The 3 biggest questions of the Austin saga

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Monday Jan 08,2024 09:02 pm
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.
Jan 08, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO's National Security Daily newsletter logo

By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg

President Joe Biden talks with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin after the State of the Union address.

President Joe Biden isn’t planning to fire Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his officials say he wouldn’t accept Austin’s resignation if offered. | Pool photo by Jacquelyn Martin

Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt

With help from Lara Seligman, Erin Banco and Daniel Lippman

NatSec Daily didn’t have a restful weekend after POLITICO broke the story that Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN’s hospitalization was kept from the White House and his own top aides for days.

Bipartisan pressure is mounting for answers, with Republicans calling for investigations into the communications breakdown threatening the Biden administration’s boasts of competency and transparency. President JOE BIDEN isn’t planning to fire Austin and his officials say he wouldn’t accept Austin’s resignation if offered. But we’re still at the start of figuring out what went wrong, leaving a befuddled D.C. natsec community with many questions. Below are our three biggest ones.

An unexplained gap. Gen. C.Q. BROWN, chair of the Joint Chiefs of staff, learned of Austin’s condition last Tuesday, just one day after Austin’s New Year’s Day hospitalization at Walter Reed. But it took Pentagon Chief of Staff KELLY MAGSAMEN until Thursday to inform Deputy Defense Secretary KATHLEEN HICKS and national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN, who shortly thereafter briefed Biden.

Magsamen was “unable to make notifications” until then because she was sick, DOD spokesperson Maj. Gen. PAT RYDER told reporters (three other U.S. officials confirmed her illness). On Monday, Ryder added a new wrinkle: he, Magsamen and Pentagon public affairs chief CHRIS MEAGHER were informed of Austin’s situation on Tuesday — leading to a two-day gap before they told others.

Which leads us to…

How Austin’s team operates. If those three people knew, why did they fail to inform Hicks or the White House? If it was really up to Magsamen, well, she has a deputy and other team members.

A DOD official, like others granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue, said Magsamen is known for answering emails “at all hours” regardless of her condition or where she is. And if she truly was so sick that she couldn’t work, at least Austin’s senior military assistant or the deputy chief of staff could’ve texted somebody.

This is all a bit troubling because Hicks was performing the duties of the defense secretary off and on during her vacation in Puerto Rico. Not until three days after Austin’s hospitalization did she know why she was serving those functions.

Questions are also swirling about how what goes on in DOD’s top office. Do Austin-related communications to the rest of the Pentagon and administration stop if Magsamen is out? That doesn’t seem plausible.

Two other DOD officials said there was a “do not disturb” order for contacting Austin, perhaps leading Pentagon staff to feel no communications should go to them and vice versa. Austin had planned to telework last week and was occasionally taking some hours off.

So…

Who was in charge? The U.S. killed an Iran-backed militia leader in Iraq last week. We’re told the operation was authorized in December and we know Hicks was performing SecDef duties occasionally during that time period.

Was Hicks the de facto defense secretary during that strike? Did she give one of the final sign offs on the operation? And say there was a major retaliation on American forces in the region afterward — would she have to give orders from the beach?

The Biden administration prides itself on not having drama like this. But with each passing day more and more comes out about the Austin ordeal that could make the situation drag out for longer than anyone in the White House or the Pentagon would like.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

 
The Inbox

NEW PHASE NOW: Israeli officials said today that its military has begun a new, less intense phase of fighting in Gaza, following weeks of pressure from the U.S. and international community to scale down its devastating invasion.

“The war shifted a stage,” Rear Adm. DANIEL HAGARI told The New York Times’ PATRICK KINGSLEY, saying that it now involved fewer ground troops and airstrikes. “But the transition will be with no ceremony … It’s not about dramatic announcements.”

His statement coincides with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN’s third day of intense diplomatic efforts in the region aimed at keeping the war from spreading throughout the Middle East. Blinken’s itinerary today included talks with United Arab Emirates leader SHEIKH MOHAMMED BIN ZAYED and later Saudi Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN.

He held similar meetings in Qatar, Jordan, Turkey and Greece over the weekend, during which he also discussed the future of Gaza after the war.

