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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | With help from Maggie Miller Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint
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This image made from video broadcasted by North Korea's KRT, shows a military parade with what appears to be possible new intercontinental ballistic missile at the Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang, Saturday, Oct. 10, 2020. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un warned Saturday that his country would “fully mobilize” its nuclear force if threatened as he took center stage at a massive military parade to mark the 75th anniversary of the country’s ruling party. (KRT via AP) | KRT via AP | North Korea is back to testing intercontinental ballistic missiles, restarting the provocative launches for the first time since November 2017 in what could prove a mounting challenge for President JOE BIDEN. According to two senior U.S. officials, Pyongyang’s two launches on Feb. 26 and March 4 featured the “new strategic weapon” North Korean leader KIM JONG UN unveiled during an October 2020 parade. But that missile, the largest ever seen in North Korea, didn’t demonstrate “ICBM range or capability,” a senior administration official told reporters on a Thursday call without providing visual evidence. The U.S. arrived at that conclusion after consultations with South Korea and Japan. “These launches are likely intended to test elements of this new system before the DPRK conducts a launch in full range, which they will potentially attempt to disguise as a space launch,” the official continued, using the acronym for North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Doing it this way was a “less provocative” option, the Stimson Center’s JENNY TOWN told NatSec Daily, which helps explain why Pyongyang also didn’t reveal images of the tests as it habitually does for others. North Korea is back to firing its most threatening weapon, one that could potentially reach the entirety of the United States with a nuclear bomb on top. The tests officially end Pyongyang’s self-imposed moratorium on ICBM launches, which it put in place to allow for personal diplomacy between Kim and former President DONALD TRUMP. But those three flashy Trump-Kim summits proved fruitless and the sanctions the U.S. and others imposed on North Korea continue to devastate its economy. Pyongyang expressed frustration with the status quo, issuing a January report in the state-run Korean Central News Agency that the regime might be "restarting all temporally suspended activities." The "hostile policy and military threat by the U.S. have reached a danger line that can not be overlooked any more," the report continued. The U.S. intelligence community took those comments seriously, noting in the just-released Annual Threat Assessment that “North Korea began laying the groundwork for an increase in tensions that could include ICBM or possibly a nuclear test this year.” The question is what an administration distracted by Ukraine can do about North Korea entering the chat. The options don’t look great. Increasing sanctions have failed over successive administrations and the U.S. intelligence community doubts more economic pressure will change Kim’s calculus. “Kim views nuclear weapons and ICBMs as the ultimate guarantor of his totalitarian and autocratic rule of North Korea and believes that over time he will gain international acceptance as a nuclear power,” reads the new annual threat assessment. But the Biden administration will travel the sanctions road anyway. “Tomorrow, the Department of Treasury will announce new actions to help prevent the DPRK from accessing foreign items and technology that enable it to advance prohibited weapons programs,” the senior administration official told reporters, but wouldn’t detail any specifics. “There will be a range of further actions in the coming days.” Diplomacy isn’t working, either, as North Korea has yet to respond to America’s outreach since Biden entered the Oval Office. And South Korea just elected YOON SUK-YEOL — a North Korea hard-liner — as its new president for the next five years. "Peace can only be maintained when there is strong deterrence. A war can only be prevented by securing a preemptive strike capability and showing the will to pursue it. As we have seen in Ukraine, a country's national security and peace cannot be protected by paper and ink," Yoon said in a debate last month. South Korea is already deep in a military modernization project — involving tests of provocative missiles of its own — which some experts suspect Yoon will continue. JUNG PAK, the deputy U.S. special representative for North Korea, will address the Center for a New American Security think tank in about an hour. She’ll have some … fun … trying to detail next steps, we’re sure.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: X2 Technology™ delivers affordability to RAIDER X® and DEFIANT X™ FVL aircraft.
