Quarles departure gives Biden more room to reshape Fed

From: POLITICO's Morning Money - Tuesday Nov 09,2021 01:02 pm

Nov 09, 2021

By Kate Davidson and Aubree Eliza Weaver

Presented by Ripple

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Quick Fix

Big news Monday on the Federal Reserve personnel front — no, not that news.

The central bank announced that Randal Quarles, the Fed’s former vice chairperson for supervision, is stepping down at the end of December, giving President Joe Biden another vacancy to fill on the seven-member panel and wider latitude to reshape the central bank.

—This was not unexpected: Quarles’ term as vice chair ended in October, and many presumed he would leave the board after his term as chairperson of the Financial Stability Board ends in early December.

—Who’s on deck? While much of the focus around Fed nominations has been on the central bank’s chairman, the Fed’s vice chair for supervision is one of the most powerful financial regulators in the world, driving the agenda for oversight of big Wall Street firms. If Biden decides to nominate Jerome Powell for another term as chairman, Fed watchers and analysts expect the top supervisory job would be offered to Governor Lael Brainard, though some progressive groups have also pushed for former Fed Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin.

—What does it mean for policy? “If this happens, we would expect a gradual push to tougher bank capital requirements,” Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg said of a potential Brainard pick for vice chair. “It also should mean tougher reviews for regional bank mergers.”

Isaac Boltansky, a policy analyst at BTIG, says whomever Biden nominates to be Fed chair, he expects the president to tap progressive candidates for the remaining board seats. “Banks should expect the regulatory pendulum to swing back toward more restrictive” policy, he said. “But we believe new regulatory priorities (e.g. climate, crypto, CRA) will be higher on the agenda.”

—What’s next? Richard Clarida, the Fed’s vice chairman for monetary policy, is expected to step down next when his term expires at the end of January. That would give the Biden administration another open seat to fill, in addition to one current vacancy on the Fed board and the seat that will soon be vacated by Quarles.

Meanwhile, the White House is expected to announce a decision on whether Biden will keep or replace Powell by Thanksgiving at the latest, our colleague Tina Sfondeles reports. Markets widely expect Powell will get the nod but likely won’t be ruffled by a Brainard pick.

“While the Fed chairmanship is always consequential, right now it’s among one of the most important decisions Biden will have to make heading into a midterm election year, as fears of persistently higher inflation on everything from meat to gasoline threatens to overshadow progress on his economic agenda,” she and your MM host wrote in Monday’s West Wing Playbook.

Either way, Powell’s nine-month-long job audition is finally nearing its end.

IT’S TUESDAY — If you’re in D.C., get outside and enjoy that last gasp of early Autumn weather. And send us your tips, feedback and ideas for MM at kdavidson@politico.com, aweaver@politico.com , or on Twitter @katedavidson.

Also! It’s the last day for our colleague Kellie Mejdrich, who is headed to Law360 to cover employee benefits. She will be missed! Give her a shoutout on Twitter @kelmej.

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Driving the Day

Labor Department releases data on producer prices at 8:30 a.m. ... Fed Chair Powell speaks at 9 a.m. at a joint conference hosted by the Fed, Bank of England, Bank of Canada and European Central Bank on diversity and inclusion in economics … San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks at 11:35 a.m. … National Association for Business Economics hosts its fifth Tech Economics conference on Monday and Tuesday … American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and SIFMA hold their national conference on the securities industry Monday through Wednesday.

THE SEC WANTS MORE LABOR FORCE DATA: From Kellie Mejdrich: “The Securities and Exchange Commission is wading into a potential legal and lobbying firestorm as it prepares to force public companies to disclose more details on their workforces — including race and gender makeup.

“SEC Chair Gary Gensler says he is responding to investor demand for greater corporate transparency around not just diversity data but also metrics on compensation, safety and turnover. He’s poised to face resistance from business lobbying groups and Republican lawmakers, who are already warning that the reporting rules could amount to political interference in the operations of businesses.”

SEC NAMES LEADERS TO AUDIT BOARD: From Kellie again: “The Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday named a handful of veteran financial policymakers to lead the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, in what officials said was the most diverse set of appointees in the audit watchdog's history.

“The SEC picked former agency staffer Erica Williams to chair the PCAOB. Former SEC Commissioner Kara Stein , Obama-era Treasury official Christina Ho and Commodity Futures Trading Commission chief administrative officer Anthony Thompson were named as board members.”

DON’T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO’s new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.

OCC CHIEF HAS CLIMATE TO-DO LIST FOR BANK BOARDS: By our Lorraine Woellert: “Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu said Monday that he wants banks to develop plans to manage climate risk and released a list of questions their boards should be asking as the regulator begins drafting guidelines. ‘What I'm hearing from banks is just tell me what to do,’ Hsu told reporters. ‘If we knew exactly what they needed to do, we would tell them.’”

