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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
Ukrainian troops inspect a site following a Russian airstrike in Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 26, 2022. | Vadim Ghirda/AP Photo | With help from Maggie Miller and Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint Two senior U.S. officials openly said this week that the United States was sending Stinger missiles to Ukraine — but now neither the White House, Pentagon nor State Department will openly confirm that’s the case. On Tuesday, the House Foreign Affairs Committee held a hearing about how the U.S. engages with partners and allies. Lawmakers predictably asked the two witnesses — JESSICA LEWIS, the assistant secretary of State for political-military affairs and MARA KARLIN, the assistant secretary of Defense for strategy, plans and capabilities — about America’s lethal assistance to Ukraine following Russia’s invasion. Both responded that, yes, Stingers have been sent to Ukraine. Karlin was the most explicit (around the 41-minute mark): "Since September, there’s been a wide range of support, including Stinger missiles, Javelin missiles, anti-tank rocket systems, grenade launchers, more than 2,000 tons of ammunition, including mortar and artillery rounds, small arms, machine guns. It is indeed a lengthy list of capabilities." The anti-aircraft Stingers were delivered for the first time to Ukraine this week , with 200 of them arriving on Monday alone. It’s thus a matter of public record, and reporting, that the U.S. sent such weapons to help Kyiv fight off Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s forces. But you can’t get any other U.S. official to repeat what Lewis and Karlin disclosed publicly. The State Department pointed us to a February announcement by Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN authorizing an extra $350 million in security assistance to Ukraine, increasing the total to $1.4 billion since 2021. On Thursday, a senior defense official would “only say that we continue to provide Ukraine the systems that they need to defend themselves, and that includes best systems and weapons that they can use to deal with threats on the ground, as well as airborne threats, and that is as far as I'm going to go.” The White House wouldn’t even talk to us on background about the Stingers. It’s all so very out there and yet hush-hush — why? The best NatSec Daily can surmise, from speaking with U.S. and European officials as well as experts, is that the administration doesn’t want to increase tensions with Russia by boasting about the handover of Stingers. It’s a potent weapon that will help Ukrainians defend themselves by, bluntly, killing Russians operating low-flying aircraft. This has been the administration’s MO since the invasion began. The world knows — and Russia knows — that the U.S. is siding with Ukraine. But when it comes to the most provocative moves, namely delivering lethal and effective weapons and intelligence, President JOE BIDEN and his team prefer to keep silent. Clearly the administration has assessed that any official confirmation from the White House would be seen as a serious escalation by Moscow. It speaks to what increasingly appears like a deliberate decision by the administration: openly be seen on the side of defending Ukraine, but not visibly on the side of killing Russians.
| | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine: — Since the war began, Russia has seen more than 9,000 troops killed or injured, lost 33 warplanes, 37 helicopters and 251 tanks ( Ukraine Ministry of Foreign Affairs) — Russian bombing of Chernihiv on Thursday killed 47 people: 38 men and nine women ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — Russia has sent 92 percent of its pre-staged troops on the Ukraine border into the country. There’s been no real appreciable movement by Russians in the north and east, though they continue to advance steadily in the south “where they have had more success” (senior U.S. defense official) — Russia is planning to launch “a comprehensive and extensive infiltration of fake news … expected in the near future” via information operations ( Ukraine Ministry of Defense) Global Response: — Sweden and Finland, non-NATO members, will now join the alliance for Ukraine-related discussion NO NO-FLY ZONE: The “no-fly zone” for Ukraine idea persists even though the Biden administration has firmly ruled it out and every former official and expert we spoke to said it would be tantamount to an act of war. The U.S. and its allies don’t want to fight Russia in Ukraine, so keeping out militarily — save for providing Kyiv with lethal weapons — is their preferred course of action. NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG reiterated all these points during a Friday news conference, our own LILI