Hornets vs. Mother Nature

From: POLITICO Ottawa Playbook - Tuesday Nov 14,2023 11:02 am
Presented by Google Canada: A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.
Nov 14, 2023 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Kyle Duggan

Presented by

Google Canada

Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Nick | Follow Politico Canada

Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook.

In today's edition:

→ We have a new trivia night on the calendar for Washington.

PIERRE POILIEVRE tried to own the break week news cycle.

→ Did you notice the lack of CF-18s in Ottawa on Remembrance Day? We have answers.

TALK OF THE TOWN

SAVE THE DATE — Playbook is headed back to Washington in December. We're hosting our second trivia night of the year.

— Join us in Washington: We're calling all Canada-U.S. geeks in the other nation's capital to Playbook Trivia on Monday, Dec. 4 at Astro Beer Hall, a space race-themed venue a couple of blocks from the White House. Doors open at 7 p.m. First question at 7:30.

We'll have a special guest and returning quizmaster: Ambassador KIRSTEN HILLMAN.

Registration is open. Space is limited. RSVP via this Google Form. Please don't send your RSVP via email. Please do send news tips and gossip.

 

A message from Google Canada:

We help defend critical infrastructure in Canada.

Critical infrastructure has become an increasingly common target for cyberattacks. That’s why Google is working with organizations across the country to help protect the infrastructure we rely on. When these organizations run on Google Cloud, we can help protect them with the same AI-powered security that protects Google.

Explore how Google is helping to keep Canadians safe online at g.co/safety/cyber.

 
DRIVING THE DAY

BREAK WEEK OFFENSIVE — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE kicked off a week away from Ottawa with a spirited press conference in Vancouver. He mixed his anti-Trudeau greatest hits with a few new tracks that could set the tone for the parliamentary sprint to Christmas.

Four takeaways from a West Coast presser:

— He wants the union vote: Poilievre refused to take a position on Bill C-58, Labor Minister SEAMUS O'REGAN's legislative attempt to ban replacement workers.

"We're going to study the legislation," he said. "I never take a position before I have had a chance to actually look at what's written down on paper."

The smooth-talking Conservative pivoted hard to talking points, blaming a spate of high-profile strikes on inflation caused by federal spending.

"I don't blame the workers who are voting for strikes right now because after eight years of Trudeau, inflation is raging out of control," Poilievre said. "Whenever you have raging inflation you have strikes. Why? Because workers have to fight tooth and nail to recover the lost purchasing power on their paychecks."

Poilievre didn't distinguish between organized labor and the rest of the workforce. "Conservatives are 100 percent on-side with workers, union and non-union, who are fighting for pay hikes," he told reporters.

The labor leaders who surrounded O'Regan at Thursday's C-58 press conference, and fêted the bill at an evening reception in the minister's office, might welcome that support — but they'd be doing backflips if the CPC supported the replacement worker ban.

— He'll go to war for C-234: Poilievre is continuing to ramp up pressure on the Liberal government to pass Bill C-234, which would create another carbon tax carve-out.

Conservative Senators blamed the upper chamber for shutting down debate last week in the final stages for the private member’s bill before royal assent.

“We now know that JUSTIN TRUDEAU’s top ministers had been frantically calling senators begging them to block this bill,” Poilievre asserted Monday.

Playbook has confirmed that unnamed Cabinet ministers were lobbying senators — a campaign that backfired, failing to turn the tide on a key procedural vote.

It's unclear if Poilievre's "full-on campaign" meant to sway senators will have more success.

C-234 exempts natural gas and propane used on farms for grain-drying, as well as heating of barns, from the federal carbon price. But opponents argue it incentivizes climate inaction.

“The drama’s now building,” Poilievre said, pointing to the fact that Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT has vowed no further carbon tax carve-outs after the Liberals exempted home heating oil — a measure that benefits Atlantic Canadians in greater proportions than other parts of Canada.

