|
Presented by The American Petroleum Institute (API): The unofficial guide to official Washington. | | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
|  The remnants of the Chinese balloon drift above the Atlantic Ocean, just off the coast of South Carolina, with a fighter jet and its contrail seen below it, on Saturday, Feb. 4. | Chad Fish via AP | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | On Saturday afternoon, the Chinese spy balloon that enraptured Americans’ attention for much of the last week was shot down six miles off the coast of South Carolina by an F-22 firing a Sidewinder air-to-air missile — marking the end of that spectacle and merely the beginning of what is sure to be a fierce political furor. NYT’s Helene Cooper and Ed Wong: “‘I told them to shoot it down,’ President [JOE] BIDEN told reporters in Hagerstown, Md., on his way to Camp David on Saturday afternoon. ‘They said to me, let’s wait until the safest place to do it.’ … “The president was alerted by the Pentagon on Tuesday that a spy balloon had entered continental American airspace near Idaho, White House officials said, and asked for military options. … Pentagon officials advised then against shooting down the balloon, whose belly structure was roughly the size of three buses, because of the possibility of harm to civilians and infrastructure while it was over land. Pentagon officials also said they did not view the intelligence threat from the balloon as any more extensive than what China could glean from a satellite.” WaPo’s David Ignatius: “The public spectacle of a spy balloon floating over America has been an embarrassment for the Biden administration, to be sure. But the administration can claim that it waited for the most opportune moment to destroy the balloon and capture its secret payload — and that the strange affair was a net intelligence plus for the United States.” Read Ignatius for more on the intelligence angle POLITICO’s Nahal Toosi and Phelim Kine write that the balloon affair was “not necessarily a death blow” to the U.S.-China relationship. “[T]he two countries are too interdependent to opt for a drastic downgrade in bilateral ties. Both the Biden administration and senior Chinese officials … have recently emphasized the need to improve the tenor in the U.S.-China relationship. And historically, other U.S.-Chinese incidents that have roiled the relationship eventually faded in favor of resumed, if strained, ties.” Where it may have an impact: U.S. public opinion. “Chinese spying has never been so front and center in the American public consciousness,” LYLE MORRIS, former country director for China at the Office of the Secretary of Defense, told Nahal and Phelim. “If there were any people still on the fence about a China threat or not, that’s pretty much been foreclosed.” Timeline by Lara Seligman and Sam Stein WILL BIDEN’S SOTU BE A 2024 ‘SOFT LAUNCH’? — You can expect the balloon to be a topic of discussion in Biden’s State of the Union address on Tuesday. But the thrust of the speech will be used to “paint the broad strokes of a likely campaign ahead, contrasting his notion of steady leadership with the newly elected, likely chaotic Republican House,” Jonathan Lemire writes in his must-read preview. “Privately, aides are hoping the GOP lawmakers in attendance will help him achieve the contrast. … “Biden has not yet declared his candidacy but the State of the Union could very well double as a soft launch for a 2024 bid. The president has said he intends to stand for re-election, though some of his closest advisers caution that a final decision has not yet been made. In somewhat classic Biden fashion, the timeline for an announcement has shifted, according to four people familiar with the decision.” Looking back: “Biden’s 2022 State of the Union proposals: What flopped and what succeeded,” by WaPo’s Glenn Kessler HOUSE GOP EYES BALLOON VOTE AHEAD OF SOTU — Our own Olivia Beavers reports this morning that House Republicans “are discussing moving a resolution that’d criticize the Biden admin for inaction re. the Chinese surveillance balloon. My leadership source says if they pull [the] trigger, it’d likely hit the floor Tuesday (that’d be ~SAME~ day as Biden’s State of the Union address).” COMPLICATING GOP TALKING POINTS — From deep in the AP’s writeup of the balloon incident: “U.S. officials said Saturday that similar Chinese balloons transited the continental United States briefly at least three times during the Trump administration and once that they know about earlier in the Biden administration.” … AND YET — Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) tweeted last night that she just spoke with former President DONALD TRUMP, and he “would have shot [the balloon] down before it entered the U.S.”
