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Presented by Lockheed Martin: From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | Presented by Lockheed Martin | | 
Military vehicles carrying DF-26 ballistic missiles drive past the Tiananmen Gate during a military parade. | Andy Wong/Getty Images | With help from Andrew Desiderio and Daniel Lippman Welcome to National Security Daily, your guide to the global events roiling Washington and keeping the administration up at night. Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint BREAKING: The State Department Inspector General is opening up investigation into the agency's handling of the Afghanistan evacuation, per a memo sent to Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN obtained by POLITICO. The IG will look into the Afghanistan Special Immigrant Visa program, how Afghans were processed for refugee admission into the United States, the resettlement of Afghan refugees and visa recipients, and the Kabul Embassy's emergency planning, "to include evacuation of U.S. citizens and Afghan nationals," the memo reads. It's unclear if IGs at other agencies, namely the Pentagon, will follow suit, though it's certainly possible. Last month, NatSec Daily reported that State's IG was "considering" looking into the SIV program. ALSO BREAKING: ZALMAY KHALILZAD, the U.S. special envoy for Afghanistan, is likely to resign in the coming hours, our own LARA SELIGMAN confirmed after CNN's scoop. Khalilzad's ouster was long expected after his yearslong efforts to broker a deal between the Taliban and Afghan government failed. AND NOW, ABOUT THAT CHINA MISSILE: What’s in a name? That which we call a Chinese fractional orbital bombardment system by any other name would be as eye-popping. The Financial Times’ DEMETRI SEVASTOPULO and KATHERIN HILLE set the worldwide national security community atwitter Saturday with the revelation that China tested a nuclear-capable missile in August. A rocket reportedly carried a hypersonic glide vehicle into low-orbit before it circumnavigated the globe — and all of this to America’s surprise. China suspiciously didn’t reveal this launch, the 77th of its kind, after it detailed the one before and the one after. That might be because what Beijing sent into space was a FOB, which allows a nation to hit a target with a nuclear weapon via a low-trajectory and low-visibility route. Beyond the speed and the trajectory, what also concerns the Pentagon is that it’s presumed the glide vehicle is maneuverable, meaning that it could evade traditional missile defenses as it screams back toward Earth. The Chinese government denied the FT’s report Monday, with Foreign Ministry Spokesperson ZHAO LIJIAN saying what Beijing tested was “not a missile, but a space vehicle ,” and that it flew in July, not August. “As we understand, this was a routine test of space vehicle to verify technology of spacecraft’s reusability,” he added. “It is of great significance to reducing the cost of using space vehicle and providing a convenient and cheap way for mankind's two-way transportation in the peaceful use of space. Several companies around the world have conducted similar tests.” This has launched (pun intended) two separate debates, as far as NatSec Daily can track. The first is whether or not to believe China’s denial. JAMES ACTON, who co-directs the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told NatSec Daily there are three possibilities here — “all of which seem plausible.” The simplest answer is China is lying: It has now successfully tested this provocative weapon but wants to keep it a mystery. Second, the denial is truthful and Beijing really was testing a space plane. The trajectory is similar enough that U.S. officials — including the ones that spoke to the FT — may have mistaken it for a FOB. Then there’s the Goldilocks option, where the Chinese test featured both military and civilian applications, which means the regime is sorta-kinda not telling the truth. The second debate gets to the heart of that matter: Is the supposed FOB a BFD? Sen. JIM INHOFE of Oklahoma, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, definitely thinks so. “China’s test of a nuclear-capable hypersonic glide vehicle is one more milestone in China’s military modernization — designed to intimidate and bully the West. This is just the latest in a string of high-profile revelations about China’s rapidly growing nuclear arsenal,” he wrote on Facebook. But others, most notably those in favor of arms control, say that China’s potentially new missile isn’t a game changer. The country already has a lot of missiles that can hit the American homeland with nukes