But Blinken’s efforts to contain the war are complicated by militant groups in the region like Yemen’s Houthis and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah. Today, the latter group said one of its commanders was killed in a strike in southern Lebanon, some nine miles from Israel’s border, The New York Times’ EUAN WARD, ISABEL KERSHNER and ANDRÉS MARTÍNEZ report.

Both Israel and Hezbollah haven’t ruled out an escalation in fighting. Last week, Hezbollah head HASSAN NASRALLAH said the group is not afraid of all-out war. On Sunday, Lt. Gen. HERZL HALEVI, the Israeli military’s chief of staff, said they’ll keep the pressure on Hezbollah. If that fails, “we will get to another war.”

What’s more, Israel is increasingly carrying out strikes in Syria on cargo trucks, infrastructure and people involved with Iran’s weapons pipeline to its proxies, six people with direct knowledge told Reuters’ LAILA BASSAM, SULEIMAN AL-KHALIDI and MAYA GEBEILY. Israel has struck targets in Syria for years, but the latest wave of attacks are much deadlier and more frequent — a significant shift in its operations, the people said.

"They used to fire warning shots — they'd hit near the truck, our guys would get out of the truck, and then they'd hit the truck," a commander in the regional alliance backing Syria told Reuters, talking about Israeli raids on Hezbollah arms transfers before Oct. 7. "Now that's over … They bomb everyone directly. They bomb to kill."

Read: The U.S. is dealing with an Israeli leader who’s losing control by our own NAHAL TOOSI

PROBING THE PROBE: Polish officials have been reluctant to cooperate with the international investigation into the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage and have failed to disclose potentially crucial evidence, European investigators told The Wall Street Journal’s BOJAN PANCEVSKI.

It’s long been thought that Ukraine may have launched the attack on the natural gas pipelines, which ran under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany, from Polish territory. Warsaw’s lack of cooperation has made it difficult to establish whether the sabotage happened with or without the former government’s knowledge, senior officials told WSJ.

Investigators are hoping that Warsaw’s new government, which took office in December, will be more open to helping out than previous officials who were “slow to provide information and withheld key evidence about the alleged saboteurs’ movements on Polish soil,” WSJ writes.

IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.

 

POLITICO AT CES® 2024: We are going ALL On at CES 2024 with a special edition of the POLITICO Digital Future Daily newsletter. The CES-focused newsletter will take you inside the most powerful tech event in the world, featuring revolutionary products that cut across verticals, and insights from industry leaders that are shaping the future of innovation. The newsletter runs from Jan. 9-12 and will focus on the public policy-related aspects of the gathering. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of the show.

 
 
ELECTION 2024

TRUMP: FIRE AUSTIN: Former President DONALD TRUMP has weighed into the Austin saga, calling on Biden to fire his defense secretary in a Truth Social post Sunday night.

“Failed Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin should be fired immediately for improper professional conduct and dereliction of duty,” Trump said, echoing a line former Vice President MIKE PENCE used earlier in the day on CNN. “He has performed poorly, and should have been dismissed long ago.”

The drama now gives Trump a fresh attack line on Biden, who he has often painted as aloof and not fully in control of his administration. Biden’s retorts have always been that Trump’s years were defined by chaos — but the weekend’s events take a little bite out of that argument.

Keystrokes

‘YOU BEAR YOUR RESPONSIBILITY’: Flight information display screens at a Lebanese airport were hacked to display messages deriding Hezbollah on Sunday, The Record’s DARYNA ANTONIUK reports.

A message at the Beirut-Rafic Al Hariri International Airport accused the Iran-backed group of dragging Lebanon into Israel’s war with Hamas: “You bear your responsibility and its consequences, Hezbollah,” part of the message read.

Hackers also sent messages to passengers on behalf of Middle East Airlines, which the company confirmed were fake. Two domestic hacking groups are thought to be behind the attack, though one of them denied involvement.

 

Tune in on Wednesday, Jan. 10, as POLITICO explores Taiwan's upcoming presidential election. Hear from our panel on the potential outcomes to the race and the profound implications for U.S.-China relations depending on who wins. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
The Complex

ON SECOND THOUGHT: Germany's decision to allow the sale of Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets to Saudi Arabia was made due to the Israel-Hamas war and the Kingdom’s attitude shift toward Israel, a government spokesperson told our own CALEB LARSON, HANS VON DER BURCHARD and LAURA KAYALI today.