BAYER reported. A no-fly zone “was mentioned” during a NATO Foreign Ministers meeting in Brussels today, he said, but “allies agree that we should not have NATO planes operating over Ukrainian airspace or NATO troops on Ukrainian territory.” “The only way to implement a no-fly zone is to send NATO planes — fighter planes — into Ukrainian airspace, and then impose that no-fly zone by shooting down Russian planes,” Stoltenberg continued. “If we did that, we’ll end up with something that could end in a full-fledged war in Europe involving many more countries and causing much more human suffering.” The secretary general didn’t shy away from the horror unfolding in Ukraine though, stating clearly the crisis is only bound to get worse in the days and weeks ahead. UKRAINE ‘RAT LINE’: Our own PAUL McLEARY has a strong story about how the U.S. and its NATO allies are getting lethal weapons to Ukraine — even as the Russians threaten to disturb the so-called “rat lines.” “The decision to ship the supplies by road into Ukraine has emerged as a remarkable wartime improvisation, made necessary by the inability to fly aid into the country; Russian jets and radar and air defense systems make flights almost impossible. The weapons deliveries — missiles, small arms, body armor and ammunition — are being made to NATO countries along the border with Ukraine, where they are loaded onto Ukrainian trucks and driven to various locations along the front lines,” he wrote. “For security reasons, officials from several countries involved in the transfers to Ukraine declined to acknowledge where the weapons were crossing the border. But the Polish government has already announced it had shipped ammunition into Ukraine by road, and Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY said this week she was “‘able to get an agreement from Poland to make sure that that delivery could be done through their borders,’” Mcleary continued. The worry is if whether these supply lines can stay open should the Russians control more territory. Now it’s still relatively easy to load weapons into Ukraine; it won’t be so simple once the Russians can track and cut off the means of handover. U.S. SHARING INTEL WITH UKRAINE: The U.S. is sharing intelligence with Ukraine at a “frenetic” pace to help them fend off the Russians, CNN’s NATASHA BERTRAND and KATIE BO LILLIS reported. “[T]he US' secure communications with Ukrainian officials are becoming increasingly difficult to maintain as the war rages on, the sources told CNN. Officials also acknowledged that the US is now more limited in its ability to collect real-time intelligence with no one on the ground, and the apparent lack of military drones flying overhead,” they wrote. “Sources familiar with the intelligence said it is indeed being downgraded, but primarily to scrub sensitive sources and methods — a particular concern given the logistical challenges with establishing fully secure lines with Ukrainian officials amid the Russian onslaught. “In most cases, two sources familiar with the sharing system said, the intelligence being shared involves information about Russian force movements and locations, as well as intercepted communications about their military plans. And it is typically being provided to Ukrainian officials as quickly as within 30 minutes to an hour of the US receiving it, one of the sources said." NatSec Daily readers may remember that yesterday we reported the confusion over whether the U.S. was providing the Ukrainians with targeting intelligence. We can now confirm the broad outlines of this new report: The U.S. is sharing intelligence at remarkable speed, multiple U.S. officials confirmed, though the precise nature of it still remains unclear to us. MEMORIES OF UKRAINE: Instead of our normal Friday “Drinks with NatSec Daily” feature, for the next few weeks we’ll ask members of our community to send us their favorite things about Ukraine. Today, we start off with MICHAEL KOFMAN , Russia director for the Virginia-based CNA think tank and one of the premier analysts of the war. Here’s what he told us: “I’m originally from Kyiv, where my family lived in a quiet part of town on the left bank of the river. My Soviet-era apartment building still stands there. As a kid, like many others, I enjoyed going downtown to walk along the city’s famous Khreschatyk street.” Please send us your favorite memories of Ukraine and we’ll try to feature them in an upcoming Friday edition of NatSec Daily.
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The growing community of F-35 nations strengthen our national defense and deter our enemies. The F-35 is diplomacy in action, fueling shared global deterrence through interoperability and collaboration. Learn more. | | | IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE “WEEKEND”: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio.
