|
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  Secretary of State Antony Blinken stepped onto the forum’s main stage on Wednesday to discuss how the Biden administration navigated a turbulent world. | Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt DAVOS, Switzerland — After a long week running around the Magic Mountain chasing political elites, Alex noticed a stark difference in the atmosphere from his trip last year: Biden administration officials and U.S. lawmakers were in a defensive crouch. Day after day at the World Economic Forum, top Biden administration officials faced questions about the political tussle over providing more aid to Ukraine, congressional polarization, the optics of supporting Israel despite the suffering of Palestinians and a growing bombing campaign against the Houthis in Yemen. And day after day, they had to reassure foreign counterparts that the U.S. had everything under control, that these were complicated times but nothing America and its allies couldn’t handle. When American officials were in this high-society ski town last year, they boasted about how Western support put Ukraine on the front foot against Russia and how investments in clean energy made the U.S. more competitive — even if it led to a major-but-temporary spat with Europeans. The talk of Davos wasn’t about what was wrong with America, but what was right. Not this time. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN stepped onto the forum’s main stage on Wednesday to discuss how the Biden administration navigated a turbulent world. Then The New York Times’ TOM FRIEDMAN asked him: “Do Jewish lives matter more than Palestinian and Muslim lives?” No, the top American diplomat answered, arguing the U.S. has pushed Israel to minimize civilian harm in Gaza even as it supported the retaliation against Hamas. That moment was illustrative of the defensive tone U.S. officials were forced to take this week as they sought to explain the fractured state of U.S. politics and competing visions of its foreign policy. Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.), a member of the seven-lawmaker congressional delegation at the forum, admitted he and his colleagues had to console global leaders about debates back home, namely on the legislative wrangling over $61 billion for Ukraine’s forces, and the possible return of DONALD TRUMP to the Oval Office. But, the confidant of President JOE BIDEN added, there was no reason to grumble about the U.S., not least because of its advances in artificial intelligence and closer partnerships with allies. “I feel more optimistic about America's place in the world,” Blinken said. Not everyone feels that way. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY complained in a leaked off-record session about the foul state of American politics. Others expressed clear concern about Washington’s trajectory, and what adversaries such as Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN would do if it doesn’t stay the course. “We need the U.S. I'm not even starting to think about the scenarios that would change the posture of the United States,” said GABRIELIUS LANDSBERGIS, Lithuania’s foreign minister. “That will just fuel the mayhem that Putin started immediately, and then probably would lead to more war, to more instability, and to more costs.” Read Alex’s full story.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | BIDEN’S BIBI CALL: Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU today for the first time in nearly a month about the war in Gaza and the potential for a postwar Palestinian state. The conversation follows Netanyahu’s rejection of creating an independent Palestinian nation once the fighting in the Gaza Strip concludes (scroll down to On the Hill for more on that), though the White House contends the timing of the call was coincidental. “The president still believes in the promise and the possibility of a two-state solution. He recognizes that it’s going to take a lot of hard work. It’s going to take a lot of leadership there in the region, particularly, on both sides of the issue and the United States stands firmly committed to eventually seeing that outcome,” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said at the White House briefing. LEBANON BORDER WORRIES: U.S. officials are working to avert a full-scale war in Lebanon a month after Israel told Washington it would escalate its fight with Hezbollah if a long-term border agreement can’t be reached, The Washington Post’s SARAH DADOUCH and JOHN HUDSON report. Hezbollah has been launching rockets at Israel since October in protest of its military operations in Gaza, stoking fears in the West that the skirmishes could expand into a wider conflict. But Israel is trying to get an agreement to ease tensions at the border by the end of January, a Western diplomat and three Lebanese officials told the Post. A senior U.S. official told the Post that Israel hasn’t given a “hard deadline” for when it would escalate attacks on the militants if an