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Presented by Lockheed Martin: From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | Presented by Lockheed Martin | With help from Connor O’Brien, Nahal Toosi and Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– The State Department is about to roll out a new way for low- and mid-level staffers to get their policy suggestions and views up to the highest levels: a “policy ideas channel.” Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN conceived of the idea early in his tenure, telling his staff he wanted one created so the best policy ideas wouldn’t get stuck in the agency’s large bureaucracy. Should an aide’s policy suggestion not filter upward, that person can send an email to a dedicated address explaining the idea, the efforts already taken to have it adopted, and why the decision was made to use the channel. Then, top staffers in State’s Policy Planning unit will look it over and decide whether or not it makes sense to put the idea into action. This process, described to NatSec Daily by a senior State Department official on the condition of anonymity, isn’t meant to supplant the normal policy process inside the agency. The goal is to ensure all the best ideas are considered by State’s bigwigs, no matter who came up with it. “The secretary believes that a strong department depends on a culture of trust, one that fosters open debate and constructive dissent, and it depends on encouraging creative thinking and new ideas from every person in every part of this institution,” the official told us. “The policy ideas channel will allow folks at every level both in Washington and in the field to submit fresh and innovative ways to tackle foreign policy challenges, improve diplomatic tradecraft and strengthen existing diplomatic programs. “This is a signal to every layer of bureaucracy that the secretary wants ideas to be wrestled with, grappled with and studied,” the official added. Blinken will unveil this new channel in his speech Wednesday on the State Department’s modernization efforts. Other initiatives he’ll discuss, which have already leaked out, are the creation of a new cyberspace and digital policy bureau, as well as the appointment of a special envoy for critical and emerging technologies. In an all-staff email to State employees Monday, Blinken wrote about the two main elements of his modernization plan. “The first is our need to further strengthen and institutionalize the Department’s expertise in the areas that will increasingly be at the forefront of global affairs,” he said, noting the new cyber shop. “The second element is addressing many of the long-standing issues that make it a challenge to serve in the Department,” he continued, citing concerns about assignments away from family and “limited pathways for advancement.” Reactions inside the building to the new policy channel are mainly positive, but slightly skeptical. “I can see what [Blinken] is trying to do here: He wants to create a venue where you can get your ideas directly to him, which is good and I appreciate it,” said a D.C.-based State Department official. “On the other hand, however, it might create a problem” because it provides an outlet for someone to circumvent the bureaucratic process. "The value of the bureaucracy and State’s clearance process is to weed out ideas that won’t work, have a fatal flaw or have adverse second order effects. There are usually decent reasons why so many gifts from the good idea fairy end up on the cutting room floor," another State official told NatSec Daily. "The challenge will be: how does a boss or boss’s boss feel about someone making an end run to the suggestion box after being told no?" The new channel will go live soon after Blinken speaks, and his team hopes State’s aides use it when needed and as passionately as they do the dissent channel, which will remain active. | | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down and who really has the president's ear in West Wing Playbook, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– LAWMAKERS WANT DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENT CHANGE: A bipartisan group of 17 House lawmakers sent a letter today to national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN requesting his support to reform how the U.S. government provides equity investments in emerging markets. