The OG wolf warrior lands in DC

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Thursday Jul 29,2021 07:56 pm
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By Nahal Toosi and Quint Forgey

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Welcome to National Security Daily , POLITICO’s newsletter on the global events roiling Washington and keeping the administration up at night. I’m Nahal Toosi, POLITICO’s foreign affairs correspondent, filling in for Alex Ward this week as your guide to what’s happening inside the Pentagon, the NSC and D.C.’s foreign policy machine. National Security Daily arrives in your inbox Monday through Friday by 4 p.m.; if you’re receiving this as a forward from a friend, do yourself a favor and subscribe here.

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China’s newly arrived ambassador in Washington, QIN GANG, was an early pioneer of the aggressive “wolf warrior” style of diplomacy that is increasingly defining Beijing’s approach to the United States and the world.

As a Foreign Ministry spokesperson, he would mock members of the media, once telling a journalist: “I hope you can report based on reality, not based on your delusions.”

But upon taking up his new post this week, Beijing’s latest envoy struck a soothing tone at a time of high tensions with the United States. He promised to “endeavor to bring China-U.S. relations back on track, turning the way for the two countries to get along with each other.”

Pretty much no one in Washington is buying it.

Whether in the Biden administration or the broader D.C. foreign policy establishment, the expectation is that Qin will be an undiplomatic diplomat — one happy to toss rhetorical spears at his hosts. Simply the fact that Qin was chosen for a job long held by the more traditional, low-key CUI TIANKAI is a signal that Beijing isn’t planning to play nice anytime soon, China watchers say.

Some caveats, of course: Diplomats don’t have that much power in the Chinese communist ruling structure, and it’s not quite clear how close Qin is with the man who really matters, Chinese leader XI JINPING.

Plus, Qin is a diplomat, which means he’s supposed to reflect what the boss wants on any given day. As China analyst BONNIE GLASER puts it, Chinese diplomats are especially good at “showing different faces” in different contexts.

One of the most important things Qin can do is “faithfully report to Beijing what he’s hearing, not sugarcoat it,” Glaser said. That’s not easy in China’s system, where many officials get nervous about giving Xi bad news.

Events this week suggest there’s not going to be much that’s positive to report.

China used Deputy Secretary of State WENDY SHERMAN’s meetings with officials in Tianjin to shower the United States with criticism. Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers from both political parties used a hearing about corporate sponsorship of the 2022 Winter Olympics in China to slam Beijing for its abuses — especially its crackdown on Uyghur Muslims in the Xinjiang region.

Quite often, Chinese diplomats simply dismiss claims that their government is doing anything wrong. But Human Rights Watch’s SOPHIE RICHARDSON, whom Beijing recently sanctioned, said Qin will lack credibility in Washington unless he honestly confronts such allegations.

“I will be watching very closely to see if his superficial assertiveness is actually underpinned by a willingness to engage in factual discussions, instead of saying all is peaceful and harmonious and everyone is happy in Xinjiang,” she told NatSec Daily.

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The Inbox

MURPHY'S LAW: Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) has been urging the Biden administration to withhold $300 million in military aid to Egypt due to that country’s human rights abuses, laying out his reasons on the Senate floor this week. Today, Murphy made clear to NatSec Daily in an interview that he’s not interested in any half-measures.

The $300 million is a slice of $1.3 billion in annual U.S. military aid to Egypt on which Congress has put human rights conditions. The fate of the $300 million is being debated at the State Department, with a decision expected as soon as next week from Secretary ANTONY BLINKEN, who can waive the congressional conditions.

People familiar with the issue say a compromise is possible: For instance, freezing some of the $300 million or giving all the money but putting strict conditions on its use.

Not cool, Murphy says.

“This is very much about the message we’re sending to the rest of the region and the rest of the world, so some halfway measure doesn’t do the trick,” the senator told us.

“The law is the law. The law says you can’t provide this $300 million unless you can certify there’s been demonstrable progress on human rights. That progress has not been made. … I also worry that a half-measure won’t make anybody happy. The Egyptians will still feel like they’ve been slapped in the face, but the world will not feel the full moral impact.”

WHAT BID MEANS FOR NATSEC: In a memo today to senior staff, White House National Security Adviser JAKE SULLIVAN lays out why the new bipartisan infrastructure deal is a boost for America’s security and its related ability to compete with China. One reason? “Our public domestic investment as a share of the economy has fallen more than 40% in the last 60 years — even as China’s public investment continues to grow,” he notes.

WELCOME TO NATIONAL SECURITY DAILY. Thanks for tuning in to POLITICO’s newsletter on the national security politics roiling Washington. NatSec Daily is for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage is made. Please share this subscription link with a colleague or friend. Follow the whole team here: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @QuintForgey.

THE BEST PART OF WAKING UP … IS MORNING D IN YOUR INBOX: Morning Defense is now turbo-charged and better than ever, coming at Pro s bright and early every a.m. Get more intel and sign up here. Don’t let your competition be the first to act on industry scoops, breaking Pentagon news, the latest aerospace developments, and new reporters covering defense acquisitions and influence.

Blowing Up

TALIBAN TAKES CREDIT FOR KILLING AFGHAN COMIC: The Islamic fundamentalist group has acknowledged responsibility for the death of NAZAR MOHAMMAD — popularly known as KHASHA ZWAN — who was seen in a viral video being slapped and abused by two men, per KATHY GANNON of the Associated Press.

Mohammad was later killed, shot multiple times. A Taliban spokesperson confirmed the assailants were among the group’s ranks, and said they had been arrested and would be tried. The spokesperson also alleged Mohammad was a member of the Afghan National Police and had been implicated in the torture and killing of Taliban.

