That wasn't even close

From: POLITICO Ottawa Playbook - Tuesday Oct 04,2022 10:01 am

Oct 04, 2022

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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. I'm your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey, with Maura Forrest. Today we have fresh Quebec election results, right out of the oven. Plus, EVAN SOLOMON explains his next job in New York. And we compare and contrast rhetoric from the policy-minded finance minister and plain-speaking Tory leader.

DRIVING THE DAY

CAQ Leader François Legault makes his victory speech.

A second majority win for François Legault. | Paul Chiasson / The Canadian Press

QUEBEC VOTES — Eleven minutes. That's how quickly the CBC called Quebec's election after polls closed Monday at 8 p.m. FRANÇOIS LEGAULT, the right-of-center nationalist described in recent days by observers as grumpy, secured his second majority win.

Maybe he's a bit less grumpy now.

By the end of the evening, Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec was leading or elected in 89 seats on the strength of 41 percent of the vote. The real fight, as virtually every analyst had predicted, was for second place.

And in the end, that wasn't much of a contest either thanks to the dynamics of first-past-the-post democracy. DOMINIQUE ANGLADE's Liberals kept the Official Opposition, leading or elected in 23 seats. Anglade's crew racked up 14.4 percent of the vote.

ÉRIC DUHAIME's Conservatives convinced 13 percent of Quebecers to vote for their upstart populist approach. But Duhaime and all of his candidates lost their local races, winning the award for Least Efficient Vote.

Québec Solidaire finished third in the seat count with 10 — and collected almost 15 percent of the vote. The sovereigntist Parti Québécois won just three seats with a nearly identical popular vote. The four major opposition parties were separated by less than two percentage points. (Proportional representation advocates now have years of ammunition.)

— What Ottawa should think about today: Playbook reached out to MATTHEW DUBÉ, a former two-term NDP MP from Quebec now plying his trade as a senior associate at Proof Strategies.

Here's some of what stood out to Dubé as results poured in.

— Stubborn support for Liberals: "There's still strong bastions in the anglophone community and the allophone community. Despite the fact Quebec overall seems to be moving away from that traditional axis of language politics and national unity issues, it hasn't fully gone away."

— Where the Bloc fits in: "I suspect they're pleased. François Legault's approach is much more in line with what makes the Bloc successful. They're obviously a sovereigntist party, but their political success hinges upon pushing Quebec issues.

"I would bet that there'll be a slow, soft adjustment in how the Bloc speaks to these issues. They're not going to repudiate the PQ, but I think there'll be some adjustments in aligning where they're at with this strong majority government in Quebec City."

— The NDP's takeaways: "A Québec Solidaire win in Sherbrooke is positive for the NDP, because that's a student vote, that's a bigger city, and it's a place the NDP held in 2015 — and did very well in defeat in 2019. With a well-thought-out campaign, there's a lot of positives in here for the NDP. But there's also a lot of reminders of where the challenges are, especially outside of Montreal."

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For your radar

SHE SAID, HE SAID — Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND headed to the House of Commons finance committee Monday afternoon to defend the Liberals’ plan to fight inflation — i.e. doubling the GST credit for six months, launching a dental benefit for uninsured children, and providing a C$500 top-up for low-income renters.

At roughly the same time, Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE left the Commons and walked back to his office, along hallways and up staircases, all the while filming a selfie video for his supporters. He spoke about what he believes the Liberals should be doing — i.e. scrapping the carbon tax, which the Liberals plan to increase from C$50 per metric ton today to C$170 in 2030 (though most of that money is rebated to households), and canceling increases to CPP and EI premiums, which he calls payroll taxes.

It was a moment that crystallized how Canada’s two major political parties are talking to Canadians about one of the major issues of the day. Here are bits of what they had to say, so you can gauge for yourself.

Freeland: “Our government believes that today, we need to find a balance, and the balance needs to be between providing support to Canadians, targeted support to the most vulnerable who need it, while maintaining real fiscal responsibility.”

