Trump vs. DeSantis vs. who else?

By Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

NOT ‘IF,’ BUT ‘WHEN’ — RON KLAIN’s departure from the White House on Wednesday was a tear-stained affair — the outgoing chief of staff cried, as did President JOE BIDEN and some of the dozens of “Klainiac” staffers on hand whose loyalty to Klain runs deep and spans years. But Klain made news on his way out the door,effectively confirming that Biden would, in fact, run for reelection. “As I did in 1988, 2008 and 2020, I look forward to being on your side when you run for president in 2024,” Klain told Biden in his farewell speech. (Emphasis ours.) More from Reuters … Related read from Evan Osnos: “What Ron Klain Learned in the White House” 

Then-President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis depart after Trump signed executive orders on prescription drug prices in the South Court Auditorium at the White House on July 24, 2020 in Washington, DC. | Getty Images

NEW J-MART — “The Cold Calculus Behind the Shrinking GOP Presidential Field.” Would-be Republican White House aspirants face a harsh reality: It’s not just DONALD TRUMP who’s freezing the 2024 field, reports Jonathan Martin. As GOP strategist SCOTT JENNINGS puts it: “They don’t have a Trump problem, they have a [RON] DeSANTIS problem.”

But consider this:“[T]he history most on the minds of the Republicans considering the race, who are not named Trump or DeSantis, is what happens when there’s a bloody battle between top contenders. Spoiler: It augurs well for a third candidate.”

Who might that be? “Contenders have so far been unwilling to officially jump into the race, wary of becoming a sacrificial lamb on Mr. Trump’s altar of devastating nicknames and eternal fury,” write NYT’s Maggie Haberman, Michael Bender and Reid Epstein. “Republicans who hope to stop him worry that dithering by possible candidates could only strengthen Mr. Trump’s position — and could even lead to a field that is far smaller and weaker than many in the political world have anticipated.”

— Sure sounds like a candidate: This morning, former Maryland Gov. LARRY HOGAN will call in to HUGH HEWITT at 7:05 a.m., followed by two New Hampshire radio hits: WFEA-AM’s “Morning Update” at 7:38 a.m. and WGIR-AM’s “New Hampshire Today” at 8:08 a.m.

— So does he: “Sen. Tim Scott kicking off ‘Faith in America’ listening tour, including ads in key 2024 primary state,” by Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser. Notably: Sen. TIM SCOTT’s remarks in his home state of South Carolina come on Feb. 16 — one day after former Gov. NIKKI HALEY, who first appointed Scott to the U.S. Senate, is expected to launch her own presidential bid in the state.

— Playing it cool: “Cruz control: Texas Republican keeps his distance from 2024 White House hunt,” by Marianne LeVine

TRYING TO MEET THE MOMENT — This afternoon, a subset of the Congressional Black Caucus will sit down with President JOE BIDEN and VP KAMALA HARRIS to officially restart the push for police reform legislation following the funeral of TYRE NICHOLS, whose death last week at the hands of Memphis police has galvanized advocates for reform.

In conversations with people on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, we’ve felt a sickly déjà vu. Lawmakers and White House officials recognize they’ve been in this place before. Both suggest they’re eager to respond but feel limited in their ability to do so — constrained by political reality and the scope of their powers. There’s a resigned sense that little is left to do but run the same old stale playbook.

“I’m not optimistic. I’m not confident that we are going to be able to get real police reform,” said Rep. MAXINE WATERS (D-Calif.), who will attend the White House meeting. “I approach working on this issue as a responsibility that I have to do — that we must try.”

Black lawmakers have zeroed in on their first and biggest request of Biden: a commitment to talk about policing in next week’s State of the Union. One CBC member told us the group is even considering telling Biden exactly what they want him to say — and that they expect him to bang the drum until legislation hits the Oval Office.

