President JOE BIDEN has said he intends to run for reelection in 2024. If he doesn’t, however, Vice President KAMALA HARRIS is best positioned to take the party’s mantle. That’s not just because she’s currently second in line for the presidency. It’s because — despite a first year with bad headlines and some unforced errors — she has amassed a significant early lead among Black voters who have been the decisive constituency in the 2008, 2016, and 2020 Democratic nomination fights. A review of recent polling tells the story. A POLITICO/Morning Consult poll from December measured Harris’ support among Black voters at 52 percent in a Biden-free 2024 primary. Her nearest competitor was Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.) at 7 percent (Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG was at 3 percent). Another poll last month from the Republican firm, Echelon Insights, pegged Harris’ support among Black voters at 53 percent, with Georgia gubernatorial candidate STACEY ABRAMS registering the second highest support level at 13 percent. An Abrams spokesperson pointed us to past campaign statements refuting the idea she’d run for president in 2024. It’s a striking turnaround from 2019 when Harris struggled to win over Black voters during her own presidential campaign, one that gives the VP a bedrock Democratic constituency at a time of growing chatter about the uncertain future of the Democratic Party's leadership. After reviewing these surveys, Democratic pollster CORNELL BELCHER said that he expects Biden to run for re-election. He also cautioned that polls this early ought to be taken with “a huge nugget of salt.” Still, Belcher, the author of “A Black Man in the White House,” said: “I am amazed at how she's running away from the field with African American voters this early on, because I have not seen it.” Noting that BARACK OBAMA didn’t have these types of numbers against HILLARY CLINTON during much of his 2008 bid, he added: “You don't see this. You don't see this often…. It is clear that the work that she's been doing is beginning to give her credibility and likability with African American voters in a way that no one else in the field has right now.” Belcher speculated that Harris’ support could be from a combination of her outreach and a backlash to being on the receiving end of near-constant criticism from conservatives. “African Americans are seeing this and rallying around their leaders,” he said. Democratic strategists note that the Black vote may be even more determinative in 2024 if the party follows through on scrapping the Iowa caucuses, which are overwhelmingly made up of white voters. While Harris’ primary polling strength is being powered by Black Democrats, it is not confined to one constituency. Over the past 12 months, there have been 27 polls that tested a 2024 Democratic primary matchup that didn’t include Biden’s name as a candidate, according to the FiveThirtyEight database. Harris was the leader in 21 of them. The remaining six only had former First Lady MICHELLE OBAMA ahead and she has been famously uninterested. The poll last month from Echelon Insights had Harris at 30 percent support. That’s hardly a juggernaut on the surface, but it’s nearly three times the backing of the second-place candidate, Buttigieg, with 11 percent. Harris’ office declined to comment. TEXT US — ARE YOU KRISTINA KVIEN, Biden’s acting ambassador to Ukraine? We know you’re probably a little busy, but we want to hear from you (we’ll keep you anonymous). Or if you think we missed something in today’s edition, let us know and we may include it tomorrow. Email us at westwingtips@politico.com or text/Signal/Wickr/WhatsApp Alex at 8183240098 or Max at 7143455427.
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