First Stop: Delaware?

From: POLITICO West Wing Playbook - Tuesday Aug 02,2022 10:13 pm
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West Wing Playbook

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As top Democratic officials considered how to restructure the party’s primary schedule for 2024, the White House offered a bit of private advice: kick the can down the road.

White House officials let it be known to the Democratic National Committee they supported delaying a final decision until after the midterms, fearful that anything the committee decided would upset Democrats in key states leading up to the elections.

“We have so many people in our party that are focused on 2024 and they can’t even focus on what’s in front of us and that’s 2022,” said one Democrat close to the process.

A Biden adviser said that the decision to delay was made by the Rules and Bylaws committee, not the White House. But two people familiar with the exchange said their preference was made clear, with one adding that President JOE BIDEN simply had been unable to devote much time to the matter. This past week, the DNC decided it would make a calendar update after the midterms.

The choice of which states will lead the 2024 Democratic primary is not an insignificant one for Biden as he plans a re-election campaign amid consistent discontent from within the ranks and questions about his political viability. It’s also a major concern for the party’s Senate candidates, particularly those running in New Hampshire and Nevada (and to a lesser degree down-ballot candidates in Iowa) who could see voter enthusiasm dip if their states are bumped back.

The party is trying to narrow down a list of 17 states and territories vying for one of the first four or five spots. Its choice will not just matter in 2024, but likely for many elections to come — just as the DNC’s decision to make Iowa the first state in 1972 held for decades. (It is widely expected Iowa’s reign will come to an end in 2024 after its debacle reporting caucus totals led to a delay in results in 2020).

The lobbying campaign has gotten intense.

“I’m getting swag!” explained DONNA BRAZILE, one of the members of the DNC panel determining state order. She said that she’s partial to southern states but that hasn't stopped others from trying. “I have maple syrup from Michigan. I have popcorn from Illinois. I have all kinds of trinkets from Nevada. Peanuts from Georgia, too.” She’s been getting so many calls that she implored West Wing Playbook, “Please don’t give out my cell phone number.”

A Biden adviser told us that the president had been updated on the broad number of states expressing interest in the early window, but that he was “laser focused on his agenda and getting out” before the midterms. Even so, two people familiar with the exchanges relayed that the president has on more than one occasion quizzed people in his orbit about the possibility of his home state of Delaware going earlier — even first.

The rationale, according to Delaware’s top public and private boosters, is that it’s small but also diverse, it has a revitalized riverfront to host events and its media market crosses into several other states including Pennsylvania, Maryland, and New Jersey. They also note, repeatedly, that it’s just a two-hour Amtrak ride from Washington.

In Delaware’s own pitch video to the DNC, state Sen. SARAH MCBRIDE made several references to Biden himself and the Amtrak rides he took to and from D.C. for decades. She closed with a quote from the president calling Delaware a “true microcosm of America.”

McBride joked that Delaware is also known as the First State, though “we’d be cool with second, or third or even fourth.” At a June DNC meeting, Delaware Sen. CHRIS COONS was on hand to make the hard sell, along with the state’s governor, JOHN CARNEY.

Coons told party leaders that Delaware has a long history of overseeing “a tight and well-run electoral system.” He also stressed that Delaware was trying to launch itself into the first grouping of states, and not explicitly pushing to lead off. “I do not speak for him, but my gut hunch is that that president would welcome the challenge of demonstrating he could win his home state overwhelmingly,” Coons told the committee.

Were Delaware to actually be chosen as an early primary state, the conventional wisdom would be that Biden would win in a rout — should he run and be challenged in the primary. And there would very well be critics arguing it would be a waste of a choice for that reason. But others involved in the selection process were cooler on the apparent advantages the state would provide its favorite son in a reelect.

“For an incumbent president, having their state early there is no upside and only downside. They run a real risk of being embarrassed — and you can be embarrassed with somebody getting 35 percent of the vote,” ELAINE KAMARCK, the Brookings Institution scholar and delegate expert who has served on the DNC’s Rules Committee since 1997, told us. “If you win your home state, nobody cares. You don’t get any momentum in the later states, which is the whole point in the early states.”

That said, Kamarck acknowledged that the thinking could change if Biden doesn’t run in 2024. Under that scenario, he could very well petition for Delaware to be moved up in the primary calendar as a legacy marker for him.

“There is a case to be made for Delaware,” Kamarck said. “My sense is when we hear from the president that will be very important. Everybody on there is a fan of the president and what he says matters.”

MESSAGE US — Are you JIM CHO, White House director of congressional outreach? We want to hear from you! And we’ll keep you anonymous if you’d like. Or if you think we missed something in today’s edition, let us know and we may include it tomorrow. Email us at westwingtips@politico.com .

MEA CULPA: In Monday’s top, we made a typo. It’s “gutturally,” not “gutterly.” Alex, from his gut, feels dumb about the error.