“The president has unique powers,” said CBC Chair STEVEN HORSFORD (D-Nev.). “He can use his position to help — just like he did by getting the [Bipartisan] Safer Communities [gun control bill] across the finish line, just like he did with getting the infrastructure law across the finish line, just like he did getting the CHIPS and Science law across the finish line.”

But there’s also legislative reality. The CBC has discussed using the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act as a starting framework for any new agreement. Negotiations on that bill fell apart most recently in September 2021. Since then, the House has flipped hands and support in the Senate remains well short of a filibuster-proof 60 votes.

“Obviously, we can’t put this same exact bill up right now,” a senior Democratic aide involved in these conversations told Playbook. The uneasy truth for police reform advocates is that for any proposal to stand a shot at passing, they will have to scale back their ambitions.

CBC members know the onus is on them to bring a realistic legislative plan to Biden. And, short of that, they’re preparing a list of executive actions they want the administration to consider.

Even so, CBC members and their allies remain hopeful that Biden’s bully pulpit can move the needle. Next week’s State of the Union address will provide him with a massive audience. Members of Nichols’ family are expected to attend the speech as Horsford’s guests. Police reform advocates see the potential for a breakthrough moment.

“Good politicians are able to adapt to the weather,” MAURICE MITCHELL, the national director of the Working Families Party told us. “In the shadow of this horrific murder … the political climate has shifted. And so that requires a different type of politics — not the politics of two weeks ago or the politics of a year ago.” More from Eugene

Related reads: “Past defeats on police reform bedevil newly divided Congress,” by AP’s Farnoush Amiri … “VP Harris delivers emotional remarks at Tyre Nichols funeral: ‘We mourn with you,’” The Grio 

Good Thursday morning, and Happy Groundhog Day. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

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The solution is here. America lacks sufficient energy infrastructure to meet growing demand. $34 billion in major energy infrastructure projects were canceled, stalled, or are at risk of cancellation due to permitting and review delays. Modernizing and expanding infrastructure for natural gas, oil and renewables require permitting reform that supports timely, consistent and smart decisions.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy of Calif. talks with reporters outside the West Wing of the White House in Washington following his meeting with President Joe Biden, Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2023. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo

McCARTHY NEWLY OPTIMISTIC ON DEBT DEAL — It was the first time President Biden and House Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY met face to face and alone about the debt limit and, well, they agreed on one thing: It could’ve gone worse, our Adam Cancryn reports.

The two sides left repeating the same messages they had before they left. McCarthy says Congress is not going to pass a clean debt ceiling bill while the White House says any conversation about the debt ceiling must be decoupled from spending cuts.

— The White House’s view: “President Biden made clear that, as every other leader in both parties in Congress has affirmed, it is their shared duty not to allow an unprecedented and economically catastrophic default. It is not negotiable or conditional,” the White House said in a statement.

— McCarthy’s view: “I would like to see if we can come to an agreement long before the deadline,” the speaker said. “We have different perspectives. But we both laid out some of our vision of where we want to get to, and I believe after laying both out, I can see where we can find common ground.”

An administration official we spoke with last night also saw reasons for optimism but also warned McCarthy needs to remain flexible: “He will have opportunities to have an off-ramp. I don't think it has to come from us. In fact, it can't come from us,” the official said.

Translation: It’s going to be a long few months. 

Companion reading: “‘Not a gang discussion’: Debt crisis still seeking a savior,” by Burgess Everett, Sarah Ferris and Caitlin Emma: “Who’s going to steer away from the cliff? Inquiring minds in Congress, on Wall Street and across the country want to know. Here are some answers.”

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Learn more about API’s plan to Make, Move and Improve American energy.