Proven X2 Technology™ powers both RAIDER X® and DEFIANT X™ aircraft. Pilots and maintainers can easily transition between aircraft, improving affordability over the life of the Army’s Future Vertical Lift program. Learn more. | | | | | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine: — Since the war started, Russia has lost more than 12,000 personnel as well as 335 tanks, 123 artillery systems, 49 warplanes, 81 helicopters, three ships and seven drones ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — The large Russian column to the northwest of Kyiv has “made little progress in over a week” while there’s been a “notable decrease in overall Russian air activity” ( U.K. Ministry of Defense) — Russia “continue[s] to hold the settlements Poliske, Kukhari, Borodyanka, Andriivka, Motizhyn, Gorenyichi, Bucha, Demidiv.” ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) Global Response: — U.K.: London sanctioned seven Russian oligarchs today, including Chelsea FC owner ROMAN ABRAMOVICH. (British Prime Minister’s Office) — Canada: Canada announced $91.5 million to accelerate the immigration of Ukrainians to the country (Canadian prime minister) HOW THE POLISH FIGHTER JET DEAL DIED: A three-way fighter-jet deal to bolster Ukraine’s defenses against Russia is dead — just five days after the White House first revealed an openness to making it work, per Alex, PAUL McLEARY and BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN. The saga that started 11 days ago with an errant comment by a top European Union diplomat ended unceremoniously when the chief Pentagon spokesperson and the head of the U.S. European Command separately declared Wednesday that the U.S. wouldn’t take part in an agreement to give warplanes to Poland after it sends its fleet to Ukraine. Skeptics inside the Biden administration pushed back on the idea of green-lighting the transfer of Poland’s MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine, and Biden sided with those skeptics, three U.S. officials told them. “POTUS will do what the military advises here and the advice now is not to do this and instead send the Ukrainian government more things they can make good use of,” a senior administration official said. Ukraine has “many planes they already don’t fly much because of Russian air defense.” The official added that it’s “not clear what sending more planes achieves.” The transfer might have been possible if the deal was kept under wraps, but that became impossible after JOSEP BORRELL , the EU’s foreign affairs and security policy chief, declared unequivocally to reporters on Feb. 27 that the bloc would provide Ukraine with fighter jets. Appearing alongside Vice President KAMALA HARRIS in Warsaw today, Polish President ANDRZEJ DUDA said his government “wanted NATO as a whole to make a common decision,” about the jets, “so that Poland remains a credible member of NATO — not a country who decides on its own important issues which impact the security of NATO as a whole.” Read their tick-tock on how to lose a MiG in 11 days here.
| | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | HARRIS SAYS U.N. SHOULD PROBE PUTIN’S ‘ATROCITIES’: VP Harris, speaking alongside Duda, said the United States would participate in investigations by the United Nations to determine if Russia had potentially committed war crimes during its invasion of Ukraine, Quint reports. Harris accused Russia of committing “atrocities” amid the two-week conflict, citing what the international community has already “been able to see” in images and videos of Ukraine’s devastated urban centers — specifically the Russian airstrike that hit a maternity and children’s hospital in Mariupol. But Duda went further than Harris, saying it “is obvious to us” that Russian forces “are committing war crimes” in Ukraine. The more than 1 million refugees who have fled to Poland over the past 10 days have provided the “reports of witnesses — and they also have those proofs on their smartphones,” Duda said. The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court announced last month that he would open an investigation into possible war crimes or crimes against humanity in Ukraine. And last Friday, the U.N. Human Rights Council approved a resolution — brought by Ukraine — condemning alleged human rights violations by Russia and agreeing to establish a commission to investigate the charges, which include possible war crimes. PENTAGON ASKS BIDEN FOR TROOPS IN SOMALIA: The U.S. military is asking Biden to send hundreds of troops into Somalia to fight off the al-Shabaab terrorist group, The Wall Street Journal’s MICHAEL PHILLIPS reported. “Military commanders want the White House to reverse then-President Donald Trump’s last-minute order to withdraw some 700 Army Green Berets, Navy SEALs and Marine Raiders from bases in Somalia, where they had been training an elite local unit to fight al-Shabaab, according to the officials. The Pentagon moved most of the American commandos to neighboring Djibouti and Kenya,” he wrote. The al Qaeda-affiliated group has an estimated 5,000 to 7,000 fighters, and the U.S. has been fighting the group out of the public eye since 2007. The Biden administration launched its first strike on the group in July. It’s unclear if Biden will approve the request. While he’s loath to put U.S. troops on the ground for a war, he’s shown a strong inclination for counterterrorism operations. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey . While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and our new fellow @JGedeon1.
