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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Matt Berg | |  Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump arrives at a campaign event in Portsmouth, N.H., on Jan. 17, 2024. | Matt Rourke/AP | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Alex Ward, Nahal Toosi and Lara Seligman This week, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY brushed off fears that the reelection of DONALD TRUMP would spell doom for U.S. support for his country, saying that “one man cannot change the whole nation.” As House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON hinted Wednesday night, however, Trump only needs to change the minds of a few key players — and he may already be doing so with more success than President JOE BIDEN. “[Trump] and I have been talking about this pretty frequently,” Johnson told Fox News hours after meeting with Biden and congressional leaders, a conversation the speaker said didn’t sway his position on the deal. Johnson last spoke with Trump on Monday night, the speaker added, who urged him not to compromise on the border deal that would unlock $60 billion in Ukraine funding. While Trump is talking to Johnson, officials from Kyiv haven’t had luck getting ahold of either of them, a Ukrainian expert with close ties to Zelenskyy’s administration, told NatSec Daily. “There's no stable communication between Ukrainian officials and the teams of Trump and Johnson,” the expert, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations, said in an email. “This lack of engagement seems intentional but could (we hope) change after the election. My understanding in short is like this: Ukraine tries, Trump/Johnson avoids.” Spokespeople for Trump didn’t respond to NatSec Daily’s requests for comment. Private citizens aren't supposed to negotiate with foreign governments on behalf of the U.S., so it makes sense that Trump would ignore their requests. Johnson’s office pointed NatSec Daily to a readout of a meeting between Johnson and Zelenskyy last month, as proof that the two have communicated somewhat recently, and said his natsec staff has been in regular contact with Ukrainian officials — but didn't specify how often. At least one GOP lawmaker has argued that negotiating a border deal that greenlights assistance to Ukraine would only help Biden win reelection, which could be an indicator of why Trump has been so involved. While it’s unclear how much Johnson takes the former president’s opinions into account, he has reason to stay on Trump’s good side in case the former president wins office again. But Biden’s meeting with U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday bore some fruit. As national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN and Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES explained what would happen if Congress doesn’t pass a bill with Ukraine funding, Republicans in attendance, including Johnson, “didn’t draw a red line” on their border security proposal, a White House official told Playbook. “I thought the meeting went well,” Biden told reporters today, per a readout. “I don’t think we have any sticking points left.” It’s possible that contributed to Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER’s estimation after the meeting that the chances for a deal are “a little bit greater than half now, and that’s the first time I can say that.” Speaking on CNN this morning, Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.) also said a deal is “very close to being done.” Meanwhile in Ukraine, most officials believe Washington will continue to send assistance, the Ukrainian expert said. Even so, the vast majority of Ukrainian officials view Trump’s return as potentially detrimental to the country, given his cordial relationship with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN, he said. The consensus in Kyiv is that Zelenskyy’s administration must strengthen ties with European allies to “fill the void” left by the U.S. this year, the expert said. Speaking with NatSec Daily at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Latvian President EDGARS RINKĒVIČS agreed that Europe needs to be self-reliant. “Regardless of who is going to win the next U.S. elections, there is one lesson for European allies: Increase defense spending,” Rinkēvičs said. While Ukraine is building ties with its neighbors, that doesn’t mean that it will stop pursuing collaboration with Republican lawmakers and the GOP presidential frontrunner. Instead, Kyiv will try to cultivate those relationships through American businesses and investors, the expert said. “This approach stems from the current situation where Trump's and Johnson's teams tend to overlook formal channels like the embassy and the president's office,” he added.