JOIN POLITICO ON 2/9 TO HEAR FROM AMERICA’S GOVERNORS: In a divided Congress, more legislative and policy enforcement will shift to the states, meaning governors will take a leading role in setting the agenda for the nation. Join POLITICO on Thursday, Feb. 9 at World Wide Technology's D.C. Innovation Center for The Fifty: America's Governors, where we will examine where innovations are taking shape and new regulatory red lines, the future of reproductive health, and how climate change is being addressed across a series of one-on-one interviews. REGISTER HERE.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

VP Kamala Harris speaks during the funeral service for Tyre Nichols at Mississippi Boulevard Christian Church in Memphis, Tenn., on Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2023. | Andrew Nelles/The Tennessean via AP, Pool

CONGRESS

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM TODAY’S VOTE — “House GOP looks to prove whipping mettle on Omar ouster,” by Olivia Beavers and Nicholas Wu: “After a flip-flop-filled struggle, the House GOP’s whip operation appears poised to pass its first major test: booting progressive Rep. ILHAN OMAR (D-Minn.) from a prized committee spot.”

How it happened: “Just days ago, it seemed like a real possibility Speaker Kevin McCarthy — despite his projected confidence — could lose his long-threatened vow to remove the Minnesota progressive from the Foreign Affairs Committee. Then Rep. KEN BUCK (R-Colo.), who initially said he would vote against kicking her off, switched to yes on Wednesday, after Rep. VICTORIA SPARTZ (R-Ind.) flipped the same way the day before.”

McCONNELL VS. SCOTT HEATS UP — “McConnell pulls rival Rick Scott off powerful Commerce Committee,” by The Hill’s Alexander Bolton: “Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL (R-Ky.) has pulled Sen. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.), who tried to oust him as the Senate’s top Republican in a bruising leadership race, off the powerful Commerce Committee. McConnell also removed Sen. MIKE LEE (R-Utah), who supported Scott’s bid to replace McConnell as leader, from the Commerce panel, which has broad jurisdiction over a swath of federal agencies.”

Don’t miss Lee’s (@BasedMikeLee) reaction to the news: He starts with “Mitch happens” and ends with a YouTube link to a clip from Disney’s “Emperor’s New Groove.”

THE TALENTED MR. SANTOS — “Feds probing Santos’ role in service dog charity scheme,” by Jacqueline Sweet in New York: “Two agents contacted former service member RICHARD OSTHOFF Wednesday on behalf of the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the Eastern District of New York, he told POLITICO. Osthoff gave the agents text messages from 2016 with Santos, who he says used his plight to raise $3,000 for life-saving surgery for the pit bull mix, Sapphire — then ghosted with the funds, as first reported by Patch.”

DEMS ON DEFENSE — “Dems name former Trump impeachment officials to GOP investigative panel,” by Jordain Carney: “Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES announced his picks to sit on the select subcommittee on the ‘weaponization’ of the federal government, which will be the home of several high-profile, controversial Republican probes — including a broad dive into the FBI and Justice Department. Jeffries, in a letter to his colleagues, named Del. STACEY PLASKETT, a Democrat who represents the Virgin Islands, as the party’s top member on the panel, putting her at the forefront of the party’s efforts to push back on the GOP investigations.”

Related read: “Dan Goldman Has an Impossible Job. He Can’t Wait to Start,” by Rolling Stone’s Kara Voght

PANEL PAIN — “House Dem laments ‘friendly fire’ after losing a plum panel seat,” by Nicholas Wu: Rep. MIKE QUIGLEY (R-Ill.), “who has served on the [Intelligence Committee’s] Democratic roster since 2015, said he found out Wednesday that he did not make the cut.’”

THE WOMEN BEHIND THE BUDGET BATTLE — “Meet the Women Trying to Avoid a Spending Train Wreck in Congress,” by NYT’s Emily Cochrane

THE WHITE HOUSE

NIGHT OF THE HUNTER — “Hunter Biden’s lawyers, in newly aggressive strategy, target his critics,” by WaPo’s Matt Viser: “HUNTER BIDEN’S lawyers, in a newly aggressive strategy, sent a series of blistering letters Wednesday to state and federal prosecutors urging criminal investigations into those who accessed and disseminated his personal data — and sent a separate letter threatening Fox News host TUCKER CARLSON with a defamation lawsuit.”