— He doesn't have zero climate policy: The Liberal knock against Poilievre's standard anti-carbon tax screed is that he has no plan to reduce emissions — and that Conservatives don't believe in the science behind human-caused climate change.

Poilievre has largely limited his emissions-reduction pitch to "Technology not taxes," a principle also adopted by the Australian government in 2021 as part of a plan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. (That plan has its critics down under.)

The Tory leader pitched a few examples Monday. Liberals, New Democrats, Bloquistes and Greens who support carbon pricing and additional regulatory solutions will surely groan.

Poilievre would speed up approvals for hydroelectric, tidal and nuclear power — including small modular reactors "in strategic locations where they maximize emissions reduction and minimize costs." Say, the oilsands, where SMRs — which have yet to be deployed in Canada — could "decarbonize the steam production and the electricity generation for the energy sector."

A reporter asked: What about expanding wind and solar energy?

"We should allow the market to determine the most reliable and cost-effective emissions-free energy that comes onto the grid," Poilievre replied, promising not to get in the way of provincially approved projects. "The role of the federal government is to incentivize and quickly approve projects that are environmentally responsible."

— Fraser is leading a 'traveling circus': Conservatives have accused Housing Minister SEAN FRASER of swiping Poilievre's carrot-and-stick approach to housing incentives. Fraser has inked deals with a growing list of major cities that guarantee millions in federal funding in exchange for zoning amendments that allow developers to build denser homes more quickly.

Poilievre's housing plan would, in part, boost funding to cities that beat homebuilding targets and withhold it from those that fall short.

Similar, right? Not according to Poilievre.

"Sean Fraser and Justin Trudeau have been paying off mayors to give federal Liberals credit for housing that was already going to be built," the Tory leader said, dismissing the deals as cash-fueled photo-ops the mayors would be crazy to turn down.

It's true photo-ops are part of the package, and every press release lavishes praise on local Liberal MPs who will definitely campaign on helping to hammer out a deal. But it's not all about repackaging pre-existing plans. Cities are rewriting zoning rules to allow — "legalize" is the minister's preferred word — more units on a single lot.

— Speaking of which: Fraser is in Calgary today to unveil the city's share of the C$4 billion Housing Accelerator Fund.

For your radar

PULSE CHECK — Even if establishment endorsements have little sway in high-profile leadership contests that involve tens of thousands of potential voters, the main contenders still rack them up and show them off.

— Key dates: Ontario's provincial Liberals will have a new leader within a month. The four contenders are BONNIE CROMBIE, YASIR NAQVI, NATE ERSKINE-SMITH and TED HSU. (Trivia: All four have served as MPs.)

The final leadership debate is scheduled for Nov. 19 at 1 p.m. Party members cast their ballots on Nov. 25 and Nov. 26, mostly in-person. The winner will be announced Dec. 2 at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre.

Here's how the federal caucus, which includes 76 MPs from Ontario, is split between the four contenders.

— Team Crombie: Fifteen Liberal MPs today sent a plea to Ontario Liberal Party members: Don't vote for their two caucus colleagues, Naqvi and Erskine-Smith. Cast a ballot for Crombie, the perceived frontrunner. (The party uses a ranked ballot, so voters can find room for every candidate in their preferred order. Naqvi and Erskine-Smith have urged supporters to rank each other second on their ballots.)

Etobicoke-Lakeshore MP JAMES MALONEY published the open letter on behalf of 14 caucus mates also endorsing Crombie: Willowdale MP ALI EHSASSI, Nepean MP CHANDRA ARYA, St. Catharines MP CHRIS BITTLE, Vaughan-Woodbridge MP FRANCESCO SORBARA, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell MP FRANCIS DROUIN, Mississauga-Erin Mills MP IQRA KHALID, Humber River-Black Creek MP JUDY SGRO, Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill MP LEAH TAYLOR ROY, Eglinton-Lawrence MP MARCO MENDICINO, Mississauga-Streetsville MP RECHIE VALDEZ, Etobicoke Centre MP YVAN BAKER, Nickel Belt MP MARC SERRÉ, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek MP CHAD COLLINS and Niagara Centre MP VANCE BADAWEY.

