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Presented by Meta: The unofficial guide to official Washington. | | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | CULL OF DUTY — Sen. TIM SCOTT suspended his presidential campaign last night, telling Fox News’ Trey Gowdy, his former South Carolina congressional colleague, “I think the voters, who are the most remarkable people on the planet, have been really clear that they’re telling me: ‘Not now, Tim.’” Despite his middling poll numbers, the news still came as a bit of a surprise — even to the Republican’s staffers: “Multiple campaign staff members confirmed to POLITICO that they had no prior knowledge of Scott’s decision before he did so on live television,” our colleague Natalie Allison reports. Scott also told Gowdy that he has no immediate plans to endorse in the race. “The best way for me to be helpful is to not weigh in,” he said. He also added that a stint as a VP “has never been on my to-do list.” Watch the full interview GAZA LATEST — “Israeli tank at gate of main Gaza hospital; medics plead for fuel to save babies,” by Reuters’ Nidal Al-Mughrabi and Dan Williams
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President Joe Biden waits for members of the media to get set before he speaks at the inaugural Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity Leaders' Summit with leaders from the Western Hemisphere at the White House, Nov. 3, 2023, in Washington. | Andrew Harnik/AP | BIDEN’S BIG BIND — This morning we’re going to dig deep into the state — some would say dire state — of President JOE BIDEN’s reelection bid. We have an exclusive look at an extensive new national survey that shows that if a Biden-Trump election were held today, Donald Trump would win. Of course the election is not today, it’s a year away, which means Biden has a lot of time to fix things. So right on cue we have a deeply reported new dispatch from Jonathan Martin, who diagnoses what’s ailing Biden 2024 and distills the wisdom of a broad range of key Democrats about what Biden can and can’t do to turn things around. Finally we’re going to hear directly from one of the key architects of BARACK OBAMA’s 2012 reelection who has some candid advice for Team Biden. But first let’s look at some new numbers that will jolt the Democrats. According to new research from Stack Data Strategy, Trump would today beat Biden in the Electoral College, 292 to 246, even as Biden narrowly wins the popular vote, 49% to 48%. To arrive at these figures, Stack polled 15,000 Americans and then projected results down to the state and local level. (You can look at their granular county level projections using this dashboard.) Trump’s projected victory is based on him winning the four states that were decided by the closest margin in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. All four flipped from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020, and this projection has them swinging back to Trump — albeit by tight margins: Arizona by 1.4%, Georgia by 3.3%, Pennsylvania by 2.3%, and Wisconsin by 0.9%. When independent and third-party candidates are added to the survey — Stack asked respondents about independents ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. and CORNEL WEST as well as unnamed Libertarian and Green Party candidates — Trump picks up Nevada’s six electoral votes, as well. The other candidates together take more than 10 percent of the vote there. A few more highlights:
- The survey also shows Trump defeating KAMALA HARRIS or GAVIN NEWSOM.
- But it shows Biden crushing RON DeSANTIS, 359 to 179.
- In the four states projected to flip to Trump, “other” candidates receive a not-insignificant portion of the vote: 4.0% in Arizona, 2.6% in Georgia, 3.1% in Pennsylvania, and 3.2% in Wisconsin. When voters are asked specifically about Kennedy, West and third-party options, those numbers rise to between 8% and 11%.
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Explore the impact. | | | OK, now for the standard caveats:
- When margins are this small, can a poll really tell you more than that the election will be really, really close?
- Many of the events that will define the general election haven’t happened yet — a month ago we didn’t know a new war in the Middle East would roil American politics. Trump could be in jail, for one, and economic conditions could improve or deteriorate.
- There has, of course, been no multi-billion-dollar general election campaign to shape voter perceptions.
- The polling method used here has limitations. Because it makes state-by-state projections using a national sample, it lives or dies with the assumptions it makes about the electorate, and it can’t account for differential factors between states — such as a campaign focusing its spending on particular swing states.
