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Presented by Lockheed Martin: From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | | Welcome to National Security Daily, POLITICO’s newsletter on the global events roiling Washington and keeping the administration up at night. I’m Alex Ward, your guide to what’s happening inside the Pentagon, the NSC and D.C.’s foreign policy machine. National Security Daily arrives in your inbox Monday through Friday by 4 p.m.; subscribe here. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com. Follow us on Twitter @alexbward and @QuintForgey. The era of a changed climate is here, and some of its effects are “unprecedented” and “irreversible for centuries to millennia.” That’s the central, depressing conclusion from a new report by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the most comprehensive account yet of our warming world and the disastrous effects it will have on all of us. “Human-induced climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe,” the IPCC authors concluded in the summary of their report — which brought 234 authors across 66 countries together to analyze more than 14,000 studies. “Evidence of observed changes in extremes such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts, and tropical cyclones, and, in particular, their attribution to human influence, has strengthened since” the panel’s last report in 2013. The situation isn’t likely to get any better. Despite a global political commitment to cap rising temperatures at 1.5 degrees Celsius, the IPCC assesses the world will blow past that marker within two decades. And our own ZACK COLMAN and KARL MATHIESEN noted that those “rare” weather events we get are about to become a lot more frequent. “The IPCC said that a once-in-a-decade drought would instead occur every five years under the 1.5-degree scenario, and every four years under the 2-degree rise,” they wrote. “Even now, with global average temperatures up more than 1 degree Celsius from the 1850-1900 average, the chance of a once-per-50-years drought has become likely every decade, while the once-a-decade drought occurs about every six years.” The findings have even optimistic climate change fighters a little concerned: “The IPCC report underscores the overwhelming urgency of this moment. The world must come together before the ability to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is out of reach,” the U.S. special envoy for climate change JOHN KERRY told NatSec Daily. “All major economies must commit to aggressive climate action during this critical decade,” Kerry added. “It’s the only way to put us on a credible track to global net zero emissions by midcentury. We can get to the low carbon economy we urgently need, but time is not on our side.” The U.N. will host a major climate conference in Glasgow in three months, and Kerry said that session “must be a turning point in this crisis.” While the Biden administration has already made sizable climate change commitments, there remain questions about whether the United States and other nations should do more. The IPCC’s report implicitly answers: “Yeah, duh.” | | A message from Lockheed Martin: How Experimentation Can Speed Joint All-Domain Operations (JADO)
By partnering with every branch of the U.S. military and allies in experiments like Northern Edge, Lockheed Martin is helping warfighters make better, faster decisions in the battlespace. Learn More | | | | | | DOD MANDATES VACCINES FOR TROOPS: Secretary of Defense LLOYD AUSTIN decided today to mandate vaccines for all U.S. service members by mid-September or earlier if the Food and Drug Administration green lights the shot. “I have every confidence that Service leaders and your commanders will implement this new vaccination program with professionalism, skill, and compassion,” he wrote in a memo to all DOD staff. “To defend this Nation, we need a healthy and ready force. I strongly encourage all DoD military and civilian personnel — as well as contractor personnel — to get vaccinated now and for military Service members to not wait for the mandate.” Austin also said the Pentagon will abide by the Biden administration’s vaccination guidelines for federal employees, meaning workers must confirm they’re vaccinated or be subject to masking requirements and frequent testing. Shortly after the memo’s release, President JOE BIDEN released a statement: “I strongly support Secretary Austin’s message” and added that “We are still on a wartime footing, and every American who is eligible should take immediate steps to get vaccinated right away.” TALIBAN SELFIES IN KUNDUZ: The Taliban overran the cities of Kunduz, Taliqan and Sar-i-Pul over the weekend, continuing the militant group’s blitzkrieg across Afghanistan. The Wall Street Journal’s YAROSLAV TROFIMOV detailed some of the chilling scenes after the takeover of Kunduz. “The Taliban, relaxed