| | | RUSSIAN SPACE CHIEF STIRS CONFLICT: DMITRY ROGOZIN , the head of Roscosmos, has seriously undermined one of the few surviving U.S.-Russia partnerships in recent days — threatening to pull out of the International Space Station and announcing that Russia will no longer service Russian-made engines used to launch American satellites, reports our own BRYAN BENDER. The colorful, 58-year-old Putin ally and Twitter troll has long been a challenge for Washington and an extremely wearisome partner even in more amicable times. One former U.S. official who recently interacted with Rogozin at an international conference also said he can be “brash” and a “blowhard.” But Rogozin, a former deputy prime minister, ambassador to NATO and founder of a coalition of nationalist political parties, is clearly one of Putin’s leading boosters and beneficiaries amid the Ukraine invasion — emerging as a prominent attack dog for the regime and a target of government opponents. HOTEL RWANDA’S RUSESABAGINA’S HEALTH FAILING: The man who inspired the film “Hotel Rwanda” is in poor health, his daughter says, and believes he could soon die. PAUL RUSESABAGINA, a Presidential Medal of Freedom recipient and 15-year American resident, was duped onto a flight back to Rwanda in 2020 where he’s since been convicted on false terrorism charges. One of his adopted daughters, ANAISE KANIMBA , told NatSec Daily that Rusesabagina is complaining of arm pain and that his lip is hanging low, perhaps due to facial paralysis. Now she and others are working with the U.S. and Belgian governments to compel Rwanda to let an independent doctor check on him. “If his health is not okay, everything we’re doing [to bring him home] is pointless,” she said. It’s unclear why Rusesabagina’s health is failing, though poor conditions could explain it. The 67-year-old cancer survivor isn’t treated well and is malnourished, Kanimba said. His accommodations are unlikely to improve, Kanimba continued, as Rwandan President PAUL KAGAME has long had it out for the man Hollywood made famous. “It’s almost a personal thing,” she told us. Kagame wants her father “to be humiliated. He wants to kill him.” Kanimba met earlier this week with ROGER CARSTENS, the U.S. special envoy for hostage affairs, and believes her father’s case remains a top priority for the administration. But she noted the war in Ukraine has distracted some people’s attention from the task at hand. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a reminder for why the U.S. must continue to stand up to bullies like Kagame, said Kanimba. “He’s a mini Putin,” and America alongside allies could place more pressure on his regime to compel Rusesabagina’s release. “Rwanda depends on the United States,” she asserted. The State Department didn’t return an immediate request for comment.
| | | UKRAINE GETS ACCESS TO NATO’S CYBER CLUB: Ukraine may not be a member of NATO, but it gained access on Friday to a NATO-affiliated cybersecurity organization that has previously rejected the besieged nation, our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in. The NATO Cooperative Cyber Defense Centre of Excellence, or CCDCOE, announced Friday that its 27 sponsoring nations had unanimously voted to grant Ukraine’s request to join as a contributing participant. Ukraine is not eligible for deeper coordination, however, due to it not being part of NATO. The CCDCOE, headquartered in Estonia, runs training and cyber exercise operations to enhance NATO and non-NATO member states’ cyber expertise. Ukraine has pushed hard for inclusion in the CCDCOE in recent years following repeated Russian cyberattacks, which included attacks in 2015 and 2016 that temporarily turned out the lights in portions of Ukraine. However, Ukraine was blocked from joining the group last month by Hungary, according to Ukrainian news reports. The CCDCOE did not respond to a request for comment on how Hungary’s concerns were resolved. NATO CCDCOE Director Col. JAAK TARIEN pointed to increased cyberattacks against Ukraine in a statement on Friday, noting that “Ukraine could bring valuable first-hand knowledge of several adversaries within the cyber domain to be used for research, exercises and training.” “Capability and knowledge comes from experience, and Ukraine definitely has valuable experience from previous cyber-attacks to provide significant value to the NATO CCDCOE,” Estonian Minister of Defense KALLE LAANET said in a separate statement. The addition of Ukraine to the CCDCOE comes as Ukraine has so far avoided the worst-case scenario cyberattacks from Russia, such as cyberattacks turning off the lights or targeting nuclear facilities, but is continuously facing lower-level attacks. Multiple distributed denial of service attacks in the past month temporarily disabled Ukrainian government websites, with at least one attack linked by the Biden administration to Russia. The attacks continued this week, and on Friday the Ukrainian State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection warned that mass emails with malicious software attached were being sent to Ukrainian government employees and other citizens. HOW BIG TECH COULD BENEFIT BY BAILING ON RUSSIA: If U.S. tech giants decide to sever ties with Russia amid international outcry over the Ukraine invasion, the move wouldn’t cost them as much as other global businesses facing similar pressure to take a stand, reports our own EMILY BIRNBAUM. In contrast to oil, defense and financial services corporations, the Russian market amounts to only a tiny fraction of the tech companies’ overall annual revenue. Apple, Google, Meta and Netflix combined would lose between 1 percent to 2 percent of their multibillion-dollar revenues if they were to remove all of their services from Russia, according to an analyst estimate, and Amazon’s presence in Russia involves limited use of its cloud services. Leaving Russia entirely could help the tech companies win some goodwill with Washington policymakers at a time when they’re coming under increasing scrutiny for their market dominance and role in spreading disinformation. While many of the companies have cut off Russian state media and advertising, so far Apple is the only one to shut down major operations in Russia. On Friday, Russia blocked Facebook and Twitter — clearly an effort to block information coming out of Russia critical of Putin’s war.
