Top U.S. officials: Iran deal talks down to final issues

By Alexander Ward and Joseph Gedeon

With help from Paul McLeary, Lee Hudson and Daniel Lippman

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, right, and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian in Moscow on March 15, 2022. | Maxim Shemetov/Pool Photo via AP

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FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– Negotiations to have the United States rejoin the Iran nuclear deal are down to the last issues and Russia backed off its demand for Ukraine-related sanctions relief, two top Biden administration officials told lawmakers Thursday — another sign the once-defunct accord might soon be revived.

BRETT McGURK , the National Security Council’s top Middle East aide, and Iran envoy ROB MALLEY briefed House Foreign Affairs Committee members in a classified setting. The officials struck a positive tone that the administration’s yearlong effort will imminently pay off, though they underlined a renewed pact still could not materialize, per three people either in the session or familiar with its contents.

“The deal is close to being done, just waiting on Iran,” a Democratic lawmaker, who like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak freely, summarized the toplines of the briefing. “Russia walked back its ask for sanctions relief.”

The NSC declined to comment on the record. The State Department didn’t return a request for comment.

The core of the 2015 agreement is that the U.S. and other world powers lift sanctions on Iran in exchange for a severe curb to its nuclear development. Former President DONALD TRUMP didn’t like the deal and withdrew America from it in 2018, paving the way for Iran to move closer — though not close — to having enough nuclear material for a bomb. In February, McGurk and Malley told senators in a similar classified session that Tehran was just “weeks” away from that breakout point.

Painstaking negotiations in Vienna between the U.S. and Iran, conducted with Europeans as intermediaries, neared a conclusion earlier this month. The expectation was that both Washington and Tehran would outline a series of steps whereby the U.S. would remove sanctions as Iran verifiably wound down its nuclear work.

But Russia, a party to the nuclear agreement, complicated matters in early March. Russian Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV said Moscow didn’t want sanctions the U.S. and its allies imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine to impede trade with Iran. Lavrov softened that stance after meeting with his Iranian counterpart this week, saying the Kremlin’s demands wouldn’t stop the deal’s revival.

That could explain McGurk and Malley’s optimism — though not full-on confidence — during the classified briefing today. The administration has further signaled in public that America’s return to the deal is imminent.

“We do think, and we — as we said before, we have made significant progress, we are close to a possible deal, but we’re not there yet,” State Department spokesperson NED PRICE told reporters Wednesday.

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SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism.

War in Ukraine:

— Since the war began on Feb. 24, Russia has lost around 14,000 personnel, as well as 444 tanks, 1,435 armored combat vehicles, 201 artillery systems, 86 warplanes, 108 helicopters, three ships and 11 drones ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense)

— Russia has taken control of the Ukrainian town of Izyum, south of Kharkiv, in an effort to cut off troops in the east (Senior U.S. defense official)

— “The possibility of participation of certain units of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus in hostilities on the side of the Russian Federation remains.” ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense)

— “The Russian invasion of Ukraine has largely stalled on all fronts. Russian forces have made minimal progress on land, sea or air in recent days and they continue to suffer heavy losses. Ukrainian resistance remains staunch and well-coordinated. The vast majority of Ukrainian territory, including all major cities, remains in Ukrainian hands.” ( U.K. Ministry of Defense)

— “We have not seen a flow of fighters” from Syria into Ukraine (U.S. Central Command )

— Russia has launched more than 1,000 missiles into Ukraine and "we have anecdotal indications that Russian morale is not high in some units” (Senior U.S. defense official)

Janes map of Russian positions as of March 17. | Courtesy of Janes

Global response:

U.K.: Britain will send the Sky Sabre air-defense system to Poland along with 100 personnel to operate it ( U.K. Ministry of Defense)

Slovakia: Slovakia is “willing to consider” sending S-300 long-range surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine “immediately” should Bratislava receive “a proper replacement” (Slovakian Ministry of Defense)

Reporting:

— Washington Post: “ Ukrainian cities see massive destruction”

— Wall Street Journal: “Desperation Mounts for Ukrainian in Mariupol as Russia Tries to Capture Key City”

— Vice News: “Foreign Fighters in Ukraine: Many Ready to Fight Despite Little Experience”

BIDEN-XI CALL: President JOE BIDEN will call Chinese leader XI JINPING on Friday, White House press secretary JEN PSAKI said, to “discuss managing the competition between our two countries as well as Russia’s war against Ukraine and other issues of mutual concern.”