| | | |   | | | | | | TROUBLE IN PARADISE? CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS hinted today at a potentially tenuous China-Russia relationship in the wake of Moscow’s increasingly brutal tactics against Ukraine, with Burns telling the Senate Intelligence Committee that Chinese leader XI JINPING is “unsettled,” our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in. “The Chinese leadership, first, has invested a lot in partnership with Russia, and I don’t expect that to change anytime soon,” Burns said during the committee’s annual worldwide threats hearing. “I do however believe that the Chinese leadership, President Xi in particular, is unsettled by what he’s seeing, partly because his own intelligence doesn’t appear to have told him what was going to happen.” Xi and Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN issued a 5,000-word joint statement ahead of the Winter Olympics last month outlining how the two nations approached different issues, with the statement released following a meeting of the leaders in Beijing. The New York Times reported last week that Chinese officials asked the Russian government to hold off on invading Ukraine until the end of the Winter Olympics. But the reality of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, including the targeting of civilians and displacement of millions of Ukrainians, may have shifted China’s calculus. Burns pointed to Xi’s concerns over reputational damage to China by its association with Russia, potential economic consequences and the invasion resulting in bringing the U.S. and its European allies closer together. “What has unfolded in Ukraine, the ugliness of it, the flawed assumptions that underpinned it from the point of view of President Putin, have unsettled the Chinese leadership a little bit, they are unsettled by the reputational damage that could come from that,” Burns said. FORMER GERMAN CHANCELLOR HUDDLES WITH PUTIN: GERHARD SCHRÖDER — who served as Germany’s chancellor from 1998 to 2005 and has since profited in the private sector due to his Russian energy ties — is meeting with Putin in Moscow, where he’ll work to mediate an end to the invasion of Ukraine, per our colleagues at POLITICO Europe. Schröder has come under fierce criticism at home and abroad for refusing to sever his close ties to Moscow following Putin’s invasion. Even several of his office staff quit last week after he insisted on keeping his senior roles at Kremlin-linked energy giants Rosneft and Gazprom. Schröder’s Moscow visit follows talks in Istanbul with a Ukrainian politician who is a member of the country’s delegation for peace talks with Russia, POLITICO Europe reports. German officials said they hadn’t been informed in advance of Schröder’s initiative. Ukrainian ambassador to Germany ANDRIJ MELNYK suggested last week that Schröder could try to mediate between Moscow and Kyiv. $100B IN UKRAINIAN ASSETS WIPED OUT BY WAR: OLEG USTENKO, chief economic adviser to Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, says Russia’s invasion has already destroyed about $100 billion in Ukrainian assets, per our own DOUG PALMER (for Pros!). That total includes roads, bridges, hospitals and other buildings and material demolished by Russian forces. The most important thing that the U.S. and the European Union can do to help Ukraine is to send more weapons and ammunition, Ustenko said. He also repeated his call for a worldwide embargo on all Russia energy shipments to cut off the “blood money” fueling Moscow’s military campaign. The U.S. and Canada have already moved to halt Russia energy imports. But countries in Europe, which are more dependent on Russian supplies, have been slow to follow suit. “I understand that Europeans do not want to be cold. But I can [assure] you that it’s much, much, much colder in the underground of Ukraine,” where people are hiding from the Russian attack, Ustenko said.
