Break's over

From: POLITICO Ottawa Playbook - Monday Apr 17,2023 10:01 am

Apr 17, 2023

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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. I’m your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey. Today, we're welcoming 330-plus MPs back to the city after a couple of weeks away. We've also got our eye on a tense labor situation and new inflation numbers. Plus, a sneak peek at the menu of a G-7 ministerial dinner in Japan.

Don't miss MAURA FORREST's must-read profile: Without KATIE TELFORD, there’s no JUSTIN TRUDEAU

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THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING

THE HOUSE IS BACK — SEAN MURPHY is a herder of cats, a skill the Earnscliffe senior consultant honed over nine years working for a party whip — first as a committee coordinator for the government whip in 2013, and last as chief of staff to the opposition whip.

— What to expect: Murphy knows how to get MPs where they need to be, and the post-Easter stretch is a slog for any whip's team. Playbook asked Murphy to guide us through five consecutive sitting weeks, which he called a "grind."

“The volume of work that is packed into the average sitting day can be brutal. MPs and staff will be stretched thin with packed committee agendas, caucus obligations, stakeholder engagements and the possibility of some late House duty for emergency or take note debates. And maybe, just maybe, a reception of two," he said.

— "The key to these long sitting blocks is momentum. The government will have the opportunity to build momentum for key legislation like the Budget Implementation Act (BIA) that is expected to be tabled this week.

"I’ll be interested to see not if but when the NDP agrees to cut off debate on the BIA, and what kind of timelines are imposed at the various committees that will end up studying the measures in the bill.

— Budget watchdog: "I’ll also be interested to see how some of the measures announced in last month’s budget will be executed and which ones will be left out to, uh, pursue more consultation," Murphy told Playbook.

"Budget watchers will know that some things get initiated pretty quickly, while others get announced and re-announced repeatedly (Canada Growth Fund, anyone?). It’s a subcategory of Deliverology called Delayverology."

LABOR STRIFE — The Public Service Alliance of Canada's three most powerful execs will walk into the J.K. Wylie Boardroom at their Gilmour Street HQ in Ottawa at 9 a.m. with an update on high-stakes collective bargaining negotiations.

National president CHRIS AYLWARD, national executive VP SHARON DESOUSA and Quebec regional executive VP YVON BARRIÈRE will tell reporters what they can about marathon talks on behalf of 155,000 public servants.

The union members' common employer is the Treasury Board, led by president MONA FORTIER — many of whose constituents are PSAC members. CBC has an extensive primer on the union's asks, including the most recent wage proposals from both sides of the table.

Negotiations carried on over the weekend. Aylward characterized the talks as one final chance to make a deal: "This is the government’s last opportunity to show workers the respect they deserve. Workers can’t wait, and we’re ready to take strike action."

The government surely wants to avoid a strike and the waterfall of negative headlines.

— Liberal vs. NDP: A strike could make things awkward for the governing partners on the Hill. This government maintains rosy relationships with auto workers and other private-sector unions, but Fortier isn't buddy-buddy with PSAC.

JAGMEET SINGH's chief of staff, JENNIFER HOWARD, was PSAC's executive director for three years until she joined the leader's office before the 2019 election.

The NDP's executive council still maintains direct links to organized labor.

Will that make things awkward? What of the government's "no surprises" guarantee that keeps the Liberal-NDP deal humming? Playbook asked CAM HOLMSTROM, principal of Niipaawi Strategies and a former Hill staffer for three NDP MPs, to look into his crystal ball.

— The easy way: "If the Liberals decide to get to the table and get to a resolution, that solves all problems for all sides," Holmstrom said.

— The hard way: "If the Liberals decide to take a confrontational approach, it could become a proof point for the NDP that the government's pledges on labor issues are weak. If there is a strike and Liberals bring 'back-to-work' legislation, the Conservatives will back the government and will allow the NDP to oppose it.

"While I don’t think labor unrest will crack the relationship, how the Liberals act could raise questions inside the NDP camp that could build into something more fractious down the road.”

— What's next: Aylward's facial expression as he opens his remarks will say it all.

INFLATION WATCH — PIERRE POILIEVRE gets to update all his cost-of-living graphics and talking points first thing Tuesday morning. Statistics Canada drops new consumer price index data for March, and all the bank economists are projecting the same trend.

— The arrows are pointing down: The headline year-over-year increase in the CPI for February was 5.2 percent, the eighth-consecutive month in which the pace of inflation slowed. RBC expects more of that, projecting a 4.1 percent increase. CIBC says 4.3. Desjardins pegs it at 4.4. Scotiabank went with 4.5.

The Bank of Canada's target of 1-3 percent — and the sweet spot of 2.0 — edges one month closer.

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the National Capital Region, and then taking personal time in Montreal.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in private meetings in Ottawa.

8:40 a.m. Trudeau will tour a research and development lab and meet with workers. He will be joined by Innovation Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE and Trade Minister MARY NG.

