Elon Musk's other unfinished project

From: POLITICO's Digital Future Daily - Tuesday Nov 15,2022 08:53 pm
How the next wave of technology is upending the global economy and its power structures
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By Matt Berg

With help from Derek Robertson

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Tomorrow through Friday, look for this newsletter in your inbox early, at 2 p.m. Eastern time. Ben Schreckinger will be in Abu Dhabi covering the  Milken Institute's Middle East and Africa Summit  for DFD, focusing on the world of innovation unfolding outside the U.S.

A rocket lifts off from a launch complex at night.

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launch, carrying Starlink internet satellites. | Red Huber/Getty Images

Before he started dismantling Twitter in public, Elon Musk had a reputation as a guy who promised to build the future, and delivered a lot of it, but got over his skis even more often . We still haven’t seen the hyperloop tunnels he promised, or the brain implants, or the robotaxis.

But it looks like there’s one bit of the future that Musk really has built and isn’t interested in using: A potential power that researchers have identified in his Starlink satellite system.

It’s no secret that Ukraine’s military relies heavily on the SpaceX service for a number of critical functions in its fight against Russian troops, including voice and electronic communications, helping fly drones and even correcting artillery fire.

But what if the satellites are capable of more than we know? That’s the question Todd Humphreys , an Army-funded researcher at UT Austin, asked and found out — without the billionaire’s blessing.

For the past two years, Humphreys and a team of researchers reverse-engineered signals sent from thousands of Starlink internet satellites in low Earth orbit to ground-based receivers, finding that the constellation could form a precise navigation system. What’s more, this powerful new function could, in theory, be set up overnight with just a few tweaks to the system’s software.

If true, this would be a very big deal. Right now, the U.S.-owned Global Positioning System (GPS) is the most prevalent technology used in the global navigation satellite system , a general term describing any satellite constellation that provides positioning, navigation, and timing services on a global or regional basis.

It’s reliable enough for a cross-country roadtrip, recording bank transactions or Ukraine’s military fight against Russian troops — but in reality, it could be better. Satellites in the GPS constellation are “ all too susceptible to jamming .” For a system that has an economic impact of about $1 billion a day in the United States alone, that’s a problem.

Starlink satellite signals are much wider and have more channels than GPS satellites, making it harder for attackers to disrupt since there are more frequencies to cover. These would offer a reliable backup to GPS and other navigation systems in Europe, Russia and China, according to findings published in a non-peer reviewed paper in October. Also, each Starlink terminal focuses on only one satellite at a time with a narrow beam — so it ignores jamming signals coming from different directions.

In contrast, the military has to use costly phased-array GPS antennas to prevent its receivers from “pulling in everything above it,” such as jamming signals, Humphreys told us. If put into operation, Starlink satellites could provide a low-cost and highly accurate navigation service resistant to jamming from adversaries.

Humphreys told POLITICO that he’s heard from Defense Department leaders who have an “increased interest” in Starlink “because they recognize additional value that they might not have seen before.”

Asked to confirm that, spokespeople for the Air Force and the Department of Defense referred us to SpaceX; the company did not respond to a request for comment.

Musk does know about the study, and took it as an opportunity to toot his own horn. Starlink can “obviously offer far more robust positioning than GPS, as it will have ~1000X more satellites over time,” he tweeted in response to the study , adding that his service would also have a much stronger signal. But it’s “just not today’s problem.”

Before the paper’s release, Humphreys says he sent the findings to his contacts at SpaceX (among them is a former student) as a courtesy, and… crickets. No one’s gotten back to him, and he takes that as a sign that they aren’t pleased that the satellite’s capabilities were revealed. It also suggests that the research and its findings are reputable.

“If they wanted this information disclosed, they would have done it,” he said.

But it could push the company to see the possibilities around the world if commercial production was undertaken, though it would be costly and take years. Still, it could be a worthwhile undertaking as a public service for areas that don’t always have a reliable satellite connection — which often happens during conflicts such as the war in Ukraine — even though it wouldn’t be profitable. That’s Musk’s issue with the potential undertaking, the researcher said.

“I'm completely convinced that it would be valuable as a backup to GPS as a service to the world,” Humphreys said, characterizing it as “a real revolution that's happening right from our eyes.”

“Whether it's monetizable is a different question.”

 

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ftx's political fallout

CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam

Rostin Behnam, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

The FTX disaster has totally shattered the nascent effort to bring crypto under a clear regulatory framework, as POLITICO’s Sam Sutton and Declan Harty reported last night .

Sam and Declan homed in on FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s support for a recently proposed bill that would bring crypto under the jurisdiction of the CFTC, something SEC Chair Gary Gensler now says is “too light-touch.” The report is full of crypto skeptics taking aim at the bill in light of Bankman-Fried’s fall from grace.

The debacle has also put the CFTC itself under scrutiny, with consumer advocacy group Better Markets saying the agency “failed miserably” in overseeing FTX’s parent company. And as Sam pointed out additionally in this morning’s Morning Money newsletter , outspoken consumer advocate and Senate Banking Committee chair Sherrod Brown gave remarks today commending the regulators who have “stepped up to protect depositors and consumers when crypto firms mislead them into thinking their money is safe when it isn’t.” — Derek Robertson

metaverse monetization

It might be a rough time for Meta and the tech industry writ large, but what do business analysts think about the potential future of the metaverse as a media platform?

In its annual analysis of media stats , the firm Activate Consulting tries to put that question in context. The main takeaway: The “metaverse,” and virtual media experiences in general, have been on a steady path of development from the early-2000s age of World of Warcraft and Second Life, but now is the time for them to handle some practical, non-game applications if they’re to expand to the extent companies like Meta hope.

Some key figures from the report:

  • More than 300 million users spend a significant amount of time in metaverse-like games such as Roblox or Minecraft daily
  • The “super users” that drive tech adoption already spend a massive amount of time in these spaces, and nearly three quarters of them are interested in non-gaming experiences in the metaverse
  • More than a third of U.S. adults surveyed are interested in creating and personalizing their own virtual world

In other words: All the necessary interest is there to build the metaverse, but it’s still lacking a practical use to draw in those interested would-be users. — Derek Robertson

the future in 5 links

Stay in touch with the whole team:  Ben Schreckinger  ( bschreckinger@politico.com );  Derek Robertson  ( drobertson@politico.com );  Steve Heuser  ( sheuser@politico.com ); and  Benton Ives  ( bives@politico.com ). Follow us  @DigitalFuture  on Twitter.

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