| | | KYIV’S HACKERS KICK INTO HIGH GEAR: Ukraine’s cybersecurity community members have organized themselves on private-messaging channels to conceive and coordinate campaigns designed to put stress on Putin, entice ordinary Russians to rebel against the war and bring down some of the country’s essential services, per our own LAURENS CERULUS (for Pros!). Zelenskyy’s government has supported and directed the effort. At the start of the conflict, Ukrainian digital minister MYKHAILO FEDOROV called for the creation of an “IT army.” Ever since, government officials have been instructing cyber volunteers on secure messaging groups and showing off their successes on public channels like Telegram’s IT Army of Ukraine. To the West, Ukraine’s hacking collectives present a paradox as well as a unique challenge. The groups in effect look and act much like the shady actors that have been operating out of Russia for years, plaguing Western governments with everything from ransomware attacks on critical infrastructure to espionage in government networks. The difference is that this time, Western governments sympathize with the hackers’ cause.
| | | DEFENSE BOOST: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) outline the major national defense boost contained in the governmentwide funding package that’s nearing the finish line. The package includes $782 billion for national defense, including the Pentagon, nuclear weapons and other national security programs — $29 billion above the Biden administration's request and $4 billion more than Congress approved in the NDAA in December. Funding specifically for the Department of Defense came to $743 billion. Ukraine aid: The overall $1.5 trillion government-wide spending package separately includes $13.6 billion for emergency assistance for Ukraine, including $6.5 billion for the Pentagon to position troops in Europe and restock weapons sent to Kyiv. Iron Dome: The bill also fulfills Israel's long-stalled $1 billion request to replenish interceptors for its Iron Dome missile defense system. Hardware: Appropriators boosted Navy shipbuilding to $26.7 billion for 13 new warships, five more than the administration requested. The bill matches Pentagon requests for 85 F-35 fighters and 12 F-15EX jets. It also funds a dozen Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornets the Navy didn't include in its budget. The bill also buys 20 more Lockheed Martin C-130J transport planes than the Pentagon sought for the Air National Guard and the Air Force Reserve. Indo-Pacific: Appropriators touted an additional $1.4 billion to deter China, including adding $75 million for a defense radar in Hawaii and $80 million more for developing air and missile defenses for Guam. MDA FIRES PATRIOT FROM THAAD: The Missile Defense Agency successfully launched a version of the Patriot missile from the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system known as THAAD on Feb. 24, Lockheed Martin told Defense News’ JEN JUDSON. “The Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhanced — or PAC-3 MSE — was fired using the THAAD system against a simulated incoming target, SCOTT ARNOLD, vice president of integrated air and missile defense at Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control, said in a March 9 statement,” per Judson. The defense contractor makes both the missile and THAAD. “The Army and MDA have worked rapidly over the past several years to integrate THAAD and Patriot in response to an urgent operational need from the service on the Korean Peninsula, where there is a need for a defensive capability for maneuver forces,” Judson wrote.
