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Presented by Lockheed Martin: From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | | | 
U.S. soldiers board a U.S. military aircraft as they leave Afghanistan, at the U.S. base in Bagram, north of Kabul, in 2011. | Musadeq Sadeq/AP Photo | Welcome to National Security Daily, POLITICO’s newsletter on the global events roiling Washington and keeping the administration up at night. I’m Alex Ward, your guide to what’s happening inside the Pentagon, the NSC and D.C.’s foreign policy machine. National Security Daily arrives in your inbox Monday through Friday by 4 p.m.; subscribe here. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com. Follow us on Twitter @alexbward and @QuintForgey. The more NatSec Daily talks to our contacts about Afghanistan, the more dire the circumstances appear. Three people knowledgeable of the situation said there are internal discussions underway about shuttering the U.S. embassy in Kabul (as one option among others), with one person saying the mission could be evacuated by the end of the month. Another said there has been a continuous and fluid conversation about how many American diplomats are needed in Kabul in light of the danger. The State Department didn’t deny an evacuation was being weighed. “Our posture has not changed,” a State official told NatSec Daily. “As we do for every diplomatic post in a challenging security environment, we will evaluate threats daily and make decisions that are in the interests of individuals serving at our Embassy about how to keep them safe,” the official said — adding that the embassy “has been on ordered departure status since April 27.” Meanwhile, a new U.S. military assessment says Kabul could fall to the Taliban within 90 days, and even as early as within a month, according to someone familiar with the intelligence — though this person also said it may take the militants up to six months to seize control of the entire capital city. “That’s how fluid the situation is,” this person told NatSec Daily. Details of the assessment, which included analysis from U.S. Central Command, Defense Intelligence Agency and CIA, were first reported by The Washington Post. Still, some in government are wary of the findings. “It doesn’t sound right. It runs the other way of how [the administration is] briefing,” said one Senate staffer. “The Taliban need another fighting season.” “It’s reasonable to think Kabul could be under increasing threat in 30 to 90 days,” JONATHAN SCHRODEN, an expert on the Afghanistan war at the CNA think tank, told NatSec Daily. But recent fighting in support of Afghan President ASHRAF GHANI’s government indicates “the warlords are still with Ghani. So long as that’s the case, it’ll take more than a month for the Taliban to take Kabul by force.” That’s not all. Two people familiar with the contents of a classified briefing for senators Monday said administration officials argued the decision confronting President JOE BIDEN came down to sending more troops to stabilize Afghanistan or continuing the U.S. withdrawal from the country. Faced with the possibility of escalating the already 20-year-long war, Biden obviously chose the latter option. All this comes as the Taliban now controls about two-thirds of Afghanistan , and there is little sign that the Afghan government can turn the tide. “We are probably experiencing the most massive, brutal and opportunistic military campaign of violence and terror, by the Taliban, in the history of our country,” Afghan Foreign Minister MOHAMMAD HANEEF ATMAR told an audience at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute early Wednesday. If anything, Kabul’s forces are in a state of turmoil as Ghani replaced Gen. WALI AHMADZAI with Gen. HIBATULLAH ALIZAI as his army chief of staff, Afghan government spokesperson MOHAMMAD AMIRI confirmed to NatSec Daily. The reason for the change was “to improve management in the Afghan National Security Forces,” Amiri said, adding that “sometimes changes improve the morale of soldiers and [the] Army.” Ahmadzai’s ouster comes as the Taliban has swept across northeast Afghanistan, though Amiri contends that “General Alizai has done his job well” — pointing to Afghan forces pushing back against militants in Lashkar Gah. Ghani had appointed Ahmadzai as army chief of staff amid escalating Taliban violence less than two months ago as part of a broader government shake-up that included new defense and interior ministers, per Reuters. Despite the dismal prognosis, don’t expect Biden to have a change of heart. If anything, he has steeled himself anew against sending U.S. troops back into the fray. “We spent over a trillion dollars over 20 years. We trained and equipped, with modern equipment, over 300,000 Afghan forces. And Afghan leaders have to come together. We lost thousands — lost to death and injury — thousands of American personnel,” Biden told reporters at the White House on Tuesday. “[T]hey’ve got to want to fight. They have outnumbered the Taliban.” “I do not regret my decision,” the commander in chief concluded. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Unrivaled.