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Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | NEVER ENOUGH: As talks about Ukraine assistance persist, Kyiv’s ambassador to the U.S. said her nation's forces don't have enough weapons to win the war against Russia, Alex writes in. "The short answer is no, we don't have enough," OKSANA MARKAROVA told Semafor's STEVE CLEMONS when asked if Ukraine had enough ammunition and other weapons to keep fighting. "We need all the capabilities, the very primitive ones … but also the sophisticated ones." Speaking on the sidelines of Davos, Markarova then detailed Ukraine's success using drones to push back Russia's fleet in the Red Sea, noting her country is building more. But the ambassador added that other unconventional and electronic weapons could be useful on the battlefield: "We need all of it," she said. It's not an overly surprising message by a Ukrainian official. But her message was delivered with a sense of urgency, especially since weapons packages from Europe and the U.S. are no longer guaranteed. Earlier in the week at another side event on the Promenade in Davos, Ukrainian MP SASHA USTINOVA told a mostly American audience "we're going to lose without you, but we are also going to win with you." Read: DAVID CAMERON: It feels like the 1930s again and ‘evil’ Putin can’t win in Ukraine, by our own ANNE McELVOY and PETER SNOWDON BIBI BASHES TWO-STATE SOLUTION: Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU said he told the U.S. that he opposes any post-war establishment of a Palestinian state, underscoring a major rift between Washington and its biggest ally in the region. “In any future arrangement … Israel needs security control over all territory” west of Jordan, Netanyahu told reporters today, per The Associated Press’ NAJIB JOBAIN, JACK JEFFERY and MELANIE LIDMAN. “This collides with the idea of sovereignty. … The prime minister needs to be capable of saying no to our friends.” The U.S. has been pushing Israel to scale down its military offensive in the Gaza Strip and has called for the establishment of a Palestinian state after the war ends. Asked about Netanyahu’s comments, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters that the U.S. will “not stop working toward” a two-state solution. “If we took such statements as the final word, there would be no humanitarian assistance going into Gaza and no hostages released,” a senior administration official told NatSec Daily, granted anonymity to candidly respond to the remarks. “As with those and many other issues, we will continue to work toward the right outcome, particularly on issues where we strongly disagree.” The death toll continues to rise in the territory as Israel strikes areas of Gaza where it had told civilians to take refuge. Sixteen people, including eight children, were killed in an Israeli airstrike on a home in southern Gaza today, medics told the AP. Across the occupied West Bank, meanwhile, Israel’s military launched a series of raids that have killed a dozen people since Wednesday, The Guardian’s JASON BURKE reports. “There is a very strong siege on Tulkarem. It is a very terrible situation. We have never seen anything like this,” RADWAN BLEIBLE, a doctor at the al-Zakat hospital in the northern town, told The Guardian. On a related note, Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group — which has been engaged in skirmishes with Israeli troops on the country’s border for months — rejected Washington’s plea to refrain from fighting and pull its fighters from the border, Lebanese officials told Reuters’ LAILA BASSAM and MAYA GEBEILY. However, the group remains open to U.S. diplomacy to avoid a larger war, the officials said. Read: Iraqi leader dismisses US efforts in Middle East, by our own NAHAL TOOSI U.S. STRIKES AGAIN: U.S. forces launched a new barrage of strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen this morning, destroying two anti-ship missiles that were loaded and prepared to launch, a U.S. official told LARA SELIGMAN. This marks the fifth round of U.S. strikes against the Houthis in Yemen in a week, as the militants continue to target U.S. and international vessels in the Red Sea. American airstrikes also destroyed 14 Houthi missiles and launchers on Wednesday, U.S. Central Command announced. “My hope is that we will find a way to deter Iran, but for the intermediate term, it's going to require more action to prevent the Houthis” from attacking ships, Coons said on CNN this morning. As cross-border conflicts in the Middle East increase, Pakistan launched a series of retaliatory strikes on militants in Iran today, killing nine people, The Washington Post reports. Pakistani officials said the deaths included “a number of terrorists,” while Iranian state media reported that three women and four children were killed. The attacks were carried out with “drones, rockets, loitering munitions and standoff weapons,” according to Pakistan’s foreign ministry. It’s the latest in an escalating tit-for-tat that began after Iran said it targeted militants in Pakistan on Tuesday, but killed two children. NAHAL’S NOTEBOOK: Latvian President Rinkēvičs spoke with Nahal on a number of issues at Davos. Here’s what stood out to us: On the Israel-Hamas war: “The current situation has underlined how sometimes difficult it is to reach a European consensus. It's bad. It's bad for the EU because it's not able to act as a viable actor in the Middle East. I don't believe this is creating an additional strain between Europe and the United States.” On the war in Ukraine: “One thing that I think Americans are kind of not understanding or even ignoring is that when it comes to aid to Ukraine, Europe does more than the United States, because we do support Ukraine both militarily but also financially. And let's not forget about Ukrainian refugees that we are hosting.” Is humanity already witnessing World War III? “No, not yet. I do hope that the global wisdom will prevent that, but in that case, we need to be more bold. … We have to change the narrative. When it comes to Ukraine, it’s not about supporting Ukraine as long as it takes. It’s about supporting Ukraine to victory. Because if you don’t have this goal, we don’t mobilize.” IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | TRUMP’S LEGAL WOES: Engulfed in multiple legal battles, Trump reupped his call for presidents to have total immunity, “or the authority and decisiveness of a president of the United States will be stripped and gone forever.” This month, federal appeals court judges expressed deep skepticism of his contention that a president could not be prosecuted — even for assassinating a rival or selling military secrets — if he were not first impeached and convicted by Congress. “A president of the United States must have full immunity, without which it would be impossible for him/her to properly function. Any mistake, even if well intended, would be met with almost certain indictment by the opposing party at term end,” Trump wrote (in all caps, but we thought that was harder to read) on Truth Social this morning. He’s in court this week for a trial against writer E. JEAN CARROLL, who is suing him over derogatory comments he made about her while he was president.
