The inside story of how Biden’s team handled Afghanistan’s collapse

By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey

President Joe Biden speaks about the evacuation of American citizens, SIV applicants and vulnerable Afghans in the East Room of the White House, Friday, Aug. 20, 2021. From left, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Vice President Kamala Harris, Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan. | Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP Photo

With help from Oriana Pawlyk, Daniel Lippman and Lara Seligman

Welcome to National Security Daily , POLITICO’s newsletter on the global events roiling Washington and keeping the administration up at night. I’m Alex Ward, your guide to what’s happening inside the Pentagon, the NSC and D.C.’s foreign policy machine. National Security Daily arrives in your inbox Monday through Friday by 4 p.m.; subscribe here.

Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com. Follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey.

By the morning of Wednesday, Aug. 11, the Afghan government’s already brittle control of the war-torn country was quickly unraveling in the face of a swift Taliban offensive coinciding with the nearly complete withdrawal of U.S. troops that President JOE BIDEN ordered in April.

Most of America’s top diplomats and generals were still operating under the assumption that they had ample time to prepare for a Taliban takeover of the country — it might even be a couple of years until the group was in a position to regain power, many thought. Though some military officials and intelligence agencies had stepped up their warnings about the possibility of a government collapse, officials felt confident about the Afghan security forces’ strategy of consolidating in the cities to defend the urban population centers.

The president and his top aides still had one more meeting scheduled for Wednesday evening — a pre-planned session on a classified national security matter. As word of the deteriorating situation flowed into the Oval Office that morning, Biden ordered that the early evening meeting should focus on Afghanistan.

Sitting in the Situation Room were Vice President KAMALA HARRIS; Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN ; Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY; Joint Chiefs Vice Chair Gen. JOHN HYTEN; National Security Adviser JAKE SULLIVAN and his deputy JON FINER; Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES; chief of staff RON KLAIN ; Deputy CIA Director DAVID COHEN; LIZ SHERWOOD RANDALL, the president’s homeland security adviser; and other White House and national security staff. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN participated by phone.

Events were growing so dire that the president ordered Austin and Milley to prepare a plan for deploying additional troops to the region, where they would reinforce those put on standby months earlier to evacuate American personnel.

Biden also directed the State Department to expand the evacuation of Afghan allies — those who had worked with the Americans and were now in mortal danger — to include the use of military aircraft, not just chartered civilian planes.

And he also asked his intelligence officials to prepare an up-to-date assessment on the situation in Afghanistan by the following morning. After the meeting broke up, a classified email was sent to pertinent staffers to convene at 7:30 a.m. the next day. The email went out so late that the Situation Room staff also started calling those aides to make sure they would be on time.

That Thursday morning, Sullivan was in the Situation Room with other White House staff while Cabinet members participated via secure hookups.

The principals meeting kicked off with an intelligence briefing concluding that the situation was so “fluid” that the Afghan government’s seat of power in Kabul could fall “within weeks or days,” an official noted.

Austin recommended that Biden send in troops to evacuate the embassy and protect the main international airport in Kabul. Sullivan asked each Cabinet member in the meeting to weigh in. They unanimously agreed.

That was the “Oh, shit” moment, said a U.S. official. It was now officially a crisis.

Sullivan walked into the Oval Office just before 10 a.m. to report to the president. Biden picked up the phone and told Austin to send troops to Kabul’s airport.

Read POLITICO’s full tick-tock on how the Biden administration handled the collapse of Afghanistan, featuring Alex’s reporting, here.

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FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — AUSTIN DECLINED MILLER MEETING INVITE: Per our own DANIEL LIPPMAN and LARA SELIGMAN, in early December, outgoing acting Defense Secretary CHRIS MILLER sent a text message to his would-be successor, Lloyd Austin, congratulating him on his selection as the incoming president’s Pentagon chief and offering to meet to discuss the handover, according to three former officials with knowledge of the exchange. In response, Austin texted Miller “thanks,” but did not follow up about arranging a meeting.

Austin had chosen to do all of his transition planning remotely due to Covid-19 concerns, a transition official told POLITICO at the time. Austin and Miller also didn’t talk on the phone during the entire transition, according to two people familiar with the matter.