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POTUS PUZZLER

This one is from Allie. Which president was known for being fairly quiet? So much so, that when a woman betted she could get three words out of him, he responded with two, thereby winning the bet. Bonus points if you can guess which two words!

(Answer at bottom.)

The Oval

RETURN OF THE LOOSE COUGH: Upon testing positive again for Covid-19 over the weekend, the president’s physician, KEVIN O’CONNOR, said Biden’s been feeling well. But Tuesday’s update contained a new symptom: the president has a loose cough . He “remains fever free and in good spirits,” O’Connor added.

DENIM POLITICS: In an interview with Real Simple , First lady JILL BIDEN ducked one of the most consequential and hotly-debated issues of our times: "Skinny jeans — yea or nay?”

Biden’s response, showing both incredible discipline and noncommittal-ness was: “I say all jeans. Whatever you want, whatever you like. Whatever looks good! Whatever feels good!”

Left unclear, where does she come down on cargo shorts?

POST-IT COMMS: The First Lady also told Real Simple that “if I want to get a message to Joe, I put [a Post-It] on his mirror. It may be a nice ‘I missed you’ or 'I hope you get whatever it is you're working on.’"

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: This story by CNN’s BETSY KLEIN about how a group of economists say that Democrats’ latest climate and health spending package would help ease the pressure of inflation and lower costs: “‘These investments will fight inflation and lower costs for American families while setting the stage for strong, stable, and broadly-shared long-term economic growth,’ 126 economists said in a letter sent to congressional leadership Tuesday."

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN’T WANT YOU TO READ: This piece by WaPo’s JACLYN PEISER breaking down a Tuesday report by the New York’s Federal Reserve that shows credit card debt has gone up as Americans navigate inflation. By the numbers: “Credit card balances increased $46 billion in the second quarter, a 5.5 percent increase from the first quarter, and there was also an uptick in new credit card accounts. The 13 percent increase from the second quarter of 2021 to the second quarter of 2022 was the biggest such jump in more than 20 years.”

JUMPING INTO THE MAYORAL RACE: Biden and Vice President KAMALA HARRIS on Tuesday endorsed California Rep. KAREN BASS (D) in the Los Angeles mayoral race , FOX LA’s ELEX MICHAELSON reports. In a joint statement, the president and vice president said they are “eager to continue to partner with her on innovative strategies to reduce homelessness & increase public safety and prosperity. Karen Bass has our friendship & she has earned our respect.”

 

STAY UP TO DATE WITH CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO’s platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android . CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.

 
 
THE BUREAUCRATS

A NEW KIND OF COORDINATOR: The Biden administration on Tuesday announced ROBERT FENTON, who has served as a regional administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency,  will lead White House efforts in combating monkeypox , NYT’s PETER BAKER reports. DEMETRE DASKALAKIS, the director of the CDC’s Division of HIV Prevention, will serve as Fenton’s deputy.

ON THE MOVE: CRISTÓBAL ALEX, the former White House deputy Cabinet secretary who left his post in June, is now a political analyst on MSNBC. He made his first appearance on the network’s “ JOSÉ DÍAZ-BALART Reports” Tuesday morning. Watch it here. 

ALSO: Bloomberg is reporting that TIM WU , the White House’s competition adviser, is expected to leave and return to Columbia Law School, where he teaches antitrust law.

 

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Agenda Setting

NEW AFGHANISTAN NARRATIVE?: Biden world spent the day touting the killing of Ayman al-Zawahri, the leader of al Qaeda, via a drone strike in Kabul, Afghanistan. And as our JONATHAN LEMIRE reports , there is hope among the president’s team that the strike will serve as a bookend of sorts to the much-criticized decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan last August.

Biden’s critics are arguing that al-Zawahri’s presence in Kabul was proof the administration left a vacuum when it pulled out U.S. troops. The White House sees it as vindication of the idea that counter-terrorism operations didn’t rely on continuing America’s 20-year presence in the country.

What We're Reading

A Key 9/11 Plotter Is Dead. He Was Already Irrelevant. (The Atlantic’s Graeme Wood)

Biden administration task force reunites 400 migrant families separated under Trump (NBC News’ Julia Ainsley and Jacob Soboroff)

Afghanistan Strike, Pelosi Visit to Taiwan Put Foreign Policy Back on Center Stage for Biden (WSJ’s Tarini Parti and Ken Thomas)

 

INTRODUCING POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY .

 
 
POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER

President CALVIN COOLIDGE was notoriously a man of few words.

According to the White House Historical Association , “a young woman sitting next to Coolidge at a dinner party confided to him she had bet she could get at least three words of conversation from him. Without looking at her he quietly retorted, ‘You lose.’”

A CALL OUT — Do you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents with a citation and we may feature it.

Edited by Eun Kyung Kim and Sam Stein.

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