Putin is counting on Xi as his economic and political lifeline after the invasion turned Russia into a global pariah. Moscow has also asked Beijing for military and other support , a U.S. official told NatSec Daily earlier this week, an issue that featured in a tense seven-hour conversation Monday between national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN and his Chinese counterpart in Rome.

That chat seemingly set the table for Biden and Xi, who last met for a formal meeting in November. “We do have deep concerns about China’s alignment with Russia at this time,” a senior administration official told reporters Monday, noting Sullivan told YANG JIECHI “about those concerns and the potential implications and consequences of certain actions.”

Read our own PHELIM KINE ’s piece about how China is stuck between the Kremlin and the White House.

BLINKEN CALLS FOR SENATE CONFIRMATION: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN used a news conference today to urge the Senate to confirm Ukraine-related nominees long held in the upper chamber. Those positions include the the assistant secretaries of State for population, refugees and migrations as well as international security and nonproliferation. "I urge the Senate to confirm these nominees quickly," Blinken told reporters.

The secretary also said that he, personally, agrees with Biden that Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN is a war criminal. "Intentionally targeting civilians is a war crime. After all the destruction of the past three weeks, I find it difficult to conclude that the Russians are doing otherwise," Blinken said.

UKRAINIAN STAFF AT U.S. EMBASSY BASHING U.S.: Roughly 600 Ukrainian staff who work at the U.S. embassy in Kyiv claim the Biden administration is backtracking on its commitment to support them following Russia’s invasion.

“A group of Ukrainian employees of the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv sent a letter to State Department management on March 11 raising alarm bells about a ‘change in tone and open denial of prior promises’ by State Department officials in Washington after the Ukrainian employees had requested financial support, help with safely evacuating their families, and possible avenues for visas to the United States,” Foreign Policy’s ROBBIE GRAMER and AMY MACKINNON first reported.

“While we realize that some questions may not have specific answers at the moment, for us, the lack of consistency and ability to at least have one part of our lives secured, is really frightening,” the Ukrainians wrote.

“The local employees also asserted that the State Department officials in Washington who addressed them told them they should consider applying for refugee status and additional support from European countries—not the United States—and cast doubt on whether the U.S. officials understood what it would take for them to apply for refugee status in Europe,” Grammar and Mackinnon noted.

A State spokesperson said the department has “implemented paid administrative leave for all staff unable to work or telework, regardless of their location,” provided “additional financial support to local staff, including the option of salary advances,” and established a “dedicated communications channel” with local employees.

HISTORY WITH ZELENSKYY: It’s clear that Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY didn’t just play a history teacher-turned-president on television. When addressing legislatures of Western countries, the Ukrainian leader drives home his request for more weapons and a no-fly zone by highlighting key historical moments or phrases.

Here he is speaking to America’s Congress : “Remember Pearl Harbor … Remember Sept. 11 … I have a dream.”

Or take his virtual appearance before Germany’s Bundestag: “Chancellor Scholz! Tear down this wall.”

Or his speech to Britain’s Parliament, echoing WINSTON CHURCHILL : “We shall fight in the woods, in the fields, on the beaches, in the cities and villages, in the streets, we shall fight in the hills. ... And we shall not surrender!”

Zelenskyy didn’t allude to any Canadian history when he spoke to Canada’s Parliament, but he did try to get lawmakers to imagine if the scenes unfolding across Ukraine instead took place in Toronto or Ottawa.

The Ukrainian leader gets television and drama, and drawing historical allusions is central to his messaging. (h/t Breaking Defense’s AARON MEHTA for this idea of this item)

A NEW EUROPE: One day, the shooting in Ukraine will stop. Whenever that is, and under what conditions is unknowable right now, but a consensus is dawning in Europe and in Washington that the old status quo is gone. “European security has fundamentally changed. There will be no going back to February 23,” a European diplomat told reporters in a frank briefing on Thursday.

When the war ends, "the Ukraine that we will have is going to be different from the Ukraine we had on February 23. There will be a new Russia, the Russia that we will have is going to be a different Russia than what we had on February 23. ... There will be a new Europe."

It’s a stark indicator of the thinking going on in European circles. In effect, this diplomat said the world was one way before the invasion — and now it’s another.

IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey.

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RUSSIAN COURT EXTENDS GRINER’S DETENTION: A Russian court ruled to extend WNBA star BRITTNEY GRINER’s detention until May 19 , holding on to one of the world’s best basketball players during a tense time in U.S.-Russian relations.

“The Russian Federal Customs Service said earlier this month that its officials had detained the American basketball player after they found vape cartridges containing hashish oil in her luggage at the Sheremetyevo airport near Moscow in February,” the New York Times’ AMANDA HOLPUCH reported, noting Russian media later identified Griner as the arrested individual.

Rep. COLIN ALLRED (D-Texas) has said “Russian authorities have so far denied the State Department’s request for a meeting between consular officials and Ms. Griner,” per Holpuch.

IRAN-ISRAEL TIT-FOR-TAT: Now we have a better understanding of why Iran launched a barrage of rockets at northern Iraq last weekend.

“[T]he attack was retaliation for a previously secret Israeli airstrike on an Iranian drone factory last month. And, according to some officials, the Israeli intelligence operatives who launched the airstrike were based in Iraq,” the New York Times’ FARNAZ FASSIHI, RONEN BERGMAN and ERIC SCHMITT reported.

“A senior intelligence official briefed on the operation said that six suicide quadcopter drones exploded into the Iranian facility near Kermanshah, Iran, on Feb. 12. The official, who asked not be identified when discussing sensitive intelligence issues, said the facility was Iran’s main manufacturing and storage plant for military drones, and that the Israeli attack destroyed dozens of them,” the Times continued.

Israel and Iran have been locked in a long-running shadow war , which Iran typically conducts through proxies. But in this case, Tehran claimed responsibility for the retaliation, possibly indicating a more aggressive posture in its fight with Israel. This battle could heat up as Israel continues to target Iranian drone facilities and Iran feels emboldened enough to respond openly.

KREMLIN: RUSSIAN SITES FACING UNPRECEDENTED CYBERATTACKS: Russia’s digital ministry said that government websites are facing unprecedented cyberattacks, according to the state-linked TASS news agency.

"If previously their power at peak moments reached 500 gigabytes, then now it is at 1 terabyte," the ministry said, per a Reuters report on the TASS story. "That is two to three times more powerful than the most serious incidents of this kind that have been previously reported."

“Russian government entities and state-owned companies have been targeted over events in Ukraine, with the websites of the Kremlin, flagship carrier Aeroflot and major lender Sberbank among those to have seen outages or temporary access issues in recent weeks,” Reuters reported.

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER:  The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

NAVY SEEKING LCS RETIREMENT: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) first reported that the Navy is looking to retire some Freedom-class littoral combat ships in the Pentagon’s FY 2023 budget (yes, we’re already talking about next year’s budgets).

The service proposed retiring three LCS hulls in the fiscal 2022 budget request, but Congress blocked the move. The Freedom variant, built by Lockheed Martin, has suffered a series of problems, including faulty engines, but it is an open question whether Congress will go along with the Navy’s plan.

It’s not yet clear how many of the ships the Navy plans to retire. A DoD spokesperson declined to confirm the retirement request is in the budget plan. We’ll stay on this.

BREAKING — The House voted to suspend normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus in a 424 to 8 vote, paving the way for Biden to increase tariffs on Russian products.

HOUSE INTEL LEADERS WANT AIRCRAFT SENT TO UKRAINE: The top two leaders of the House Intelligence Committee, Chair ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.) and ranking member MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio), sent a letter to Biden urging his administration to work with NATO partners to send Ukraine warplanes and air-defense systems.

“With the war continuing and Russia’s brutality increasing, we believe the United States must work with our NATO Allies to provide the Ukrainian Air Force with additional airpower so it can continue to defend its skies,” they stated alongside Reps. JIM HIMES (D-Conn.), BRAD WENSTRUP (R-Ohio), RAJA KRISHNAMOORTHI (D-Ill.) and CHRIS STEWART (R-Utah).

The letter — sent on March 7, more than a week before Biden announced a $800 million weapons package that included Switchblade drones — called on Biden to “provide our NATO Allies who transfer Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine other airframes, such as the F-16, to bolster their own defenses.” The U.S. has since come out against the transfer of Eastern European fighter jets to Ukraine, saying that such a move would escalate tensions with Russia and, in the worst case, lead to World War Three.