and cheerful, began to take selfies on the city’s main square, Sar-e-Chowk. They were now in charge. ‘Congratulations, congratulations,’ a bearded commander shouted from the center of the square. … Footage released on social media showed Taliban fighters, wearing camouflage shalwar kameez and black slippers, driving around in Ford Rangers that still had the markings of the Afghan National Army — and white Taliban flags attached to the front grates.” Ask the Biden administration if the United States will help curb the Taliban’s military rise, and the answer is usually the same: Kabul must fend for itself. Ask Afghan officials, and they’ll now say peace talks between the government and the Taliban are deader than dead. “Unfortunately, the Taliban don’t believe in the peace talks,” MOHAMMAD AMIRI, a spokesperson for Afghan President ASHRAF GHANI, told ELTAF NAJAFIZADA of Bloomberg News. “They are trying to grab power by force and such acts are not acceptable to the people and government of Afghanistan.” NatSec Daily reached out to Amiri to see if he stood by that statement. He offered us a walkback: “President Ghani and the Afghan government believe that peace is the only solution to cease-fire and establish[ing a] just and lasting peace in Afghanistan,” he told us in a text message. “President Ghani has never lost his hope for peace and peace talks,” noting that the Kabul-aligned negotiating team is in Doha right now. But, Amiri added, “If the Taliban wants to increase violence and war as they did in recent months, the people and the Afghan government have to defend himself.” BELARUS SANCTIONS: Today is the one-year anniversary of Belarus’ rigged election, which led to a fatal standoff between incumbent President ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO and thousands of protesters demanding a free and fair vote. To stop the autocrat from further repressing his people, Biden signed an executive order Monday placing sanctions on Belarusians and entities close to the regime. Per a White House fact sheet, the targets include the state-owned firm Belaruskali OAO, the Belarusian National Olympic Committee and individuals close to Lukashenko’s inner circle, including the 15 companies those people are connected to. “WE’RE FALLING BEHIND”: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN has made no secret that he and many others in the administration believe the line between “foreign” and “domestic” policy has become increasingly blurred. The top U.S. diplomat reiterated that message again today at the University of Maryland. But this time, he also struck a dire warning. “Whether America protects and invests in our strength at home is going to determine whether we remain strong in the world and deliver results for the American people,” Blinken said in his remarks. “We could be doing better. That is the hard truth. We’re falling behind where we once were in the world. And our rivals, slowly but surely, are pulling closer behind us. In some areas, they’re already ahead of us. And this matters. It matters because if these trends continue, we’ll be less competitive in a more competitive world.” If it wasn’t already obvious, this speech was also meant as a “China is eating our lunch unless we act” address. Even from his globetrotting perch atop the State Department, Blinken is still a salesman for Biden’s domestic agenda. This speech, timed as Congress works to pass a behemoth infrastructure bill, is part of that broader effort. IT’S MONDAY. Thanks for tuning in to POLITICO’s newsletter on the national security politics roiling Washington. NatSec Daily is for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Please share this subscription link with a colleague or friend. Follow the whole team here: @alexbward, @QuintForgey, @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio. IF YOU’RE MISSING MORNING DEFENSE, DON’T WORRY — WE’RE STILL HERE: Coming at Pro s bright and early every a.m., if you’re not getting Morning D, you’re missing out. Learn more about our best-in-class insider reporters and sign up here. Don’t let your competition be the first to act on industry scoops, breaking Pentagon news, the latest aerospace developments, defense acquisitions and influence plays. And while you’re there, hit subscribe on our brand new Space Beat Memo, a week-ahead look at everything astropolitics. | | | THE HOUTHI COLD SHOULDER: The United Nations on Friday appointed Swedish diplomat HANS GRUNDBERG as its top envoy for Yemen peace talks. The Houthis’ lead negotiator MOHAMMED ABDULSALAM couldn’t care less. “There is no use in having any dialogue before airports and ports are opened as a humanitarian necessity and priority,” he said in a tweet, later telling Reuters that Grundberg “has nothing in his hands” to offer the warring parties. Safe to say that bodes poorly for any potential peaceful end to the conflict. Relatedly, U.S. Special