|
Presented by Environmental Working Group: Jeremy B. White and Lara Korte’s must-read briefing on politics and government in the Golden State | | | | |  | | By Lara Korte , Jeremy B. White , Sakura Cannestra and Owen Tucker-Smith | Presented by Environmental Working Group | THE BUZZ: As California goes, so goes the House of Representatives? Republicans are on the brink of reclaiming the lower chamber after four years out of power. If they win, Speaker Nancy Pelosi will be out, Speaker Kevin McCarthy will be in ( well, maybe ), and the GOP can move forward with an agenda that includes ramping up fossil-fuel production, attempting to curb illegal immigration and combating crime — as well as probing the Biden administration with investigations. After victories in Arizona and California last night, the GOP needs just one of the remaining 14 undecided seats across the country to take control. The majority of those undecided (10) are in California. Late last night, the AP called CA-45 for incumbent Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, and CA-41 for Republican Rep. Ken Calvert, dashing Democrats’ hopes Will Rollins could win with a newly-added Palm Springs demographic. A remaining three are all but certain to go for Democrats; three more are either likely Republican wins or lean that way; two lean Democratic; and two are toss-ups, according to POLITICO’s election prognosticators. Democratic leaders are prepared for a loss. President Joe Biden told reporters i n Indonesia yesterday, “I don’t think we’re going to make it.” But even if Republicans end up in control, the outcome of the remaining California races will likely define the final margins. “The main question of California's role is going to be how stable Republicans’ majority can be,” said Rob Pyers, research director for California Target Book. It’s a tough outlook for Democrats right now, and even though they have been overperforming this election, as POLITICO politics editor Steve Shepard sees it, Democrats essentially need to sweep the remaining toss-up races in order to have a shot at the majority. That makes the matchups in CA-22 and CA-49 critical to Democrats’ hopes of holding the House. | 
Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced addresses the Assembly at the Capitol in Sacramento, Calif., Tuesday, May 26, 2020. | Rich Pedroncelli/AP Photo |
In the Central Valley, Rep. David Valadao (R) is currently leading Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas 52.7 percent to 47.3 percent, or about 3,000 votes. Pyers, at CA Target Book, expects it could be weeks before a final result here. The district covers much of Bakersfield in Kern County, where vote counts have been historically slow. Elections officials there estimate a remaining 72,000 ballots to be counted across the county.
In another toss-up district, over on the coast, Rep. Mike Levin (D) is ahead of Republican Brian Maryott 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent — with an estimated 86 percent of the vote in. Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, has marked this district as a probable win for Democrats. Many are also closely watching CA-13, another Central Valley district that Democrats are hoping will swing their way. Republican John Duarte was up against Assemblyman Adam Gray by a mere 84 votes, but on Monday the tables flipped, with Gray leading Duarte by 761 votes. Relatedly, yesterday, Gray formed an FEC committee to raise money for a recount. Democratic Rep. Katie Porter’s Orange County district, CA-47, is predicted to lean Democrat, but some are still holding their breath as she’s now just over a point ahead of Republican Scott Baugh after the latest ballots were tabulated on Monday night. BUENOS DÍAS, good Tuesday morning. In other election news: Rep. Karen Bass widened her lead over Rick Caruso by more than 20,000 votes last night, 47.85 to 52.15 percent. LA County estimates an additional 655,300 ballots to be counted county-wide. Across the state, there are an estimated 3.8 million ballots left. Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit us up: jwhite@politico.com and lkorte@politico.com or follow us on Twitter @JeremyBWhite and @Lara_Korte . QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Crackpot ideas sometimes turn out to be true. The earth does revolve around the sun, and it was Hunter Biden, not Russian disinformation agents, who dropped off a laptop full of incriminating evidence at a repair shop in Delaware.” Lawyers for Trump comparing the former president to Galileo in a 96-page filing submitted to the San Francisco-based 9th Circuit Court of Appeals yesterday related to Trump’s suit against Twitter. TWEET OF THE DAY |  Today's Tweet of the Day | Twitter |
WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.
