|
Presented by NAFCU: Delivered daily by 8 a.m., Morning Money examines the latest news in finance politics and policy. | | | | | |  | | By Kate Davidson and Aubree Eliza Weaver | Presented by NAFCU | Editor’s Note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services morning newsletter, which is delivered to our s each morning at 5:15 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day’s biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro. | | | The Labor Department is set to release new employment data tomorrow for November, which forecasters expect to show another solid month for hiring. Economists estimate employers added 573,000 new jobs last month, up from 531,000 in October. They also project the jobless rate ticked down again, to 4.5 percent from 4.6 percent the month before. Another big burst of hiring could bolster the case for Federal Reserve officials to accelerate their plans to wrap up their monthly asset purchases, which Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week may be appropriate given elevated inflation readings. That could position the Fed to raise interest rates in the first half of next year. Indeed, many forecasters pulled forward their forecast for the Fed’s next interest rate increase after Powell’s testimony. And about half of investors in federal funds futures markets are now betting the central bank will raise rates by May and lift rates at least three times next year, according to CME Group. While job growth has picked up and the unemployment rate is edging lower, Powell could face pressure over the coming weeks from progressive groups over another key metric: labor-force participation. The share of Americans who have a job or are actively looking for work has remained stuck near 61.6 percent for months, short of where it was before the pandemic. Policymakers had expected more workers would return to the labor market this fall, after schools reopened and enhanced jobless benefits expired. That hasn’t happened, and Powell this week said it may take much longer than initially expected for workers to come back. Deutsche Bank economists estimate that half of the overall decline in participation is due to caregiving responsibilities — for prime-age workers, it explains about two-thirds of the decline. “Until the pandemic is under control to an extent that allows potential workers to predictably forecast caregiving needs, prime age participation will remain short of pre-Covid highs,” they wrote. Lindsay Owens, executive director at the Groundwork Collaborative, said she expects November’s jobs report will show strong job growth but a fairly stubborn disparity between Black and white unemployment. “We’re still missing millions of jobs,” compared to the pre-pandemic labor market, Owens said. “So our view is that there’s no reason to take our foot off the gas in this moment.” IT’S THURSDAY — So what are some options for Team Transitory’s rebrand, now that Jay Powell has retired the word? Our pal Jeanna Smialek at the New York Times has a winner: Team Fizzle. Other options: Recede, dissipate, slacken, retrograde. Can you do better? Email us your suggestions, and tips of course, at kdavidson@politico.com or aweaver@politico.com, or hit us up on Twitter @katedavidson or @aubreeeweaver. | | A message from NAFCU: Big Bank Bullies are attacking credit unions again. With their army of lobbyists, they’re distorting their own record of racking up $243 billion in fines, buying back billions of their own stock, and paying their executives more than 290 times what an average American makes in a year. Enough is enough. Let's set the record straight and say no to Big Bank Bullies. Learn more now. | | | | | | TICK, TICK: DEM ANXIETY SPIKES AS GOP DIGS IN OVER SHUTDOWN — Our colleagues Sarah Ferris and Caitlin Emma: “Democrats are suddenly scrambling to avoid a possible government shutdown in less than 72 hours amid stalled talks with GOP leaders and conservatives now vowing a rebellion over the Biden administration's Covid vaccine mandate.” Speaker Nancy Pelosi had planned to reach a deal on a stopgap funding measure by Wednesday morning, which would have allowed both chambers to pass the bill and avoid a shutdown after the current funding expires at 12:01 a.m. on Saturday. Now, GOP leaders have dug in, and some far-right members are vowing to use procedural powers to trigger a brief weekend shutdown in protest over the president’s vaccine mandates. — Not all Republicans are on board with the idea of flirting with a shutdown over the vaccine debate, our Burgess Everett reports. MM sidebar: A one- or two-day funding lapse over a weekend would have little practical impact on government operations, as most federal offices are closed and agencies have contingency plans ready to go. Even a brief shutdown, however, would serve as another reminder to the rest of the world of Washington’s perennial dysfunction, and create uncertainty for millions of federal workers. In short, it’s not great but not disastrous. | | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | CHOPRA PUTS BANKS ON NOTICE: CFPB IS OVER OVERDRAFTS — Our Katy O’Donnell: “The CFPB is planning to crack down on banks' use of overdraft fees after finding the fines brought in $15.5 billion for financial institutions in 2019, according to a new pair of reports the agency released Wednesday. “‘Rather than competing on quality service and attractive interest rates, many banks have become hooked on overdraft fees to feed their profit model,’ CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a statement. “We will be taking action to restore meaningful competition to this market.” Three banks — JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Bank of America — accounted for 44 percent of the total revenue reported in 2019 by banks with over $1 billion in assets, according to the research, while smaller institutions with overdraft programs typically charged smaller fees. — Capital One gets ahead of the news: The bank, which is the sixth-largest retail bank in the country, on Wednesday put out a statement before the CFPB reports announcing it would no longer charge fees for overdraft protection. “Overdraft protection is a valuable and convenient feature and can be an important safety net for families,” CEO Richard Fairbank said. “We are excited to offer this service for free.” Consumer advocates praised the move. — Meanwhile, research firm Curinos released a study today on behalf of the Consumer Bankers Association showing overdraft use is declining and that consumers understand