and is quickly acquiring more, they note. That view was reinforced today by Adm. CHARLES RICHARD , the head of U.S. Strategic Command. The “breathtaking expansion of strategic and nuclear capabilities” now means “China can now execute any possible nuclear employment strategy,” he told Stars and Stripes’ JOHN VANDIVER. However, China — like most nuclear-capable states — views its capabilities pessimistically, and is always looking to improve technologies to stay one step ahead of new defenses . That’s understandably concerning, but it’s also a feature and not a bug of American strategy. “One reason why the U.S. pursues counterforce and missile defense capabilities is precisely to force adversaries to invest a lot of time and resources to develop crazy experimental systems,” MIT nuclear expert VIPIN NARANG tweeted yesterday. The question now is a common one in Washington: What did the U.S. know and when did it know it? Was the Biden administration truly caught by surprise by this test? Is the assessment of Chinese capabilities as presented to the FT by unnamed officials wrong? It would be good to have those answers. INTRODUCING THE NATSEC DAILY RUN CLUB: We’re building a virtual run club around this newsletter’s community. Tweet about your runs at #WeRunNatSec, and we’ll do our best to feature your progress in upcoming editions! Tell us about all your runs, even the bad ones — the point is to get out there, and we encourage everyone from beginners to life-long runners to join. The University of Denver’s wicked fast HILARY MATFESS graciously agreed to join us as co-lead, so follow her @HilaryMatfess while she pounds the pavement. (And who knows: Maybe down the line we meet for an occasional group run.) Alex will get us started: He’s running in the James W. Foley Freedom Run for Team POLITICO this Saturday, so please donate generously — the goal is to raise $1,000! — and follow his progress throughout the week. He’s aiming for a sub-30 5k time, but his latest run (after a friend’s wedding weekend) clocked in at 33:46. Room for improvement. How’d YOUR last run go? Tell us on Twitter at #WeRunNatSec! | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Keeping America competitive.
The F-35 represents the best of American ingenuity. An economic and innovation engine strengthening America’s communities through leading edge manufacturing and engineering. More than half of U.S. based F-35 suppliers are small businesses. Learn More | | | | | | RIP, MR. SECRETARY: COLIN POWELL, an accomplished and esteemed four-star general who became the first African American secretary of State, died Monday as a result of complications from Covid-19, according to his family. He was 84. Powell was fully vaccinated against Covid-19, his family said in a statement posted to Facebook. With his death, the former soldier and statesman becomes perhaps the most high-profile American public figure to succumb to a so-called breakthrough infection of the novel coronavirus. Powell was also the nation’s first African American national security adviser and the first African American chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, as well as the youngest person to serve in the latter post. Described frequently as the most popular American general since DWIGHT EISENHOWER, Powell was often mentioned as a possible candidate for president, but he never elected to run. For better or worse, Powell’s years in the public eye were largely bracketed by wars with Iraq. The first war, in 1991, was a successful effort under President GEORGE H.W. BUSH to liberate Kuwait from Iraq — America’s clearest military victory since the quagmire that was the Vietnam War. The second, launched in 2003, was an effort under the younger Bush to prevent Saddam Hussein’s government from using nuclear weapons, a war that tarnished Powell and other American leaders when it became clear those weapons did not exist. “I am mostly mad at myself for not having smelled the problem,” Powell wrote in “It Worked For Me: In Life and Leadership,” his 2012 book. “My instincts failed me.” For more on Powell, read POLITICO’s obituary (co-written by Quint). FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– BIPARTISAN RES TO STOP ISIS IN MOZAMBIQUE: A new resolution with strong bipartisan support will call for the U.S. to back Mozambique’s government while it suffers attacks from the local ISIS franchise. The measure, introduced by Rep. SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.), will have lawmakers “[c]alling for stability and the cessation of violence and condemning ISIS-affiliated terrorist activity in northern Mozambique, including the Cabo Delgado Province, and for other