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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, left, and Poland's Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau participate in a media conference in Rzeszow, Poland, Saturday, March 5, 2022. | Olivier Douliery, Pool Photo via AP | With help from Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint Poland is getting a lot of attention from the Biden administration — and not always for good reasons. Poland’s 332-mile border with Ukraine meant the NATO member was always going to be a major player the moment Russia invaded. Poland has already welcomed 1.35 million Ukrainian refugees while serving as one of two main locations for sending thousands of weapons, including anti-aircraft missiles, to Kyiv’s forces. It’s why Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN traveled to the country last week, asserting alongside his counterpart that the U.S. and Poland “will stand together, as we’ve been standing together, in support of Ukraine and against Russia’s unprovoked, unwarranted, premeditated invasion.” And it’s why Vice President KAMALA HARRIS is on her way there now for more talks in what will be her biggest foreign policy test yet. But the spotlight is also on Poland because President JOE BIDEN’s team is toiling internally and arguing openly with Warsaw about a fighter jet deal. As Alex and PAUL McLEARY reported last night , Poland’s government surprised the Biden administration by announcing its willingness to deliver 28 MiG-29s to the U.S. with the understanding that they would eventually be handed over to Ukrainian pilots. In return, Warsaw expects America to provide the more advanced F-16 warplane. The problem is Poland didn’t coordinate with the U.S. — like, at all. “To my knowledge, it wasn’t pre-consulted with us that they planned to give these planes to us,” VICTORIA NULAND , undersecretary of State for political affairs, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday. “I was in a meeting where I ought to have known about that just before I came,” Nuland said. “So I think that actually was a surprise move by the Poles.” Then the Pentagon put the kibosh on the proposal. The U.S. “will continue to consult with Poland and our other NATO allies about this issue and the difficult logistical challenges it presents, but we do not believe Poland's proposal is a tenable one,” JOHN KIRBY , the Pentagon’s chief spokesperson, said in a Tuesday statement. Complicating matters is that there’s no cohesion within the Biden administration about what to do now. A senior administration official told us that Defense Department and intelligence officials said in recent deliberations they’re against sending Polish warplanes to Ukraine. Their biggest worry, we’ve been told by many U.S. officials, is that the transfers would escalate tensions and the war. When we asked about this, Kirby said “I don’t want to get into internal deliberations.” Criticism is mounting. “The White House and Pentagon are dead wrong. Sending Polish MiGs to Ukraine is not only doable but the only morally right choice. Military experts know how to do this safely. Could someone please send some courage to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue now?” MELINDA HARING, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, tweeted this morning. Even SEAN PENN is weighing in: “Somewhere in the bureaucratic chain between our White House & the Polish Gov., the desperately NEEDED jets are not yet delivered to Ukraine. Public outcry may find the bottleneck,” he tweeted after chatting with ANDRIY YERMAK, a top Ukrainian official. But others say Ukraine won’t really benefit from the MiGs anyway. “Ukrainian pilots don't know how to fly these yet because they've been upgraded multiple times over the years, it's not clear how they will get into the country safely, and most importantly it doesn't change the correlation of forces,” tweeted RYAN EVANS, CEO of Metamorphic Media, the company that publishes War on the Rocks. Blinken today said the goal is to ensure the Polish fighter jet deal gets done “in the right way,” but no one inside the administration can tell us what that even looks like, given all the logistical challenges it would entail. But it looks like the U.S. and Poland can still strike agreements: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN approved Warsaw’s request to move two U.S. Army Patriot anti-aircraft batteries from Germany into Poland.
| | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine: — Russia has seen more than 12,000 personnel killed or injured and lost 317 tanks, 1,070 armored vehicles, 120 artillery systems, 49 aircraft, 81 helicopters and 3 ships ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — Russia is “regrouping” for another push to take Kyiv while attempting to capture the cities of Sumy, Kharkiv, Mariupol and Mykolaiv ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — Russia has made “no real ground progress” in the last 24 hours, though Russian forces appear to be “just outside” the city of Kharkiv with a “similar situation” around Mykolaiv (senior U.S. defense official) — Russia destroyed a children’s hospital in Mariupol ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — Ukrainian air defenses have enjoyed “considerable success,” so far stopping Russia from gaining “any degree of control of the air” ( U.K. Ministry of Defense) — Russia has sent conscripts into Ukraine, an admission that comes after long denying that was the case ( Russian Ministry of Defense) — Approximately 2,155,000 people have fled Ukraine since Feb. 24, with nearly 1,300,000 million of them now in Poland (U.N. High Commissioner on Refugees) Global Response: — U.K.: Britain plans to send Starstreak man-portable anti-aircraft missiles ( U.K. Ministry of Defense) UKRAINE COULD DEAL ON NEUTRALITY: A foreign policy aide to Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY told Bloomberg TV that Kyiv is open to Russia’s neutrality demand — as long as it’s given security guarantees — but won’t surrender any territory. “Surely, we are ready for a diplomatic solution,” said IHOR ZHOVKVA, Zelenskyy’s deputy chief of staff. For Ukraine to agree not to join NATO or other European blocs, Zhovkva said Kyiv needs unspecified security guarantees “from the U.S., from Great Britain, from Germany” and others — not just Russia. But Russia’s demand that Ukraine recognize two breakaway regions as independent and Crimea as Russian is a non-starter, the aide continued, saying Ukraine won’t surrender a “single inch” of land. Ukraine and Russia have held three peace meetings so far with no real progress made. But Kyiv has continually signaled that it’s willing to drop its long-time demand of joining NATO, with Zelenskyy himself recently telling ABC News that he “cooled” on the idea. RUSSIAN DEMANDS SCUTTLING IRAN DEAL: Russia’s demand that Ukraine-related sanctions not impede trade between Moscow and Tehran is hurting the chances of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal’s revival, Reuters’ JOHN IRISH and FRANCOIS MURPHY reported. "There is still no resolution to the Russia demands," an unnamed Western diplomat said after Russian envoy MIKHAIL ULYANOV and the talks' coordinator, ENRIQUE MORA of the European Union, spoke on Tuesday. Officials have been hinting for weeks that talks were nearing a critical final stage. Now it looks like the Russian hurdle will prevent negotiations from wrapping up this week, even as some Western officials assured a deal would soon be reached to bring the U.S. back into the accord it left four years ago. 2 DETAINED AMERICANS IN VENEZUELA RETURN HOME: Two U.S. citizens, GUSTAVO CARDENAS and JORGE FERNANDEZ, were successfully freed from prison in Venezuela and are now home. “Cardenas was arrested in 2017 as part of the so-called CITGO-6, and he has endured five years of hardship and imprisonment at the hands of an unjust system. Fernandez was arrested last year on spurious charges,” Biden said in a Tuesday night statement. Frosty relations between Washington and Caracas are thawing now that the U.S. wants to access more of Venezuela’s oil following the ban on Russian energy imports. Venezuelan President NICOLÁS MADURO, who the Trump administration openly tried to overthrow, has signaled an openness to improving ties with the U.S. Freeing Cardenas and Fernandez, after consistent pressure put on by U.S. officials in negotiations, is the biggest sign yet of Maduro’s sincerity. Biden, however, will face a severe backlash for considering a renewed relationship with the brutal dictator, led by Senate Foreign Relations Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.). Meanwhile, Biden spoke Tuesday with the family of TREVOR REED, the former U.S. Marine detained in Russia. “The president called JOEY and PAULA REED to reiterate his commitment to do everything he can to bring their son home, to staying in close touch with them through his national security team, and to finding a time to meet in person,” a White House official said. BREAKING: CONSERVATIVE WINS SOUTH KOREA’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: YOON SUK-YEOL will be South Korea’s next president after the conservative won a tight race against the governing party’s candidate LEE JAE-MYUNG.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Zeroed in on affordability.
The F-35 team is working together across government and industry for greater affordability. Lockheed Martin invested $400 million, driving a 44 percent reduction in our share of cost per flight hour. Another 40 percent reduction is forecasted. Learn more. | | | IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and our new fellow @JGedeon1.