the cost of using overdrafts. WATERS CALLS CRYPTO LEADERS TO CAPITOL HILL — Six crypto industry executives will testify on Dec. 8 before the House Financial Services Committee, as lawmakers ramp up scrutiny of digital asset trading, our Zachary Warmbrodt reports. House Financial Services Chair Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) announced the hearing Wednesday. She has previously summoned top Wall Street CEOs to appear before her committee. The executives who will face lawmaker questions include: — Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire — Coinbase CFO Alesia Haas — FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried — Bitfury CEO and former acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks — Paxos CEO Charles Cascarilla — Stellar Development Foundation CEO Denelle Dixon DEBT LIMIT TRACKER — Want a more detailed look at how close the Treasury is getting to the debt limit X date? Keep an eye out for CNBC’s debt limit tracker. The network has teamed up with the Bipartisan Policy Center to show how much cash the government has to keep paying its bills on time. The latest update, as of Nov. 29, shows the Treasury with about $272 billion — “still in the yellow zone but a little more than it had at [the] end of last week,” CNBC’s Ylan Mui said. | | | | Timothy Geithner, former Obama Treasury secretary and a Warburg Pincus executive, will join fellow former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson as co-chair of the Aspen Economic Strategy Group beginning in January. Geithner will take over for Erskine Bowles, who co-founded the group with Paulson and is stepping down after five years as co-chair. Long-time Bank of America lobbyist John Collingwood will retire at the end of the year, Larry DiRita, the bank’s head of global public policy, announced in a memo Tuesday. Jim Carlisle, who has been at B of A since 2008, will succeed Collingwood as federal government relations executive. Adam Elias, who previously served as head of federal government affairs at Barclays and as chief of staff for Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.), is also joining the bank’s government relations team | | | | A message from NAFCU:   | | | | | | MARKETS TURN CAUTIOUS — AP’s Stan Choe, Damian J. Troise and Alex Veiga: “Another roller-coaster ride on Wall Street whipsawed investors Wednesday as an early market rally reversed course by midafternoon, piling up more losses for stocks.” And some pandemic-favorite stocks are suffering — WSJ’s Karen Langley: “The prospect of higher interest rates is diminishing investors’ appetite for riskier corners of the stock market. Many stocks suffering lately are businesses tied to technology and innovation, some of which don’t regularly turn a profit.” POWELL: FED ‘NOT AT ALL SURE’ INFLATION WILL FADE NEXT YEAR — AP’s Christopher Rugaber: “In a fresh sign of his growing concerns about inflation, Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the Federal Reserve can’t be sure that price increases will slow in the second half of next year as many economists expect.” YELLEN DEFENDS SPENDING PLANS — WSJ’s Nick Timiraos and Amara Omeokwe: “Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Wednesday defended Democrats’ efforts to pass a roughly $2 trillion social-spending package, amid Republicans’ criticisms that fiscal policy implemented earlier this year overstimulated the economy and fueled higher inflation. ‘We had a very sizable fiscal stimulus,’ Ms. Yellen told the House Financial Services Committee. ‘We addressed what was a very substantial risk’ of a prolonged economic downturn, she said.” | | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | NEW YORK FED CHIEF SAYS FED WILL ‘GRAPPLE’ WITH A FASTER BOND-BUYING TAPER — NYT’s Ben Casselman and Jeanna Smialek: “John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said the latest variant of the coronavirus could prolong the bottlenecks and shortages that have caused inflation to run hotter than expected, and is a risk Fed officials will assess as they ‘grapple’ with how quickly to remove economic support. It is still too soon to know how the Omicron variant, which public health officials in southern Africa identified just last week, will affect the economy, Mr. Williams said Tuesday in an interview with The New York Times.” FED SURVEY: U.S. FIRMS BATTLING HIGHER INFLATION, WORKER SHORTAGES — Reuters’ Lindsay Dunsmuir and Ann Saphir: “The U.S. economy expanded at a modest-to-moderate pace in October and the first half of November while firms grappled with rising inflation and a scramble to fill jobs amid labor shortages, a survey conducted by the Federal Reserve showed on Wednesday.’” BIDEN CONSIDERING BOSTIC, BLOOM RASKIN, CORDRAY FOR FED SUPERVISION POST — Bloomberg’s Nancy Cook, Jennifer Jacobs and Craig Torres: “President Joe Biden is considering Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic and Duke University law professor Sarah Bloom Raskin to be the Fed’s top banking regulator, along with former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray and others, according to people familiar with the matter. The White House is presently conducting interviews for positions on the Fed’s Board of Governors, the people said.” HOW OMICRON COULD EXACERBATE SUPPLY CHAINS -- CNN’s Matt Egan: Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo is concerned the Omicron coronavirus variant will exacerbate pressure on the already stressed-out global supply chain. ‘It's way too soon to tell. But I do worry, because we know people are afraid to go to work,’ Raimondo told CNN during an interview at her Washington office.”
| | A message from NAFCU: Big Bank Bullies continue to attack credit unions to eliminate their competition. It’s not enough that they’re seeing record profits. Big banks want credit unions out of their way so they can have the same unhinged control that enabled them to recklessly cause the 2008 financial crisis.
In fact, regulators have slammed Big Bank Bullies with a staggering $243 billion in fines—in just the last 15 years. But big banks wrote off the fines, spent $100 billion buying back their own stock, and paid their CEOs hundreds of millions of dollars.
Enough is enough. Join a credit union today. Credit unions are proud of their track record meeting the needs of their 127 million members with better rates and services. Sponsored by NAFCU, friend to Main Street credit unions, not Wall Street banks.
Learn more and say no to Big Bank Bullies. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