| | A message from Environmental Working Group: The average price for a gallon of gas in California is nearly twice the national average while oil companies’ profits have risen up to 500%. All in the current setting of a struggling economy with record inflation. Let’s put an end to oil company price gouging and put money back in the pockets of hard-working Californians. Go to http://ewg.org to find out more. | | | |  | TOP TALKERS | | — “ Jennifer Siebel Newsom Testifies in Weinstein Sex Crimes Trial ,” by the New York Times’ Lauren Herstik and Livia Albeck-Ripka: “In a packed courtroom, Ms. Siebel Newsom became the fourth California accuser to testify in the Los Angeles criminal trial of Mr. Weinstein, the former Hollywood producer who was convicted in New York in 2020 on rape and criminal sexual assault charges.” YOU SEE UC — University of California academic workers strike over wages and benefits in largest walkout in U.S. higher education , by POLITICO’s Blake Jones and Sakura Cannestra: Bargaining units for nearly 50,000 teaching assistants, researchers and other scholars failed to reach a contract that met union demands amid soaring housing costs and inflation for people who provide much of the instruction for undergraduates in the system. — A second House Dem is running for campaigns chief after shockingly positive midterms , by POLITICO’s Nicholas Wu: [Rep. Ami] Bera (D-Calif.) is telling his colleagues his work to protect the party’s seats this cycle — he led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “frontline” program to protect its most vulnerable members — can make him an effective campaign chief for the next election. | | CAMPAIGN MODE | | — “ Newsom feels pressure to show results for California in second term ,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Taryn Luna: “As Newsom enters his second term, he said he feels the pressure to contradict that narrative from Fox and what he calls the Republican Party’s ‘surround-sound anger industry.’” MAIL-IN AND MAIL-OUT — “ Postal Service investigating how ballots ended up along South Bay highway ,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Jessica Flores: “An individual reported seeing ballots and other mail Friday near Highway 17, which cuts through San Jose to Santa Cruz, according to Santa Clara County’s Registrar of Voters.” | | | | POLITICO APP USERS: UPGRADE YOUR APP BY DECEMBER 19! We recently upgraded the POLITICO app with a fresh look and improved features for easier access to POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Starting December 19, users will no longer have access to the previous version of the app. Update your app today to stay on top of essential political news, insights, and analysis from the best journalists in the business. UPDATE iOS APP – UPDATE ANDROID APP . | | | | | | | CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR | | BOTTLED UP — “ As California’s wells dry up, residents rely on bottled water to survive ,” by the Washington Post’s Joshua Partlow: “Wells are running dry in California at a record pace. Amid a hotter, drier climate and the third consecutive year of severe drought, the state has already tallied a record 1,351 dry wells this year — nearly 40 percent over last year’s rate and the most since the state created its voluntary reporting system in 2014.” — “ In some conservative California counties where anti-abortion candidates win, so does abortion ,” by the Sacramento Bee’s Jenavieve Hatch: “It’s unsurprising that voters in blue California would pass Prop. 1 at the state level. But in counties that continue to lean Republican, where anti-abortion candidates keep getting elected, abortion itself is still pretty popular.” TRYING TO REBOOT — “ Laid-off tech workers describe what it’s like to hunt for a job now ,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Carolyn Said: “It’s an anxious time for the tens of thousands of newly laid-off workers now hitting the job market amid inflation pressures and recession concerns. As they seek new jobs, they contend with fewer openings, hiring freezes and competition from all the other suddenly unemployed people.” LOOKING FORWARD — “ Will this be the most diverse California Legislature ever? ” by CalMatters’ Ariel Gans and Sameea Kamal: “While votes are still being counted, it appears that the next Legislature will include the most women and LGBTQ members ever. Advocacy groups are already celebrating, but how much difference will the diversity make in policy?” — “ Jennifer Siebel Newsom’s role in Weinstein trial raises thorny legal issues ,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Sophia Bollag: “During the trial, Siebel Newsom is referred to not by name but as one of multiple anonymous ‘Jane Doe’ witnesses who allege Weinstein sexually assaulted them.” — “ California child dies