| | | ‘IT’S A NEW REALITY’: Our own EUGENE DANIELS spoke with some Ukrainian refugees who fled the bombs dropping on their country. One of them was IRYNA FEDORIV, who lived just outside of Kyiv. She packed herself and five other family members into a car as they made their way to Poland on backroads to avoid the violence in cities. “It took three days to cross the border,” Iryna said. “You cannot warm your car because you don’t have enough petrol to move. We moved three meters and we stopped the car. Thank God, we had blankets so we could warm our children.” It was the first time, Iryna said, that her children took food for free — a small, early indication of what the life of a refugee would entail. “It’s a new reality [and it’s hard] to explain to your children,” she said, revealing a sense of resignation that her world had been irrevocably changed in a matter of days. Daniels also interviewed EKATERINA OSADCHUCK, who goes by Katya. She and her son lived near a military building, so they both packed a couple of bags: Winter clothes, important documents and pictures of her son’s childhood in Kyiv. She left behind her summer clothes — a bit of hope that she will be back by then. Over the course of 27 hours, Katya drove her son and three friends to Uzhgorod, a city in western Ukraine. It was a place to get some rest. It also gave her time to celebrate her son’s 14th birthday; they sat in a restaurant booth with a slice of cheesecake and a tea candle she’d procured from the owner. After he blew out his candle, they sat in disbelief, knowing it could be days, if they were lucky, before they reached their final destination: her best friend Jenya’s home in Basel, Switzerland. You can read these and other stories in Daniels' piece.
| | | SECRET U.S. MISSION TO SECURE UKRAINE’S CYBERDEFENSES: American soldiers, contractors, and private sector employees fanned out across Ukraine in October and November to prepare Kyiv for impending cyberwar with Russia. “People familiar with the operation described an urgency in the hunt for hidden malware, the kind which Russia could have planted, then left dormant in preparation to launch a devastating cyber attack alongside a more conventional ground invasion,” The Financial Times’ MEHUL SRIVASTAVA, MADHUMITA MURGIA and HANNAH MURPHY reported. “In the Ukrainian Railways, the team of American soldiers and civilians found and cleaned up one particularly pernicious type of malware, which cyber security experts dub ‘wiperware’ — disabling entire computer networks simply by deleting crucial files on command. In just the first 10 days of the Russian invasion, nearly 1mn Ukrainian civilians escaped to safety on the rail network. If the malware had remained undiscovered and was triggered, ‘it could have been catastrophic,’ said a Ukrainian official familiar with the issue,” they wrote. Years of cyber assistance to Ukraine — and the rush to provide some more in the months before the invasion — may help explain why Russia has failed to take much of the country’s infrastructure offline. DMITRI ALPEROVITCH, a cybersecurity expert and chair of the Silverado Policy Accelerator, questioned the premise of the piece. “If such magic capability existed, wouldn’t you think we would use it here at home?” he tweeted.
| | | AIR FORCE READY TO SEND F-16 FIGHTERS TO POLAND: Air Combat Command chief Gen. MARK KELLY said the Air Force is prepared to deliver F-16s to Poland if asked to do so by the Biden administration as part of a larger deal to help Ukraine defend against Russia, per our own LEE HUDSON (for Pros!). “We do not have a lack of F-16s, whether it be in our reserve, guard or active-duty” units, said Kelly, the general in charge of equipping the Air Force with combat aircraft. The service has more than 1,000 F-16s. Kelly cautioned there are roughly six other steps that must happen before the U.S. can send F-16s to Poland. But “trust me, we will be able to execute,” he said. U.S. officials have told NatSec Daily it would take “months” to execute, as Kelly said. Kelly’s remarks came hours after the Pentagon deemed untenable an offer by Poland to transfer 28 MiG-29 fighters to the U.S. that could then be handed over to Ukrainian pilots fighting off the Russian invasion.
| | | |   | | | | | | DEFENSE DEALT $782B IN SPENDING DEAL: A $1.5 trillion package to fund the government into the fall, unveiled this morning by top congressional lawmakers, would boost military funding by roughly $29 billion more than the Biden administration sought for defense — and beyond even the increases Congress endorsed late last year, reports our own CONNOR O’BRIEN (for Pros!). The $782 billion for national defense — which includes $743 billion specifically for the Pentagon — is seen as a win for defense hawks who have pushed for months to supersize the White House’s request. The measure also includes nearly $14 billion in emergency aid for Ukraine. The spending deal would add $4 billion above what lawmakers approved in the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which saw Congress advocate for a roughly $25 billion increase to Biden’s defense plans to $778 billion.