Saudi Arabia bought 72 Eurofighters in 2007 from BAE Systems for approximately $5.6 billion, and Riyadh wants another 48 fighters. However, Germany blocked further deliveries of the fighter due to Saudi Arabia's role in the Yemen civil war and the 2018 murder of Saudi journalist JAMAL KHASHOGGI.

The policy shift was made Sunday by German Foreign Minister ANNALENA BAERBOCK while in Israel, and the spokesperson cited Saudi Arabia’s “very constructive attitude toward Israel” as a reason for the change of mind. On Sunday, Baerbock also noted how “the world, especially here in the Middle East, has become a completely different place” since Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack.

On the Hill

TOPLINE DEAL: House and Senate leaders on Sunday clinched a deal they hope will finally unlock a full year of government funding.

Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) note that the defense portion stays the same: The deal sets fiscal 2024 defense funding at $886 billion, equal to Biden's budget request and the debt ceiling package hammered out by Biden and Republicans.

The big win came for Democrats, who secured nearly $773 billion in non-defense funding, a total that counts tens of billions of dollars agreed to alongside the debt limit package.

The bipartisan deal is already inflaming tensions with the hard right in the House, which pushed Speaker MIKE JOHNSON to pursue drastic spending cuts. It means any spending deal will require considerable Democratic support to pass the House, and will likely mean concessions to them in the spending bills to win their votes.

House and Senate appropriators have limited time to put pen to paper on the deal. Funding for many federal agencies expires on Jan. 19. The Pentagon funding runs out on Feb. 2.

 

Advertisement Image

 
Broadsides

BLIMEY! China’s intelligence agency said today that it had detained the head of a foreign consulting agency who was spying on Beijing for the British government, The New York Times’ DAISUKE WAKABAYASHI reports.

A consultant with the surname Huang was caught collecting China-related intel for MI6, Britain’s intelligence agency, according to China’s Ministry of State Security. Beijing alleges that MI6 recruited and trained Huang, who’s from an unspecified “third country,” and gave him “special spy equipment.”

British officials declined to comment on the report to the Times, citing a longstanding practice on intelligence matters.

FRANCIS’ FURY: POPE FRANCIS denounced the killing of civilians around the world in a speech today, delivering a warning to aggressor nations, our own PIERRE EMMANUEL NGENDAKUMANA reports.

“In a context where it appears that the distinction between military and civil objectives is no longer respected, there is no conflict that does not end up in some way indiscriminately striking the civilian population,” he said, adding, “the events in Ukraine and Gaza are clear proof of this.”

Only five doctors remain at one of the few remaining medical facilities in Gaza, the head of the World Health Organization warned on Sunday night, pleading for the hospital to be spared from the fighting.

Transitions

KEMBA WALDEN, the Biden administration’s former acting national cyber director, is taking the helm of a brand-new cybersecurity institute at venture capital firm Paladin Capital Group, our friends at Weekly Cybersecurity scoop.

MARIA ANGELA HOLGUIN CUELLAR was appointed as U.N. Secretary-General ANTÓNIO GUTERRES’ personal envoy on Cyprus. She previously served as Colombia’s foreign affairs minister.

LUKA IGNAC has been promoted to be assistant director of the Europe Center at the Atlantic Council.

What to Read

MARK LEONARD, Foreign Affairs: China’s game in Gaza

FRANK SOBCHAK, War On The Rocks: Remaking mistakes in Gaza

ROSE GOTTEMOELLER and MICHAEL RYAN, Foreign Policy: Ukraine has a pathway to victory

Tomorrow Today

The Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Japan Institute of International Affairs, 9 a.m.: 2024 U.S.-Japan security seminar

Washington Post Live, 11 a.m.: Investing in the future and governance of artificial intelligence

The Center for Strategic and International Studies Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, 11:30 a.m.: The state of DOD AI and autonomy policy

The Advanced Technology Academic Research Center's Insider Risk Working Group, 1:30 p.m.: The use of artificial intelligence in insider risk programs

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who doesn’t know the answer to anything.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is a mystery wrapped in an enigma cloaked in existential wonder.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

 
 

Follow us on Twitter

Alex Ward @alexbward

 

Follow us

Follow us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Instagram Listen on Apple Podcast
 

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings

This email was sent to by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

| Privacy Policy | Terms of Service

More emails from POLITICO's National Security Daily