Poilievre: “You shouldn’t raise taxes when people can’t afford to feed themselves. When you can’t afford to eat, heat or house yourself, you shouldn’t be paying more taxes. Pretty simple, right?”

Freeland: “The bill that we are chiefly discussing today won’t solve everything and I think it’s important for us not to claim otherwise. But it will provide real support, real inflation relief for 11 million Canadian households, for people who really need that help.”

Poilievre: “Remember, they’re planning to raise your payroll tax to shrink your paycheck, and then they want to triple, triple, triple the carbon tax to make it more expensive for you to buy groceries, gas your car and heat your home. I say, enough.”

Freeland: “A price on pollution is by far the most economically effective way to achieve climate action. Our government knows it’s the right thing to do.

Poilievre: “I’m telling you today, I’m joining with you, we’re locking arms. We’re going to keep fighting. We’re going to defeat these tax hikes.”

EXIT INTERVIEWS

SO LONG, OTTAWA — CTV News is in the market for a new face of its Hill broadcasts. EVAN SOLOMON, the host of Power Play and Question Period — and a daily talk radio show to boot — is taking his talents to the Big Apple.

Solomon dropped the bombshell Monday. His next gig: publisher at GZERO Media, an outfit under the umbrella of the global risk consultancy known as the Eurasia Group. (Conspiracy theorists, take your mark. Longtime Trudeau whisperer GERRY BUTTS is Eurasia's vice-chair.)

— What's GZERO? The outlet's coverage is based on this premise : "No single power or group of powers is willing or able to set a global agenda. It's a world of many pretenders, but no leaders. Welcome to the GZERO."

Okay, but what is it really? And why leave a plum gig on the Hill? Solomon, a self-described "skeptical optimist," spoke at length to Playbook once he'd wrapped Monday's Power Play (his earpiece was still in when he met your host in the lobby).

Here's an interview edited for length and clarity. Solomon names (some) names.

Why leave a job where you interview the government’s biggest influences on a daily basis?

This is an incredible opportunity to do three things that I love. First, politics. Second, build a media company. This is a real opportunity to build GZERO as a player-coach. I get to build it, and I get to be on air. Three, to be with super, super smart people. And finally, I'd say to do a little good in the world.

And it's not a terrible thing to live in New York. So that was a pretty compelling job offer.

What exactly is GZERO?

The fundamental theme is to deal with nonpartisan ideas and to talk about global political issues and foreign policy, but in a way that is understandable, slightly irreverent, and that can actually reach an audience beyond a very small world (of foreign policy experts).

Readers and viewers don't hesitate to question journalistic independence. They want to know who owns things. What's GZERO's relationship with Eurasia Group?

I think the best analogy — not on scale, but on structure — is Bloomberg and Bloomberg News. Bloomberg started off as a terminal. And their job was to build terminals and to follow the markets. And they realized that while they do that really well — they have algorithms, they have experts, they have analysis — people need to understand the market. So they started Bloomberg Media, and they had an editorial wall between the two.

You've interviewed countless people in power over seven years at CTV. Who have you found the most honest or frank or direct?

— MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER: "She knew her job was to come on and defend her party. But she was always thoughtful. And she didn't just serve you up whatever wet, cold gruel the party may have told her."

— CARLA QUALTROUGH: "I remember interviewing her about the Phoenix pay system. It was a colossal disaster. She was in charge of it. She was so frank about it. I remember she said, ‘yeah, it could cost us more than a billion dollars.’ And she wasn't supposed to say it, but she's like, ‘I'm gonna tell people.’"

— JONATHAN WILKINSON: "We had a very fierce exchange on air just last week, and he wrote me a long note afterwards, debating the Parliamentary Budget Officer's report on the carbon tax. He's not trying to score a point. He's trying to say, 'This is what I believe.' "

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

10:30 a.m. NDP leader JAGMEET SINGH is in West Block to talk about "protecting workers' pensions and ensuring the Employment Insurance program is there for Canadians when they need it."

10:30 a.m. (11:30 AT) Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia where he will "make an announcement and hold a media availability." Ministers also in the room: SEAN FRASER, GINETTE PETITPAS TAYLOR, along with local MPs.