agreement isn’t reached, but said the window for negotiations is narrowing. “The Israeli position is that we prefer a diplomatic solution, and if a diplomatic solution will not be possible, we will have to act on our own,” LIOR HAIAT, an Israeli foreign ministry spokesperson, told the Post. Meanwhile, as Israel winds down its operation in northern Gaza, the Palestinian Red Crescent accused its military of using drones to attack a hospital in Khan Younis today, Reuters reports. The rescue agency said gunfire from the drones injured Palestinians at al-Amal Hospital and the agency's base. MISSILE MONEY: As American warships burn through expensive missiles against Houthi targets in the Red Sea and Yemen, lawmakers, lobbyists and the Navy are angling to use a multibillion-dollar national security supplemental to replenish the military’s inventory of munitions, our own JOE GOULD, LEE HUDSON, CONNOR O'BRIEN and PAUL McLEARY report. The move further raises the stakes for the supplemental, which has seen a months-long, partisan fight over funding for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and the border. While a desire for munitions funding is bipartisan, the high level of wrangling between the parties means that including it in the supplemental isn't a sure thing. The conflict in the Middle East has rapidly intensified in recent weeks, far beyond when Biden submitted his $100 billion-plus aid proposal for Ukraine and Israel in October. And the effort to suppress Houthi attacks, in which the U.S. is using multimillion-dollar systems to shoot down cheap drones and missiles, is the latest fight that lawmakers worry could divert resources from deterring a potential future conflict with China over Taiwan. "We're looking — one of the parts of the supplemental is to make sure we have the rounds we need, whether it's [the Long Range Anti-Ship Missile] or possibly things like Tomahawk that we have for the Western Pacific," Sen. MARK KELLY (D-Ariz.), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, told Paul. "And that is a capability we would need if we ever got in a conflict with China." LET'S TALK: With a mind hazy from all the Davos partying, Alex forgot one more item from the Semafor interview with Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. OKSANA MARKAROVA. Our colleagues reported that China snubbed Ukraine's desire for a meeting while delegations from both countries were in Switzerland. So Alex asked what it would take to get Beijing at the table. "We will talk to everyone," Markarova said. "If China truly believes in territorial integrity and sovereignty … then of course they should be supporting it now." No country benefits from siding with Russia because it has nothing to offer the world, Markarova continued. The courtship of China continues. Also in Davos, Ukrainian Foreign Minister DMYTRO KULEBA revealed that Kyiv aims to set up a call between Zelenskyy and Chinese leader XI JINPING. It's unclear if the chat would work, however, as Beijing has supported Moscow publicly and privately, including with materials that have military use. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the global national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Speaking with Alex at Davos, Lithuanian Foreign Minister GABRIELIUS LANDSBERGIS said he’s a fan of drinking tea at home … and definitely not at the airport. (An apparent reference to Russian opposition leader ALEXEI NAVALNY’s painful experience on a plane after sipping a cup of hot leaf water that had been poisoned.) We’ll stick to coffee (preferably Dunkin’ Donuts for us Massholes) at the terminal. Į sveikatą, sir! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | TRUMP’S INVITE TO UKRAINE: Zelenskyy invited Trump to Kyiv — on the condition that he can secure a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia within 24 hours, our own ANDREW McDONALD reports. Trump has boasted that, if he were president, he could end the war immediately by insisting Zelenskyy and Putin agree to a settlement, insisting he has a good relationship with both leaders. Trump, during his political career, has repeatedly gushed over Putin, who launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. If Trump can promise to do so — which is highly, highly unlikely — he is welcome in Kyiv “on any day I am here,” Zelenskyy said in an interview set to be aired today with U.K. broadcaster Channel 4 News.
| | SHOW ME THE BLUEPRINTS: Kyiv’s intelligence service confirmed today that Ukrainian hackers conducted a cyberattack on Russia’s military and stole information about its construction plans, The New Voice of Ukraine reports. Hackers from the “Blackjack” group infiltrated Moscow’s Main Military Construction Directorate for Special Projects and downloaded 1.2 TB of data. According to DropBox, that’s enough storage to hold hundreds of thousands of photos, 250 movies or 6.5 million document pages. The information was sent to Ukraine’s military before hackers wiped Russia’s directorate of the data, according to the outlet.