9 a.m. Trudeau will make an announcement on "innovation and technology jobs."

2 p.m. NDP leader JAGMEET SINGH speaks to reporters in West Block.

2:15 p.m. Singh will attend QP.

3:15 p.m. Singh will request an emergency debate on the rise of islamophobia and anti-semitism.

3:30 p.m. Public Safety Minister MARCO MENDICINO will be at the House justice committee in its first hour to take questions on Bill C-41.

3:45 p.m. Singh will meet with the Union of British Columbia Indian Chiefs.

4 p.m. Health Minister JEAN-YVES DUCLOS is a witness at the Senate official language committee’s study on minority-language health services.

6:30 p.m. PIERRE RIEL, Costco’s executive VP and chief operating officer, will be at the House agriculture committee to take questions on food inflation. In the second hour, MPs will hear from witnesses from 100km Foods Inc., Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives and Farm Credit Canada.

9 p.m. Singh will attend the NDP Northwest Territories nomination meeting.

MEDIA ROOM

— JASON MARKUSOFF guest hosts West of Centre, which features JANET BROWN on her latest poll and insight from DUANE BRATT and RISHI NAGAR. Stick around until the end for predictions. (Not actually — they all say the Alberta election is too close to call.)

— There are 103 million crisis migrants in the world, many following dangerous routes to uncertain destinations. DOUG SAUNDERS and JEREMY AGIUS share a global view of the displaced.

— The Hub Roundtable is on video this week — should you wish to listen and watch RUDYARD GRIFFITHS rant for a stretch about the Trudeau Foundation.

— The Star poses this question via KIERAN LEAVITT: “What happens when the person in charge of fixing the health system seems to be a skeptic?”

— On Good Talk, CHANTAL HÉBERT drops some names — JOHN TURNER, KIM CAMPBELL, PAUL MARTIN — as a caution about replacing leaders with would-be party saviors, a theme she also explores in her latest column.

— ERIN O'TOOLE has a history lesson on the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians. His recommendation: Make it accountable directly to Parliament.

For your radar

CLEAN ENERGY WEEKEND — Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON and Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT came away from G-7 meetings in Sapporo, Japan, with multilateral commitments on fossil fuel subsidy phaseouts, renewable energy production targets, global carbon markets, and ESG standards for critical minerals.

— And LNG, too: Reuters spotted a communiqué acknowledgment of the benefits of gas investment, "subject to clearly defined national circumstances, and if implemented in a manner consistent with our climate objectives and without creating lock-in effects."

The ministers added a big caveat: The "primary need" is to "accelerate the clean energy transition through energy savings and gas demand reduction."

— Dinnertime: At a Saturday night dinner, Wilkinson sat next to bilat buddy and U.S. Energy Secretary JENNIFER GRANHOLM. Also at the table: Japan's NISHIMURA YASUTOSHI, the U.K.'s GRANT SHAPPS, and France's AGNÈS PANNIER-RUNACHER.

Among Guilbeault's tablemates: U.S. climate envoy JOHN KERRY.

— On the menu: sake and wasabi sorbet.

PAPER TRAIL

VOX POPULI — The results of government-commissioned focus groups and polling tell part of the story of CHRYSTIA FREELAND's fiscal update last November — and also sound familiar in the context of Budget 2023's affordability measures and deficit projections.

— The pollster: Environics Research, which was paid C$279,189.10 (including HST)

— Tight-beltening households: The economic mood of the nation was souring when Environics was in the field last September and October.

Focus group participants reported a lengthy list of money-saving techniques: "using coupons, eating out less, changing eating habits, buying in bulk … driving less and being efficient with trips, buying used instead of new, less discretionary spending in general, acquiring additional jobs, delaying purchases, and accumulating debt."

— Who's to blame: The participants "largely understood that the causes of the current inflation are multifactorial and commonly cited pandemic-related supply chain issues and scarcity of goods." But they also pointed the finger at "corporate greed and the idea that companies are trying to recuperate their losses from COVID-19, using inflation as an excuse to increase their prices."

PIERRE POILIEVRE would nod along as he read this: "Some felt inflation had been caused by too much government spending during the pandemic, and a perception that the Bank of Canada had printed too much money."

"Many participants expressed concerns about the impact of rising interest rates," the report went on, "and they were often confused about how higher rates — a measure that was seen to cause people’s day to day expenses to increase — could also be a way of reducing inflation and making life more affordable."

— Government advice: Asked how Ottawa could help with the cost of living, "many found it challenging to come up with ideas for how the federal government could do this."

— Balancing the budget: Freeland's November fiscal update did project black ink in 2027–28, but it was all deficits all the time in her March 28 budget. Most focus-group participants wanted a path to surplus, but they were in no rush: "There was no desire for any drastic action to quickly eliminate the deficit."

