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| | | | |  | | By Sam Stein, Alex Thompson and Max Tani | Welcome to POLITICO’s West Wing Playbook, your guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration. With help from Allie Bice. Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Max One need not be a rocket scientist to understand why the historic increase in the price of goods is severely hampering President JOE BIDEN’s standing. When inflation jumps 8.5 percent in the past year, as was announced this morning, it tends to have fairly severe downstream political consequences. It certainly doesn’t pay well to be the guy in charge at that moment. Less clear, however, is why Biden isn’t getting more credit for the jobs market, which itself is making history, though in this case of the positive variety. The main explanation is that whatever gains people are making in wages are being lost by the rise in costs that they’re enduring. But it’s also evident that other, more strictly political factors, are factoring in too. Two weeks ago, we noted that more people thought the U.S. had seen aggregate job losses over the last year than gains, despite the unemployment rate being at 3.6 percent. Though other data show the disconnect isn’t as dire, the numbers suggest there’s been a failure in media coverage and communication strategy on the part of the administration. New numbers from Morning Consult illustrate a third element at play: partisan biases. The poll asked one set of respondents who should be credited for the current labor market. The results were as follows: 41 percent said Biden, 14 percent said DONALD TRUMP, 9 percent said Congress, 6 percent said their governor and 15 percent said “other.” It then asked the same question to an entirely different set of respondents. But before asking, it told those respondents that “431,000 jobs were added in March 2022 to the U.S. labor market … putting the unemployment rate at a new low during the COVID-19 pandemic.” Notably, the numbers shifted: Only 33 percent of respondents credited Biden for the booming labor market, with the rest of the credit being given out virtually along the same lines. So what changed? Republicans stopped crediting Biden when they were informed the market was historically good. Without being given the more detailed description, 58 percent said he was responsible. When given the detailed description, that number plummeted to 38 percent. That type of delta may be expected in an era of hyper-tribalism. But it also illuminates the hurdles the administration faces when it comes to its economics sales job. So too does this other stat from the poll: Democrats were just as likely to credit Biden for the jobs market whether or not they were told how good it was, with 31 percent giving him responsibility in each survey. Or, put another way, even when told that the jobs market was good, Democrats were less likely to credit Biden than Republicans. The Morning Consult survey ran a similar study with regards to inflation. But the data told a slightly different story. Forty-one percent of respondents blamed Biden for the “current cost of goods and services,” compared to 13 percent who blamed Trump, 11 percent who blamed Congress, and 3 percent who blamed governors. But when told that the “consumer prices on goods and services have increased in the past year more than they have in 40 years,” those numbers barely budged. That was true when broken down by party line. Republicans were just as likely to put it on Biden’s shoulders when offered that description than when they weren’t (72 percent, versus 71 percent). So too were Democrats (17 percent, versus 15 percent). What this suggests is that views of inflation are more hardened than views of the job market. And that, in turn, is not particularly great for the White House. Top Biden officials have tried a variety of tactics so far, from calling inflation transitory, to pinning it on corporate greed, to blaming VLADIMIR PUTIN and the war in Ukraine for the rise in energy prices and, today, arguing that Republicans are just fine with it. But Democrats in the trenches on this issue don’t think that the White House can just message its way out of it. Action from the Fed is the main instrument, but policy responses matter too. ZACH MOLLER , director of the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way's economic program, noted that Biden’s been focused on supply chain issues and has tried to tackle gas prices by opening up the strategic petroleum reserve. But more is needed, he argues, including a reconciliation bill that “has deficit reduction, fights climate change and includes some other piece or pieces focused on the costs families face.” “Voters need to know Biden cares about how inflation is affecting them and so he needs to be constantly doing what he can,” Moller added. TEXT US — Are you a Washington Post reporter conflicted by the WHCA dinner weekend festivities? We want to hear from you (we’ll keep you anonymous). Or if you think we missed something in today’s edition, let us know and we may include it tomorrow. Email us at westwingtips@politico.com or you can text/Signal/Wickr/WhatsApp Alex at 8183240098 or Max at 7143455427.