But the poll is useful as a year-out snapshot, and Stack, which is known for its work with the NRCC in the U.S. and the Conservative Party in the U.K., has a good track record — they nailed the 2022 midterms. Add this to the stack of recent data suggesting that Biden may be the underdog in next year’s likely rematch SO WHAT CAN DEMS DO? — Even without a new poll showing Trump beating Biden, Democrats are already in retooling mode. Jonathan Martin spoke with dozens of Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans. “The level of despair was striking,” he writes. Out of this despair came a lot of advice that is expertly distilled by JMart. Here’s a sample: — On wooing Never Trump Republicans: “Whether it’s called Republicans Against Trump or Republicans for Biden, [LIZ] CHENEY must be deployed and do all she can do to bring other prominent figures with her, including her father and former President GEORGE W. BUSH.” — On his savior in Tokyo: “No ambassador has seemed to remake the role as Biden’s envoy to Japan, RAHM EMANUEL. Yet the best service Rahm-san can offer Biden isn’t using his post in Asia to forge Pacific alliances and taunt the Russians and Chinese. The president should call Emanuel back stateside and have him chair the re-election. — On the Clintons: “Biden cannot run the country, run for re-election and oversee a new Mideast peace process. He should appoint a pair of high-level envoys for the post: BILL and HILLARY CLINTON.” — On economic messaging: “Perhaps the most overwhelming economic messaging advice I picked up from Democrats was for him to heave ‘Bidenomics’ into the dumpster. Attempting to make voters believe something they don’t is folly. Attaching your name to that strategy borders on masochistic.” — On abortion: “Trump is running like a scalded dog away from his signature achievement. Yet he’s on tape boasting how he’s the architect of Roe’s demise. As one canny Democratic strategist all but begged: talk about abortion every day.” DON’T PANIC — Finally, JIM MESSINA, Obama’s 2012 campaign manager, does his best in a new POLITICO Magazine piece to convince fellow Democrats to ignore the early polls (good luck!) and advises Team Biden to recommit to the fundamentals:
- Focus on the economic message: “[T]here is still plenty of time to break through with voters.”
- Double down on the battleground states: “Biden can win if he holds onto the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.”
- Remind America of the chaos: “I believe voters will move in Biden’s direction when they hear what the president has done, and get reminded (by Democrats and Biden himself) of the chaotic, lawless circus that was Trump’s presidency.”
Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your unsolicited 2024 advice: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. LEDE OF THE MORNING — “Strip Clubs, Lewd Photos and a Boozy Hotel: The Toxic Atmosphere at Bank Regulator FDIC,” by WSJ’s Rebecca Ballhaus: “A male Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. supervisor in San Francisco invited employees to a strip club. A supervisor in Denver had sex with his employee, told other employees about it and pressed her to drink whiskey during work. Senior bank examiners texted female employees photos of their penises. All of the men remained employed at the agency.” THE WEEK — Tomorrow: October inflation data released. GSA Administrator ROBIN CARNAHAN appears before House Oversight Committee. Senate Rules Committee votes on military nominations workaround. Biden travels to San Francisco for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. … Wednesday: Biden meets Chinese President XI JINPING on APEC sidelines. Top bank regulators appear before House Financial Services Committee. … Thursday: Senate Judiciary Committee meets to again consider Supreme Court ethics subpoenas. … Friday: RUPERT MURDOCH steps down as Fox Corp. chair. Biden hosts APEC leaders’ retreat then departs for Washington. Government funding expires at midnight.
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate will meet at 3 p.m. to debate ANA DE ALBA’s nomination as a judge on the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, with a cloture vote at 5:30 p.m. A procedural vote on a vehicle for a continuing resolution will follow. The House will meet at noon and at 2 p.m. will take up several bills reported by the Judiciary and Veterans Affairs committees, with votes postponed until 6:30 p.m. 3 things to watch …
- Expect a Tuesday House vote on the impeachment of DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS — or, more likely, a vote to table the effort led by Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.). Republicans have been eager to highlight the border issues that Mayorkas is in charge of solving, but Speaker MIKE JOHNSON recently beseeched lawmakers to adhere to due process in opposing an effort to expel Rep. GEORGE SANTOS (R-N.Y.), and you can expect a similar argument here. The leadership team might not be united, however: Majority Whip TOM EMMER announced last night he’ll vote to impeach.
- The chances for a Friday government shutdown might depend well on how House Democrats react today to Johnson’s two-step continuing resolution that would push agency funding expirations till Jan. 19 or Feb. 2. With three GOP members already against the plan and more likely to follow, at least some Democratic votes will be needed. On one hand, the Johnson CR is relatively clean, with no funding cuts or policy riders. On the other, there’s no supplemental funding for Israel or Ukraine, and many Democrats — such as Rep. HENRY CUELLAR (Tex.), who came out against the bill last night — don’t want to wait two more months.
- Alongside the CR, House Republicans are planning to move two more fiscal 2024 approps bills to the floor this week, but don’t hold your breath for passage. The two bills — Labor-HHS and Commerce-Justice-Science — are two of the most politically treacherous, with the former bill routinely mired in abortion politics and the latter bill a locus for conservative attempts to defund the Justice Department’s Trump investigations. Expect them both to join the Ag-FDA, Transportation-HUD and Financial Services bills in legislative limbo.