Ontario caucus share: 19.7 percent

— In Naqvi's corner: Ottawa Centre's MP has gobbled up most of the city's caucus endorsements: Kanata-Carleton MP JENNA SUDDS, Ottawa-Vanier MP MONA FORTIER, Orleans MP MARIE-FRANCE LALONDE and Ottawa West-Nepean MP ANITA VANDENBELD. Naqvi also snared nods from Parkdale-High Park MP ARIF VIRANI, Scarborough Centre MP SALMA ZAHID, Markham-Unionville MP PAUL CHIANG, Richmond Hill MP MAJID JOWHARI and Markham-Stouffville MP HELENA JACZEK.

Ontario caucus share: 13.15 percent

— Nate's names: Beaches-East York's MP netted the endorsements of Oakville-North Burlington MP PAM DAMOFF, Thunder Bay-Rainy River MP MARCUS POWLOWSKI, London North Centre MP PETER FRAGISKATOS, Toronto-Danforth MP JULIE DABRUSIN and Sudbury MP VIVIANE LAPOINTE.

Ontario caucus share: 7.9 percent

Erskine-Smith's appeal reaches into other corners of the Liberal caucus in Ottawa, including seven MPs from Quebec, two from New Brunswick, one from Prince Edward Island and one from British Columbia.

— Hsu's allies: The MPP for Kingston and the Islands has the support of his federal counterpart, MARK GERRETSEN.

Ontario caucus share: 1.3 percent

— On the agenda: Former Ontario premiers KATHLEEN WYNNE and DALTON MCGUINTY will be honored at the Ontario Liberal leadership convention, the Star’s ROBERT BENZIE reports.

 

Tune in as international security leaders from democracies around the world discuss key challenges at the 15th annual Halifax International Security Forum live from Nova Scotia. As an official media partner, POLITICO will livestream the conversation beginning at 3 p.m. on November 17. The Forum's full topical agenda can be found here.

 
 
ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR

EMPTY SKIES — Curious Ottawans sighed with disappointment — or maybe relief, if fighter jets aren't their thing — when the Canadian Armed Forces scrubbed a planned CF-18 flypast at Saturday's Remembrance Day Ceremony at the National War Memorial.

Did the decidedly meh weather, Playbook wondered, cancel the overhead roar?

Nope. Four CF-18s that would've taken to the skies were thwarted by icy conditions back at their base that couldn't be solved by de-icing. The safety risks ruled out a flypast.

— Bummer, man: Playbook got on the horn with Col. COLIN MARKS, 3 Wing Commander at CFB Bagotville in Quebec's Saguenay region, one of two bases for Canada's fighter fleet.

The cancelation was "kinda crummy," Marks said, because a Remembrance Day flypast is a career highlight for the pilots who score the assignment.

— Get in line: At Bagotville, the air force shares its runways — and de-icing equipment — with a civilian airport. The machine takes about 10 minutes to warm up each aircraft, one at a time. Once de-iced, each plane has a 5- to 15-minute window in which to take off.

That's where the math fell apart for the flight crews running the numbers. By the time the third aircraft was thawed, the first two would have ice on their wings. And it was too late to significantly modify a flight plan to send fewer jets.

— Fun fact: Canada's fleet is based at Bagotville and Cold Lake, Alta., two decidedly northern locales that commonly experience frigid temps. But de-icing is uncommon, said Marks, who has flown thousands of hours in CF-18s and has only de-iced a couple of times.

— We know what you're thinking: No, the suboptimal de-icing capability doesn't impact the CF-18s that are on alert to fulfill NORAD obligations — aka to scramble if necessary.

The jets that escort Russian aircraft or, say, shoot down balloons, are on "Quick Reaction Alert." They're housed in warm hangars where they can start their engines indoors and take off before pesky ice can ground them.