The F-35 delivers the unrivaled advantage for our pilots, nation, and partners. A decisive differentiator in near-peer warfare, the F-35 is the most advanced node in 21st century warfare network-centric architecture. Learn More | | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — CPC DEMANDS LATE DOD REPORTS: Four leaders of the Congressional Progressive Caucus plan to send a letter to Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN on Thursday criticizing the Pentagon’s tardiness in turning over reports required by law. “We recognize that you inherited numerous institutional and international challenges, but this does not excuse DOD from fulfilling reporting requirements on time and in the manner prescribed by law,” reads the letter signed by Reps. KATIE PORTER (D-Calif.), PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.), ILHAN OMAR (D-Minn.) and BARBARA LEE (D-Calif.). “We seek an explanation for these delays, clarity on the DOD components that are responsible, and a briefing on steps DOD will take to improve reporting and accountability in the future.” The three documents the lawmakers are demanding the Pentagon deliver are an unclassified report on DoD greenhouse gas emissions that was due July 1; an unclassified report on “extremist recruiting, predatory marketing, and other cyber exploitation targeting service members and their families,” also due July 1; and an unclassified report “on policies and procedures for DOD to obtain information about possible human rights violations from DOD contractors,” due June 17. “While we believe there may be other missing reports, these three are of particular interest to our caucus and are presently interfering with our ability to draft legislation and conduct oversight,” the lawmakers wrote. They requested a briefing from Pentagon staff by Sept. 1 about how DoD can best comply with reporting requirements going forward. Porter told NatSec Daily why she felt this letter was needed now: "The Department of Defense is our largest federal agency — it must be accountable to the American people. Members of Congress have a duty to conduct oversight on our constituents' behalf, but we are hamstrung if the Pentagon continues to ignore its legal obligation to issue reports to Congress. We want answers.” | 
Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.). | Mario Tama/Getty Images | CHINA SENTENCES FIRST OF TWO DETAINED CANADIANS: A Chinese court has sentenced Canadian citizen MICHAEL SPAVOR to 11 years in prison after finding him guilty of “probing into and illegally providing state secrets” to foreign actors. Shortly afterward, Canadian Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU called Spavor’s sentencing "absolutely unacceptable and unjust." China’s arrests of Spavor and fellow Canadian MICHAEL KOVRIG on the same day in December 2018 are viewed by U.S. officials and experts as retaliation for Canada’s arrest of MENG WANZHOU , the CFO of Huawei Technologies. Kovrig also has been charged with espionage. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN demanded that both Spavor and Kovrig be released “immediately and unconditionally” in a statement Wednesday. “The practice of arbitrarily detaining individuals to exercise leverage over foreign governments is completely unacceptable. People should never be used as bargaining chips,” Blinken said. BIDEN’S DEMOCRACY SUMMIT ON THE BOOKS: Confirming NatSec Daily’s reporting from last week, the White House announced plans Wednesday for a virtual Summit for Democracy to take place Dec. 9-10 — followed by a second, in-person summit a year later, where world leaders will “gather once more to showcase progress made against their commitments.” The first, remote meeting in four months “will galvanize commitments and initiatives across three principal themes: defending against authoritarianism, fighting corruption, and promoting respect for human rights,” according to a White House news release. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to POLITICO’s newsletter on the national security politics roiling Washington. NatSec Daily is for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Please share this subscription link with a colleague or friend. Follow the whole team here: @alexbward, @QuintForgey, @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio, and @JonnyCustodio. IF YOU’RE MISSING MORNING DEFENSE, DON’T WORRY — WE’RE STILL HERE: Coming at Pro s bright and early every a.m., if you’re not getting Morning D, you’re missing out. Learn more about our best-in-class insider reporters and sign up here. Don’t let your competition be the first to act on industry scoops, breaking Pentagon news, the latest aerospace developments, defense acquisitions and influence plays. And while you’re there, hit subscribe on our brand new Space Beat Memo, a week-ahead look at everything astropolitics. | | | GERMANS ARREST SUSPECTED SPY FOR RUSSIA: Following investigations by German and British authorities, German prosecutors have detained a British citizen accused of spying for Russia since at least November while working as a local hire at the British embassy in Berlin, per KIRSTEN GRIESHABER of The Associated Press. The suspect allegedly shared documents he received at the embassy with the Russian intelligence service, according to prosecutors. | | | CHINESE GROUP SPIES ON ISRAEL: The cybersecurity firm FireEye reports that a Chinese spy group known as UNC215 has hacked into various Israeli entities since 2019 . While FireEye found no proof of a clear connection to the Chinese government, the firm notes the hackers’ targets usually “are of great interest to Beijing’s financial, diplomatic, and strategic objectives.” During the same espionage campaign — in which UNC215 took advantage of a Microsoft SharePoint vulnerability — the hackers also targeted entities in Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Kazakhstan. | | | |   | | | | | | COMMANDER SUGGESTS U.S.