So… what’s the deal with Kansas?

From: POLITICO West Wing Playbook - Friday Aug 05,2022 08:21 pm
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Kansas’ resounding rejection of a ballot initiative to end a right to an abortion in the state’s constitution has prompted Democrats to optimistically reimagine the midterm election landscape.

But not everyone sees an electoral panacea in running campaigns boldly and explicitly on abortion rights. A number of operatives instead have begun urging a degree of modesty and nuance. They view the results as proof that the party should center the debate on concepts of government overreach and privacy — not abortion access — and more aggressively engage conservative communities and mediums. It’s a view shared by, among others, President JOE BIDEN, people familiar with his thinking said.

“Twitter Democrats should be careful not to interpret the results as a ringing endorsement of their position on abortion,” said KEN BAER, a longtime Democratic operative well regarded inside the White House and a supporter of abortion rights. “Yes, the vote was a repudiation of Republicans' extreme post-Dobbs decision. But, it also was a vote for a pre-Dobbs status quo that was more restrictive than any blue state. To preserve this fundamental right for women nationwide, Democrats will need to seize the huge center on this issue that the GOP left wide open for the taking.”

How aggressively and in what fashion Democrats should engage the abortion wars has been a months-long debate — one that’s caused fissures inside the administration, where, as Bloomberg News reported , aides privately mused that the president has lacked “seemingly any sense of urgency” on the matter. Biden’s posture has been more measured than much of his party’s. Whereas Vice President KAMALA HARRIS’ statement on the Kansas results spoke of a "right to an abortion,” his lauded a "women’s right to choose."

This is a feature not a bug. The (non-universal) belief inside the White House is that the sharpest response to the end of Roe is to talk about deprivation of freedoms and the potential loss of others, from contraception access to marriage rights. The theory is that more people are motivated by fear of being under attack than by a desire to restore. It’s why Biden invokes the specter of a national abortion ban being passed under a GOP-led Congress. Internal polling shows it evokes intense opposition.

Two fundamental questions stem from Kansas: Is it the right read, and how large a difference is there in getting people to oppose anti-abortion candidates and not just anti-abortion ballot measures?

There are no tidy answers. The reproductive rights coalition in the state, Kansans for Constitutional Freedom, emphasized ad nauseum that it was trying to protect the law that existed (which included notable abortion regulations) and maintain limits on government intervention into health decisions. The ads the group ran did not always mention the word abortion (a la Biden himself) and often featured atypical stakeholders: a male doctor, a Christian pastor, a Catholic grandmother. They engaged in intense grassroots organizing .

“Looking at this issue through the lens of personal autonomy or medical privacy, it just resonated much more broadly among Kansas voters across political spectrums,” explained ASHLEY ALL, a spokesperson for the group. “We were willing to have conversations with people who may not have shared all our values but were aligned on the fact that they didn’t want to change the constitution.”

But All also said it was impossible to draw simple lines between what worked in Kansas and what might impact the midterms. Different states demand different approaches as do different types of elections. As Bolts’ DANIEL NICHANIAN notes , abortion rights will be affected this November by everything from additional referendums, to judicial elections, to the composition of law enforcement agencies.

There’s also data to suggest that while reproductive rights groups succeeded in Kansas by bringing in more moderate-minded voters, they also scored big by juicing turnout, presumably among the progressive minded and traditionally apolitical. There was a massive spike in new voter registrants in the state after the Dobbs decision was leaked, which contributed to the 900,000-plus turnout on Tuesday.

And it’s not just people registering to vote either. We asked the progressive candidate recruitment group Run for Something for the data it had around and after the Dobbs decision. MARIA GAMBA, a spokesperson for the group, said within the first three days of the ruling, the organization saw 1,200 registrations. Within the first three weeks, the number jumped to 3,018. Of those folks, 1,268 identify as women, 105 identify as they/them, 999 identify as men and the rest did not offer identifications.

“RFS is on track as of now to have the best recruitment year so far,” she said.

MESSAGE US — Are you JUSTINA GALLEGOS, senior policy advisor at the National Economic Council? We want to hear from you! And we’ll keep you anonymous if you’d like. Or if you think we missed something in today’s edition, let us know and we may include it tomorrow. Email us at westwingtips@politico.com .

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POTUS PUZZLER

This one’s from Allie. Which president was a captain of Yale’s baseball team?

(Answer at the bottom.)

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The Oval

QUARANTINE MACHINE: Has anyone had a more productive bout with Covid? This week probably ranks among the best of Biden’s presidency, all with him cooped up in the White House dealing with a relapse of the virus. Among other things: He announced the killing of al-Qaeda leader AYMAN AL-ZAWAHRI, Democrat senators reached an agreement on a revised climate and prescription drug plan, voters in Kansas beat back efforts to restrict abortion rights, and a China competition bill and a veteran’s health care burn pit bill both passed the Senate. Finally, this morning, the jobs report came out showing 528,000 jobs created in July and the unemployment rate falling to 3.5 percent. Work from home has never worked out so good.

ABOUT THOSE JERBS: Former GEORGE W. BUSH White House and Treasury spokesman TONY FRATTO had a bit of free advice for the Biden administration in the wake of the jobs data. In essence: don’t talk about anything else.