Chief of the Defense Staff Gen. WAYNE EYRE did blame freezing rain for a delay in scrambling a CF-18 to shoot down an object over Yukon in February. "I understand that the airstrip was a bit of a skating rink, as happens in northern Alberta," Eyre told a parliamentary committee in March. "In all operations, there is some friction."

— Still a crisis: The Globe and Mail recently reported on a military-commissioned study that raised the alarm about low morale and high attrition in the air force. "Urgent action must be taken now, before the decline becomes completely irreversible,” wrote JUSTIN BRONK of the Royal United Services Institute think tank.

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the Vancouver area before heading to the APEC Summit in San Francisco on Wednesday.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Toronto.

— Northwest Territories voters go to the polls today. Premier CAROLINE COCHRANE is not running for another term.

12 p.m. (9 a.m. PT) Tory Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE headlines a breakfast fundraiser at a private residence in Victoria.

12 p.m. NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH meets with the Toronto and York Region Labour Council.

12:30 p.m. Freeland will make a housing announcement and hold a media availability. Justice Minister ARIF VIRANI and Toronto Mayor OLIVIA CHOW will join.

12:30 p.m. Labor Minister SEAMUS O'REGAN hosts a town hall with union members in the auto hotspot of Windsor, Ont.

2 p.m. (1 p.m. CT) The Royal Canadian Mint in Winnipeg unveils the effigy of His Majesty KING CHARLES III by designer STEVEN ROSATI. Watch here. (A recent order-in-council described the Cabinet-approved coin designs. No photos in the OIC, though.)

4:15 p.m. (1:15 p.m. PT) Trudeau and B.C. Premier DAVID EBY will make a clean technology announcement alongside Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE, Energy Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON, Citizens' Services Minister TERRY BEECH, and B.C. Jobs Minister BRENDA BAILEY.

5:30 p.m. Singh meets with "tenant organizers" in Pape Village with CLARE HACKSEL, the party's candidate in Toronto-Danforth.

6:30 p.m. (3:30 p.m. PT) Trudeau will visit a grocery store.

7:20 p.m. (4:20 p.m. PT) Trudeau will visit a local business.

MEDIA ROOM

— Fresh polling in the Toronto Star from Abacus Data: 72 percent of respondents favor a carbon tax carve-out for all forms of home heating.

— Want to keep your house? Support your kids? Stay alive? Never stop working, CATHRIN BRADBURY advises in a feature for The Walrus.

— Top of POLITICO this hour: JOSH GERSTEIN on the U.S. Supreme Court’s new ethics code.

The Canadian Press reports: The average asking price for a rental unit in Canada reached $2,178 last month.

— Over on The Conversation, WILL GREAVES writes: Canada must stop treating climate disasters like unexpected humanitarian crises.

— From LENIN to NAPOLEON to SILVIO BERLUSCONI, POLITICO has rated the best political resurrections of all time.

— Noted in ABBAS RANA’s Trudeau speculation feature in The Hill Times, DAVID HERLE referencing J.R.R. TOLKIEN: “Everything I know about this [prime ministers leaving voluntarily] or needed to know about this, I learned from ‘The Lord of the Rings,’ ” Herle said. “Nobody ever gives up the ring. It can be taken from you, you can lose it, but nobody ever gives it up.”

PROZONE


Our latest policy newsletter for POLITICO Pro s by KYLE DUGGAN: On APEC’s unofficial agenda.

In other news for Pro s: 

Sweeping U.S. government report warns of ‘daunting’ climate fight.

 Protect forests, don’t plant new trees to fight climate change, scientists warn.

Partisan brawls threaten carbon pricing program.

EU seeking cash pledges for climate disaster fund.

The U.S. Treasury makes the economic case for climate policy.

Offshore wind is at a crossroads. Here’s what you need to know.

 

A message from Google Canada:

Advertisement Image

 
PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to MPs TIM UPPAL and CHARLIE ANGUS. HBD + 1 to CBC News senior producer PHILIP LING.