| | | | DON'T MISS ANYTHING FROM THE 2022 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO is excited to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider" newsletter featuring exclusive coverage and insights from the 25th annual Global Conference. This year's event, May 1-4, brings together more than 3,000 of the world’s most influential leaders, including 700+ speakers representing more than 80 countries. "Celebrating the Power of Connection" is this year's theme, setting the stage to connect influencers with the resources to change the world with leading experts and thinkers whose insight and creativity can implement that change. Whether you're attending in person or following along from somewhere else in the world, keep up with this year's conference with POLITICO’s special edition “Global Insider” so you don't miss a beat. Subscribe today. | | | | | | | | From the University of Virginia’s Miller Center Which future president's political opponents predicted his demise saying, “This is a peculiar fellow. I really think he's psychotic. He's an able man, but he's nuts”? (Answer at the bottom.)
| | | BIDEN GOES THERE — Speaking in Iowa today, where he announced that the U.S. will lift the ban on summertime sales of gasoline that contain 15 percent ethanol, the president once again pointed the finger at Putin, this time declaring the situation in Ukraine a genocide. “Your family budget, your ability to fill up your tank, none of it should hinge on whether a dictator declares war and commits genocide a half a world away,” Biden said. The line was notable because genocide is specifically a word that his White House has avoided using. Just over a week ago, National Security Adviser JAKE SULLIVAN had the following to say: “Based on what we have seen so far, we have seen atrocities. We have seen war crimes. We have not seen a level of systematic deprivation of life of the Ukrainian people to rise to the level of genocide.” Watch to see if the White House clarifies this latest Biden comment (as they have done in the past) or let’s it stand. WAPO, NO GO — The Washington Post is calling off its planned White House Correspondents Dinner reception. In a memo to staff on Tuesday, publisher FRED RYAN and top editor SALLY BUZBEE said that the event had been canceled due to Covid concerns. “As much as we would have loved to see everyone, in light of what appears to be an increase in Covid-19 transmission, we did not want to put our friends and colleagues at further risk,” they said. After nearly 100 people tested positive following the Gridiron Club dinner earlier this month, there have been increasing concerns about whether the White House Correspondents Association Dinner could serve as a prime venue for spreading Covid. The Daily Beast, which normally hosts a pre-dinner reception on the roof of its D.C. bureau, also announced on Tuesday that it would not be hosting its party this year, and would be donating money to journalists in Ukraine instead. Editor in chief TRACY CONNOR told West Wing Playbook the decision was made weeks ago before the recent wave, and was inspired more by the outlet’s decision to put the money to better use supporting Ukraine than concerns about Covid. The WHCA announced on Sunday that it was implementing a vaccination mandate in addition to the testing requirement that was already in place. But there are some observers who feel that the concerns are overblown. As Puck’s Peter Hamby pointed out , D.C. has a “70% vaccination rate, a lower case rate than February and hospitalizations at -22% over the last two weeks. Who is this for?” FOUR MORE YEARS?: Asked by GAYLE KING this morning about whether her brother should run again in 2024, first sister VALERIE BIDEN OWENS said “sure, yes.” While Biden Owens wrote in her new book that she was wary of a 2020 run, she told the CBS Mornings anchor that in 2024 her brother is “the right person, at the right time, for all the right reasons.” WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: This tweet thread from BEN CASSELMAN. Well, actually, a tweet within the tweet thread ; one that focuses on how “core” inflation slowed down in March even as consumer prices overall went up 8.5 percent from a year earlier — the fastest growth in more than 40 years. A few White House folks shared it today. Their underlying takeaway: the headlines are bad but maybe the situation overall isn’t quite as bad, just the beginning of the end of the bad. WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN’T WANT YOU TO READ: This Twitter thread and Wall Street Journal opinion piece from JASON FURMAN, the former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Obama administration and occasional critic of the Biden administration (who sometimes annoys them). “U.S. inflation remains *much* higher than euro area inflation,” he wrote on Twitter. “The US has consistently been ~4 [percentage points] higher than Europe. That is a HUGE difference.” In the Journal he added that, “A hot economy is surely better than a cold one, but the costs of an overheating economy might be larger than policy makers have appreciated….Next time, let’s remember that it’s better to heat the economy by putting one log on the fire at a time instead of throwing them all on at once.” On a more optimistic note, he said the data offered some hope that the “worst may now be behind us.” | | | NEW TO THE TWITTERS — PHIL GORDON, Vice President KAMALA HARRIS’s newly tapped national security adviser, launched his official Twitter profile Tuesday. Gordon has served as the vice president’s deputy national security adviser since she took office. It was announced he would replace NANCY MCELDOWNEY, Harris’s former national security adviser, in late March. PROFILES: U.S. Trade Representative KATHERINE TAI got a mini-profile/write-up in Vanity Fair today.