“If I were back at WH or Treasury I'd require every official to use the phrase ‘best jobs market in history’ in every speech and in response to every question, regardless of topic,” he tweeted . “You ask about inflation? I say Jobs. Ukraine? Jobs. Easter Egg Roll? Jobs.”

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN’T WANT YOU TO READ: Once more, about those jobs. This tweet from Obama economist JASON FURMAN throws some cold water on all the trumpeting of good news by noting that it may, in fact, be too good.

“Uncomfortably hot jobs report. 528K jobs added & unemployment rate falls to 3.5%. What worries me re inflation is avg hourly earnings were up at a 5.8% ar in July. June revised to 5.4% (up from 3.8%),” he writes . “The wage moderation we were all discussing last month was simply wrong data.”

Notably, NYT columnist PAUL KRUGMAN, who is a bit more well-regarded inside the White House, echoed these sentiments, too .

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: This counterpoint from ZACH CARTER, presumably addressing this form of wet-blanket-ism.

“Good news is good,” he writes .

KENTUCKY BOUND: The president and first lady JILL BIDEN are set to travel to Kentucky to join Gov. ANDY BESHEAR and first lady BRITAINY BESHEAR and visit families affected by the extreme flooding.

This, of course, assumes he tests negative for Covid, which he did NOT do on Friday, his sixth day of testing positive since his relapse infection.

 

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THE BUREAUCRATS

THE ARC OF HISTORY IS… CHOPPY: Some notable comments from U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD in an interview with Foreign Affairs . She was asked by the magazine’s editor DAN KURTZ-PHELAN: “How do you do your job when much of the world looks at your country and asks some version of, ‘What on earth is going on over there?’”

“Let me be absolutely clear, it does have an impact on our engagements internationally,” she replied. She called Jan. 6 a “coup attempt” and pointed to mass shootings and the “narrative of dysfunction” in the U.S. “People are looking at that and saying how can you tell us how to deal with our internal problems when you can’t deal with your own? But we are dealing with our own problems. And the first step in dealing with the problems, the first step is acknowledging that you have them — and many countries don’t acknowledge those issues. And I think that’s a strength. We know where we need to focus our attention.”

BAGELMANIA: One of D.C.’s arguably best Jewish delis, Call Your Mother, is expanding. The Washingtonian reports that the store will open two spots in Colorado in the spring of 2023.

For those unfamiliar, former Covid Czar JEFF ZIENTS is an investor in the operation. Zients is also oft-rumored as a potential, future chief of staff. Will the booming bagel biz get in the way? Can we get a baker’s dozen — along with a few schmears — shipped to WWPB headquarters please?

FIRST IN WEST WING PLAYBOOK: AMIT JANI is now acting White House liaison at the Department of Homeland Security, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. He most recently was director of the chief information officer action group at the Defense Department and was national AAPI director for the Biden campaign. JAZMIN SELLARS is now special assistant for the White House liaison at DHS, Lippman has also learned. She most recently was special assistant to the secretary of the Air Force.

SAM SALK is now senior adviser to the U.S. Ambassador to the United Kingdom, and will focus on public-private partnerships and sports diplomacy, Lippman has also learned. He most recently was the White House liaison at the State Department. He has worked for Biden since 2015.

 

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Agenda Setting

TRAGIC: An intense thunderstorm swept through the District last night. And, horrifically, two people died after being hit by lightning at Lafayette Park, right in front of the White House. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE mourned their passing in a statement this morning.

“We are saddened by the tragic loss of life after the lightning strike in Lafayette Park,” it read. “Our hearts are with the families who lost loved ones, and we are praying for those still fighting for their lives.”

 

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What We're Reading

I Lived a ‘Frat Party’ Life in the House Where Al Qaeda Chief Was Killed, U.S. Aid Worker Says (Dan Ladden-Hall, The Daily Beast)

Washington and Moscow are ready to negotiate over Griner, officials say (NYT’s Edward Wong and Ivan Nechepurenko)

U.S. Seeks to Reassure Asian Allies as China’s Military Grows Bolder (NYT’s Edward Wong and Damien Cave)

White House summons Chinese ambassador for rebuke on Taiwan response (WaPo’s Yasmeen Abutaleb)

The Oppo Book

LILY ADAMS, assistant secretary for public affairs at the Treasury Department, worked for a handful of senators before taking on her current role.

When then-Sen. Kamala Harris reached out to Adams about working as her communications director, Adams was a little occupied — she was on a family vacation in Tanzania.

“There’s not great cell reception in Zanzibar,” Adams told Brandeis Magazine, a publication affiliated with the Massachusetts university . “I had to find a place with Wi-Fi, and the only place was a really small bar. So I went there to do my interview.”

The reception at the bar apparently was good enough. She got the job.

POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER

President GEORGE H. W. BUSH served as the captain of Yale’s baseball team during his senior year at the university. He was such a baseball legend that in 2021, the university renamed Yale Field after the president. It’s now known as George H.W. Bush '48 Field.

A CALL OUT — Do you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents with a citation and we may feature it.

Edited by Eun Kyung Kim and Sam Stein.

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