purposes.” The bill mainly calls on the Mozambique government to do more to stop the violence. But there’s a section in which Jacobs et al. urge “the United States Government and other donor governments to appropriately coordinate diplomatic, defense, and development resources and continue to expand, where possible, efforts to provide humanitarian assistance, promote good governance, spur economic growth, and build the capacity of the Government of Mozambique to counter terrorism and violent extremism and address conflict through existing programs … while ensuring respect for human rights and protection of civilians.” As of now Jacobs’ resolution has nine co-sponsors, including the top two House Foreign Affairs Committee members, Chair GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.) and ranking member MICHAEL MCCAUL (R-Texas), and the co-leads are Reps. YOUNG KIM (R-Calif.) and KAREN BASS (D-Calif.). “It is time the United States and international community coordinate to address this dire humanitarian situation in a comprehensive manner with respect for human rights and protection of civilians to prevent further loss of life,” Jacobs told NatSec Daily. ABDUCTION IN HAITI: Seventeen people associated with an American missionary group — including children — were kidnapped by a gang in Haiti . The Ohio-based Christian Aid Ministries said the group was returning Saturday from building an orphanage. U.S. officials are currently working to secure their release, but there’s no information on when that might happen. The mass abduction is part of a growing trend in the Caribbean nation, especially after the assassination of Haitian President JOVENEL MOÏSE and a 7.2-magnitude earthquake devastated the country. “At least 328 kidnapping victims were reported to Haiti’s National Police in the first eight months of 2021, compared with a total of 234 for all of 2020, according to a report issued last month by the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti known as BINUH,” the Associated Press noted. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey . While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JonnyCustodio. | | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down and who really has the president's ear in West Wing Playbook, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | TURKEY MAY BUY RUSSIAN WARPLANES: Turkey’s temper tantrum against the U.S. continues after defense industry chief ISMAIL DEMIR said Ankara would purchase Russian warplanes if the Biden administration won’t sell it F-16. "If the United States does not approve a deal on the F-16s after the situation with F-35 aircraft, Turkey won’t be left without alternatives. The issue of Su-35 and Su-57 planes may surface again at any time," Demir told Turkish NTV television. If that happens, the yawning gap between the two NATO allies will grow wider. Ankara already has purchased Russia’s S-400 anti-aircraft missile system, which the U.S. and its NATO partners say is dangerous to the alliance. Acquiring more Russian equipment — fighter jets, no less — won’t help such perceptions. RUSSIA TO END NATO MISSION: As if tensions within NATO weren’t enough, Russia made matters worse by announcing its mission to the political-military group will shutter on Nov. 1. The decision, announced today by Russian Foreign Minister SERGEI LAVROV, comes after NATO expelled eight members of Russia’s delegation because they were “undeclared Russian intelligence officers.” The swift departure of the remaining diplomats, then, seems like a retaliation. "If NATO members have any urgent matters, they can contact our ambassador in Belgium on these questions," Lavrov told reporters. The worry now is that already-low West-Russia ties will plunge further after this move. "It's more than just regrettable, this decision taken in Moscow," German Foreign Minister HEIKO MAAS said today. "It will seriously damage the relationship." | | | CISA OFFICIAL SOUNDS NEW MALWARE WARNINGS: BRANDON WALES, executive director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, warned today that America’s adversaries “are investing significantly in tools to target our networks,” per CyberScoop’s TIM STARKS. Speaking at Scoop News Group’s CyberWeek event, Wales also said U.S. officials were continuing to observe “a democratization of malicious cyber capabilities,” adding that “hacking tools can be purchased for use by any criminal, regardless of expertise, or even rented to provide as a service capability.” Taken together, “[w]hat we are actually seeing is the intersection of two concerning trends,” Wales said. “Nation-state actors are expanding their capabilities. Full access