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Presented by bp: An evening recap of the action on Capitol Hill and preview of the day ahead | | | | |  | | By Ally Mutnick and Ursula Perano | | | With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team
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Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's exit, while not unexpected, resolves the last remaining question about the Senate landscape and cements a two-way race between Republican Kari Lake and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.). | Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images | Kyrsten Sinema is out of Arizona’s Senate race this fall – leaving a small but potentially pivotal bloc of moderate voters free for the taking. The Independent’s exit, while not unexpected, resolves the last remaining question about the Senate landscape and cements a two-way race between Republican Kari Lake and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.). Lake, who has viciously attacked the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and denied Donald Trump’s 2020 loss, is not especially well-positioned to grab the middle of the purple state’s electorate. But then again, neither is Gallego, a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Which means that in an independent-heavy state like Arizona, the race — and control of the Senate — could hinge on whoever can win over more centrist voters. Both parties claim that Sinema’s exit benefits their respective candidate. National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) noted “recent polling showing Kyrsten Sinema pulling far more Republican voters than Democrat voters.” But Sinema’s past life as a Democrat gives her former party hope that her supporters will come home to Gallego. There’s data that both parties can use to support their theories. But a February survey by Arizona-based pollster Mike Noble found that Gallego’s lead jumped from 3 points with Sinema in the race to 10 points in a head-to-head matchup with Lake. Independent voters broke for Gallego by 18 points in a two-way race. Another data point: An Emerson College poll from mid-February found Gallego winning a three-way race by 6 points and a two-way race by 7 points. Lake was visiting Capitol Hill on Tuesday when Sinema revealed her retirement, and the Republican celebrated by taking questions from reporters for almost 20 minutes. Warmly praising Sinema, Lake said Democrats “threw her aside like trash.” In her latest turnabout from that previous sharp criticism of McCain, Lake also praised him as “an incredible veteran.” She vowed to “bring people together” and win over moderate voters with her policy proposals. Among Lake's priorities, she said: more career training and helping young adults buy homes. (Not on her list? A federal abortion ban.) Yet she also displayed some of her old self, including her willingness to question the 2020 results. Asked if she believed that Joe Biden and now-Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) had fairly won the state, Lake said: “Next question.” She characterized the election in Arizona as “really rigged.” Sinema’s announcement also means the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and national Democrats can firmly coalesce behind Gallego. While he’s won local support as the de facto Democratic nominee, some of the party’s senators were treading carefully. Until Tuesday afternoon, when Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and DSCC Chair Gary Peters (D-Mich.) wasted little time after Sinema’s announcement before blasting out statements declaring their support for Gallego. “We are fully behind his candidacy and look forward to winning this race with him in 2024,” Schumer wrote. — Ally Mutnick and Ursula Perano, with an assist from Daniella Diaz
| | | | A message from bp: bp added more than $70 billion to the US economy in 2022. We did it by making investments from coast to coast – like acquiring America’s largest biogas producer, Archaea Energy, and producing natural gas with fewer operational emissions in the Permian Basin. See how else bp is investing in America. | | | GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Tuesday, March 5, where there's a song stuck in our heads: watch me Whip (Barrasso), now watch me nae nae (OKAY!). THE THREE HOUSE PRIMARIES TO WATCH TONIGHT It’s Super Tuesday, folks! Which means that in just a few hours, we’ll be one step closer to seeing just exactly how November’s House elections are going to shake out – as Republicans fight to keep their majority and Democrats try to seize it back. Burgess and Nick previewed the Senate outlook already this morning, so we wanted to flag three big House primaries we’re keeping an eye on: Womack vs. Penzo in Arkansas: Senior appropriator Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.) is facing a primary challenge from state senator Clint Penzo for the state’s 3rd Congressional district – making him the only one of the four House members in the state facing a challenge. There was some speculation that Womack might not run for reelection – especially after this interview dropped – but he announced shortly after he planned to seek the seat again. Penzo has sought to portray himself as more conservative, citing Womack’s vote against Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) for speaker during the frenetic rush of candidacies after Kevin McCarthy was ousted. The challenger has also painted Womack as an ally of Democrats when it comes to new deficit spending (essentially, a complicated attempt to turn Womack’s role as an appropriator against him). Whoever wins the primary will face Democratic candidate Catlin Draper Mattelin in November. Carl vs. Moore in Alabama: Two conservative lawmakers are facing off in a primary for a ruby-red seat in Alabama: Rep. Jerry Carl and Rep. Barry Moore. The two Alabama Republicans, who are both in their second terms, are running against each other after the Supreme Court ruled that the state needs to give Black voters two districts instead of just one – moving Moore’s hometown into the 1st District, which Carl represents. Carl and Moore are similar in many ways: They both want to cut spending and have called for the completion of former President Donald Trump’s proposed border wall, as Olivia reported in a February edition of Inside Congress. But while both are self-described conservatives, only Moore is in the Freedom Caucus. Regardless of the outcome, one of the two men is out of office at the end of the race. Jackson Lee vs. Edwards in Texas: Longtime Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee is fighting to keep her seat after losing the Houston mayor’s race last year, waging a tough primary battle against former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards. Jackson Lee has handily dispatched every other primary foe she’s faced in her 14-year career on the Hill. But this time it’s different, after a hard primary for Houston mayor shed light on rumors of her tough reputation as a boss and high turnover in her congressional office. Because Jackson Lee only announced her decision to run for reelection in December, Edwards at that point had outraised Jackson Lee by more than $200,000. It’s expected to be a close race. — Daniella Diaz
