Welcome to POLITICO’s West Wing Playbook, your guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration. With help from Allie Bice. Send tips | Subscribe here| Email Eli | Email Lauren Programming Note: We’ll be off Monday, Jan. 16, for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, but will be back in your inboxes on Tuesday, Jan. 17. We hope absence makes the heart grow fonder. As he navigates the tricky politics of divided government during a likely reelection campaign, there is one relationship President JOE BIDEN must attend to above all others: the one he has with CHUCK SCHUMER. No one in Congress is more important to the White House’s continued success on federal judges and other nominees than the Democratic Senate majority leader. Conversely, it’s easy to see the major pitfalls of the next two years — from government shutdowns to debt ceiling standoffs — turning into outright calamities if both men are not on the same page. “I'm trying to think if there is any reason to say anything other than Chuck Schumer and I can’t,” said DANNY WEISS, NANCY PELOSI’s former chief of staff, when asked which congressional relationship was most critical for Biden. “He's the person who has the greatest ability to protect the president's agenda and to protect the successes he's had so far.” Those close to the two leaders say they have good rapport and a smooth working relationship. Schumer, in a statement, said he calls chief of staff RON KLAIN so often, “I know his phone number by heart.” Part of what’s made the relationship successful, each side concedes, has been self-awareness about the elements of it, including when Biden chose to largely defer to Schumer as a way to reel in recalcitrant Senate Democrats on Build Back Better negotiations. “We’ve been very respectful and honest with each other and they understand what we can and can’t do,” said Schumer. “I expect nothing will change in the next two years.” Klain, for his part, returned the compliment in kind. “As the President said himself, Leader Schumer ‘delivers,’” he said in a statement. “The President and Leader Schumer have known each other for decades, their relationship is not only a key partnership but a close friendship. I know the President looks forward to continue working very closely with Leader Schumer in the months ahead.” Yet, the next two years will be trickier. The big fights going forward won’t just be within the party but between the parties. And there is modest concern that Biden and Schumer might have different approaches or objectives in the midst of those fights. Democrats were in a similar place during the BARACK OBAMA years. After Republicans took over the House following the 2010 elections, a series of high-stakes standoffs ensued. While then-Senate Majority Leader HARRY REID took hard-lined stances in negotiations over the debt ceiling, budget, and Bush tax cuts, Biden twice swooped in at MITCH MCCONNELL’s behest to cut a deal. Reid, his former advisers confirmed, was furious. Years later, as a debt ceiling fight loomed again, Reid demanded that Obama keep Biden on the sideline. And he did. Now president, Biden has taken the position that there shouldn’t be deal-making at all on the debt ceiling. “We will not be doing any negotiation,” press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE said on Friday. But they have also not closed the door in the past to some sort of negotiated settlement, and the brewing fear within the party is that, at some point, the president and Senate Democrats are going to be at a crossroads. Biden, whose instinct is to forge common ground with the opposition, will have to find some way through — and as our colleagues reported yesterday, his aides are already trying to make inroads on the Hill to that end. But he will need Schumer’s help. The Senate leader has, arguably, more variables to contend with than the president. It’s not just the no-negotiation-at-all posture of his progressive members. He has a host of vulnerable moderate incumbents up for reelection in 2024, too. On top of all that, there is Biden’s likely reelection campaign to factor in. “In many ways Sen. Schumer’s job becomes more difficult over the next two years,” said RODELL MOLLINEAU, a former top Senate adviser to Reid. “There will be pressure to deliver the White House wins going into the 2024, but the Senate map is challenging and some of our incumbents might have different opinions than the Administration on what defines a win.” The clock may be ticking faster than expected. On Friday, Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN sent a letter to House Speaker KEVIN MCCARTHY stating “the outstanding debt of the United States is projected to reach the statutory limit” this coming Thursday. The Treasury would have to take extraordinary measures that would allow them to survive until, at least, early June. But the note marked the beginning of a new stage of Schumer-Biden relations, and it may not be an altogether easy one. MESSAGE US —Are you CHRISTOPHER SLEVIN, deputy assistant to the president and deputy director of the Office of Legislative Affairs? We want to hear from you. And we’ll keep you anonymous! Email us at westwingtips@politico.com.
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