| | KIM’S SUB TEST: North Korea claims it conducted an “underwater nuclear weapons system” test today, an ominous sign in the escalating tensions with its southern neighbor and Washington, Reuters’ HYONHEE SHIN reports. Pyongyang said it tested a “Haeil 5-23” system that it has been developing in the Sea of Japan, the state-owned Korean Central News Agency reported. It appears to be a new model of a nuclear-capable underwater attack drone that the regime said it tested two times last year. The test was a result of recent joint drills between the United States, South Korea and Japan that have angered Pyongyang, which has threatened retaliation and officially stated that it doesn’t seek reunification with Seoul any longer. SOS: The U.S. wants to make a deal with Japan in which the country’s shipyards would overhaul and maintain U.S. Navy warships to stay prepared for a potential conflict in the region, Reuters’ JOHN GEDDIE and TIM KELLY report. "China watches what ships are coming in and out. It is not like this is a secret, they know what's happening. So therefore, they take an evaluation of your deterrence," U.S. Ambassador to Japan RAHM EMANUEL told reporters. Using Japanese shipyards would ease the burden on U.S. shipyards that are facing lengthy maintenance backlogs, he said. It would also allow the U.S. to focus on shipbuilding to expand its fleet. ICYMI — ‘Please guys, wake up’: European leaders push Biden, Congress on Ukraine, by our own PAUL McLEARY
| | | |   | | | | | BASHING BIBI: Democratic lawmakers are angry with Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU for rejecting the idea of creating an independent Palestinian nation after fighting in the Gaza Strip ends, JOE GOULD and Matt report. “I think people are at the end of their ropes with the Netanyahu coalition … which includes pretty right-wing extremists,” Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) told Joe. “It’s pretty clear that Netanyahu is listening much more to the extremists in his government than the president of the United States and the Biden administration.” Van Hollen is spearheading an amendment to the multibillion-dollar national security supplemental to mandate the president ensure that countries receiving U.S. military assistance, including Israel, use the weapons in accordance with U.S. law, international humanitarian law and the laws of armed conflict. He announced today that the number of Democratic co-sponsors for the amendment had grown from a dozen to 18. In a statement today, Sen. TAMMY DUCKWORTH (D-Ill.) said she was “appalled” by Netanyahu’s remarks. The prime minister’s opposition to a two-state solution won’t keep his country safe, she added. “He is effectively ruling out a sustainable, peaceful outcome in the long-term,” Duckworth said. “The only viable path to lasting peace is establishing a Palestinian nation-state alongside Israel.” A group of 15 Jewish House Democrats also criticized the prime minister’s comments on Friday. “We strongly disagree with the Prime Minister. A two-state solution is the path forward,” according to a statement from the lawmakers, which included Reps. JAKE AUCHINCLOSS of Massachusetts, ADAM SCHIFF of California, JAMIE RASKIN of Maryland and ELISSA SLOTKIN of Michigan. ‘CHUCK THAT SLEAZEBALL’: Sen. JOHN FETTERMAN (D-Pa.) plans to force a vote next week on his resolution that would bar senators indicted on national security issues from attending classified briefings, he told CNN’s MANU RAJU. The move is aimed at Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), who is facing multiple indictments for allegedly dealing with foreign governments, the latest of which accuses him of acting as a foreign agent on behalf of Qatar. “We should have chucked that sleazeball long ago,” Fetterman told CNN. Read: Dems float a trade: Ukraine-border deal for protecting Johnson, by our own RACHAEL BADE
| | NATO ON ALERT: German Defense Minister BORIS PISTORIUS warned that Putin could attack the NATO alliance in less than a decade, our own NICOLAS CAMUT reports. "We hear threats from the Kremlin almost every day ... so we have to take into account that Vladimir Putin might even attack a NATO country one day," Pistorius told German outlet Der Tagesspiegel in an interview published today. While a Russian attack is not likely "for now," the minister added, "our experts expect a period of five to eight years in which this could be possible."
| | | | — MICHAEL TERRY has been promoted to be chief information officer at the Peace Corps.
| | — JAMIE DETTMER, POLITICO: The two-state solution is dead. Why pretend anymore? — CHRISTOPHER MILLER, Financial Times: ‘Active defense’: how Ukraine plans to survive 2024 — NATAN SACHS, Foreign Affairs: Peace between Israelis and Palestinians remains possible
| | — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: Gaza: The human toll — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: Surveying U.S. and Taiwan experts on what to expect for cross-strait dynamics in 2024 and beyond — The Wilson Center's Global Europe Program, 11 a.m.: Finland's priorities and challenges in 2024 — The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 3:30 p.m.: Transatlantic relations, the role of Germany in the EU, Germany's aid to Ukraine and the impact on Germany of the war between Israel and Hamas: a conversation with German Ambassador ANDREAS MICHAELIS — The Institute of World Politics, 5 p.m.: Examining Turkey, Russia and Iran through the lens of modern warfare and terrorism Thanks to our editor, Dave Brown, who never fails to leave us in a defensive crouch. We also thank our producer, Raymond Rapada, who shields us from his cruelty.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