| | | | GROWING IN THE GOLDEN STATE: POLITICO California is growing, reinforcing our role as the indispensable insider source for reporting on politics, policy and power. From the corridors of power in Sacramento and Los Angeles to the players and innovation hubs in Silicon Valley, we're your go-to for navigating the political landscape across the state. Exclusive scoops, essential daily newsletters, unmatched policy reporting and insights — POLITICO California is your key to unlocking Golden State politics. LEARN MORE. | | | | | DEM MOVES ON 14TH AMENDMENT Now that the Supreme Court has kicked the question of presidential eligibility under the 14th Amendment to Congress, two House Democrats are getting to work on a bill to clarify the process. Reps. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) said Tuesday that they were updating a bill they introduced last Congress that would create a judicial process to determine whether a defendant was an insurrectionist. The Supreme Court on Monday ruled it was up to Congress, not the states, to decide whether a presidential candidate could be disqualified under the Constitution’s “insurrection clause.” “Because the Supreme Court has not provided any other way to settle the disqualification of an insurrectionist prior to the casting and counting of Electoral College votes, Congress must now develop a judicial mechanism for ascertaining such persons and Speaker Johnson must permit the House of Representatives to vote on it,” the two lawmakers said in a statement. The bill is almost certainly dead on arrival in the GOP-controlled House and the narrowly divided Senate, but a future Democratic Congress could act on the legislation. ICYMI: Nick and Daniella wrote yesterday about the tricky spot the SCOTUS ruling put Hill Democrats in. — Nicholas Wu
| | | | A message from bp:   | | | TIME FOR CAMPUS CORNER WITH KTM! There’s a new Main Street on the Hill: … and it’s about centralizing critical staffing resources, not organizing centrist Republicans. House Administration Chair Bryan Steil (R-Wis.), in partnership with Chief Administrative Officer Catherine Szpindor, are transforming the basement of Longworth into what they’re calling a “main street” of resources for employees. They picked a spot that aides already know how to find – across from the cafeteria. “If you're a new staffer, you know if you come here and you do one loop, you're going to find what you're looking for,” Steil said Tuesday. The Agency Connection Center opened Tuesday afternoon, housing a long roster of services in one hub. Staff or lawmakers who need assistance from the State Department, Postal Service, Government Accountability Office, Office of Personnel Management, Internal Revenue Service, Social Security Administration or the Congressional Research Service can find them all at Longworth B-245. Their goal is to lower the barrier to solving sticky constituent services issues more quickly and to allow for face-to-face relationships to build between agencies and Hill staff. The idea, Steil said, is to have “that outpost where you can come in and speak to someone – and not find yourself in the doom loop that we far too often find in either a telephone process or in the doom loop of the internet.” — Katherine Tully-McManus
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | | We feel you, Debbie Dingell! Happy 305 day, readers. DALE! Salud Carbajal, please never change.
| | | | A message from bp: bp supports more than 275,000 US jobs. Jobs keeping oil and gas flowing and jobs developing more lower carbon energy. It’s and, not or. See what doing both means for energy nationwide. | | | QUICK LINKS Parents of Russian-Held Evan Gershkovich to Attend Biden’s State of the Union, from Natalie Edwards at The Wall Street Journal How ‘Dear White Staffers’ turned into an anti-Israel, antisemitic account, from Marc Rod at Jewish Insider Presidential Conventions Lure Lobbyists Back After Covid Break, from Kate Ackley at BGov TRANSITIONS Ryan Tully has started as VP of government relations for Stratolaunch, a hypersonic company owned by the PE firm Cerberus. He most recently ran European/Russian policy and the Strategic Forces Subcommittee of the House Armed Service Committee and is a Trump NSC alum. TOMORROW IN CONGRESS The House and Senate are in session. WEDNESDAY AROUND THE HILL 8:30 a.m. Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick, Jared Golden and others are having a press conference on the bipartisan Defending Borders, Defending Democracies Act. (HVC Studio A) 2 p.m. Reps. Josh Gottheimer, Dan Goldman, Steny Hoyer, Greg Landsman, Mike Lawler and others will host a press conference with families of American hostages in Gaza calling for the return of hostages. (House Triangle) 3 p.m. Congressional Sustainable Investment Caucus members are having a press conference on the SEC Climate Rule. (House Triangle)
| | MONDAY’S ANSWER: Peter Roff correctly answered that Carl Hayden was the senator who walked into a phone booth in the Senate Democratic cloakroom, in the belief that it was an elevator, and said: “Up, please.” TODAY’S QUESTION from our Congress team: Name a former senator and former House member who became honorary Officers of the British Empire in 2023. The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com. GET INSIDE CONGRESS emailed to your phone each evening. Follow Daniella on X at @DaniellaMicaela. | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