In contrast with Austin, former Secretary of State MIKE POMPEO and Biden Secretary of State Antony Blinken held one face-to-face meeting in which Afghanistan was touched upon, according to a person close to Pompeo. And ROBERT O’BRIEN, Trump’s last national security adviser, held more than half a dozen calls or in-person meetings with his successor, Jake Sullivan, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The lack of a meeting between the two top Defense officials was part of a historically contentious transition between administrations which hurt the ability of the Biden administration to hit the ground running when it took charge on Jan. 20 — including on how to make sure Afghanistan didn’t fall apart. Trump officials, though, point out that Biden’s team had seven months to avoid the current catastrophe.

“You can’t claim the Trump administration did not have a plan for the continued withdrawal from Afghanistan when Austin and senior members of his transition team flat out refused to meet with the departing acting secretary of Defense,” said one of the former officials.

Miller declined to comment. Pentagon spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said: “We are not going to detail private conversations the secretary may have had during the transition, a transition for which the outgoing administration did little to make successful.”

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — NEW POLL SHOWS SUPPORT FOR AFGHANISTAN WITHDRAWAL: A majority of Americans still favor withdrawal from Afghanistan, even as chaos reigns in Kabul, according to a new survey.

The poll — commissioned by the right-leaning, pro-restraint Concerned Veterans for America but conducted by YouGov — shows a combined 60 percent of respondents either “strongly support” or “somewhat support” the pullout, while 22 percent either “somewhat oppose” or “strongly oppose” Biden’s decision.

Meanwhile, 20 percent “somewhat oppose” a decision to redeploy U.S. troops to Afghanistan, while 27 percent “strongly oppose” that idea — a total of 47 percent of American citizens. Only a combined 29 percent would favor a renewed intervention, with 24 percent “not sure.”

YouGov polled 1,118 Americans between Aug. 17-19, dates that came after Kabul fell and problems at the airport were already well documented.

“I think this poll and other ones conducted recently show that there is not an emerging constituency for continuing our endless wars abroad,” said DAN CALDWELL, a senior adviser at CVA. “It would be a mistake at this moment for elected officials to assume the political winds are significantly shifting in the long-run around intervention abroad.”

' ANY AMERICAN WHO WANTS TO COME HOME, WE WILL GET YOU HOME': That’s the takeaway from Biden’s address on the evacuation effort Friday. He also committed to relocate Afghan special immigrant visa applicants who served alongside the U.S. government during the war.

It was a far different tone from Biden, who in recent days definitely stood by his withdrawal decision and insisted there was always going to be chaos during a pullout. This time, Biden was more conciliatory in his messaging and empathetic toward the thousands in limbo during the large-scale evacuation effort.

NOW ARRIVING IN GERMANY: An U.S. military official tells our own PAUL MCLEARY that flights from Afghanistan will soon be landing at America’s Ramstein Air Base in Deutschland. “We are supporting through a variety of means,” the official said, “mainly through logistics and accommodations to house personnel and our pilots flying evacuees to Ramstein.” That means the administration is expanding the number of destinations evacuees can be transported to as they escape Kabul.

EVACUATION FLIGHTS NOW GUARANTEED FREE: NatSec Daily caused a bit of a stir Thursday after reporting that Americans boarding repatriation flights had to sign promissory notes to pay roughly $2,000 for the ride. While the administration had signaled that flights might not be free of charge and U.S. law requires such assistance be provided “on a reimbursable basis to the maximum extent practicable,” officials also vowed no evacuee would pay a cent.

After our report, State Department spokesperson NED PRICE emailed NatSec Daily to say: “In these unique circumstances, we have no intention of seeking any reimbursement from those fleeing Afghanistan.” When we followed up and asked if State would stop asking evacuees to sign promissory notes, he replied with a one-word answer: “Yes.”

Just one problem: Reports indicate flights out of Kabul’s airport have temporarily stopped due to processing delays both at the al-Udeid base in Qatar and at Hamid Karzai International Airport, itself.

NO GUIDANCE AT KABUL AIRPORT: A NatSec Daily tipster sent in a recording of his Thursday call with the State Department’s Afghanistan Task Force in which an official says there’s “unfortunately not” a designated person at Kabul’s airport to help Americans and others board an evacuation flight.

This tipster was calling on behalf of a U.S.-funded organization — he didn’t want the name revealed for security reasons — that was struggling for days to get past the perimeter.