U.S. READYING NEW IRAN SANCTIONS: The United States is planning a sanctions campaign against Iran meant to target Tehran’s evolving capabilities for precision strikes using drones and guided missiles, according to The Wall Street Journal’s IAN TALLEY and BENOIT FAUCON.

Western security officials argue those capabilities are a more immediate danger to Middle East stability than Iran’s nuclear enrichment and ballistic missile programs, the Journal reports. Meanwhile, top military and diplomatic officials say they’ve seen a major increase in the use of guided missiles and drones against U.S. forces and allies.

Keystrokes

AI TECH HELPS TRACK IRANIAN NUCLEAR SITE: Analysts with Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation used artificial intelligence technology to reach their recent assessment that Iran is perhaps 18 to 24 months from completing an underground centrifuge assembly hall at its Natanz nuclear facility.

Because the new assembly hall is being built deep within a mountain — where it is less vulnerable to air strikes and hidden from imaging satellites — CISAC deployed AI tools from Orbital Insight, the geospatial analytics company, to aid in tracking construction workers and labor fluctuations at the site, per Defense One’s PATRICK TUCKER.

The Complex

SECDEF IN MANILA: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN — on the final leg of his Southeast Asia trip, after having visited Singapore and Vietnam — reported that he had a “productive meeting” today with President RODRIGO DUTERTE of the Philippines.

“We discussed the importance of the U.S.-Philippines alliance and the strong ties between our people,” the Pentagon chief tweeted, along with a video of himself fist-bumping the foreign leader.

THE PENTAGON’S PROBLEM WITH NEW TECH: A new report published by Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology slams the military’s current approach to engaging with small technology companies as akin to “innovation tourism.”

The report from MELISSA FLAGG and JACK CORRIGAN describes the Defense Department’s push to usher more private sector innovation into the Pentagon. Those efforts, they write, “have not driven innovative capabilities into the major systems and platforms that make up the bulk of the military’s force structure.”

The Pentagon’s various innovation offices aren’t to blame, the authors conclude. Instead, the problem stems from “a failure of the department’s leadership to integrate them into the broader DOD acquisition ecosystem. … [U]nder the DOD’s current organizational structure, defense innovation is disconnected from defense procurement.”

REDESIGNING DHS: The Department of Homeland Security is in need of “substantial updates” to maximize its strengths and improve its ability to adapt to threats, according to a new report published by the Center for a New American Security.

The agency, established in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, “now has day-to-day responsibilities and activities that are, in some key places, out of sync with that original organizing objective” of countering acts of international terrorism on American soil, write CARRIE CORDERO and KATIE GALGANO.

The authors recommend that policymakers and legislators “take the current opportunity of new departmental leadership and renewed congressional oversight interest to refocus the department’s work in a way that maximizes its homeland security impact while ensuring appropriate oversight of its law enforcement activities.”

 

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On the Hill

TRANSLATING CHINA AND RUSSIA: A bipartisan band of congressmen have introduced a bill to create a federally funded research and development center that would translate into English important open source foreign-language material from China, Russia and other countries of strategic interest.

This new Open Translation and Analysis Center — proposed by Reps. JOAQUIN CASTRO (D-Texas), MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.), BILL KEATING (D-Mass.) and BRIAN FITZPATRICK (R-Pa.) — would make the translated material available on a public website and provide information to help readers understand its significance.

The lawmakers’ effort aims to revive an arm of the old U.S. Cold War arsenal, according to DAVID BRUNNSTROM of Reuters , as the OTAC would be based on the Foreign Broadcast Information Service — which provided translation and analysis of Soviet bloc and other foreign government media during the post-World War II conflict.

Broadsides

BORDER STRATEGY BLOWBACK: Back in February, President JOE BIDEN signed an executive order demanding that administration officials prepare formal blueprints for addressing the root causes of irregular migration in Central America and collaboratively managing migration in the region.

After six months of work, the White House revealed its end product today: A pair of lengthy strategy documents and a host of forthcoming federal actions. Predictably, Biden’s loudest congressional critics on U.S.-Mexico border issues were left unsatisfied.

Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) took aim at Vice President KAMALA HARRIS, whom Biden has tasked with addressing the root causes component of the migration. “The Vice President’s new ‘strategy’ implies she had a strategy to begin with,” the senator said in a statement.

“For months she and President Biden have hidden, waffled, and done everything but tackle this crisis head on. Meanwhile, the situation on the border has gone from bad, to worse, to a catastrophe,” Cornyn added.

What to Read

Breaking Defense:Qatar’s Massive Increase In Military Power Comes With Political, Logistical Headaches

Sandboxx News:How Russia Is Using ‘Brute Force’ In Its Cyber War With America

DAVID IGNATIUS, The Washington Post:Opinion: A Saudi official’s harrowing account of torture reveals the regime’s brutality

Transitions

NEW AMBASSADOR NOMINATIONS: Biden has tapped JONATHAN ERIC KAPLAN as U.S. ambassador to Singapore and FRANCISCO O. MORA as U.S. representative to the Organization of American States.

The president also nominated NICOLE ANGARELLA as inspector general at the United States Agency for International Development; JOHN PLUMB for assistant secretary for space policy at the Defense Department; AMY SEARIGHT as assistant administrator for the Bureau for Asia at the United States Agency for International Development; and ALEX WAGNER as assistant secretary of the Air Force for Manpower and Reserve Affairs at the Defense Department.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Keeping America competitive.

The F-35 program generates $49 billion in economic impact and supports over a quarter of a million high-tech, high-skill jobs. Learn More

 
Tomorrow Today

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8:30 a.m.:Eleventh Annual South China Sea Conference: Session One

— The National Bureau of Asian Research, 9:30 a.m.:PRC Pressure on Taiwan: Same Strategy, New Tactics

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

 

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