Envoy for Yemen TIM LENDERKING said Monday that the United States had designated $165 million in new humanitarian assistance for the battle-scarred country. CHINA’S INFRASTRUCTURE LEAD: The Biden administration plans to label the passage of the infrastructure bill as a significant achievement that will help the United States catch up with China. But our own PHELIM KINE dug into Beijing’s own infrastructure investments, and it’s bad news for Washington. Here’s a number that is illustrative of the gap: China poured more cement from 2011-2013 than the United States did in the entire 20th century. Numbers from the National Bureau of Statistics show that China spent about $8 trillion on infrastructure investment in 2020. The U.S. spent $146 billion in federal money over the same period. A comparison of 2018 infrastructure spending as a percentage of GDP by 48 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries ranked China first at 5.57 percent compared to 0.52 percent for the U.S. And China isn’t slowing down. Its 2021 budget alone allocates $94 billion in spending for “new projects” that include “the development of new infrastructure.” RAISI RINGS UP MACRON: Iranian President EBRAHIM RAISI and French President EMMANUEL MACRON discussed potentially resuming stalled nuclear talks Monday in Raisi’s first phone call to a Western leader, per NASSER KARIMI of The Associated Press. Raisi remarked that “[i]n any negotiation, the rights of the Iranian nation should be secured and guaranteed,” while Macron urged Iran to “quickly resume negotiations in Vienna in order to get to a conclusion and put an end without delay to all the nuclear activities it is carrying out in breach of the agreement.” | | | |   | | | | | | GRID TESTING: From our own SAM SABIN at our sister newsletter Weekly Cybersecurity: As debate continues this week over the $550 billion infrastructure package , one component of the expansive measure is exciting cybersecurity experts — provisions testing the cyber resilience of the nation’s electric grid. “That’s the target that you could do the single most damage to the United States if you attack it, and it’s one we know that’s vulnerable,” said Jim Lewis, senior vice president and program director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The infrastructure bill includes two provisions specifically targeting the security of the electric grid: — The first is language from the Enhancing Grid Security Through Public-Private Partnerships Act, which passed the House last month and requires the Energy Department to set up a program to facilitate public-private partnerships to audit and assess the physical security and cybersecurity of utilities. It’s similar to a 100-day program the Energy Department started in April. — The second creates a Cyber Sense program at the Energy Department to test the cybersecurity of products being used in the bulk-power system. A bill setting up the program also passed in the House last month. Read more at Weekly Cybersecurity. | | | U.S.-SOUTH KOREA DRILLS KICK OFF TUESDAY: South Korea and the United States will conduct a four-day crisis management staff training beginning Tuesday ahead of full-scale military exercises between the two countries next week, South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reported Monday. The decision by Seoul and Washington to move forward with the drills — which will be scaled down due to the coronavirus pandemic — comes despite longstanding opposition by North Korea. DESERTED IN DUBAI: Thousands of foreign private security contractors who aided the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan — working on American bases as cleaners, cooks, construction workers, servers and technicians — are now stranded at hotels in Dubai as they await evacuation back to some of the world’s poorest countries, per ISABEL DEBRE of The Associated Press. “As the U.S. brings home its remaining troops and abandons its bases,” Debre writes, “experts say the chaotic departure of the Pentagon’s logistics army lays bare an uncomfortable truth about a privatized system long susceptible to mismanagement — one largely funded by American taxpayers but outside the purview of American law.” | | | LAWMAKERS PRESS SECDEF ON KENYA ATTACK: Reps. STEPHEN LYNCH (D-Mass.) and GLENN GROTHMAN (R-Wis.) — the top Democrat and Republican on the House Subcommittee on National Security — are incensed that Pentagon chief Austin hasn’t yet given them more information on a January 2020 attack in Kenya that killed three Americans. After sending a letter to the Defense Department in February 2020 requesting such details, “DOD has not provided any substantive information about the attack or the security lapses that contributed to it, citing ongoing investigations,” the lawmakers said in a missive to Austin on Friday. Per The Washington Post’s DAN LAMOTHE, in April, “Pentagon spokesman John Kirby announced that the investigation was complete. But rather than accept Africa Command’s assessment of its actions, Austin directed an independent review of the investigation. About a week later, Army Gen. STEPHEN J. TOWNSEND , who leads Africa Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that Austin had given the military ‘a target date of 90 days to get the report out.’ Nothing has been released.” | | | WAPO WHACKS BIDEN’S BORDER POLICY: One of America’s biggest newspapers is hitting Biden over the border. And spoiler alert: It’s not The Wall Street Journal. “In its apparent desperation to fashion an immigration strategy that will impose order on increasingly out-of-control migration, the Biden administration has unleashed a torrent of words and goals untethered to specific policies and timetables,” The Washington Post’s editorial board wrote in a scathing piece published Sunday. The Post’s editorial board also slammed the administration’s “convoluted messaging” on the issue as a “politically toxic” failure and singled out Vice President KAMALA HARRIS, Biden’s point person for addressing the underlying issues fueling the increase in Central American migration. The editorial board wrote that the vice president’s “Root Causes Strategy” released last month is a “perfectly sensible” long-term blueprint. However: “It’s also a list that anyone with a passing knowledge of the region could have compiled. What is mostly missing from the sweeping rhetoric and broad-strokes analysis is an actual plan for action.” BIDEN’S ROHINGYA RELUCTANCE: The president doesn’t have a problem labeling China’s Uyghur Muslims as genocide victims. So why won’t he say the same about Myanmar’s Rohingya Muslims? That question has frustrated U.S. lawmakers, foreign officials and activists who argue the president’s stance is intellectually inconsistent and insufficiently acknowledging of a yearslong humanitarian tragedy, reports our own NAHAL TOOSI. “This administration is undermining the legitimacy of its human rights policy by failing to make this declaration,” Sen. JEFF MERKLEY (D-Ore.) said, adding that Biden’s hesitancy to designate the Rohingya case as a genocide “undermines the legitimacy of the U.S. declaring other situations a genocide, particularly the way the Uyghurs are treated.” | | | CONSULTING FIRM DRAFTS RETIRED GENERAL, DIPLOMAT: Dentons Global Advisors - Albright Stonebridge Group is adding JOHN ABIZAID as a senior adviser with the firm’s Middle East & North Africa practice, and JASON HYLAND as a senior adviser with the firm’s East Asia & Pacific practice, per a company news release. Abizaid is a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia and a retired four-star U.S. Army general who served as commander of the U.S. Central Command. Hyland, most recently the president and representative officer of MGM Resorts Japan, served as the chargé d’affaires and deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo. SENATORS RUBBER-STAMP NAVY SECRETARY: The Senate confirmed CARLOS DEL TORO, a Cuban-born former naval officer, to be Navy secretary Saturday, per our own CONNOR O’BRIEN. Del Toro is the third and final of Biden’s picks for military service secretaries to win Senate approval — after Army Secretary CHRISTINE WORMUTH was confirmed in May and Air Force Secretary FRANK KENDALL was confirmed in July. CHRISTOPHER MAIER also was confirmed to be assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict over the weekend. JENNY FROM THE FP: JENNIFER WILLIAMS announced she will become a deputy editor of Foreign Policy magazine. Previously, she was the senior foreign editor at Vox.com (and your host’s former boss and podcast partner). The question now is this: Will she change her Twitter name? | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Global threats demand better connections between U.S. Armed Forces, allies and their technologies.
Nimble adversaries operating in remote locations challenge soldiers to make smarter, more rapid decisions in the field. Here’s how Lockheed Martin is helping U.S. Armed Forces fight and win in the modern battlespace. Learn More | | | | | | The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: “Climate Change 2021: Summary for Policymakers” The Atlantic: “What Bobby McIlvaine Left Behind” Foreign Affairs: “Strait of Emergency?: Debating’s Beijing’s Threat to Taiwan” | | | — The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 8 a.m.: “What is cyber power, and where is it going?” — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: “ Subcommittee on Near East, South Asia, Central Asia, and Counterterrorism Hearing: U.S. Security Assistance in the Middle East” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11:30 a.m.: “U.S. National Security Policy in the Indo-Pacific: A Conversation with Senator TAMMY DUCKWORTH” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