Send us birthdays: ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Spotted: Mental Health Minister YA'ARA SAKS and Montreal MP ANTHONY HOUSEFATHER in Washington, as part of the International Council of Jewish Parliamentarians.

From the ethics files: PM Trudeau recently declared the following pile of gifts to the ethics commissioner: snowshoe-stained glass art from GARRY BAILEY, president of the Northwest Territory Métis Nation; a sandook (wooden box) with brass etching from Indian PM NARENDRA MODI; a porcelain cake plate featuring a Portuguese shield from MARCELO REBELO DE SOUSA, the president of Portugal; two glass-bead medallions of moose from Lac La Ronge Council Members; beaver-skin mitts from JOYCE NAYTOWHOW MCLEOD of Montreal Lake Cree Nation Chief; framed birch-bark biting, presented to one of Trudeau's sons by VALERIE MCLEOD, executive director of the Woodland Wellness Centre; a four-piece silver tea set from ASEAN summit organizers; and a resin sculpture of Balinese dancers on a granite pedestal, from Indonesian President JOKO WIDODO.

Trudeau also forfeited three gifts (a requirement for any valued at C$1,000 or more): a framed painting by Ukrainian artist ALINA KOSENKO, a survivor of the Bucha massacre, from Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY; a framed oil painting by artist MEN SAGAN, also from Widodo; and a framed birch-bark biting by artist SALLY MILNE, from Milne herself during Trudeau's a visit to the site of a former residential school in Lac La Ronge, Sask.

Movers and shakers: The investment managers at LETKO BROSSEAU filed Oct. 18 meetings in the lobby registry with Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND, Freeland director of parliamentary affairs FAREES NATHOO, Finance DM CHRIS FORBES, Superintendent of Financial Institutions PETER ROUTLEDGE, and Sen. CLÉMENT GIGNAC. (In September, Playbook wrote about the firm's call for Canadian pension managers to invest more in Canadian companies.)

Media mentions: RICHARD MADAN has joined the CBC News team in D.C.

On the Hill

8:45 a.m. The House finance committee leaves the Hill, taking its pre-budget road show to Toronto where it will hear from former NDP MP ANDREW CASH, now CEO of the Canadian Independent Music Association; internet-famous mortgage broker RON BUTLER; KRISTA JONES of the MaRS Discovery District; the Canadian Federation of Independent Business’ CORINNE POHLMANN; the Toronto Region Board of Trade and more.

12 p.m. The House government operations committee meets to hear from MINH DOAN, Canada’s chief technology officer, on the controversial ArriveCAN App.

TRIVIA

Monday’s answer: The Parliamentary News Service (PNS) — a satellite TV service used by the Progressive Conservative Party to reach viewers outside of Ottawa without having to deal with the Parliamentary Press Gallery — was known by critics as Tory TV.

That question courtesy KYLE DUGGAN stumped every Playbook reader except for ROBERT MCDOUGALL.

Have another just as hard? Send it our way.

Today’s question: To the nearest millimeter, what is the circumference of a Canadian 50-cent coin?

Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Run a Playbook ad campaign. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, Luiza Ch. Savage and Emma Anderson.

 

Follow us on Twitter

Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey

Sue Allan @susan_allan

Maura Forrest @MauraForrest

Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan

Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum

POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

 

Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family

Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook

View all our political and policy newsletters

Follow us

Follow us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Instagram Listen on Apple Podcast
 

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings

This email was sent to by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

Please click here and follow the steps to .

More emails from POLITICO Ottawa Playbook

Nov 13,2023 11:01 am - Monday

Quiet before the storm

Nov 10,2023 11:03 am - Friday

The coming fiscal fight

Nov 09,2023 11:01 am - Thursday

Warnings of a Googlepocalypse

Nov 08,2023 11:00 am - Wednesday

Ottawa’s recycled climate debate

Nov 07,2023 11:01 am - Tuesday

MPs spent how much on overage fees?

Nov 06,2023 11:02 am - Monday

The best defense is a good defense

Nov 03,2023 10:01 am - Friday

Danielle Smith’s pension pantomime