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A daily look inside Canadian politics and power. | | | | |  | | By Zi-Ann Lum | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Zi-Ann l Follow Politico Canada WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK. I’m your host Zi-Ann Lum. This year’s budget blind date is just over a week away. And this year’s tab is expected to be a multi-dimensional one after CHRYSTIA FREELAND promised in the fall that it will include a detailed economic growth plan. Plus, we take you to the future, to 2025 for some reverie — a taste of tomorrow’s political landscape, today. Today at 12 p.m. ET, POLITICO Canada will host a Twitter Spaces with some super smart people who know what it takes to build a budget.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | WE HAVE A DATE — Get those calendar reminders scheduled: Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is dishing out slices of budget pie on April 7. It’s a whole new Rubik’s Cube since Freeland tabled last year’s budget. An entire election came and went, delivering the Liberals another minority. The “Finishing the Fight Against COVID-19” chapter in the 2021 budget reads more like a prelude now with Omicron’s BA.2 variant currently ripping through communities. — Major promises, by the numbers : Ottawa announced a C$40-billion settlement for Indigenous child welfare and Russia’s war in Ukraine escalated pressures for Canada to boost defense spending to meet NATO’s two-percent objective. Parliamentary Budget Officer YVES GIROUX recently broke down what those defense numbers would have to be, telling CTV News that Canada would need to increase spending between C$20 billion and $C25 billion annually to meet NATO targets. Expect the budget to also recognize the sting of red-hot inflation, ANDY BLATCHFORD writes in a piece for Pro s. Plus, up to C$9.1 billion in new climate funding. More on that later. Did someone forward Ottawa Playbook to you today? Are you ready to be a forwarder, not a forwardee? Click here to sign up to this free newsletter. CHOOSE YOUR OWN ADVENTURE — The year is 2025. PIERRE POILIEVRE and CHRYSTIA FREELAND are duking it out on the campaign trail. JAGMEET SINGH is doing everything he can to distance himself from a deal with the Liberals gone sour. The Tories are finally united after years in the wilderness. The Liberals are trying to stay united after a decade in power. The NDP hopes to regain its mojo. Well, that's one possible timeline. There will be many crossroad moments that could define Canada’s political landscape during the next three years. — Questions: What happens if the Conservative movement splinters? Does Trudeau have one more fight in him? Will the NDP be squeezed out? Playbook's NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY gamed out all the chaos that could unfold — or not. Follow this link to POLITICO Canada's first choose-your-own-adventure story.
| | 5 THINGS TO KNOW | | CLIMATE MATH — The government’s much-anticipated Emissions Reduction Plan is here, minus some key climate math ingredients such as details on the Liberals’ promised emissions cap for oil and gas. “I cannot stress enough that this is a global competition,” said Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT hours after he tabled the much-anticipated plan Tuesday. Here are 5 key numbers to watch: — 36.4-percent reduction in CO2 emissions: The impact of the measures outlined in the plan account for 470 megatons of CO2, or 36.4 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. The number falls short of the government’s goal to reduce emissions by 40-45 percent by 2030. Senior government officials say it will be revised after new programs such as the proposed oil and gas sector cap, the Canada green building strategy, the green agriculture plan and new transport measures are fully developed. — 42-percent emissions drop for oil and gas : On the road to developing the Liberals’ proposed oil and gas emissions cap, given the sector’s contributions to the GDP, federal modellers determined the “most economically efficient pathway” would be to aim for a 31-percent reduction from 2005 levels to reach 110 megatons in 2030. But because oil and gas sector emissions have risen by 20 percent since 2005, that reduction target increases to 42 percent from current levels. Reminder: The Liberals campaigned on a promise to ensure “pollution from the oil and gas sector doesn’t go up from current levels.” — Interim 20 percent ZEV sales target for 2026: The plan responds to climate and energy experts’ calls for interim sales mandates for new zero-emission, light-duty vehicles to help ensure supply. The plan sets interim EV sales targets to 20 percent by 2026 and at least 60 percent by 2030 in order to reach 100 percent by 2035. But the interim targets left industry hungry for details about previously announced ZEV purchase incentives, charging infrastructure and funding to get Canadians to switch. “Government efforts to improve electric vehicle charging infrastructure, enhance purchase incentives and educate consumers will determine whether or not Canada will keep pace,” said Global Automakers of Canada CEO DAVID ADAMS in a statement. — 2023: That’s when the next mandatory progress report must provide an update on whether climate-related measures are leading to emission cuts. — C$9.1 billion in new funding: While the plan stipulates it contains C$9.1 billion in new investments, there isn’t an index that details how much money has been set aside for new programs versus top-ups to existing ones. A senior government official, not authorized to speak publicly on the plan, told reporters during a tech briefing that itemized line-by-line details will be included in the upcoming budget which, because of new spending, will require Parliament’s approval. Liberal-NDP supply-and-confidence agreement, activate.