| | | REMAINING CAUTIOUS — Biden administration officials are scrambling to figure out the best way to respond to Russia’s alleged use of chemical weapons, attempting handle it in a way that—if confirmed—keeps Biden’s promise of an “in kind” response without escalating the conflict, our ALEXANDER WARD and JONATHAN LEMIRE report. While officials are proceeding with caution because the use remains unverified, people tell Alex and Jonathan scenario-planning exercises on the possible use of chemical weapons have begun behind the scenes. Notably, military options in Ukraine still remain off the table. Instead, some have suggested additional sanctions on Russia or giving Ukraine additional, advanced weaponry. GOING AFTER THE DAILY — Today’s episode of NYT’s “The Daily” podcast zeroed in on the president’s shift in climate change policy, noting specifically that the war in Ukraine marked a dialing down of his ambitious climate goals. The White House publicly hit back at the hit podcast. VEDANT PATEL, a White House assistant press secretary, wrote a lengthy twelve-tweet thread dispelling the episode . “While all the hot takes are busy retreating from the facts, @POTUS is building a clean energy economy that reduces emissions, advances environmental justice, and creates good-paying, union jobs,” Patel wrote in his first tweet. The Times did not respond to a request for comment.
| | | | INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | Saudi state-funded TV aired a sketch mocking Biden as U.S.-Saudi relations hit new low (Insider’s Bill Bostock) Cabinet members hit the road for Rural Infrastructure Tour (RFD TV) The U.S. State Department orders nonemergency workers and their families to leave Shanghai (NYT’s John Yoon)
| | | Biden received the President’s Daily Brief. He also spoke with British Prime Minister BORIS JOHNSON about Ukraine and Russia, according to a vague read-out of the call. He traveled to Menlo, Iowa this afternoon, where he visited POET Bioprocessing and delivered remarks about inflation and infrastructure investments in rural communities.
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President Joe Biden greets Rep. Cindy Axne, D-Iowa, as Des Moines Mayor Frank Cownie watches | Carolyn Kaster/AP Photo | He heads back to Washington, D.C. this evening, and is scheduled to arrive around 8:40 p.m.
| | | Harris traveled to Philadelphia, where she delivered remarks about “worker organizing and empowerment” at the Sheet Metal Workers Local 19 Training Center. Labor Secretary MARTY WALSH also joined the vice president. She travels back to Washington, D.C. this evening.
| | | ROB FLAHERTY's first political gig fell right into his lap — or should we say, car? The now director of digital strategy at the White House was giving then-Ithaca, N.Y. city councilmember SVANTE MYRICK a ride to an event back in 2011, when Myrick hit him up with an offer, according to a 2015 piece by The Ithaca Voice. It began like this: "Hey, quick question … I think I’m running for mayor.” That was convincing enough for Flaherty. He worked as Myrick's communications director for his campaign — helping him become the city's youngest and first mayor of color.
| | | RICHARD NIXON was the subject of a conversation between PAT BROWN and President JOHN F. KENNEDY on November 7, 1962, shortly after Brown defeated Nixon for the governorship of California. This was two years after Nixon’s loss to Kennedy in the 1960 presidential election, leading Brown to say, “I don't see how he can recover” before adding his disparaging assessment of Nixon. Nixon himself seemed to agree that his career was over, having told the press, “Just think how much you’re going to be missing. You don’t have Nixon to kick around anymore.” For more on Nixon and Kennedy, visit millercenter.org. A CALL OUT — Do you have a more difficult trivia question? Send us your best question on the presidents with a citation and we may feature it. Edited by Sam Stein | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
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