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation currently can only invest in companies and other projects on a dollar-for-dollar basis, the representatives led by Rep. JOAQUIN CASTRO (D-Texas) complained in their letter, meaning “every dollar of equity investment must be matched by an appropriated dollar for Congress. This does not reflect the expected positive returns from the investments.” As a result, the agency “will never come close to having an equity portfolio that will be able to make the sort of impact that Congress envisioned,” they wrote. The lawmakers urge Sullivan to work with the Office of Management and Budget, the DFC and Congress to “rectify this budgetary scoring issue” by having the scoring reflect expected returns for investments. This all sounds very wonky — and it is. But Castro told NatSec Daily “this policy fix will advance U.S. international development and foreign policy goals and position the DFC to provide an effective counterweight to China’s worldwide infrastructure investments. Unleashing the full potential of the DFC is critical for American national security.” Rep. ADAM SMITH (R-Wash.), chair of the House Armed Services Committee, and Rep. MICHAEL MCCAUL (R-Texas), the House Foreign Affairs Committee ranking member, signed on to the letter. TOP DOD OFFICIAL WARNS OF TERROR ATTACKS: The Pentagon’s No. 3 official says terrorist groups in Afghanistan may launch an international attack within the next six months if their operations aren’t disrupted. “We’re actually fairly certain that they have the intention to do so,” COLIN KAHL, the undersecretary of defense for policy, told members of the Senate Armed Services Committee today. “We could see ISIS-K generate that capability in somewhere between six or 12 months, according to current assessments by the intelligence committee. And for al Qaeda, it would take a year or two to reconstitute that capability. We have to remain vigilant against that possibility.” Kahl’s comments reflect a growing consensus within the administration that, left unchecked, terrorist groups in Afghanistan will continue to pose dangers to nations around the world — including the U.S. In June, Secretary of Defense LLOYD AUSTIN said it would take groups like al Qaeda two years before they could threaten America. Lessons learned. Kahl also endorsed a push on Capitol Hill for an independent review of the two-decade-long Afghanistan conflict. The policy chief told senators the Pentagon is "strongly supportive" of a review and is launching its own retrospective looks at the war and the U.S. withdrawal, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN noted. "We also have efforts underway at the Department of Defense, or about to be underway. The Joint Staff has an effort. My organization is working to identify an independent institution that can do an independent review, especially of the time period from February 2020 through the end of the [withdrawal]," Kahl said in an exchange with Sen. KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (D-N.Y.). "And we're in conversations with the NSC and the State Department and the intelligence community to make sure whatever we do is aligned with their ongoing lessons learned activities." The effort has been led in the Senate by Illinois Democrat TAMMY DUCKWORTH, and Armed Services Chair JACK REED (D-R.I.) said he aims to green light the overarching study in a final defense policy bill this year. The House version of the annual National Defense Authorization Act passed last month already includes a provision, sponsored by Rep. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.), to empanel a 12-member bipartisan commission to examine the war and make recommendations on lessons learned from the conflict. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Delivered. Deployed. Defending. 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Using proven Lockheed Martin technology, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system can intercept threats outside and inside the atmosphere. Its unique layered defense capabilities defend against advanced, evolving threats. Learn More | | | U.S. PLEDGES OVER $100M TO ASEAN: President JOE BIDEN today announced the U.S. will provide up to $102 million to the Association of Southeast Nations in a bid to improve the relationship between Washington and the bloc. Around $40 million of that money will go to global health coordination with member countries via joint research and building health system capacity; another $20.5 million will address the climate crisis; up to $20 million to help nations with the economic fallout from the pandemic; around $17.5 million for education, including English-language teacher training; and $4 million to promote gender equality. Congress must approve the funding, but it’s too early to know if some — or any — of these measures will pass. IRON DOME IN GUAM PT. 2: NatSec Daily wants to clear up Monday’s item on the Iron Dome in Guam, which we called a “useless” deployment. Multiple people, namely The Drive’s TYLER ROGOWAY , rightfully pointed out that we were far too uncharitable when we said Iron Dome solely defends against crude rockets. In fact, it also shoots down low-flying cruise missiles (of certain speeds) and drones. Iron Dome could provide multiple tactical benefits to the U.S. military on the