| | | |   | | | | | | SPACE FORCE NEW ACQUISITION STRUCTURE: The Space Force is changing the structure of its acquisition command, C4ISRNET’s COURTNEY ALBON reported. “Under the realigned structure, Space Systems Command now has five program executive offices: Assured Access to Space; Battle Management Command and Control; Space Domain Awareness and Combat Power; Communications and Positioning, Navigation and Timing; and Space Sensing,” she wrote, based on a briefing with reporters Friday by Gen. JOHN RAYMOND, chief of space operations. “The realignment makes a pivot within Space Systems Command and within the Space Force," [SSC Commander Lt. Gen. Michael] Guetlein said. "It’s focused on countering the increasing threats that we’re seeing in space. It’s focused on guaranteeing Space capabilities to the nation and to the warfighter. It’s focused on development across the entire lifecycle.” “The realignment is the third major change to the space acquisition command’s structure since 2019, when then-commander of the Space and Missile Systems Center Lt. Gen. JOHN THOMPSON moved away from the previous mission-centered model SMC had operated under to an enterprise model. The resulting structure, dubbed SMC 2.0, divided programs among four offices, or ‘corps’: Development Corps, Production Corps, Enterprise Corps and Atlas Corps,” Albon wrote. The hope is that this change will help the Space Force more quickly innovate, develop and acquire new technologies.
| | | FIRST IN NASTEC DAILY — DEMS DON’T WANT OFFENSIVE WEAPONS SALES TO MOROCCO: Eleven House Democrats sent a letter to Biden yesterday asking him not to send significant or offensive weapons to Morocco over its claims on Western Sahara. The Trump administration authorized $1 billion in weapons to the countries, including four MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones and Hellfire, Paveway and JDAM precision-guided munitions. The sale is still set to go forward with Biden in charge, and Democrats led by Reps. SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.) and COLIN ALLRED (D-Texas) want him to stop it. “Without assurances from Morocco otherwise, we are concerned that these weapons may be used in an offensive manner against the Sahrawi people or may otherwise facilitate Morocco’s illegal occupation of the territory,” they wrote. "[W]e urge the Administration not to proceed with any significant or offensive weapons sales with Morocco. Such sales would be highly inappropriate in light of recent escalating violence between Morocco’s security forces and the Polisario, the lack of assurances from Morocco that such weapons will not be used against the Sahrawi people, and the lack of progress towards a political referendum and a final peace agreement with Western Sahara.” The Morocco deal Trump made was part of the Abraham Accords: The U.S. would recognize Rabat’s claim on Western Sahara if it normalized relations with Jerusalem. The decision led to fierce backlash in Washington, including from Sen. JIM INHOFE (R-Okla.) who has long supported the Western Saharan cause. RUSSIAN OIL BAN? There’s momentum on the Hill to ban the import of oil and gas to the U.S., our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA reported. “Eighteen senators, ranging from liberals like Sen. BRIAN SCHATZ (D-Hawaii) to conservatives like Sen. STEVE DAINES (R-Mont.), are on board with a bill doing that. Speaker NANCY PELOSI backed the idea as well,” he wrote. Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) said both parties would pressure Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER to take up a bill next week and predicted it could get 75 votes. On Wednesday, Sen. TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.) told NatSec Daily he’d be “shocked” if a filibuster-proof majority of Senators wouldn’t support bipartisan legislation to ban those imports. The White House isn’t fully supportive of the idea, saying it's in touch with lawmakers about the upswell in Congress. The reason, as we’ve reported previously, is the administration’s concern with minimizing the economic pain on everyday Americans — which could be both a genuine stance and convenient heading into the 2022 midterms. The U.S. imports around 209,000 barrels per day of crude oil and 500,000 barrels per day of other petroleum products from Russia. AIPAC ENDORSES ELECTION OVERTURNERS: The American Israel Public Affairs Committee endorsed 35 Republican candidates who voted to overturn the 2020 election, the left-leaning pro-Israel group J Street pointed out. AIPAC posted its “ first wave” of endorsements online, featuring a healthy mix of Democrats and Republicans. But more than half of the endorsed Republicans voted against certifying the 2020 election result. Among the endorsees: House Minority Leader KEVIN McCARTHY and No. 3 House Republican Rep. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.). “AIPAC’s support for these candidates endangers American democracy and undermines the true interests and values of millions of American Jews and pro-Israel Americans who they often claim to represent,” LAURA BIRNBAUM , J Street’s national political director, said in a statement. “Whatever their views on Israel, elected officials who threaten the very future of our country should be completely beyond the pale. We call on AIPAC to immediately end their support for these candidates — or explain what could possibly justify supporting those who effectively sided with the insurrectionists on January 6th.” In a statement, AIPAC spokesperson MARSHALL WITTMANN made clear his organization was unlikely to retract the endorsements. “Unlike other groups which have ideological and partisan agendas, we are a single issue organization that is focused on our mission of building bipartisan support in Congress to strengthen the U.S.-Israel relationship,” he said.