What it means: “The string of letters, which included criminal referrals and cease-and-desist missives aimed at critics and detractors, marked the start of a new and far more hard-hitting phase for the president’s son just as House Republicans prepare their own investigations into him.”

JUST POSTED — “Biden approval steady after document discovery: AP-NORC Poll,” by AP’s Colleen Long And Emily Swanson

TRUMP CARDS

BARR SPEAKS — “Bill Barr says he didn’t overstep in Durham probe of Mueller investigation,” by L.A. Times’ Laurel Rosenhall and Sarah Wire: “[Former AG BILL] BARR's comments marked the first time he has spoken to the press since The New York Times reported Thursday that he pressured [JOHN] DURHAM to find flaws in the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election conducted by Special Counsel ROBERT S. MUELLER III.”

INVESTIGATING THE INVESTIGATING — “Lawmakers Call for Inquiry Into Durham’s Review of Russia Investigation,” by NYT’s Charlie Savage

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Learn more about API’s plan to Make, Move and Improve American energy.

WAR IN UKRAINE

THE GROUND TRUTH — “Ukraine can’t retake Crimea soon, Pentagon tells lawmakers in classified briefing,” by Alexander Ward, Paul McLeary and Connor O’Brien

— ICYMI: “Ukraine intel chief predicted Russia’s war. He says Crimea will be retaken,” by WaPo’s Isabelle Khurshudyan

WARNING SIGN — “Russian Troop Buildup May Signal New Assault, Ukraine Says,” by NYT’s Marc Santora and Michael Schwirtz

WHAT UKRAINE IS DOING — “Ukraine Ramps Up Corruption Fight as Zelensky Races to Assure Wary West,” by WSJ’s Jared Malsin and Alan Cullison

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

FOR YOUR RADAR — “U.S. opens embassy in Solomon Islands to counter China,” by AP’s Nick Perry

THE ECONOMY

KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THE FED’S RATE HIKE — “Fed's Powell warns of more pain ahead,” by Victoria Guida: “Wednesday’s move, the smallest rate increase since last March, brings policymakers another step closer to an expected pause in their inflation fight sometime this year — and stock markets rose on the day. The Fed’s main borrowing rate now sits between 4.5 percent and 4.75 percent, up from near zero early last year.”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

GUNS IN AMERICA — “First sweeping federal gun crime report in 20 years released,” by AP’s Lindsay Whitehurst

CALIFORNIA SHOOTING — “Family pleads for answers after Calif. police fatally shoot double amputee,” by WaPo’s Daniel Wu

DeSANTIS DOWNLOAD — “DeSantis builds conservative resume with new $114B-plus budget,” by Matt Dixon in Tallahassee, Fla.

X MARKS THE FRAUGHT — “Democratic-backed Connecticut bill would ban ‘Latinx’ term,” by AP’s Pat Eaton-Robb in Hartford, Conn.

VALLEY TALK

INTO THE METAVERSE — “FTC Loses Antitrust Challenge to Facebook Parent Meta,” by WSJ’s Dave Michaels and Jan Wolfe

PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION

SHOW ME A HERO — “Metro Employee Killed While Trying To Stop Shooter At Potomac Avenue Metro Station,” by DCist’s Héctor Alejandro Arzate, Jordan Pascale and Martin Austermuhle

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Marty Walsh is in the running for a job with the NHL players’ union.

Donald Trump is more popular than Joe Biden — at least on SNL, that is.

Boris Johnson expressed his amazement at how many Republicans are afraid of Tucker Carlson.

SPOTTED: Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.) having lunch at Jackie American Bistro yesterday. … Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) having dinner at Caruso's Grocery last night.