| | WEEK-LONG BLACKOUT: Palestinians in Gaza have now been without internet access for seven days, the longest blackout since the war began, watchdog organization NetBlocks tweeted today. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is pressing Israel to restore telecommunications, our own JOSEPH GEDEON and MAGGIE MILLER reported Wednesday night. Administration officials fear the blackout will make it difficult for anyone to know what is happening between Hamas and the Israeli military as the war in Gaza continues, potentially worsening an already dire humanitarian situation. Read: Inside Biden’s secret surveillance court, by our own ALFRED NG and JOHN SAKELLARIADIS
| | | |   | | | | | SEE, WE’RE HELPING: France will send a dozen more Caesar self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine amid accusations that Paris is not pulling its weight in supplying weapons to Kyiv, our own LAURA KAYALI reports. French Armed Forces Minister SÉBASTIEN LECORNU announced today that Nexter will produce 78 Caesar cannons specifically for Ukraine. In addition to the 12 howitzers that France will provide, Kyiv has bought six more expected to be delivered in the coming weeks. Now, Lecornu is asking Western countries to help pay for the rest: "That leaves 60 [howitzers] to be financed, and I appeal to our allies to share the bill.” If other countries produce military equipment for Ukraine that French industry doesn't manufacture, Paris will be ready to contribute financially, he added. TOKYO DEAL: Japan signed a deal with the U.S. today to buy up to 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles as the country builds up its military amid increased instability in the region, the AP’s MARI YAMAGUCHI reports.
| | FUNDING THE FUTURE: Twelve defense technology companies are warning that if Congress does not install a $649 million funding line for the Defense Innovation Unit in fiscal 2024, the U.S. will fall behind China and Russia, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) scoop. The companies made the push to prioritize funding for emerging technology from nontraditional companies in a letter to House and Senate appropriators as Congress tries to avoid a government shutdown. DIU has acted as a conduit between the Pentagon and Silicon Valley, but has never had the funding to move past the “small dollar” pilot program phase, the group says.
| | | | NATO’S BIG DRILLS: Next week, NATO will kick off its largest military exercise in decades, involving some 90,000 troops, the alliance's top commander announced today. "The alliance will demonstrate its ability to reinforce the Euro-Atlantic area by a transatlantic movement of forces from North America," Gen. CHRIS CAVOLI told reporters in Brussels after a two-day meeting of national chiefs of defense, Reuters’ SABINE SIEBOLD and ANDREW GRAY report. The drills, dubbed Steadfast Defender 2024, will run through May, he said, adding that NATO members and Sweden will contribute troops for the exercise. BUILDING BRICSS: Saudi Arabia is still considering accepting an invitation to become a member of the economic alliance including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, two people with direct knowledge told Reuters’ MAHA EL DAHAN and DMITRY ZHDANNIKOV. "Saudi Arabia is assessing the benefits and then will make a decision, there is a process happening," one of the people said. Last year, the bloc invited the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Iran, Argentina and Ethiopia to join. China and India are among the kingdom’s largest trading partners, a clear incentive for the country to join the alliance. But such a move would likely frustrate Washington, which has been wary of Riyadh’s warming ties to Beijing and continued business with Moscow.
| | — MIKE PYLE, the deputy national security adviser for international economics at the White House National Security Council, will soon step down from his post, our own GAVIN BADE scooped.
| | — WILLIAM HARTUNG, Foreign Policy: Washington is exaggerating China’s military budgets — EDUARDO PORTER, The Washington Post: Forget about securing the border. It won’t work. — TIARA SAHAR ATAII, POLITICO: Britain must change approach to Gaza evacuations
| | — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: Tactically responsive Space: a holistic approach Thanks to our editor, Dave Brown, whose presidential ambitions concern us all. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is the best leader in the world.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
