FIRST THING — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU and Families Minister KARINA GOULD will announce a childcare deal with New Brunswick this morning. Premier BLAINE HIGGS and Education Minister DOMINIC CARDY will join virtually from Fredericton. Cabmins DOMINIC LEBLANC and GINETTE PETITPAS TAYLOR will dial in from Moncton. — Nine out of 10: The New Brunswick deal leaves only Ontario as a provincial child-care holdout. HOLIDAY PUNCH — The first days of the final week on the 2021 parliamentary calendar kick off with a pair of major economic developments. — First up: This morning, Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND and Bank of Canada Governor TIFF MACKLEM are expected to unveil details of the renewed agreement for the central bank’s inflation-control target. Media reports — like this one from Bloomberg — say the Bank of Canada is poised to keep its 2-percent inflation target for the next five years, but will add “new language around employment.” — Next up: On Tuesday in her fall update, Freeland will show Canadians the state of federal finances and share new economic projections. — Monetary vs. fiscal: ROBERT ASSELIN, a former budget director for Freeland’s predecessor BILL MORNEAU, tells Playbook that this week’s one-two combo of monetary and fiscal policy is a reminder of how much they influence each other. Asselin, the senior vice-president of policy at the Business Council of Canada, says economic indicators have been much better than expected and have put things pretty much back to pre-pandemic levels, except, of course, for some hard-hit sectors. All the emergency monetary and fiscal stimulus in response to the worst of the Covid-fueled economic crisis was necessary, he says. — Times are changing: With high inflation, strong jobs numbers and a much healthier economy overall, the Bank of Canada is under increasing pressure to start raising interest rates. Because of this, Asselin said the finance minister should be reconsidering the billions in short-term spending commitments from last spring’s budget and the Liberal platform. “You don't want fiscal and monetary policy to work against each other,” he said. “I would wind down the short-term spending. I'm not talking about this aid she announced for sectors that are affected — but all this huge spending in the short term.” — Time to refocus? Asselin added that if there are investments to be made, they should be geared toward innovation, research and development and applied research. Asselin notes that the energy transition in Canada will be a “very costly” pivot that has yet to find its way into the fiscal framework. “This is probably one of the trickiest things we'll have to do as a country in the next century,” he said. “We absolutely have to get this right. We can't just wind down our energy sector, we have to help them transition and that will require a lot of thoughtful policy.” DAYS WITH NO DOCS: 48 — More than a month has passed since Cabinet was sworn in, and still the Prime Minister's Office has made no mention of new mandate letters for ministers. Playbook is counting the days. We'll stop when the documents flow. FRIDAY SURPRISE — The end of the workweek has recently brought juicy headlines. Trade Minister MARY NG threatened a trade war on Friday if the Biden administration doesn’t back down on electric-vehicle tax incentives that favor American manufacturers. ZI-ANN LUM had the details if you'd already started your weekend. Trudeau announced his parliamentary secretaries on a Friday. And even the welcome news that MICHAEL KOVRIG and MICHAEL SPAVOR were freed from their years-long detention dropped on a Friday evening as they flew home — timing not totally under the government's control, but part of an unmistakable trend. — News dump? This Friday is not like the others. Parliament adjourns until the end of January, which means the opposition's parliamentary platform for loudly scrutinizing Team Trudeau will be yanked away for 45 days. The obvious question: What's coming? Send us any and all predictions. MANDATE GEAR SHIFT — Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT’s comments to CP last week expressing a desire to see a national mandate for EV sales quotas by the end of next year signaled a change in mandates. EV sales quotas were previously Transport Canada’s policy terrain (ex-transport minister MARC GARNEAU wasn’t necessarily a super fan). Guilbeault’s office confirmed to Playbook that the federal environment department is indeed leading the effort. A spokesperson for the minister confirmed this new policy won’t come via legislation. “The regulatory changes will be done under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act, and ECCC will be leading this effort,” they said. | 
