HE'S IN — NATE ERSKINE-SMITH wants to be Ontario premier. His months-long teasing of a run for provincial Liberal leader came to an end Monday. Erskine-Smith will formally launch his campaign in Scarborough, Ont., at Variety Village, a children's charity in the riding next door to the federal seat he's held since 2015. The Star was first to report the maverick-ish Toronto MP's formal entry into the race. He told the paper he won't run in the provincial byelection in Scarborough–Guildwood that will be triggered by Liberal MPP MITZIE HUNTER's resignation as she throws her hat in for Toronto mayor. — From the horse's mouth: Playbook got on the phone with Erskine-Smith on Monday afternoon. — When he decided to run: Last June, sort of. The provincial Liberals' second-consecutive disastrous third-place finish to DOUG FORD's Progressive Conservatives and ANDREA HORWATH's NDP got Erskine-Smith thinking about entering the race for a new Grit boss. There was no eureka moment, though. He says a team slowly coalesced to the point that a run seemed feasible. — Room for nuance? Erskine-Smith isn't a high-flying rhetoric kind of guy. He posts long policy-oriented videos on social media that don't typically go viral. He hosts a podcast, Uncommons, where the whole point is to have long conversations about politics and policy. Will nuance work in a leadership race or a general election? "There's such an utter lack of seriousness and competence to the politics we see at Queen's Park right now. And so I think across party lines, there is a desire for seriousness, thoughtfulness and competence," he said. He also served up a shorter answer: "I guess we're about to find out." — What he'd give up: If he wins the leadership and moves on from his time in Ottawa — as an MP, anyway — Erskine-Smith says he'll miss raising a "principled independent" voice that occasionally clashed with his own government. The National Post pegged the MP's number of dissenting votes at 37 in the first term alone. More recently, he doubted his government's judgment in invoking the Emergencies Act — but stopped short of voting against ("a speech that will make no one happy," he said then.). "I have played an accountability function and pushed the government to be better," he told Playbook. "I'll miss being the squeaky wheel in some ways." — Endorsement watch: Erskine-Smith says he will enter the provincial race with significant caucus support. He didn't name names, though in the riding where he is going to launch the local MP is Emergency Preparedness Minister and former Toronto police chief BILL BLAIR. "You will see that not only have I managed to maintain a strong voice on behalf of my community, but the idea that I'm not a team player will be put to bed when people see I'm surrounded by my team," he told Playbook. — He's not resigning yet: The question of vacating his federal seat is clearly preoccupying the three-term MP. It's an "active conversation," he says, and he's aiming to make a final call when Parliament's spring sitting ends in June. There are reasons to stay, including a private member's bill working its way through the House that would force the government to review its pandemic response and set out a preparedness plan for future crises. "I'm also cognizant that if I'm unable to do the job on behalf of the riding, then it's best to step away and commit myself 100 percent to the leadership race," he said. "There's no rush to this decision, but it's an active conversation. And we're gonna sort it out over the summer and make a decision about the fall." — Timelines: The last day to sign up voting Liberal members is Sept. 11. They'll cast ballots on Nov. 25 and 26. The party will announce the result on Dec. 2. BYELECTION BONANZA — It's not clear if Liberal MP YASIR NAQVI will keep his federal seat if — okay, when — he enters the provincial race. An opening in Ottawa Centre would invite inevitable speculation about MARK CARNEY's interest in elected politics. Carney wasn't on the agenda at the Liberal convention, but he worked the reception circuit — posting up at the National Capital Region caucus bash at Lowertown Brewery in the ByWard Market. — A long list: The late JIM CARR's son, BEN CARR, is the party candidate in Winnipeg South Centre. Carr talked byelection strategy with the PM at the convention. — The full tally: If both resigned at the end of the spring session, they'd bring to eight the number of federal ridings in need of a byelection, including four vacated by Conservatives: Durham (ERIN O'TOOLE), Portage—Lisgar (CANDICE BERGEN), Calgary Heritage (BOB BENZEN) and Oxford (DAVE MACKENZIE). Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount (MARC GARNEAU) rounds out the list. Know someone who could use Ottawa Playbook? Direct them to this link . Five days a week, zero dollars.
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