ROBINHOOD DATA BREACH AFFECTS MILLIONS OF USERS: From Kellie again: “Online stock brokerage Robinhood on Monday said a hacker last week obtained five million user email addresses and two million customer names, in a breach that's likely to further fuel Washington's scrutiny of the startup.”

FED WARNS OF CHINA REAL ESTATE SPILLOVER EFFECTS — From your MM host: “Stresses in China’s real estate sector could strain the Chinese financial system and spill over to the United States, the Federal Reserve warned in a financial stability report released Monday.

“Given the size of China’s economy and financial system as well as its extensive trade linkages with the rest of the world, financial stresses in China could strain global financial markets through a deterioration of risk sentiment, pose risks to global economic growth, and affect the United States,” the report said.

U.S. REGULATORS EYE POST-PANDEMIC TREASURY MARKET CHANGES — From Kellie again: “The Biden administration and top financial regulators on Monday signaled plans for more safeguards in the U.S. government bond market, as part of a report on trading disruptions at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.

“The report by the Inter-Agency Working Group for Treasury Market Surveillance found that instability seen in March 2020 had similarities to previous market stress events, including the October 2014 flash rally. Agencies that drafted the report include the Treasury Department, Federal Reserve, SEC and CFTC.”

U.S. TARGETS RANSOMWARE HACKERS WITH ARRESTS, SANCTIONS — From our Eric Geller: “The Biden administration on Monday took a major swipe at ransomware criminals with a suite of announcements about prosecutions, payment recoveries, financial sanctions and bounties.

“The Justice Department charged two associates of the Russian-speaking REvil ransomware gang with perpetrating a spate of attacks, including one that led to a major cascade of digital intrusions worldwide. The Treasury Department announced sanctions against the two men as well as a cryptocurrency exchange that has facilitated ransom payments. And the State Department promised rewards for assistance in dismantling REvil.”

FED WATCH — Bloomberg’s Craig Torres, Jennifer Jacobs and Saleha Mohsin report Brainard wasn’t just visiting the White House last week, in case there was any doubt — she was there to be interviewed for the top central bank job, according to people familiar with the matter. They add: “The White House has raised the possibility with some Senate Banking Committee members that Powell might not be reappointed, according to two people familiar with the matter.”

BRING ON THE SCOREKEEPERS — Here’s one for the budget nerds: The success or failure of big legislation on Capitol Hill can often turn on the all-important budget score — that is, the cost of the bill as determined by Congress’s nonpartisan scorekeeper, the Congressional Budget Office. The NYT’s Margot Sanger-Katz and Emily Cochrane talked to former CBO directors about why the job is so complex and demanding.

WINTER WORRY: RISING INFLATION — Ahead of tomorrow’s consumer price report, NYT’s Talmon Joseph Smith (who recently moved to the newsroom from editing in the opinion section) writes about another unwelcome price increase on the horizon: a widely expected increase in winter heating bills.

“After plunging during the pandemic as the global economy slowed, energy prices have roared upward. Natural gas, used to heat almost half of U.S. households, has almost doubled in price since this time last year. The price of crude oil — which deeply affects the 10 percent of households that rely on heating oil and propane during the winter — has soared by similarly eye-popping levels.”

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Jobs Report

Sierra Robinson has joined Citi’s federal government affairs team in Washington as of this week. Sierra previously worked in congressional affairs at the Export-Import Bank and Federal Emergency Management Agency, and before that worked on the Hill for Sen. Mike Crapo (R- Idaho).

Fly Around

WALL STREET PUSHES BACK AS SEC TARGETS BUSINESS PRACTICE THAT GENERATES BILLIONS — WSJ’s Paul Kiernan: “Wall Street is fighting back as Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler considers policy changes that threaten to upend a lucrative business model. Trading firms and brokers have ramped up their lobbying efforts and campaign donations to Republicans seeking to win control of Congress in next year’s midterm elections. They’ve become especially vocal about Mr. Gensler’s scrutiny of payment for order flow, whereby some brokerages sell their clients’ stock and option orders to high-speed trading firms that execute the trades.”

POWELL: PANDEMIC RECESSION HAS PARTICULARLY HURT WOMEN — AP’s Christopher Rugaber: “Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed concern Monday that the pandemic recession has had an unusually harmful economic effect on women , who have been forced to shoulder additional responsibilities for childcare, forcing many of them to leave work. ‘As schools closed and childcare services shuttered during the worst of the pandemic, that added responsibility and stress made working more difficult for some and took many away from their jobs,’ Powell said in remarks to a Fed conference on gender and the economy. ‘These burdens are real and have been an additional challenge during an already challenging time.’”

SPAC TIED TO TRUMP’S MEDIA VENTURE SEEKS WALL STREET BACKING — Bloomberg’s Gillian Tan: “The blank-check company tied to Donald Trump’s new media venture has already won the support of retail traders who have sent the stock up almost 500 percent. Now, big Wall Street investors are getting another opportunity to pile in, even as some financial firms have distanced themselves from doing business with the former U.S. president.

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