Still, the high-powered letter makes clear that Biden will continue to face pressure from both parties to facilitate the delivery of warplanes to Ukraine.

DON’T MISS POLITICO’S INAUGURAL HEALTH CARE SUMMIT ON 3/31: Join POLITICO for a discussion with health care providers, policymakers, federal regulators, patient representatives, and industry leaders to better understand the latest policy and industry solutions in place as we enter year three of the pandemic. Panelists will discuss the latest proposals to overcome long-standing health care challenges in the U.S., such as expanding access to care, affordability, and prescription drug prices. REGISTER HERE.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– 590 VICTIMS OF TERROR ASK BIDEN TO REVERSE AFG CASH SEIZURE: Nearly 600 victims of terror wrote to Biden on Wednesday asking him to reverse an executive order that authorized the seizure of billions from Afghanistan’s central bank partly to pay the families of 9/11 victims.

“Mr. President, we were deeply saddened by your decision on February 11, 2022, regarding $3.5 billion of frozen Afghan funds, which effectively handed the funds to a federal judge in New York to distribute to a small group of victims who fortuitously had obtained judgments against the Taliban, instead of just directing the money” into a general fund to pay all 9/11 families seeking damages. “This has reopened our old wounds.”

The letter is particularly powerful as it comes from victims and family members of victims of terror attacks in Beirut in 1983, the Khobar Towers in 1996, and the East African embassy bombings in 1998, among others.

The group of 590 signatories requests a meeting with the president to explain why he erred in his Afghanistan decision.

GOP AIMS TO OUT-HAWK BIDEN ON UKRAINE: Biden authorized $1 billion in military assistance to Ukraine this week alone — yet Republicans still think it’s not enough, per our own BURGESS EVERETT, OLIVIA BEAVERS and ANDREW DESIDERIO.

“Our own president needs to step up his game. We’re not doing nearly enough quickly enough to help the Ukrainians,” said Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL after the Ukrainian leader’s Wednesday address to Congress, adding: “Comparing Zelenskyy to Biden is depressing.”

The rhetoric in the Senate is far less harsh than in the House: “I just hope [Zelenskyy’s speech] moves that senile devil we got in the White House,” said Rep. MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.), the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee. “The Administration’s delayed response has cost Ukrainian lives,” tweeted Rep. Turner.

Democrats, of course, have sprung to Biden’s defense. “Many of the folks who are the first to run to the cameras with forceful proposals for what the president has to do today, are the last to come to classified briefings and ask insightful questions,” said CHRIS COONS (D-Del.), a top Biden ally.

— ASHISH JHA will be the next White House Covid-19 coordinator, taking over for the departing JEFFREY ZIENTS.

— JOEL RUBIN stepped down as executive director of the American Jewish Congress. He’s set to join the Democracy Partners consulting firm and will be a podcast host and senior adviser at Really American PAC.

— BOB KOLASKY is now senior vice president for critical infrastructure at Exiger. He most recently was director of the National Risk Management Center at the Department of Homeland Security.

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— TOM SIMONITE and GIAN M. VOLPICELLI, Wired: “Ukraine’s Digital Ministry Is a Formidable War Machine”

— JERRY HENDRIX, National Review: “The Defense Budget We Need”

— EMILY TAMKIN, New Statesman: “Why the US far right can’t quit Putin”

— The Atlantic Council, 8:30 a.m.: “Baltic Perspectives on Russia— with RICHARD KOLS, MARKO MIHKELSON and LAMIA ANDRIKIENE”

— The House Foreign Affairs Committee, 9:00 a.m.: “Briefing on Yemen (CLOSED)”

— The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 10:30 a.m.: “Assessing Ukraine’s defensive needs — with WESLEY CLARK, STACIE PETTYJOHN and MATTHEW KOENIG”

— The Hudson Institute, 12:00 p.m.: “Reassessing America’s Middle East Policy— with YAAKOV AMIDROR, JONATHAN SCHACHTER and MICHAEL DORAN”

— The Atlantic Council, 12:30 p.m.: “A Structural Response to Russia’s War— with DAVID LAMMY, BERNIE SANDERS and DELARA BURKHARDT”

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

And thanks to our editor, John Yearwood, who trusts us when we say the filing time for this newsletter is “close.”

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