island, and testing it out in an operational theater is worth it, supporters argue. (This explanation still doesn’t satisfy some strategic weapons experts.) Others took issue with our characterization, based on conversations with multiple U.S. officials, that the system was put in Guam solely to satisfy Section 112 of the 2019 NDAA. Retired Rear Adm. MARK MONTGOMERY, a former SASC policy director and now a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said the legislation didn’t mandate that, since the Army could have chosen another system — NASAMS — for deployment. “We use [NASAMS] to protect the White House and the Pentagon, we must trust it to be a good system,” he said of the surface-to-air platform. Plus, that system is “eminently integratable” with American systems, “Iron Dome is not. Integration was a clear intent of the legislation.” Indeed, the title of Section 112 includes “interim cruise missile defense capability,” which NASAMS is better at than Iron Dome. Back in 2018, Montgomery and his colleagues thought the military was recommending NASAMS for the Guam deployment. But he was surprised when he learned Army leadership chose Iron Dome. Now, he thinks the Army made a mistake choosing Iron Dome for the short mission and now blames Congress and the 2019 NDAA for the error. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JonnyCustodio. | | | AMERICA’S ‘FEW CREDIBLE OPTIONS’ VS. CHINA INVASION: A recent war game conducted by foreign policy experts concluded the U.S. has “few credible options” to stop China from keeping a seized Taiwan-administered island. It’s yet another data point showing how hard it would be for Washington to deter Beijing from invasive aggressions against the island. The war game, run by the Center for a New American Security, found that “the teams representing the United States and Taiwan struggled to compel a Chinese withdrawal from Dongsha” — which sits in the South China Sea just 170 nautical miles southeast of Hong Kong — “without escalating the crisis. The team representing China avoided further escalation given its first-mover advantage, constrained territorial gains, and geographic proximity.” Per the results, measures like sanctions were too slow and ineffective in compelling China’s retreat, and neither the U.S. nor Taiwan wanted to risk a greater escalation with more punitive military moves. The best way to stop a Chinese takeover of a Taiwanese territory, then, is to deter such an event from happening, the think tank concluded — namely by coordinating efforts with regional allies like Japan. | | | |   | | | | | | CYBERATTACK DISRUPTS IRANIAN GAS: A cyberattack impeded the sale of gas at fueling stations across Iran, the regime said today, though it’s unclear who was behind the digital strike. "The disruption at the refuelling system of gas stations... in the past few hours, was caused by a cyberattack," per the state-run IRIB new agency. "Technical experts are fixing the problem and soon the refuelling process … will return to normal." The semi-official ISNA outlet reported that Iranians seeking to fill up with government-issued cards received a “cyberattack 64411” message on the machines. Oil Ministry officials held an “emergency meeting” to address the issue. Billboards on the highway also featured messages taunting the regime about the indisposed gas stations. The 64411 number is the same one that flashed across screens during a July cyberattack against Iran’s rail system. An Israeli cybersecurity firm attributed that strike to a hacker group that calls itself Indra. | | | RAYTHEON CEO: AFGHAN WITHDRAWAL LED TO 'MEANINGFUL' LOSS: Our own LEE HUDSON wrote (for Pros!) about Raytheon Technologies’ third-quarter earnings call she listened to in which CEO GREG HAYES made an eye-popping statement. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan led to a “not huge, but meaningful” $75 million loss of revenue, he said. That figure is part of a total $275 million in losses the company expects this year mainly due to pandemic-caused supply chain issues. “For context, Raytheon reported sales of $16.4 BILLION for just the QUARTER,” tweeted STEPHEN MILES , Win Without War’s executive director. “The death and war business is doing just fine, even with one fewer battlefield.” U.S. SHIPBUILDING EXECS ADVISING AUSTRALIA ON SUBS: The Australian government is paying three American shipbuilding executives to advise Canberra on submarines –– an advisory role that raises some eyebrows after the AUKUS deal’s announcement. Months before Biden and his counterparts announced the accord, retired Adm. DONALD KIRKLAND, JIM HUGHES and DONALD MCCORMACK were each appointed for a three-year term on the Submarine Advisory Committee. That matters, since Australia will coordinate with the United States and United Kingdom over how best to acquire nuclear-powered submarines over the next 18 months. “Jostling between British and American companies for Australia's future nuclear-powered fleet is well underway, with early debate emerging over whether a US Virginia-class or UK Astute-class submarine is the best base model,” ANDREW GREENE of ABC News in Australia reported. “Defense industry insiders are now privately questioning whether the government will appoint any British experts to the Submarine Advisory Panel given the United Kingdom’s membership of AUKUS and the country's extensive experience with nuclear boats.”