At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning before he and first lady JILL BIDEN return to the White House from New Castle, Del. At 11:30 a.m., Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS will welcome the 2023 Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights to the White House. In the afternoon, Biden will hold a bilateral meeting with Indonesian President JOKO WIDODO. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE and JOHN KIRBY will brief at 2 p.m. More from AP on Widodo’s visit
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Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks to members of the media in the spin room following the NBC News Republican Presidential Primary Debate on Nov. 8, 2023, in Miami. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images | HALEY’S COMMIT — With Scott’s exit from the 2024 presidential field, NIKKI HALEY is stepping up her efforts to supplant Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS as the clear second-place runner to the leader of the pack. Haley’s campaign is planning to spend “$10 million in television, radio and digital advertising across Iowa and New Hampshire beginning in the first week of December,” AP’s Steve Peoples reports. “Details of the advertising plans, which represent the Haley campaign’s first official advertising reservation, were obtained by The Associated Press ahead of a public announcement expected Monday. Haley’s planned investment, as of now, is more than five times larger than DeSantis’ current advertising reserves for the same time period, according to the media tracking firm AdImpact.” The ad blitz will run through the Jan. 15 Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire’s subsequent contest, the AP notes, adding that DeSantis’ operation is currently only spending for ads in Iowa. As for the substance, “Haley’s campaign declined to say whether the ads would attack DeSantis or Trump directly.”
- Trump’s myriad legal troubles are at the center of the 2024 focus as the former president mounts a comeback bid. But the cases are also top of mind for Trump should he return to the White House, The Messenger’s Darren Samuelsohn reports. On his to-do list: “Seeing to it on Inauguration Day 2025 that his two federal criminal cases go away — and to sidetrack, if not kill, the state cases too.”
- As Biden makes his case for reelection, his “ambitions are no secret,” AP’s Chris Megerian writes, adding that “his goals for child care, community college and prescription drugs have been laid out in detail during the Democrat’s first term. He also has unfulfilled promises on civil rights, such as protecting access to the ballot box, preventing police misconduct and restoring the nationwide right to abortion. Banning firearms known as assault rifles remains a priority as well.”
- WaPo’s Rachel Tashjian unpacks Haley’s memorable debate moment — “I wear heels. They’re not for a fashion statement, they’re for ammunition” — to find that it is a well-worn quip by the former South Carolina governor: “Still, after all these years, the meaning of the rebuke remains hard to puzzle out. Is she walking all over her opponents? Are her heels secretly a weapon? Or was this just a threateningly vague embrace of the right-wing zest for gun ownership, declaring women’s right not only to bear arms, but also to wear heels?”
MORE POLITICS
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Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) speaks with reporters as she departs a vote at the U.S. Capitol Feb. 14, 2023. (Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images) | Francis Chung/POLITICO | DEM DONOR DRAIN — KYRSTEN SINEMA is facing a concerning trend if the Democrat-turned-independent has hopes of reelection in Arizona: The centrist senator has seen a significant drop in Democratic donors in 2023 and those dips have not been offset enough by GOP donors to make up the difference, our colleagues Ally Mutnick and Jessica Piper report. The details: “A POLITICO analysis of her donors in recent cycles reveals her previous contributors are more loyal to the Democratic Party than they are to Sinema. Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO (D-Ariz.), who launched a run for Sinema’s seat in January, has raised two-and-a-half times as much from Sinema’s 2018 major donors as Sinema herself has. Gallego has supplanted Sinema as the de facto Democratic nominee in Arizona’s Senate race — and Democratic donors are responding.”
|  | | The conundrum: Sinema, of course, has yet to formally announce a run for reelection, but the analysis “demonstrates the degree to which Sinema placed herself on a political island with her dramatic departure from the Democratic Party. To win a second term, she would have to cobble together a patchwork of independents, Democrats and Republicans — both to vote for her and fund her campaign.” More top reads:
- RNC Chair RONNA McDANIEL weighed in on the GOP’s abortion woes at the ballot box over the past year, telling NBC’s “Meet the Press” that her party has to figure out a winning strategy: “I think there’s a lot of discussion to be had, but we can’t just say it’s a states issue and be done.”
- Federal investigators’ inquiry into ERIC ADAMS is probing whether the NYC mayor “weeks before his election two years ago, pressured New York Fire Department officials to sign off on the Turkish government’s new high-rise consulate in Manhattan despite safety concerns with the building,” NYT’s William Rashbaum, Dana Rubinstein and Michael Rothfeld report.
- Rep. ILHAN OMAR (D-Minn.) is the latest member of The Squad to stare down a primary challenge, with former Minneapolis City Council member DON SAMUELS announcing a second bid to unseat the progressive. “Our congresswoman has a predilection to divisiveness and conflict,” Samuels told AP’s Steve Karnowski in an interview before announcing his run yesterday.