11:15 a.m. (12:15 AT) Trudeau will attend a briefing and meet with employees from the Canadian Hurricane Centre. The same entourage will join him.

11:30 a.m. The families of the victims of Flight PS752 assemble with supporters in front of the Supreme Court. They'll march to the Hill at 12. The families want the Iranians who shot down the plane investigated for war crimes. Transport Minister OMAR ALGHABRA will speak, as will Tory MP GARNETT GENUIS.

ASK US ANYTHING

TELL US WHAT YOU KNOW — What are you hearing that you need Playbook to know? What are you watching this fall? Send details.

MEDIA ROOM

— After the Globe reported on Hockey Canada's second fund to cover sexual assault claims made against players, federal Sport Minister PASCALE ST-ONGE called for new leadership at the organization.

— In the Hill Times, Green interim leader AMITA KUTTNER shares his lifelong personal struggle: "I’m the interim leader of a federal political party and I’m still thinking about killing myself."

— The Rover's CHRISTOPHER CURTIS writes on LEGAULT's big win: "There will be a reckoning and the CAQ will be made to answer for its anti-immigrant rhetoric."

— In the Globe and Mail, former central banker MARK CARNEY likely has some blue Liberals nodding along in his critique of the U.K. Tories: "While governments should provide targeted relief to those Canadians most affected by inflation, this is a time to reduce deficits, not grow them."

Don't miss Carney's policy prescriptions, including a fed-prov clean electricity grid, which sure sound like the backbone of a future party platform.

— ICYMI, Alberta politics watcher DAVE COURNOYER launched a Substack. First under the microscope: DANIELLE SMITH's Sovereignty Act.

PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro s, our latest policy newsletter by SUE ALLAN: Waiting on the watchdog

From MAURA FORREST this morning: More federal funding required to hit net-zero by 2050, report finds

In news for POLITICO Pro s:
— USTR sees ‘positive momentum’ in energy dispute talks with Mexico.
— Supreme Court directs Biden to weigh in on climate lawsuits.
— SCOTUS to hear challenge to tech liability protections.
— The Financial Stability Oversight Council warns crypto is possible systemic risk.
— Head of Zaporizhzhya nuclear plant released after Russian detainment.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD + 1 to Tory MP RACHAEL THOMAS. (h/t DAVID AKIN)

Movers and shakers: AL MONACO is retiring as president and CEO of Enbridge, effective the first day of next year. He'll also leave the company's board of directors. Board chair GREG EBEL will succeed Monaco, which means Enbridge is on the hunt for a new chair.

FARAH MOHAMED is president and CEO of Prince's Trust Canada … EnterpriseHealth vice-president KATIE HEELIS launches her firm’s strategic healthcare practice.

BROCK HARRISON, fresh off his long run in JASON KENNEY's office, starts a new job as manager of government relations for TC Energy (for the three Prairie provinces).

Crestview's ASHTON ARSENAULT is repping Canadians for Clean Prosperity, which hopes to bend federal ears on the "use of trade policy to meet Canada’s climate goals."

Hill + Knowlton's DON BOUDRIA is repping the Canadian charitable arm of European eyewear giant EssilorLuxottica. Top priority: "Raising awareness and educating government regarding vision impairment and eyecare solutions in Canada and abroad."

That entry in the lobbyist registry is no coincidence. Liberal MP JUDY SGRO's private member's bill calling for a national eyecare strategy is in a long line for second reading debate in the Commons.

The OneSight EssilorLuxottica Foundation is hosting an event today on the Hill that features MPs "from each of the parties." Bloc MP JULIE VIGNOLA is co-sponsoring the event. DAVE EPP and MICHAEL COOPER will bring support for Sgro's bill from the Tory benches. NDP MP CAROL HUGHES also supports the effort.

Cocktail circuit: The Canadian Council of Snowmobile Organizations hosts a reception at D'Arcy McGee's at 5:30 p.m. … Hispanic Day on the Hill crescendos at a 6 p.m. reception in the Sir John A Macdonald Building.