to off-the-shelf cyber intrusion capabilities are now readily available.” Wales’ remarks came as Sinclair Broadcast Group, the conservative-leaning telecommunications conglomerate that operates almost 200 TV stations across the country, revealed today that it was targeted in a ransomware attack over the weekend. | | | NDAA’S SHORT RUNWAY: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) note that lawmakers have little time to get the annual defense-policy authorization bill across the finish line. “SASC Chair JACK REED has said the NDAA is ready for debate and votes on the floor, but it's unclear how soon the Senate will take up the measure. And time is running short with the Senate scheduled to be in session for only six weeks for the rest of the year,” they report. Reed believes the Senate and House versions of the bill can be reconciled, but … “Senate leaders may find a window in the coming days to hold an NDAA debate, but the defense bill and a final conference report will face competition for floor time. In addition to confirming more of President Joe Biden's nominees, the Senate may set aside time to debate a multitrillion-dollar social spending package being crafted by congressional Democrats and the White House,” Morning D notes. “A final NDAA could also face competition for floor time in December, when Congress will have to avoid another government shutdown and expiration of the debt ceiling.” | | | |   | | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– BURMA ACT TO GET MARKUP: Legislation condemning the coup in Myanmar will get a markup in HFAC this week, a congressional aide told NatSec Daily. The “Burma Unified through Rigorous Military Accountability Act of 2021” — or BURMA Act — was introduced earlier this month by Meeks, Rep. STEVE CHABOT (R-Ohio) and Sen. BEN CARDIN (D-Md.). If passed, a new release says the bill will mandate “targeted sanctions against the Burmese military, the State Administrative Council, as well as their affiliated entities and conglomerates” to hold “accountable those responsible for the perpetration of the coup and the ensuing atrocities that have claimed over a thousand lives.” The measure will also authorize “support for civil society and humanitarian assistance and calls on the State Department to issue a genocide determination for the persecution of the Rohingya.” “Since the coup in Burma eight months ago, over a thousand brave and innocent people have lost their lives and thousands more have been displaced as a result of the Burmese military’s brutality. The Burmese military has been given time to change course, but they will not heed words, only action. That is why the Committee on Foreign Affairs will markup the bipartisan bill, the BURMA Act, this week to apply real pressure on the military junta," a HFAC Democratic aide told NatSec Daily. "This bill aims to bring the military to the negotiating table through additional sanctions, import controls, and greater diplomatic pressure. It is critical that the United States support the Burmese people in their struggle for democracy and cut off the revenue sources for the brutal military.” CONGRESS FORCES PENTAGON PAYOUT TO CONTRACTORS: The four congressional Appropriations and Armed Services committees are insisting the Defense Department spend $1 billion that Pentagon officials say they don’t need, including $500 million worth of various vehicles and weapons built by four of the department’s top five private contractors, per CQ Roll Call’s JOHN M. DONNELLY. And although the lawmaker’s decision to deny the Defense Department’s request for a reprioritization of funding — instead forcing the department to pay hundreds of millions of dollars to the powerful contractors — might be justified, taxpayers may never know why the Pentagon was rebuffed. “While the reprogramming documents are regularly made public, the rationales behind them are not explained,” Donnelly writes. “Nearly half of the funding that Congress blocked from being diverted in the latest request was for initiatives of its top defense contractors — companies that provide jobs and spend on campaign contributions and lobbyists. This begs the question of how much politics, not national security, influences the committees’ decisions.” | | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | POLAND TO EU: BACK OFF: The European Union is upset a top Polish court ruled that local laws outweigh some EU laws — thereby undermining the bloc’s legal primacy. As punishment, the EU is slow-walking billions of euros in grants and loans for Poland as it recovers from the effects of Covid-19. After all this, Warsaw is both trying to reassure Brussels it remains committed