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Then-President Donald Trump arrives to deliver his State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress on Capitol Hill in Washington, Feb. 4, 2020. | Pool Photo by Leah Millis | CUTTING IT CLOSE — When Trump was president, he convinced Congress it was possible to end AIDS in America and that hundreds of millions of dollars should be devoted to the effort. But just four years later, House Republicans plan to slash the budget by 95 percent, our colleague Evan Peng writes. “The $542 million cut they’re planning this week to the Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S. initiative shows how GOP interest in ambitious public health campaigns has waned since the party battled with health agencies during the pandemic. All the cutting also aims to restore the party’s reputation for budget discipline after Republicans gave Trump free rein to spend during his term in office.” Here’s how Rep. ROBERT ADERHOLT (R-Ala.), the chair of the subcommittee overseeing the HHS budget, explained the reasoning behind the slash: “It’s one of those things where it’s like, what do you have to have and what would be nice to have? We had to get down to the bare bones of what we really had to have.” More top reads:
- KEVIN McCARTHY is “weighing whether to stay in office,” CNN’s Manu Raju and Sam Fossum report in an exclusive interview with the ousted speaker. What else he said: “McCarthy made clear he misses being ‘at the table’ even as he promised to help the new speaker; went further in his embrace of former President Donald Trump heading into 2024; and questioned whether the ‘crazy eight’ Republicans who voted to strip him of the gavel are even conservatives at all.”
AMERICA AND THE WORLD FOR YOUR RADAR — U.S. forces “conducted airstrikes against two facilities used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and its proxies in eastern Syria late Sunday, Pentagon officials said, in the latest retaliation for what has become a daily barrage of rocket and drone attacks against American forces in Iraq and Syria,” NYT’s Eric Schmitt reports. THE LATEST ON THE GROUND — “Heavy fighting rages near main Gaza hospital and people trapped inside say they cannot flee,” by AP’s Wafaa Shurafa and Samy Magdy HOW WE GOT HERE — “Hamas envisioned deeper attacks, aiming to provoke an Israeli war,” by WaPo’s Shira Rubin and Joby Warrick in Tel Aviv: “The evidence, described by more than a dozen current and former intelligence and security officials from four Western and Middle Eastern countries, reveals an intention by Hamas planners to strike a blow of historic proportions, in the expectation that the group’s actions would compel an overwhelming Israeli response.” THE PASSION OF CHRISTIE — CHRIS CHRISTIE visited Israel yesterday, where he said that Trump’s “rhetoric of intolerance — as evident today as it was during his presidency — had fueled the surge of bigotry confronting Jews and Muslims after Hamas’s brutal Oct. 7 attack on Israel and the fierce Israeli response in Gaza,” writes NYT’s Jonathan Weisman, who traveled with Christie.
| | | | GET A BACKSTAGE PASS TO COP28 WITH GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Get insider access to the conference that sets the tone of the global climate agenda with POLITICO's Global Playbook newsletter. Authored by Suzanne Lynch, Global Playbook delivers exclusive, daily insights and comprehensive coverage that will keep you informed about the most crucial climate summit of the year. Dive deep into the critical discussions and developments at COP28 from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — David Bonine is joining United as managing director/head of congressional affairs. He most recently was a special assistant to the president for legislative affairs. TRANSITIONS — Charles Correll III is now chief speechwriter and comms adviser for Senate Republican Conference Chair John Barrasso (R-Wyo.). He most recently was speechwriter for former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. … Joe Bartlett is now director of federal policy at Skydio. He previously was a professional staff member for the House Armed Services GOP. … Robyn Boerstling is joining the National Marine Manufacturers Association as SVP of government relations. She previously was a VP at the National Association of Manufacturers and is a DOT alum. WEDDING — Samantha-Jo Roth, a congressional reporter for the Washington Examiner, and Douglas Browner, a sales account executive at Vercara, got married Nov. 4 at the Scottsdale Resort at McCormick Ranch in Scottsdale, Ariz. The two met almost five-and-a-half years ago and had their first date at Bar Deco in Chinatown. Pic, via Ryann Lindsey … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: AG Merrick Garland … Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) … Reps. Max Miller (R-Ohio) and Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) … Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and first lady Cecilia Abbott … Charlie Baker … Joe Cirincione … CNN’s Eric Bradner … POLITICO’s Sue Allan and Hannah Farrow … Ken Rudin … Geoff Freeman of the U.S. Travel Association … Jon Wadsworth of Atlas Advocacy … Jared Parks of the Herald Group … Zach Gillan of S-3 Group … Washington Times’ Seth McLaughlin … Martha McKenna … Addie Whisenant … Jonathan Topaz … Todd Priest of Todd Priest & Associates (59) … Ayaan Hirsi Ali … Will Mascaro of Rep. David Joyce’s (R-Ohio) office Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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