Spotted: Alberta UCP leadership favorite DANIELLE SMITH, hinting at a potential byelection if she takes the party reins on Thursday. CBC's JASON MARKUSOFF breaks down the politics at play.

Sen. PETER BOEHM, capturing the northern lights in Iqaluit.

PM Trudeau, bungee jumping north of Ottawa over the weekend with his kids (and, predictably, Canada Proud mocking him for letting loose.)

On the Hill

→ Find the latest House committee meetings here

→ Keep track of Senate committees here

9 a.m. Auditor General KAREN HOGAN will be at the Senate national finance committee.

9 a.m. Bill C-11 is the topic of discussion at the Senate transport and communications committee. Netflix’s policy director STÉPHANE CARDIN and Blue Ant Media CEO MICHAEL MACMILLAN and “content creator” FRÉDÉRIC BASTIEN FORREST are on the board as witnesses.

9 a.m. The Senate Indigenous peoples committee meets to hear from witnesses representing Métis Nation British Columbia, St. Mary’s First Nation, Thunderbird Partnership Foundation and Tsow-Tun Le Lum Society in its study of Ottawa’s responsibilities.

9 a.m. The Senate rules, procedure and rights of Parliament committee meets.

11 a.m. The House national defense committee will hear from RICHARD FADDEN, Trudeau’s ex-national security adviser, as part of its study about challenges facing Canada’s military.

11 a.m. The House procedure committee will hear from Speaker ANTHONY ROTA on hybrid proceedings.

11 a.m. The House official languages committee meets on Bill C-13.

11 a.m. ANDREA SKINNER , Hockey Canada’s interim board chair, is a witness at the House heritage committee’s study of “safe sport” in the country.

11 a.m. ArriveCAN Is now officially optional, but the House international trade committee will meet to continue its study of the app’s impacts and will hear from the Canada Airports Council, Tourism Industry Association of Canada and the Vancouver Airport Authority.

11:30 a.m. (9:30 MT) Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON is in Alberta to make a funding announcement for a renewable energy project.

3:30 p.m. Public Safety Minister MARCO MENDICINO is in the hot seat at the House public safety and national security committee to take questions about the government’s proposed handgun ban. Five officials from his department, CBSA, and the RCMP join the minister.

3:30 p.m. The House environment committee meets to continue its study of clean technologies. Witnesses include McGill professor and biomass expert DON SMITH, Kruger Energy’s JEAN LÉTOURNEAU and the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association’s BRIAN KINGSTON.

6:30 p.m. The special joint committee on medical assistance in dying meets to hear from mental health advocate MARK HENICK and representatives of the Ordre des psychologues du Québec.

6:30 p.m. The Senate banking, commerce and the economy committee meets to talk about Independent Senators Group Sen. LUCIE MONCION ’s public bill proposing federal initiatives “to ensure the financial stability of post-secondary institutions.”

6:30 p.m. After the Senate rises, senators on the Senate energy committee will meet to continue its study of hydrogen and will hear from the Canadian Gas Association’s KEVIN LARMER.

6:30 p.m. The red chamber’s agriculture and forestry committee will meet to continue its study of soil health with witnesses from Ducks Unlimited Canada, Soil Conservation Council of Canada and Compost Council of Canada.

6:30 p.m. The House special committee on Canada-China relations will start its three-hour meeting hearing from department officials.

— Behind closed doors: Three committees and one subcommittee meet in camera. Among them: the House public accounts committee meets to review a draft report of its study of the environmental watchdog’s audit of the government’s approach to just transition.

TRIVIA

Monday’s answer: The federal byelection in Mississauga–Lakeshore must be called by Nov. 26, six months after former Liberal MP SVEN SPENGEMANN resigned the seat.

Many readers guessed Nov. 28, precisely six months after Spengemann vacated the seat. But Elections Canada only received official notice of the vacancy on May 30, which was when the clock started running.

Props to GORDON RANDALL, KIERAN SZUCHEWYCZ and NANCI WAUGH.

Tuesday’s question: Since the end of World War 2, general elections have been held in all but one month. Name that month.

Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com.

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