The State Department official, who didn’t give out her name, replied that “it’s a very long wait, and we ask people to be patient.” The tipster asked if “there’s any guidance on what they should do” as the hopeful passengers waited, and a full four seconds passed before the official tersely replied: “No.”

The U.S.-funded employees didn’t get in and returned home because they “couldn’t wait there any longer with no supplies and no direction,” the tipster told NatSec Daily.

A State Department spokesperson we relayed these events to said: “Levels of congestion at the airport have been high, and Embassy staff and DoD personnel are unable to retrieve specific individuals from the crowd. Again, we are committed to doing everything we can, as quickly as we can.”

The spokesperson also reminded NatSec Daily of numbers U.S. citizens can call in case of emergency: +1-888-407-4747 (U.S./ Canada) or +1-202-501-4444 (overseas).

DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we’re going to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene likes to unwind with a drink.

Today, we have Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. When approached to reveal his favorite libation and location, the lawmaker prefaced: “In absolutely no way am I self conscious about this answer. I stand by this 100 percent.”

And then, the reveal: “Drink: Tito’s and Red Bull. Where: My front yard.”

NatSec Daily was already aware of Murphy’s taste for Moscow mules , making the senator’s answer quite a surprise. We wonder if he’s drinking a few more Tito’s and Red Bulls as his (and Alex’s) beloved Red Sox slump.

Want to share your favorite happy hour spot or late night boozer? Drop us a line at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com. (For full transparency, Alex enjoys Moscow mules and can usually be found at Wonderland Ballroom or American Ice Company; Quint will be swilling dirty martinis or Negronis at Beuchert’s Saloon.)

IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to POLITICO’s newsletter on the national security politics roiling Washington. NatSec Daily is for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Please share this subscription link with a colleague or friend. Follow the whole team here: @alexbward, @QuintForgey, @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JonnyCustodio.

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TALIBAN WEAPONS SEIZURE SPARKS CONCERN: International experts are worried the massive arsenal of American-made weapons and equipment left behind in Afghanistan — much of which has been taken by the Taliban — might result in a regional arms bazaar that could be a boon to terrorist groups and insurgents, per our own McLeary and LEE HUDSON.

The stockpile includes billions of dollars worth of small arms, Humvees, pickup trucks, aircraft and drones that “will probably circulate in the region for many decades to come,” said NILS DUQUET, Flemish Peace Institute interim director. “At the moment, they’re very instrumental [because] if you want to control territory, you need small arms.”

“I have full confidence that some of this equipment is going to end up in the hands of al Qaeda and other bad actors, it’s inevitable,” added COLIN CLARKE, director of policy and research at The Soufan Group. “This is not going to just end with the Taliban.”

NEW SANCTIONS SIGNAL BIDEN’S HARDLINE STANCE TOWARD HAVANA: When it comes to Cuba, the president’s foreign policy moves continue to look a lot more like those of DONALD TRUMP than BARACK OBAMA, per our own SABRINA RODRIGUEZ and MARC CAPUTO.

The latest sign was Homeland Security Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS ’ trip to Miami on Thursday, where he promoted the administration’s fourth round of sanctions on Cuban regime officials involved in the crackdown following the historic anti-government protests on the island this summer.

The new economic penalties are not expected to be the administration’s last. Ahead of a White House meeting with prominent Cuban Americans last month, Biden said there are more sanctions to come, “unless there’s some drastic change in Cuba, which I don’t anticipate.”

But beyond sanctions, the administration is still largely crafting its Cuba policy, which U.S. officials say is focused on ensuring Cubans have access to the internet; restaffing the U.S. embassy to resume consular services on the island; and allowing Cubans to receive remittances without the Cuban regime taking a cut.

DON'T RECOGNIZE THE TALIBAN: Our own RYAN HEATH reports that the U.S. and its allies are already planning not to recognize the Taliban formally as the leaders of Afghanistan . "The U.S government believes the Taliban wants international recognition, but the message from Washington and other democratic governments is: we don’t trust you — so show us you’re worth it," he wrote. "While G-7 governments insist there is no formal request yet to recognize the Taliban’s grip on Afghanistan, preliminary conversations are underway, focused on ensuring allies and neighboring countries, including Pakistan, hold off from bilateral recognition of the insurgent group."