| | | EVERYONE VS. GRAHAM: Sen. Graham irresponsibly and dangerously tweeted that someone in Russia should kill Putin. We won’t quote him, but you can see for yourself. The backlash has been fierce — including from his own party. “This is an exceptionally bad idea,” Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) responded on Twitter. “[W]e should not be calling for the assassination of heads of state.” Even Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) — yes, that Marjorie Taylor Greene — urged Graham to tone it down. “This is irresponsible, dangerous & unhinged,” she tweeted. “We need leaders with calm minds & steady wisdom. Not blood thirsty warmongering politicians trying to tweet tough by demanding assassinations.” It can’t be stated enough that such rhetoric is ill-advised and could bolster Putin’s false argument that the West’s policy is regime change. His tweet was also a little rich, for some. “Lindsey Graham [is] asking Russians to show far more courage in the face of Putin's violence than he could ever muster in the face of Trump's tweets,” tweeted MATT DUSS, Sen. BERNIE SANDERS’ (I-Vt.) foreign policy adviser.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Essential to allied airpower.
With the commitment of 14 nations and counting, the U.S. and its allies are powering partnerships, security, and economic growth through the F-35 program. Learn more. | | | | | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: HERBERT “HAWK” CARLISLE is stepping down as CEO of the National Defense Industrial Association, he told our own LEE HUDSON in an exclusive interview (for Pros!). He’s “resigning amid a clash with the organization’s board over the direction of the group,” Hudson reported. — ERIC JACOBSTEIN is now director for central America and Cuba at the National Security Council. He most recently was senior advisor at USAID's Bureau for Latin America and the Caribbean.
| | | — SHANNON VAVRA and SCOTT BIXBY, The Daily Beast: “ Can Anyone Stop the Oligarchs Slithering Out Through Crypto?” — LI YUAN, The New York Times: “How China Embraces Russian Propaganda and Its Version of the War” — JOHN R. DENI, POLITICO Magazine: “ Opinion: Yes, Russia Might Invade a NATO Country. Here’s How the Alliance Should Prepare.”
| | | — The Stimson Center, 8 a.m.: “U.S.-Japan Alliance Cooperation in the Post-Pandemic World — with RIHO AIZAWA, RYOSUKE HANADA, NARITADA MIURA and IPPEITA NISHIDA” — The Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: “The Future of the Democratic Republic of the Congo — with FRANCESCA BOMBOKO and JASON STEARNS ” — The National Defense Industrial Association and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, 1 p.m.: “2022 Pacific Operational Science and Technology Conference — with TIMOTHY BUNNING, JAMES COLSTON, JAMES JARRARD, CHRIS MANNING, HEIDI SHYU and more” — The Brookings Institution, 2 p.m.: “AI, Innovation, and Welfare: A Conversation with JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ — with ANTON KORINEK ” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: “Global Security Forum: Foreign Policy in an Era of Domestic Division — with WILLIAM COHEN, SUSAN GORDON, JOHN J. HAMRE, LEON PANETTA, NANCY YOUSSEF and more” — The Jewish Institute for National Security of America, 2 p.m.: “Back in the Fold: Turkey and the Ukraine Conflict — with SVANTE CORNELL, ALAN MAKOVSKY and BLAISE MISZTAL” — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 6 p.m.: “Full Committee Briefing: Update on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine — with VICTORIA NULAND”
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