| | | 35 GOP SENS DON’T WANT U.S. PALESTINE CONSULATE: Thirty-five Senate Republicans today introduced a bill to block the Biden administration from creating a U.S. consulate in Jerusalem for Palestinians. The lawmakers, featuring Sens. JIM RISCH of Idaho, MARCO RUBIO of Florida and JIM INHOFE of Oklahoma — respectively the top Republicans on the Foreign, Intelligence and Armed Services committees –– want the administration not to follow through on its promise. “President Biden continues to push forward his inflammatory plan to establish a second mission in Israel’s capital city of Jerusalem — one for the Israelis and a second one for the Palestinians — despite the fact that this plan violates the Jerusalem Embassy Act of 1995 and is completely opposed by the Government of Israel,” Sen. BILL HAGERTY (R-Tenn.) said in a statement. Israel must approve of the consulate, and so far the new government is opposed to the idea. HASC REPUBLICAN WANTS INDIA ALLIANCE: Rep. MIKE WALTZ (R-Fla.), the House Armed Services Committee member, wrote an op-ed with former U.S. Ambassador to the UN NIKKI HALEY arguing that the Biden administration should make India a formal ally. Why? Mainly to counter “China,” a word that comes up in the Foreign Policy article 20 times. “A U.S.-India alliance would give China pause before further expanding into Central and Southern Asia. And we’d be building on solid ground,” they wrote. “An alliance would also recognize the region’s shifting geopolitical realities. China’s newly aggressive posture toward India is not by accident. It is part of a broader plan. The Chinese Communist Party … is emboldened after shoring up support from India’s longtime foe, Pakistan.” Washington-New Delhi relations have grown closer via “the Quad” and deepening economic ties. Going the next step has the support of at least one prominent national security-focused lawmaker and a potential presidential candidate. India also got love in the upper chamber, where Sens. MARK WARNER (D-Va.) and JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas), co-chairs of the India Caucus, urged Biden to waive sanctions on the country for buying Russian-made weapons. “We are concerned that the upcoming transfer of these systems will trigger sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which was enacted to hold Russia accountable for its malign behavior,” they wrote in a joint statement. “As such, we strongly encourage you to grant a CAATSA waiver to India for its planned purchase of the S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile system.”
| | | INTRA-ADMIN FIGHT ON CHINA: The Washington Post’s JOHN HUDSON and ELLEN NAKASHIMA have quite the story exposing a wide rift within the administration over how to handle China. On one end is JOHN KERRY, the special presidential envoy for climate change, who argues that improved ties are the only thing that can convince Beijing to reduce emissions. On the other end is Sullivan, the national security adviser, who doesn’t want to stop hitting China on its human rights violations in exchange for climate progress. Here’s just one scene: “A potential disappointment in Glasgow is something Kerry has tried desperately to avoid. Since early summer, he began advocating for a phone call between Biden and [Chinese President] XI [JINGPING] in the hopes of finding common ground on climate ahead of COP26, viewing the tense relationship as a major problem,” the Post reported. “Sullivan disagreed, sensing that such a call was premature, said senior administration officials.” Administration officials insisted to Hudson and Nakashima that Kerry and Sullivan are on the same page. But it’s also understandable why both men would have competing views: Kerry’s job is to strike major climate agreements while Sullivan’s is to manage many competing priorities. But the revelation of internal discord is potentially damaging ahead of the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow less than a week away. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: How Experimentation Can Speed Joint All-Domain Operations (JADO)