— Hard numbers: A survey of 2,106 respondents asked which expenses gave the most grief. Groceries and housing were tied at 24 percent apiece. Gas was the top concern of 8 percent, with utilities following at 7 percent.

— Health care: Two-thirds agreed the feds "should provide more permanent health care funding to provinces, even if it adds to the deficit."

— Deep pockets: Three-quarters of those polled want big corporations and the top one percent of income earners to pay more tax. Seventy percent also think financial institutions should pony up more (up from 60 percent earlier in 2022).

PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro s, our latest policy newsletter from ZI-ANN LUM: 5 words, 1 week: ‘chaotic,’ ‘disjointed,’ ‘kind of depressing.’

In other news for Pro s:
— ‘Almost a quarter of the way': Canada claims progress on emissions.
— U.S. and Mexico announce more actions against fentanyl.
— World's fractured financial leaders grasp for unity.
— Russian oil exports hit new high despite sanctions, IEA reports.
— Top 5 takeaways from POLITICO Pro’s briefing on defense issues.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to Alberta NDP Leader RACHEL NOTLEY. Historian and journalist GWYNNE DYER is 80.

Spotted: Buds and flowers, all over Ottawa (we made it) … Holdout snow piles (scram) … An AMERICAN GOLDFINCH and KILLDEER along the Ottawa River bike path.

Rules for the Ontario Liberal leadership race: C$100,000 entry fee plus a C$25,000 deposit, candidate registration deadline of Sept. 5, voting membership deadline of Sept. 11 (students get to weeks on top of that). The party will host five debates. Members will elect a new leader by ranked ballot on Nov. 26.

Retired senator JIM MUNSON, taking in son CLAUDE's show at the Rainbow in the Market … Former ethics commissioner MARIO DION, looking for mentees.

Movers and shakers: The Department of National Defence's head speechwriter, ELANA APTOWITZER, is moving to Toronto for a new gig as d-comm for Ontario’s Ministry of Environment, Conservation, and Parks.

Blackbird Strategies CEO LISA KIRBIE received an honorary doctorate from Loyalist College.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

On the Hill

— Find the latest House committee meetings here.

— Keep track of Senate committees here.

10 a.m. B’nai Brith Canada holds a press conference in West Block to announce findings from its annual audit of anti-Semitic incidents in Canada.

11 a.m. Chief ALLAN ADAM of the Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation has accused Imperial Oil Ltd. of a nine-month coverup over a massive leak of toxic oil sands tailings. He’ll be the first witness up as the House environment committee picks up a study of the crisis.

11 a.m. The House fisheries and oceans committee is studying pinniped populations — that is, seals and walruses — and will consult the Fur Institute of Canada, Harbour Grace Shrimp Company Limited, lawyer AAJU PETER, Canadian Centre for Fisheries Innovation and Newfoundland MLA CRAIG PARDY.

11 a.m. The House heritage committee will consult Charity Intelligence Canada, Coaching Association of Canada and the Sport Information Resource Centre as its study of safe sport continues.

11 a.m. The joint committee for the scrutiny of regulations will meet to discuss statutory instruments.

11 a.m. KAREN HOGAN and her team will be at the House public accounts committee as it studies the AG’s report on accessible transportation for persons with disabilities. On the roster: Canadian Air Transport Security Authority, Canadian Transportation Agency and VIA Rail Canada Inc.

3:30 p.m. Student ELLA ESTEY is the lead-off witness at the House Indigenous and Northern Affairs committee studying graduation rates and successful outcomes of Indigenous students. The Congress of Aboriginal Peoples, Lac Seul First Nation and the National Indigenous Advocacy Committee will appear in the second hour.

3:30 p.m. Department officials will be on hand as the House citizenship and immigration committee runs through Bill S-245.

3:30 p.m. On the agenda at House operations: Committee business.

3:30 p.m. Aluminium Association of Canada president JEAN SIMARD will be first up at the House industry committee. On the agenda: “Development and Support of the Electronics, Metals and Plastics Recycling Industry.” The Chemistry Industry Association of Canada, Glencore Canada and Kelleher Environmental will also appear.

3:30 p.m. MICHELLE DOUGLAS, executive director of the LGBT Purge Fund, will be a witness at the House veterans affairs committee as it studies the experiences of women veterans.

— Behind closed doors: The House international trade committee will discuss its report on the Inflation Reduction Act. The House Canada-China committee will also be at work on a draft report. The Senate human rights committee meets to review a draft of its report on Islamophobia in Canada.

TRIVIA

Thursday’s answer: Sen. MARGARET DAWN ANDERSON. Read more about how a decade-long federal policy that introduced “Eskimo identification” numbers impacted Anderson’s family here.

Props to BRAM ABRAMSON, BOB GORDON, JOANNA PLATER, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, and LAURA JARVAIS.

Monday's question: An infamous constitutional clause came into effect on this day 41 years ago. In which document is it contained?

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: Luiza Ch. Savage, Sue Allan and David Cohen.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

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