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API): The solution is here. The world’s need for more reliable, affordable energy is intertwined with the goal of building a lower-carbon future. Meeting energy demand – and alleviating energy poverty worldwide while reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a challenge that America’s natural gas and oil sector is meeting head on. | | | |  President Joe Biden arrives to the podium as VP Kamala Harris looks on during the DNC winter meeting on Friday, Feb. 3, in Philadelphia. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images | MARK YOUR CALENDARS — After months of hubbub, the Democratic National Committee on Saturday finally approved the 2024 nominating contest calendar chosen by Biden and top aides. The 2024 primary calendar:
- Feb. 3 … South Carolina
- Feb. 6 … New Hampshire and Nevada
- Feb. 13 … Georgia
- Feb. 27 … Michigan
In our view, the calendar’s biggest impacts are (1) de-emphasizing caucus contests, which critics have long assailed for being undemocratic and favoring candidates popular among the partisan base; (2) boosting states with much higher levels of diversity than Iowa and New Hampshire, which have traditionally kicked off the nominating contests, and; (3) all but eliminating the possibility that someone will be able to successfully mount a primary challenge to Biden. The drama largely unfolded in public, as Iowa and New Hampshire made a “final appeal to DNC members,” our Elena Schneider writes. It didn’t work. Though the calendar is official, Elena reports there are still logistical issues in New Hampshire and Georgia, where GOP control of the state governments stands in the way of the changes. Neither state has yet moved its primary date. New Hampshire has a state law that requires its primary to be the first in the nation, and it appears likely to forge ahead despite the substantial penalties the party will levy against NH Democrats and any candidates who opt to compete there if the state jumps the line. In Georgia, Republican Secretary of State BRAD RAFFENSPERGER has “already ruled out splitting the Democratic and Republican primaries into two different dates,” Elena writes. “The office also said it wouldn’t schedule a primary that jeopardizes delegates for either party.” Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. What are your predictions for Biden’s State of the Union speech? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API):   Learn more about API’s plan to Make, Move and Improve American energy. | | | SUNDAY BEST … — Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) on the Chinese balloon, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “They calculated this carefully with a message embedded in it. And I think that’s the part we can’t forget here. It’s not just the balloon. It’s the message to try to send the world that … we can do whatever we want, and America can’t stop us.” On previous reports of balloons in the U.S. under prior administrations: “That it flew briefly over some part of the U.S. or continental U.S., that’s one thing. But what we saw this week, it’s unprecedented. And that’s why everyone’s reacting the way they’re reacting. We have never seen this. So, this is no comparison to anything that may have happened up to this point.” — Sen. CORY BOOKER (D-N.J.) on the Chinese balloon, on CBS’ “Face the Nation”: “We have a real problem with China on a number of issues. From their human rights violations to their violations of international business law, to even the challenges we’ve had with them on overt spying. So I’m grateful that the military took decisive action when they did and how they did. But we obviously have issues here.” On whether bipartisan legislation on police reform is possible: “I think there’s a pathway forward, though I'm very sobered in a divided Congress about our ability to get it done.” — Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG on U.S.-China relations, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “I don’t really know that you could do a one-to-one comparison with the last Cold War, but certainly you see this great power competition, and we’re seeing it a lot.” On whether Biden could have been more transparent on the documents investigations: “Coulda, woulda, shoulda is not the strategic direction or focus in this administration.” — Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) on U.S.-China relations, on “Fox News Sunday”: “China has been waging a Cold War against the United States for decades, and unfortunately, not many of our leaders have acknowledged that.” TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion and analysis pieces.
| | BIDEN’S SUNDAY — The president has nothing on his public schedule.