| | AROUND THE HILL | | LIVE AT THE WESTIN — The Broadbent Institute’s Progress Summit returns to an in-person conference this year, its first since the Before Times. The three-day event kicks off this evening with an opening reception, its mood facilitated by music from Ottawa’s DJ JAS NASTY and an advertised poutine station with vegan options. Speakers on panels spread between Thursday and Friday include: ED BROADBENT, ZEXI LI, NDP Chief of Staff JENNIFER HOWARD, German Social Democratic NILS SCHMID , Unifor’s environment and just transition adviser PATRICK RONDEAU, KARL BÉLANGER, IRENE MATHYSSEN, BRAD LAVINGE, OLIVIA CHOW. Former BERNIE SANDERS speechwriter DAVID SIROTA is also on the schedule, as well as journalist HANNAH SUNG, Amnesty International Canada’s KETTY NIVYABANDI, Canadian Race Relations Foundation Executive Director MOHAMMED HASIM, Hill Times Columnist ERICA IFILL, NDP MP LEAH GAZAN , and journalist DESMOND COLE.
| | ASK US ANYTHING | | What are you hearing that you need Playbook to know? Any questions about upcoming budget? Send it all our way.
| | TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS | | Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will visit the Williams Lake First Nation in B.C., two months after the discovery of 93 potential human burials on the sites of the former St. Joseph's Mission residential school and nearby Onward Ranch. The PM will be joined by Minister of Crown-Indigenous Relations MARC MILLER. They will meet Williams Lake First Nation Chief WILLIE SELLARS, council members, elders, residential school Survivors and community members. 10 a.m. Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND will attend the national caucus meeting. “Private meetings” are also on her public-facing day planner. 9 a.m. The Parliamentary Budget Officer releases a new report titled “The Federal Cost of Minimum Sentences.” 10 a.m. NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will attend his party’s national caucus meeting. Singh and NDP MP HEATHER MCPHERSON are slated to meet with the Social Democratic Party of Germany delegation at 4 p.m. 10 a.m. Québec Government Office in Washington and the Canadian American Business Council host a virtual discussion on the state of cross-border supply chains with North American Rebound members: Manufacturiers et Exportateurs du Québec, CN Rail, GM and the Canadian American Business Council. 11:40 a.m. (ET) Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON speaks at GLOBE 2022 in Vancouver at a panel about “A Renewed U.S.-Canada Approach to Accelerating Climate Action.” He is scheduled to speak on a cleantech panel at 2:55 p.m. ET. 2 p.m. On the notice paper via Heritage Minister PABLO RODRIGUEZ: “An Act respecting online communications platforms that make news content available to persons in Canada.” 3:30 p.m. Dr. ISAAC BOGOSH and Dr. EMILIA LIANA FALCONE are on the witness list at today’s House health committee meeting for MPs’ study of the Covid-19 pandemic.
| | MEDIA ROOM | | — APTN National News reports on Métis and Inuit delegates visiting with the pope. On Twitter, journalist BRANDI MORIN shared an FYI: “This is NOT reconciliation.” — KAMAL AL-SOLAYLEE joined MENAKA RAMAN-WILMS on The Decibel pod to talk about “the war we chose to forget.” — "The simple math of climate change is even harder to avoid now," the CBC's AARON WHERRY writes. "And if Canadian leaders don't move as boldly as possible in the short term, it might be just that much harder to reduce emissions later." — CARL MEYER of The Narwhal reports that three major Canadian banks and a lobby group representing some 60 domestic and foreign banks have asked Canadian regulators to delay climate transparency rules — ELIZABETH FRASER, graduate student at the Max Bell School of Public Policy, writes on the financialization of the housing market. — DAVID HERLE is in the hot seat on the Uncommons pod with host Toronto MP NATHANIEL ERSKINE SMITH. — The House industry committee has released a report on the acquisition of Neo-Lithium. ANJA KARADEGLIJA reports on its findings.
| | PROZONE | | If you’re a POLITICO Pro , don’t miss ANDY BLATCHFORD’s latest policy newsletter: T-minus 9 days until Budget 2022. In other headlines for Pros:
— Will there be a boost to Canadian military spending? All eyes are on Freeland.