-CHINA ATOMIC TALKS: Maj. Gen. MICHAEL LUTTON — the commander of the 20th Air Force, which is responsible for maintaining and operating the Pentagon’s arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles — encouraged U.S. and Chinese military officials Tuesday to engage in a nuclear weapons “dialogue” that he argued would serve America’s strategic interests, per THERESA HITCHENS of Breaking Defense. “A dialogue allows us to communicate our national security or diplomatic objectives, and then to understand Chinese national security diplomatic objectives,” Lutton said at a virtual event hosted by The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. He added: “I think militarily, it’s beneficial from a strategic stability perspective to begin that dialogue.” AIR FORCE TESTS ICBM: Air Force Global Strike Command “launched an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile equipped with a test re-entry vehicle” from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California early Wednesday, per an AFGSC news release. The exercise was intended “to demonstrate the readiness of U.S. nuclear forces and provide confidence in the lethality and effectiveness of the nation’s nuclear deterrent.” | | | VETS AND DOGS: Thanks to Congress, some Very Good Boys and military veterans will soon be spending more time together. “The Senate on Friday passed the Puppies Assisting Wounded Servicemembers, or PAWS, for Veterans Therapy Act, which requires the Department of Veterans Affairs to create a pilot program for veterans with post-traumatic stress disorder to train service dogs. The bill also allows — but does not require — the VA to provide service dogs to vets with mental health conditions,” reports the PATRICIA KIME of Military Times . The bill is now on Biden’s desk for signature, as the measure passed the House in May. | | | EGYPT’S U.S. ENVOY ERUPTS: Egyptian Ambassador to the United States MOTAZ ZAHRAN pushed back against the possibility of the Biden administration withholding millions of dollars in military aid over Cairo’s human rights abuses. “I praise the tremendous support to bolster the bilateral relations between our two nations that I witness firsthand from the Biden administration as well as the overwhelming majority of Congressional members who stand firm in refusing to be deceived by lies and falsehoods propagated by people who belong to a terrorist organization with a known record in disseminating hatred and inciting to violence through consistent outright lies and delusional tactics,” he wrote in a tweetstorm. Rep. TOM MALINOWSKI (D-N.J.), one of the leading critics of Egypt’s regime, fired back: “Nothing conveys the entitled arrogance of Egypt’s dictatorship better than taking $1.3 billion a year in US taxpayers funds while accusing members of Congress concerned about human rights (including detention & torture of innocent Americans) of being deceived by ‘terrorists.’” MARCO LEAVES A MARK: For the most part, Republicans have refrained from fully bashing the Biden administration over the Afghanistan withdrawal. Those days are over. “What will happen to women,girls & Afghans that worked with us is tragic,” Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) tweeted today. “The real crisis for the U.S. isn’t a Taliban takeover[.] It’s the guaranteed return of Al Qaeda & Biden’s lack of any plan to deal with it[.]” | | | TEHRAN’S NEXT TOP DIPLOMAT: Iranian President EBRAHIM RAISI has tapped HOSSEIN AMIR-ABDOLLAHIAN, a hawkish envoy who previously served as deputy foreign minister for Arab and African affairs, to replace MOHAMMAD JAVAD ZARIF as the Islamic republic’s minister of foreign affairs. If approved by Iran’s parliament, “the 57-year-old Amirabdollahian, an anti-Western conservative considered close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as well as Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant movement, will steer Iran’s negotiating team once talks resume in Vienna over how to revive the 2015 nuclear deal,” per Bloomberg News’ GOLNAR MOTEVALLI. NATSEC NOMINEES CONFIRMED: The Senate approved a flurry of Biden’s nominees via voice vote early Wednesday, including a pair of picks for key posts at the Pentagon and Foggy Bottom: KEN SALAZAR as U.S. ambassador to Mexico and GIL CISNEROS as undersecretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness. Senators also rubber-stamped Army Lt. Gen. LAURA RICHARDSON to serve as the next head of U.S. Southern Command and become a four-star general — making her just the second woman to lead a military combatant command, per our own CONNOR O’BRIEN. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Unrivaled.
Information is the battlespace advantage. F-35 sensor fusion provides vast amounts of information to accelerate critical decisions and win the fight. Learn More | | | | | | MONA CHAREN, The Bulwark: “What Orbán’s Apologists Reveal About Themselves” JEANNE BOURGAULT and AHMED RASHID, The New York Times: “ The West’s Best Allies for 20 Years Are in Grave Danger” DAVID IGNATIUS, The Washington Post: “An undeclared war is breaking out in cyberspace. The Biden administration is fighting back.” | | | — Common Defense, 1 p.m.: The progressive veterans organization hosts “Vets for Democracy,” a virtual rally for voting rights featuring Sens. JON TESTER (D-Mont.) and SHERROD BROWN (D-Ohio). Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