from combination of flu, RSV in first fatal pediatric case this season ,” by the Sacramento Bee’s Cathie Anderson: “Aragón sent a letter Friday to all health facilities, notifying them that RSV, or respiratory syncytial virus, was already “hitting levels similar to seasonal peaks in prior years.” Last year, cases of this virus peaked in December, but in three prior years, such high points did not come until January or February.” — “ Minor police encounters plummet after LAPD put limits on stopping drivers and pedestrians ,” by the Los Angeles Times Libor Jany and Ben Poston: “The tactic is legal and has led to plenty of seizures. But Los Angeles Police Department Chief Michel Moore and the civilian oversight commission were grappling with the fact that the city’s Black and Latino residents were disproportionately targeted for the fishing expeditions.” | | | | A message from Environmental Working Group:   | | | | | SILICON VALLEYLAND | | TECH TRIM CONTINUES — “ Facebook’s owner Meta chops thousands of Bay Area jobs: official state files ,” by the Mercury News’ George Avalos: “The layoffs add to warning signs about the pace and outcome of the Bay Area’s years-long struggle to recover from its mammoth job losses during the first two months of the coronavirus outbreak, in March 2020 and April 2020. The once-robust region has yet to regain those lost jobs.” — Trump filing in suit against Twitter compares former president to Galileo , by POLITICO’s Kelly Garrity and Josh Gerstein: “The 96-page filing submitted to the San Francisco-based 9th Circuit Court of Appeals on Monday contends that Twitter and the federal government are working to ‘suppress opinions and information about matters that Americans consider of vital interest.’” | | HOLLYWOODLAND | | HANDS CLASPED — “ Everyone is cutting ties with Kanye West. For church leaders, it’s not that simple ,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Kenan Draughorne: “His reserved demeanor, captured on video, as he bowed his head in the middle of a prayer circle, stood in stark contrast to his offensive remarks that have sucked up much of the attention in recent weeks.” | | | | GO INSIDE THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT: POLITICO is featuring a special edition of our “Future Pulse” newsletter at the 2022 Milken Institute Future of Health Summit from Dec. 6 to 8. The newsletter takes readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of health industry leaders and innovators solving the biggest global health issues to ensure a healthier, more resilient future for all. SUBSCRIBE TODAY TO RECEIVE EXCLUSIVE COVERAGE . | | | | | | | MIXTAPE | | CLASS IN THIS SESSION — “ California school board races don’t see red wave ,” by EdSource’s Diana Lambert. — “ California programs are waiting weeks for free Narcan to prevent overdose deaths ,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Emily Alpert Reyes. SEE SEA WATER — “ Could the ocean slake California’s thirst? ” by CalMatters’ Dan Walters. STARR ON SKATES — “ Column: Starr Andrews juggles Olympic figure skating dreams and being a Black role model ,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Helene Elliott. — “ Don’t go to Lake Tahoe in 2023, major travel guide says ,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Sam Whiting. — “ How LA's Storm Capture System Currently Works And Why It Still Can't Grab Enough Rainwater ,” by LAist’s Aaricka Washington. | | TRANSITIONS | | — Shana Mansbach is now speechwriter and senior adviser to the secretary at the State Department. Mansbach, a former director of speechwriting for Speaker Nancy Pelosi, most recently was deputy director of communications for Pelosi and is an Obama State Department alum. | | A message from Environmental Working Group: While Big Oil enjoys record profits from California consumers, working-and middle-class families are being forced to make difficult pocketbook decisions between the need to commute and the rising costs of living.
The average price for a gallon of gas in California is nearly twice the national average, reaching as high as $7 in some areas in recent weeks, with oil companies pocketing up to 5x their normal profit per gallon.
This rampant price gouging needs to stop and the outrageous profits taken from the pockets of hard-working Californians needs to be returned.
Gov. Gavin Newsom has called a special session of the state legislature in early December to vote on a price-gouging penalty tax on these companies that will be sent directly back to California consumers in the form of rebates and refunds.
Go to http://ewg.org to find out more. | | | CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this -only service offers, click here . Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.
| | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |  |