— Canada’s new climate plan ups the ante on oil and gas.
— U.S. Treasury: More Western sanctions to target Russian economy, supply chains.
— BA.2 now dominant variant in the United States.
— Biden’s budget a ‘peace offering’ that could restart stalled economic agenda.
| | Playbookers | | Birthdays: HBD to RAY NOVAK, Stephen Harper's fourth Chief of Staff. … Former Quebec politicians LIZA FRULLA and MARCEL TREMBLAY and YVES SÉGUIN also celebrate today. Happy belated bday to PMO’s CAMERON AHMAD. Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com. Movers and shakers: SHAWN STEIL has been named Canada’s ambassador to Vietnam … TALEESHA THOROGOOD has joined Crestview Strategy in Western Canada. Spotted: Liberal MP and Olympian PETER FONSECA, cheering in the House for the FIFA-bound Canada's men’s soccer team. “Go, Canada, go!” The Victoria Barber Shop in the parliamentary core, dropping some BOLD-FACED NAMES in its bid to sell what it says is the most famous chair in Ottawa. “Probably.” Among the occupants of the barber chair — going for C$1,000, or best offer — it touts FRANK MAHOVLICH, MARC GARNEAU, PAUL MARTIN and “MANY MORE!!!” MP KODY BLOIS joined ERIN GOWRILUK and ANDRE HARPE at Monday night’s gathering of the Grain Growers of Canada . U.S. Ambo DAVID COHEN visiting the best coast, shaking hands with B.C. Premier JOHN HORGAN in Vancouver … and meeting with TRUDEAU … and JONATHAN WILKINSON in twin poses … Defense Minister ANITA ANAND, talking F-35s with U.S. counterpart LLOYD AUSTIN. … Saskatchewan Premier SCOTT MOE, in the U.K. to open a new trade office. Media mentions: STEPHANIE MACLELLAN has joined the National Institute of Ageing. Farewells: Former Canadian senator and journalist JOYCE FAIRBAIRN has died, the CBC reports. Chief Government Whip STEVE MACKINNON paid tribute to Sens’ owner EUGENE MELNYK on the way into the House Tuesday: “Mr. Melnyk came along at a very difficult time in Ottawa’s professional sports history and did wonders to save professional sports and professional hockey in the nation’s capital,” he said. “We need to be very thankful for that.” The NHL team owner died Monday. Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com.
| | On the Hill | | 12 p.m. The Senate’s veterans affairs subcommittee gathers for an “organizational meeting.” 3:30 p.m. The House official languages committee meets to study Francophone immigration. 3:30 p.m. The CAF’s Force Development Chief Major General STEPHEN KELSEY is at the House national defense committee to answer questions about threat analysis and operational readiness. 4 p.m. Pandemic Observance Day and a Senate bill proposing a national framework on autism spectrum disorder are on the agenda for senators on the social affairs, science and technology committee. 4:15 p.m. The Senate’s legal and constitutional affairs meets in-camera to hear from a “MG Freesites” witness in relation to its study of a bill restricting youth access to online porn. 6:30 p.m. “An update on the labor market” is the topic du jour at today’s Senate banking, trade and commerce committee meeting. Witnesses include Canadian Labour Congress President BEA BRUSKE and Business Development Bank of Canada Chief Economist PIERRE CLÉROUX. 6:30 p.m. The Senate’s transport and communications committee continues its study of the impacts of climate change with testimony from Council of Canadian Academies representatives. Behind closed doors: The House natural resources meets to consider a draft report of its emissions reduction fund (onshore program) study.
| | TRIVIA | | Tuesday’s answer: JUDY LAMARSH said, “Pity the party without enough woman power.” On Monday when she shared news of Ontario’s child care deal, Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND paid tribute to LaMarsh, LAURA SABIA and MONIQUE BEGIN, “who convinced the government to establish a Royal Commission on the Status of Women, back in 1967.” Sabia, an activist and feminist, was also mother to Freeland’s No. 2, Deputy Finance Minister MICHAEL SABIA. Props to ANNE-MARIE STACEY, ALBERT MINER, MICHAEL MACDONALD, KEVIN BOSCH, BOB GORDON, JOHN GUOBA, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, HARRY MCKONE, AMY BOUGHNER and BEN ROTH. Wednesday’s question: Who met at the so-called SkyDome Summit? Bonus marks: What did they discuss? Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Alejandra Waase to find out how: awaase@politico.com. Playbook wouldn’t happen without Luiza Ch. Savage and editor Sue Allan. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |  |
