE GOULD, PAUL McLEARY and CONNOR O’BRIEN report. Supply chain problems, towering global demands for weapons and the need to work with allies to get it all done means that the America First movement should wait: “We don’t believe it’s the right time,” said KEITH WEBSTER, president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Defense and Aerospace Council, when asked about the Buy American provisions. Requirements like Buy American “hinder our relationships with partners and allies, impact our ability to improve supply chain resiliency with global partners, and contribute growing inflation, and we hope Congress considers this as they finalize year-end legislation,” DAK HARDWICK, VP for international affairs at Aerospace Industries Association, which represents 340 U.S. firms, also told our colleagues. SOLDIERS KILLED IN CRASH: Five U.S. soldiers who were killed in a helicopter crash in the eastern Mediterranean Sea on Friday were identified today, the Defense Department said. Staff Sgt. TANNER GRONE, Sgt. ANDREW SOUTHARD, Sgt. CADE WOLFE and chief warrant officers STEPHEN DWYER and SHANE BARNES died during a “routine flight training” in a MH-60 Blackhawk. There were no indications the crash was caused by enemy or hostile actions, the DOD said. NEW TRAINING CENTER: The European training center to teach Ukrainian pilots how to operate F-16 combat planes was officially opened today in Romania, our own LAURA KAYALI reports.
| | | |   | | | | | GET BEHIND GUAM: Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wisc.), chair of the House Select Committee on China, wrote a letter to Army Secretary CHRISTINE WORMUTH urging the Army to provide a plan for defending Guam from Chinese military aggression. "The PRC has spent decades developing both short and intermediate-range ballistic missiles that can target Guam,” Gallagher wrote today. Beijing has “also developed a formidable inventory of highly capable cruise missiles that can be launched from multiple platforms, including from ships, submarines and bombers." The U.S. territory is especially vulnerable to Chinese cruise missiles, Gallagher said, asking the Army for guidance on when the service’s missile defense system will be placed in Guam.
| | BLOOD, SUELLA AND TEARS: British Prime Minister RISHI SUNAK fired his home secretary, SUELLA BRAVERMAN, today after a bitter row over the policing of a pro-Palestinian march on the streets of London, our own ELENI COUREA and MATT HONEYCOMBE-FOSTER report. JAMES CLEVERLY, who was foreign secretary, took her post in a sudden Cabinet reshuffle. DAVID CAMERON, Britain’s former prime minister, was tapped for Cleverly’s spot. Braverman published an explosive article in the NYT last week accusing police of treating pro-Palestinian protesters more favorably than nationalists and the far-right. The article was not signed off by Sunak’s team, which faced immense pressure from British politicians to punish Braverman for her comments.
| | — ROBERT LEVINSON is Sen. LAPHONZA BUTLER’s (D-Calif.) new legislative assistant for defense foreign policy and veterans affairs, per his LinkedIn account. He was last in that post for the late Sen. DIANNE FEINSTEIN. — SAMER MOSIS is now director for energy markets at the National Security Council. He most recently was an international economist in the office of international affairs at the Treasury Department.
| | — SUSAN THORNTON and JOEL WIT, Project Syndicate: Biden and Xi must not forget North Korea — KRISTIN BURKE, War On The Rocks: Is military space-based jamming normal? Some worry it is — STEPHEN WERTHEIM, The New York Times: America hugged Israel close. Maybe it shouldn’t have.
| | — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 9 a.m.: Many sanctions, few friends: how the Myanmar junta grapples with its grip on power — The House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: Examining the Biden administration's Afghanistan policy since the U.S. withdrawal — The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 10:30 a.m.: 2023 Annual Report to Congress — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 p.m.: Book discussion on "Liar in a Crowded Theater: Freedom of Speech in a World of Misinformation” — The United States Institute of Peace, 1:30 p.m.: China's space collaboration with Africa — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: Countering uncrewed aerial systems — The House Foreign Affairs Oversight and Accountability Subcommittee, 2 p.m.: Go-to-zero: Joe Biden's withdrawal order and the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 5 p.m.: The future of artificial intelligence governance — The Common Good, 5:30 p.m.: Book discussion on "Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine” Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who has launched an unending war against us. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is a lover, not a fighter.
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