SOCIAL MEDIA GIANTS SCRAMBLE TO PROTECT AFGHAN ACCOUNTS: Facebook and other prominent social media platforms are moving to protect users as Afghanistan collapses, per CyberScoop’s TONYA RILEY . “Facebook rolled out a one-click tool Thursday that will allow users in Afghanistan to lock down their profiles in response to fears that the accounts could be used by the Taliban to target individuals,” Riley reported.

“The measures include preventing user information from being downloaded or seen by anyone who is not friends with the user, as well as removing the search feature from friends lists. The company is also rolling out pop-up alerts on Instagram to help users in Afghanistan protect their accounts.”

PENTAGON MOUNTS HAITI RESPONSE: The United States has dispatched USS Arlington from Naval Station Norfolk, Va., to help Haiti recover from the 7.2-magnitude earthquake that struck the island nation last weekend, per our own JONATHAN CUSTODIO . The transport dock ship is carrying a fleet surgical team, 200 marines, two helicopters and a landing craft unit.

U.S. Southern Command’s Joint Task Force-Haiti planned to deliver a field surgical hospital to the southern city of Les Cayes on Thursday, and the Pentagon said four field hospitals were expected to be set up this week. Since Saturday, the United States also has deployed three Coast Guard helicopters and three Coast Guard cutters to Haiti, as well as eight military helicopters from Joint Task Force-Bravo in Honduras.

HASC DEM CALLS FOR MORE SECURE CAPITOL: After a North Carolina man in his truck lied that he had explosives and caused an hourslong standoff outside the Library of Congress, some rumblings have surfaced on Capitol Hill about further safeguarding the area.

“I believe that the Capitol complex needs to have sufficient physical security measures, as well as a fully staffed Capitol Police force. Just as the White House implemented restrictions on public access after 9/11, I do believe that the Capitol complex needs to consider whether to further restrict public access in the wake of the Jan. 6 insurrection,” Rep. ANTHONY BROWN (D-Md.), a House Armed Services Committee member and veteran, told NatSec Daily.

“I fully understand that the Capitol is the people’s house,” Brown added, “but I’m concerned that members and staff and visitors could be better secured.”

FORMER FOREIGN MINISTERS MAKE APPEAL FOR AT-RISK AFGHANS: A group of nearly two dozen former foreign ministers, including former Secretary of State MADELEINE ALBRIGHT, are urging world leaders “to act together with purpose and urgency” to evacuate Afghan allies “and avert a broader humanitarian catastrophe” in Afghanistan.

“[W]e have watched the rapidly deteriorating situation there with utmost concern,” they said in their joint statement — released by the Aspen Ministers Forum, which Albright founded in 2003.

Specifically, the former diplomats demanded that the American-led evacuation operation at Hamid Karzai International Airport “must be significantly expanded and continue until all foreign nationals and vulnerable Afghans are successfully airlifted out of the country.”

They also said there is “an urgent need for more countries to commit to hosting our Afghan allies, with some places acting as temporary transit sites and others accepting refugees on a permanent basis through the resettlement process.”

MEDIA MOVES: ALEXIS AKWAGYIRAM announced he has joined the digital desk of The Financial Times after having been the Nigeria bureau chief for Reuters.

The Economist: “From Saigon to Kabul: what America’s Afghan fiasco means for the world”

The New Yorker: “ DAVID PETRAEUS on American Mistakes in Afghanistan”

The Nation: “Afghan Women and Girls Are Caught in the Cross Fire”

Be a Policy Pro. POLITICO Pro has a free policy resource center filled with our best practices on building relationships with state and federal representatives, demonstrating ROI, and influencing policy through digital storytelling. Read our free guides today .

— The first full day of VP Harris’ trip to Southeast Asia: In Singapore, Harris will meet with government officials; have a call with President HALIMAH YACOB; have a bilateral meeting and news conference with Prime Minister LEE HSIEN LOONG ; and visit Changi Naval Base, where she will give remarks to U.S. sailors on the USS Tulsa.

— The Aspen Institute: “Program on the World Economy: 2021 annual convening”

— The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 10 a.m.: “ Nuclear Deterrence & Missile Defense Forum”

— The Middle East Institute, 10:30 a.m.: “Afghanistan’s Collapse & the Implications for Global Jihadism and Counterterrorism”

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

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