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S INAUGURAL HEALTH CARE SUMMIT ON 3/31: Join POLITICO for a discussion with health care providers, policymakers, federal regulators, patient representatives, and industry leaders to better understand the latest policy and industry solutions in place as we enter year three of the pandemic. Panelists will discuss the latest proposals to overcome long-standing health care challenges in the U.S., such as expanding access to care, affordability, and prescription drug prices. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | 2 SEN DEMS DEMAND CIVILIAN CASUALTY PROBE IN YEMEN: Sens. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) and CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) have requested the Defense Department investigate reports of civilian casualties from U.S. military operations in Yemen. “Only by gaining a more accurate picture of past incidents can the U.S. learn important lessons, institute needed structural reform, and begin providing redress to those harmed,” the lawmakers wrote, adding “the Department of Defense must do more to show it takes the prospect of accountability for civilian deaths and injuries with the seriousness it deserves.” The U.S. has continued to assist the Saudi-led coalition’s war on Yemen, though the Biden administration downgraded that help solely to maintaining Riyadh’s warplanes so they can stay in the air. However, the coalition uses U.S.-made weapons to hit its targets — and kill civilians. HOUSE DEMS JOIN GOP IN WARNING AGAINST JCPOA: A bipartisan group of 21 House members, including 12 Democrats, sent a letter Thursday to Biden expressing concern about America’s possible reentry into the Iran nuclear deal. “We will review any agreement closely, but from what we currently understand, it is hard to envision supporting an agreement along the lines being publicly discussed,” the lawmakers, featuring Rep. ELAINE LURIA (D-Va.), wrote in a letter obtained by Jewish Insider’s MARC ROD. Their main concerns are that the U.S. and its allies will lift sanctions on the supreme leader’s inner circle and the foreign terrorist organization designation on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in exchange for America’s return to the pact. “Without adequately addressing Iran’s role as the world’s leading state-sponsor of terror — which was noticeably absent from the 2015 JCPOA — and simultaneously providing billions of dollars in sanctions relief, the United States would be providing a clear path for Iranian proxies to continue fueling terrorism,” the House members said. The U.S. can reenter the agreement without congressional approval. But this letter is a warning that the Democratic caucus isn’t firmly behind the president’s policy and may see some members of his own party bash the decision in the press and on television.
| | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– EXPERTS OPPOSE NO-FLY ZONE: A group of 78 experts signed an open letter opposing a no-fly zone in Ukraine, adding heft to the argument against putting U.S. troops in direct engagement with Russians. “[G]oing to war with Russia, a nuclear peer of the United States, would expose Americans to vast and unnecessary risks. A war that expands beyond Ukraine’s borders could also inflict damage across Europe and weaken America’s NATO allies. We call upon the administration to avoid such a gambit and continue to use appropriate diplomatic means and economic pressure to end the conflict,” wrote the experts, led by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s STEPHEN WERTHEIM and the American Institute for Economic Research’s WILLIAM RUGER. This letter comes just two days after an Atlantic Council-led group of 27 experts openly advocated for a “limited no-fly zone ” in Ukraine — an argument the new grouping of experts take head on. “Some of those calling for even a ‘limited’ no-fly zone admit that they are willing to see the United States and its NATO allies wage war against Russia in defense of Ukraine,” reads the letter. “A no-fly zone would expand the war, not stop it.” “U.S. policymakers should do everything possible to avoid getting into a costly clash with a nuclear-armed Russia over matters that, as successive U.S. administrations have recognized, do not affect the security and prosperity of the American people," Ruger told NatSec Daily. “We hope our letter will fortify the administration's stance and help the wider public to understand that a no-fly zone means war with Russia and shouldn't be promoted by anyone who has a serious regard for the safety and well-being of the American public,” Wertheim added.
| | | — YI SE GWON started at Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control as a principal business development analyst. The Army retiree previously served as a special assistant to the Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
| | | — ROSE GOTTEMOELLER, Foreign Affairs: “How to Stop a Nuclear Arms Race” — KEVIN DUGGAN, New York Magazine: “The Hunt for Russian Oligarchs’ Luxury Apartments” — STEVEN HALL, The Washington Post: “Putin Doesn’t Fear a Coup by Oligarchs. But He Should Fear His Fellow Spies.”
| | | — Washington Post Live, 11 a.m.: “World Stage: Ukraine with JULIANNE SMITH, United States Ambassador to NATO” — Homeland Security and Defense Forum, 12 p.m.: “Celebrating Women in Homeland Security — with CASIE ANTALIS, HOLLY CANEVARI, VALERIE COFIELD, PATRICIA COGSWELL, KRISTY DAPHNIS and more” — Institute for Corean-American Studies, 7 p.m.: “The Ukraine Crisis, Indo-Pacific, Northeast Asia and U.S. National Security — with GARY SAMORE” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, John Yearwood, who also believes missiles are the ultimate guarantor of his totalitarian and autocratic rule.
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Because of their shared X2 Technology™, RAIDER X® and DEFIANT X™ will require fewer support personnel. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