VP KAMALA HARRIS’ SUNDAY — The VP has nothing on her public schedule. | | | | | | JOIN POLITICO ON 2/9 TO HEAR FROM AMERICA’S GOVERNORS: In a divided Congress, more legislative and policy enforcement will shift to the states, meaning governors will take a leading role in setting the agenda for the nation. Join POLITICO on Thursday, Feb. 9 at World Wide Technology's D.C. Innovation Center for The Fifty: America's Governors, where we will examine where innovations are taking shape and new regulatory red lines, the future of reproductive health, and how climate change is being addressed across a series of one-on-one interviews. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
| 
A train that derailed on Friday night sits on fire in East Palestine, Ohio, on Saturday, Feb. 4. | Gene J. Puskar/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. WHAT’S NEW IS NEW: “Koch Network, Aiming to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump, Will Play in the G.O.P. Primaries,” by NYT’s Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Swan and Kenneth Vogel: “The donor network created by the billionaire industrialist brothers CHARLES G. and DAVID H. KOCH is preparing to get involved in the presidential primaries in 2024, with the aim of turning ‘the page on the past’ in a thinly veiled rebuke of former President Donald J. Trump, according to an internal memo. “The network, which consists of an array of political and advocacy groups backed by hundreds of ultrawealthy conservatives, has been among the most influential forces in American politics over the past 15 years, spending nearly $500 million supporting Republican candidates and conservative policies in the 2020 election cycle alone. But it has never before supported candidates in presidential primaries. The potential move against Mr. Trump could motivate donors to line up behind another prospective candidate.” 2. WHAT’S OLD IS OLD: “Few Americans are excited about a Biden-Trump rematch, Post-ABC poll finds,” by WaPo’s Dan Balz and Emily Guskin: “Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, the Post-ABC poll finds 58 percent say they would prefer someone other than Biden as their nominee in 2024 — almost double the 31 percent who support Biden. That is statistically unchanged since last September. “Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 49 percent say they prefer someone other than Trump as their nominee in 2024, compared with 44 percent who favor the former president. That too is statistically unchanged from last September. More than 6 in 10 Americans (62 percent) say they would be “dissatisfied” or “angry” if Biden were reelected in 2024, while 56 percent say the same about the prospect of Trump returning to the White House for a second time.” 3. WHAT’S OLD IS NEW: “As G.O.P. Rails Against Federal Spending, Its Appetite for Earmarks Grows,” by NYT’s Stephanie Lai: “A review by The New York Times of the nearly $16 billion in earmarks included in the $1.7 trillion spending law enacted in December — more than 7,200 projects in all — revealed that earmarks requested by members of both parties skyrocketed over the last year. And while Democrats secured a greater amount of spending on pet projects overall than Republicans did, the increase in G.O.P. earmarks since last spring was larger.” The deets: “Compared to spending legislation in March, the number of earmarks in the December bill rose by more than 2,200, costing $7 billion more, with Democrats outspending Republicans by $2.3 billion. Republican members secured 85 percent more in spending for pet projects in the latest funding package than in previous one, whereas Democrats’ increase was 70 percent.” 4. WHAT’S NEW IS OLD: “Classified-Documents Probe Highlights Biden Family’s Deep Ties to Penn,” by WSJ’s Annie Linskey: “The discovery of classified documents from Joe Biden’s vice presidency at a foreign-relations think tank might have surprised many in the country. The fact that the think tank was run by the University of Pennsylvania and bore the president’s name shouldn’t have. For decades, the Ivy League school and the Biden family, across generations, have fostered close relations to their mutual benefit. Those benefits extend beyond the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement, where the documents were discovered in November.”
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API):   Learn more about API’s plan to Make, Move and Improve American energy. | | | 5. CALIFORNIA DREAMIN’: “California Dems prepare for fierce Senate battle,” by Nicholas Wu and Jeremy White: “The draw is too tempting for senior Democrats to pass up — if the 89-year-old [Sen. DIANNE] FEINSTEIN retires, as expected, it opens a spot that her successor could likely hold in the solid-blue state for decades. And with other California Sen. ALEX PADILLA fresh off his first election and only 49 years old, it may be a while left to wait for the next opportunity. But they’ll have to endure a contentious and expensive intraparty battle first, one that’s already testing loyalties.” 6. KNOWING NANCY MACE: “Confessions of a Sometimes-MAGA Critic,” by Rolling Stone’s Kara Voght: “Mace would like to separate herself from the MAGA caucus, but doesn’t feel like she’s quite breaking through. ‘I have concerns about who’s in the driver’s seat and what influences different members have on leadership,’ she says. She used her time in her first House Oversight hearing to slam both Democratic and Republican members for being hyper-partisan in their approach to investigations. She chastised her GOP colleagues for a slate of anti-abortion bills they brought to the floor in January. Notable GOP criticism: “‘If you really want to get serious about this issue, and balance women’s rights with the right to live, let’s give every woman access to birth control,’ she says. ‘Instead we’re voting on stuff that will never get through the Senate.’ ‘I think we’ve laid the groundwork to lose the majority in two years,’ she says.” Interesting tidbit: “Mace’s positions sound principled, and they very well may be. But those principles haven’t led to real legislative consequences yet. Mace has voted for every measure she vocally opposed. … Asked how her words can be meaningful if her actions are not, Mace says there’s a method to her madness. ‘I am making headway,’ she explains. ‘My willingness to try to work behind the scenes — and then when that’s not successful, being outspoken publicly — I think has been very helpful to the conversation.’” 7. WHAT A DRAG: “Republican states are fuming — and legislating — over drag performances,” by Juan Perez Jr.: “Lawmakers in at least eight states — including Arizona, South Carolina and Texas — introduced measures to block children from drag shows at the start of this year, according to PEN America, a free speech advocacy group. Many of the measures would subject educators, business owners, performers and parents to criminal prosecution and professional sanctions for allowing children to view performances, many of which have been the focus of recent armed demonstrations.” 8. STATES OF THE ECONOMY: “States Are Flush With Cash, Which Could Soften a Possible Recession,” by WSJ’s David Harrison: “The rapid economic recovery from the pandemic combined with an influx of federal stimulus money has filled public coffers, allowing governments to squirrel funds away for emergencies. States will hold an estimated $136.8 billion in rainy-day funds this fiscal year, according to the National Association of State Budget Officers, up from $134.5 billion a year earlier.” 9. IN MEMORIAM: “Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan martial ruler in 9/11 wars, dies,” by AP’s Jon Gambrell and Munir Ahmed: “Gen. PERVEZ MUSHARRAF, who seized power in a bloodless coup and later led a reluctant Pakistan into aiding the U.S. war in Afghanistan against the Taliban, has died, officials said Sunday. He was 79. Musharraf, a former special forces commando, became president through the last of a string of military coups that roiled Pakistan since its founding amid the bloody 1947 partition of India. He ruled the nuclear-armed state after his 1999 coup through tensions with India, an atomic proliferation scandal and an Islamic extremist insurgency. He stepped down in 2008 while facing possible impeachment.”
| | | | DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Kyrsten Sinema ran the Mesa Marathon, averaging 8:41 per mile. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at Adrienne Arsht’s birthday party on Saturday night at the Smithsonian Museum of Natural History, which featured cocktails, a performance of the American Pops Orchestra and a buffet dinner: DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and Tanya Mayorkas, HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, Navy Secretary Carlos del Toro, Anthony Fauci, Francis Collins, Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), David and Holly Petraeus, Jim Jones, Ruth Marcus and Jonathan Leibowitz, Anita and Tim McBride, Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova, British Ambassador Karen Pierce, Mexican Ambassador Esteban Moctezuma, Matt Kaminski, Margaret Brennan, Andrea Mitchell. WEDDING — Andrew Peek, a consultant, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and Trump administration alum, and Alixe Laughlin got marriedJan. 28 at the Lyford Cay Club in the Bahamas.They were set up on a blind date by his sister.Pic … Another pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Morgan Radford, NBC News Daily co-anchor, and David Williams, VP of real estate, impact and partnerships at Lafayette Square, welcomed Adelana “Lana” Marcia Radford Williams early Thursday morning. She came in at 8 lbs, 1 oz and 21 inches. Pic, via Andrea Del Valle/Mom365 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm … DNC Chair Jaime Harrison … Business Roundtable’s Michael Steel … Drew Godinich … William Upton … POLITICO’s Glen Mazza … Vinoda Basnayake ... Kristina Baum … Sarabeth Berman … Armstrong Williams … NRSC’s Jillian Davidson … Bret Jacobson … Leadership Institute’s Matthew Hurtt ... Lisa Kohnke … Apple’s Trevor Kincaid … Susan Nelson … Sara Aviel ... Daniel Hoff … Ryan Velasco … Grant Carlisle … Margaret Franklin … Rachel Swartz … Omarosa Manigault Newman …CAA’s Ali Spiesman … Lisa Tozzi Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API): Improving American Energy. American natural gas and oil are meeting growing energy demands while lowering emissions. Between 2006-2021, about 60% of power-related CO2 emissions reductions in the power sector came from the increased use of natural gas instead of coal. But there’s more to be done. Reducing regulatory barriers will enable companies to accelerate innovations and the use of carbon capture, hydrogen, and cleaner fuels. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says blue hydrogen and carbon capture storage can greatly help reduce GHG emissions globally. American energy is poised to lead a lower carbon future. See how we can Make, Move and Improve energy. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |  |
