THE BLOCS THAT COULD BLOCK A BORDER-UKRAINE VOTE Senators say they’re inches away from a bipartisan deal on border security measures that are designed to shake loose a multi-billion-dollar aid package for Ukraine and Israel. But as hard as the final Is and Ts are to dot and cross, getting the votes to send any agreement to the president’s desk may well prove to be just as difficult. The three negotiators, Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), James Lankford (R-Okla.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), say that an agreement among them is the hardest part. But three critical groups of senators are going to make the difference between implosion, a squeaker vote that barely clears 60 – and the kind of robust total that will add pressure on the House to act. The three factions we’re watching most closely: Progressives: Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), along with Sens. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), spoke out many weeks ago to oppose changes to asylum policy that didn’t include more left-leaning ideas they’ve fought for, such as a pathway to citizenship for immigrants. Warren is among the members of that group who later signaled they won’t reject a GOP-blessed deal reflexively because they want to unlock Ukraine aid. Still, it’s easy to see some or all of them opposing the agreement as too conservative. “[My decision] depends on what the border measures are like,” Warren said Tuesday. “The importance of getting aid to Ukraine cannot be overstated. They were on the frontlines fighting for democracy. And they're running out of everything they need to wage that battle.” Conservatives: Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Mike Lee (R-Utah), Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) often oppose emergency spending bills and are against sending additional aid to Ukraine. None are expected to support a future bipartisan deal – but the extent of their opposition matters a lot. Whether by forcing the consideration of polarizing amendments or holding up floor consideration, conservative critics could easily turn Senate passage of a border-Ukraine deal into a brutal slog. These are also the senators for whom former President Donald Trump’s influence will matter most. If Trump comes out against a deal, this group will have even more motivation to throw obstacles in its path. (Several of these Senate conservatives are planning a Wednesday press conference to discuss their views on the still-unreleased deal.) Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), another conservative who is against additional Ukraine aid and thinks the border component will fall short, told POLITICO that he spoke to Trump about it on Monday. “He said he'd seen the problems [at the border] up close and personal when he was president, and [that] for the last four years, [they] have even gotten worse,” Tuberville said of Trump’s take on the border. Anti-Trump Republicans: Party leaders will look to moderate Republicans who have shown a willingness to break with Trump, such as Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Mitt Romney (R-Utah), to help get the deal done. That doesn’t mean they’re going to be automatic cheerleaders, though. Collins told reporters Tuesday that the text she’s seen of the potential deal included areas marked “TBD” and elements where “policy disagreements” clearly remained. Then there’s the mood: Fatigue over the dragged-out border negotiations is driving some senators to palpable displays of frustration. Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) characterized the situation as “a freak show.” “It's time to land this plane, and let's make a decision and let's vote. You've got a choice: You can vote yes, you can vote no or you can jump the rail. But it's time,” Kennedy said. Others preached patience. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said a potential deal is perhaps “more complicated than people really have appreciated.” But he also acknowledged that negotiators’ optimism about text – coupled with the lack of that specific language so far – “sort of feeds people’s natural suspicions and conspiracy theories, because they are guessing about what’s actually in it.” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) was sharper, urging her colleagues to “give the courtesy to individuals that have been tasked by their conferences to focus on this,” referring to Sinema, Murphy and Lankford. “It's so easy for people to sit back and take potshots,” Murkowski added, “and say it's not good enough.” — Daniella Diaz and Ursula Perano, with assists from Jordain Carney, Caitlin Emma and Anthony Adragna
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