By partnering with every branch of the U.S. military and allies in experiments like Northern Edge, Lockheed Martin is helping warfighters make better, faster decisions in the battlespace. Learn More | | | | | | — JANE LEE, the former senior adviser to Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL who has worked in Senate Appropriations and at the Office of Management and Budget under Presidents GEORGE W. BUSH and BARACK OBAMA , is joining Rebellion Defense as head of policy and government affairs. | | | — ANNA NEMTSOVA, The Atlantic: “VLADIMIR PUTIN’s Waning Tolerance for Art” — NAHAL TOOSI, Politico: "Tiny Nicaragua is Becoming a Big Problem for Joe Biden” — GEORGI KANTCHEV and STU WOO, The Wall Street Journal: “Taiwan Gains Favor in Europe’s East, Angering China” | | | — Biden will participate virtually in the annual East Asia Summit: “The President will reaffirm U.S. support for the ASEAN-led regional architecture and discuss his vision for working together with allies and partners to address the most pressing issues facing the Indo-Pacific region,” per the White House. — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: “Asian Architecture Conference 2021, Session Two — with MICHAEL L. BEEMAN, MANU BHALLA, MATTHEW P. GOODMAN, WILLIAM ALAN REINSCH and MONICA WHALEY” — The Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, 9:30 a.m.: “TechNet Cyber 2021 — with JASON MACKANICK, ANDREW ‘DREW’ MALLOY, MATTHEW PALMER, ROBERT M. SHEA, ROBERT J. SKINNER and more” — House Intelligence Committee, 9:30 a.m.: “ Full Committee Hearing: Diversity, Equity, Inclusion and Accessibility in the Intelligence Community: An Enduring Mission Imperative — with SCOTT BERRIER, WILLIAM BURNS, AVRIL HAINES, RONALD S. MOULTRIE and PAUL NAKASONE” — The Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: “ A New Bhashan Char Agreement: What Now for the Rohingya in Bangladesh? — with SHAHIDUL ISLAM, IRFAN NOORUDDIN and RUDABEH SHAHID” — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: “ Carnegie Connects: A Conversation With Ambassador ZALMAY KHALILZAD — with AARON DAVID MILLER” — The Foreign Policy Research Institute, 10 a.m.: “U.S.-Africa Relations Since 9/11 — with SAMIA CHABOUNI, TSHEPO GWATIWA, OMAR S. MAHMOOD and CHARLES A. RAY” — The Government Executive Media Group, 10 a.m.: “2021 National Security Forum — with SUZANNE WILSON HECKENBERG, GEORGE JACKSON, NELSON LIM, EDACHERIL MATHEW, LINDSAY RODMAN and more” — House Appropriations Committee, 10 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: United States Global COVID-19 Response: Actions Taken and Future Needs — with SARAH CHARLES, JEREMY KONYNDYK, GAYLE SMITH and LESLEY ZIMAN” — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Combating Global Human Trafficking — with CATHERINE CHEN, EVELYN CHUMBOW and ALEX THIER” — House Homeland Security Committee, 10 a.m.: “ Full Committee Hearing: Ensuring Equity in Disaster Preparedness, Response and Recovery — with CHRISTOPHER CURRIE, JAMES JOSEPH, LORI PEEK and CHAUNCIA WILLIS” — House Veterans’ Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: “ Subcommittee Hearing: “Lessons Learned? Building a Culture of Patient Safety Within the Veterans Health Administration” — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: The State of the State Department and State Department Authorization — with BRIAN MCKEON” — The Atlantic Council, 12 p.m.: “Dispatch From the Ground: An American in Kabul — with HOLLIE MCKAY and NILOFAR SAKHI” — Booz Allen Hamilton, 12 p.m.: “ Open Architectures for Modern Space Systems — with BEN AVICOLLI, BILL ‘DATA’ BRYANT, FRANK CALVELLI, GINNY CEVASCO and STEVE MCNUTT” — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 2 p.m.: “ Full Committee Hearing: The Administration’s FY22 Budget Request for the Peace Corps, Development Finance Corporation and Millennium Challenge Corporation — with MAHMOUD BAH, DEV JAGADESAN and CAROL SPAHN” — Senate Intelligence Committee, 2 p.m.: “ Closed Briefing: Intelligence Matters” — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 2:30 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Black Sea Security: Reviving U.S. Policy Toward the Region — with IAN BRZEZINSKI, ALINA POLYAKOVA and JIM TOWNSEND” — Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 2:30 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Strategies for Improving Critical Energy Infrastructure — with ROBERT BRYCE, N. LEVI ESQUERRA, ALEX HERRGOTT, LANNY NICKELL and BRYCE YONKER” — FixUS, 3 p.m.: “Conversation with FIONA HILL” — Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee, 3 p.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Success After Service: Improving Veterans’ Employment, Education and Home Loan Opportunities — with RONALD BURKE JR., ARTHUR DEGROAT, MARGARITA DEVLIN, JUSTIN MONK, PATRICK MURRAY and JOE SCHUMACHER” — The Wilson Center, 3 p.m.: “China’s Leaders: From Mao to Now — with ROBERT DALY, J. STAPLETON ROY and DAVID SHAMBAUGH” | | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, for always keeping the channels of communication open. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