OUT AND ABOUT — POLITICO’s Playbook and Congress teams hosted a reception at Union Station last night welcoming the 118th Congress. The evening featured member-themed cocktails, cartoon illustrations of members and a Playbook photo booth. SPOTTED: Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Chris Coons (D-Del.), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Tina Smith (D-Minn.)and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Reps. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.), Salud Carbajal (D-Calif.), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.), Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), David Cicilline (D-R.I.), Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.), Glenn Ivey (D-Md.), Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.), Tony Cárdenas (D-Calif.) and Ted Lieu (D-Calif.), Matt Kaminski, Dafna Linzer, Heather Podesta, Scott Mulhauser, Rodell Mollineau, Kelley Hudak, Lauren French, David Montes, Doug Thornell, Matt Gorman, Caitlin and Alex Conant, Jon Kott, Jan Bayer, Ralph Büchi, Ben Howard, Mark Bednar, Scott Sloofman, Josh Dawsey, James Perry Adams, Pascal Confavreux, Senay Bulbul, Jeff Zeleny, Manu Raju, Jacqui Heinrich, Eli Yokley, Josh Gerstein, Maryam Mujica, Nolan McCaskill, Daniella Diaz, Boris Sanchez, Ben Haas, Steve Clemons, Sahil Kapur, Shadawn Reddick-Smith, Ammar Moussa, T.W. Arrighi, Alex Nguyen and Abbas Alawieh. Pics from the event 

— SPOTTED at a Churchill Tommy Gun Society dinner with special guest Richard Plepler, hosted by Jamie Weinstein and Michelle Fields at their Woodland Normanstone house on Wednesday night: Olivia Nuzzi, Elaina Plott, Jamie Kirchick, McKay Coppins, Daniel Lippman and Kaitlan Collins.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Chris Harris is joining Giffords as its first VP of comms. He previously was a VP at Weber Shandwick and its public affairs unit, Powell Tate and is a Kamala Harris, Chris Murphy and Mark Udall alum.

— Ada Furciniti is now executive director of the Protecting Americans Project. She most recently was regional finance director at the NRSC and is a Kelly Ayotte, NRCC Finance and CLF alum.

— Philip Reeker and Michael Castle-Miller are joining Dentons Global Advisors-Albright Stonebridge Group. Reeker will be lead of the Europe and Eurasia practice and previously was senior adviser for caucasus negotiations at the State Department. Castle-Miller will be lead of special economic zones.

TRANSITIONS — Greg Steele is now director of media affairs at the NRCC. He previously was comms director for Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.). … Alexandria Phillips is now director of strategic comms at USAID. She most recently was comms director for Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy and is a Kirsten Gillibrand, Hillary Clinton and State Department alum. … Troy Stock has now joined Monument Advocacy’s technology practice. He most recently was policy counsel for the Senate Republican Policy Committee under Chair Roy Blunt (R-Mo.).

… Josh Revak is joining Rep. Mary Peltola’s (D-Alaska) office as state director. He previously was an Alaska state senator who ran against Peltola in the special election that sent her to Congress and is a Don Young alum. … Michael Frazier is joining SKDK as an executive VP. He previously was executive VP and chief business officer at FARE and is a Newsday, AP and Mike Bloomberg alum. … Brock Boze is now a staff assistant and legislative correspondent for Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.). He previously was VP of recruitment for Michigan Political Consulting.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) … Rep. Jack Bergman (R-Mich.) … The Atlantic’s McKay Coppins … Ellen Malcolm … Gabriella Uli of the American Legislative Exchange Council … NBC’s Carrie Dann … The New Yorker’s Michael Luo … Teddy Downey of The Capitol Forum … Reid Wilson … Paul Bedard … Cisco’s Dan Knight … Aaron Keyak of the State Department … Victorino “Vic” Matus … Karly Matthews of the American Conservation Coalition … David Pakman … Heather Smith of Rep. William Timmons’ (R-S.C.) office … Adrienne Lee Benson ... Sam Schifrin of Sen. Cory Booker’s (D-N.J.) office … Traci Kraus … Patrick Hayden of the North American Export Grain Association … Haley Ast … Avery Pierson of the House Appropriations THUD Subcommittee … RGA’s Amanda Kitchen O’Malley … POLITICO’s Briana Jeter … Barry Diller … Ben Lacy (9-0)

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