to the EU and aiming to get the body to stand down. “We’re not giving in to any blackmail,” JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI, Poland’s de facto leader, said today in an interview with a pro-government outlet. That message came right after Polish Prime Minister MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI sent a letter to fellow EU leaders asking them to be “open to dialogue.” “I wish to reassure you that Poland remains a loyal member of the European Union. A European Union that is an organization based on common Treaties, established by all Member States which have entrusted a number of competences to common institutions and have jointly regulated many areas of life through European law. Poland respects this law and recognizes its primacy over national laws, pursuant to all our obligations under the Treaty on European Union,” he further wrote. | | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: CHRIS MOLINO is now mission development lead for Vannevar Labs, a national security-focused tech company based in Silicon Valley. He most recently was a lieutenant colonel in the special operations command of the U.S. Army, for which he served almost 20 years, including a stint at the NSC as a director for counterterrorism from 2017-2019. — TIMOTHY J. MCBRIDE has been appointed president of ST Engineering North America Inc. in Alexandria, Va. — the U.S. headquarters of ST Engineering, a global technology, defense and engineering group. McBride most recently was senior vice president of global government relations at Raytheon Technologies. He previously served as senior vice president of government relations for United Technologies. — MICHELE DUNNE is leaving her post as Middle East Program director at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace to become a nonresident scholar at the international affairs think tank. | | | — JULIA AINSLEY, NBC News: “Biden admin to build intelligence-gathering cell to track groups of migrants headed north” — JOEL ROSE, NPR: “ She barely made it out of Kabul. Now she’s welcoming Afghans with a familiar meal.” — ALEX RONDOS and MARK MEDISH, POLITICO Magazine: “Opinion: Ethiopia Is Plunging Into Chaos. It's Time for a New Dayton Peace Process.” | | | — The National Defense Industrial Association, 8 a.m.: “Precision Strike Technology Symposium — with JOSEPH COBLISH, HEATH A. COLLINS, EMILY DOUCETTE, RICHARD GENSLEY, ADAM JOHNSTON and more” — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9 a.m.: “Digital Repression: Confronting the Evolving Challenge — with ARINDRAJIT BASU, IRENE POETRANTO and JAN RYDZAK” — The National Press Club, 9 a.m.: “ News Conference: The Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon (UAP) and Nuclear Weapons — Witness Testimonies” — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9:30 a.m.: “South Korea’s Quest for Deeper Partnerships in Southeast Asia and India — with KATHRYN BOTTO, WONGI CHOE, CHIEW-PING HOO, JAGANNATH PANDA and ANDREW YEO” — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Nominations — with ALEXANDRA BAKER, DOUGLAS BUSH, JOHN COFFEY and NICKOLAS GUERTIN” — Defense One, 10 a.m.: “Network Modernization Summit 2021 — with SANJAY GUPTA, DAVE HINCHMAN, JOSEPH MATOS III, KATIE OLSON, PATRICK TUCKER and more” — The Foreign Policy Institute, 10 a.m.: “ Book Talk With ALEXANDER VINDMAN — with KENT E. CALDER” — The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: “Lethality and the Future of U.S. Military Strategy — with BRYAN CLARK, DAVID GROSSMAN and DAVID ROBERTS” — The Center for a New American Security, 12:15 p.m.: “Fireside Chat with General Sir NICHOLAS CARTER, U.K. Chief of the Defence Staff — with STACIE PETTYJOHN” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 p.m.: “Book Launch: The Digital Silk Road — with BETHANY ALLEN-EBRAHIMIAN, JONATHAN E. HILLMAN and MATTHEW P. GOODMAN” — The American Enterprise Institute, 2 p.m.: “Does the U.S. need a national cybersecurity strategy? — with JAMES X. DEMPSEY, JAMES ANDREW LEWIS, SUJIT RAMAN, DIANE RINALDO and SHANE TEWS” — Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, 2:30 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Coast Guard Oversight — with KARL SCHULTZ and JASON VANDERHADEN” — The Wilson Center, 3 p.m.: “ Hindsight Up Front: U.S. Policy Priorities in Afghanistan — with JAMES CUNNINGHAM, MICHAEL KUGELMAN, RONALD NEUMANN, ANNIE PFORZHEIMER, ROBIN RAPHEL and EARL ANTHONY WAYNE” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who always makes it clear when he’s going nuclear. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Keeping America competitive.
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