| | | FAST FOOD LEAVING RUSSIA FAST: Overnight the dining options for Russia got a whole lot less Western. McDonald’s and Starbucks are closing their restaurants all throughout the country, and Coca-Cola is suspending its local operations, CNN’s DANIELLE WIENER-BRONNER reported. PepsiCo is also pulling some of its products. The McDonald’s closure is a big move. There were 847 restaurants in Russia at the end of last year, which in total employed roughly 62,000 people. Those locations, including the 108 restaurants in Ukraine, accounted for 9 percent of McDonald’s annual revenue. “In the thirty-plus years that McDonald's has operated in Russia, we've become an essential part of the 850 communities in which we operate," CEO Chris Kempczinski said in a statement. "At the same time, our values mean we cannot ignore the needless human suffering unfolding in Ukraine." Some worry that these and other decisions by fast-food companies will lead not only to economic woes for the people losing their jobs, but also increase hunger in Russia. "I feel very strongly that people should be given the opportunity to purchase a variety of foods at different price points," FARRYL BERTMANN, a lecturer on nutrition at the University of Vermont, told CNN. "That can only be successfully done if access is there."
| | | — SARAH AL-HUSSEINI is now Google’s head of government affairs and public policy for Saudi Arabia. She previously served in Saudi Arabia’s United Nations mission and in the country’s Ministry of Tourism. — DINA POWELL MCCORMICK has been named by House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY to the Middle East Partnership for Peace Advisory Board. — PAUL ROSEN has been nominated to serve as assistant Treasury secretary for investment security. He is a partner at the law firm Crowell & Moring, where he co-chairs the firm’s national security practice.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Zeroed in on affordability.
Lockheed Martin ingenuity is fully invested in reducing acquisition and life cycle costs to affordably deliver unrivaled capability. Learn more. | | | | | | — TYSON WETZEL and BARRY PAVEL, The Atlantic Council: “What Are the Risks and Benefits of US/NATO Military Options in Ukraine? Our Strategic Risk Calculator Has Answers.” — JOHN CORNYN, The Houston Chronicle: “Opinion: Counter Russia With an All-of-the-Above Energy Strategy in Texas and Across America” — ARYN BAKER, Time: “Ukraine’s Conflict Has Rippled All the Way to the Arctic Circle”
| | | — The Peterson Institute for International Economics, 8 a.m.: “Discussion With Oleg Ustenko, Ukraine's Chief Economic Advisor, on Sanctions and More — with JACOB FUNK KIRKEGAARD” — The Air Force Department’s Office of Diversity and Inclusion, 9 a.m.: “ 2022 Women’s Air and Space Power Symposium — with GINA ORTIZ JONES, PAT MULCAHY and MARY O’BRIEN” — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9 a.m.: “China Goes Local: How Chinese Players Engage Outside National Capitals — with EVAN A. FEIGENBAUM, XUE GONG, CINTIA QUILICONI, MUHAMMAD TAYYAB SAFDAR and FRANCISCO URDINEZ” — The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 9 a.m.: “ 4th Annual Security Challenges in Latin America Forum: Security, Defense, and Gender in Latin America” — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: The Posture of United States Indo-Pacific Command and United States Forces Korea — with JOHN AQUILINO and PAUL LACAMERA” — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 9:30 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Examining U.S. Security Cooperation and Assistance — with MARA KARLIN and JESSICA LEWIS” — Senate Intelligence Committee, 10 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Worldwide Threats” — Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 10:15 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Nominations — with DANA K. BILYEU, KRISTA A. BOYD, LEONA M. BRIDGES, MICHAEL F. GERBER, STACIE OLIVARES and JAVIER E. SAADE” — The Air Force Association's Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 10:30 a.m.: “Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Forum — with MATTHEW KROENIG and BARRY PAVEL” — Billington CyberSecurity, 12 p.m.: “DHS Cyber Priorities: One Year After President Biden’s Cybersecurity Executive Order — ERIC GOLDSTEIN and MATTHEW MCFADDEN” — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 12 p.m.: “ Political Violence and Our Democratic Future — with SCOTT GATES, RACHEL KLEINFELD and BARBARA WALTER” — The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: “ Implications of the Ukrainian War for the Indo-Pacific — with YASUHIRO MATSUDA” — The Vandenberg Coalition, 12 p.m.: “ The Future of Conservative Foreign Policy — with NADIA SCHADLOW” — The Wilson Center, 12 p.m.: “Roadmap at One: Progress Report on a Renewed U.S.-Canada Partnership — with DAVID COHEN and KIRSTEN HILLMAN” — The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 12:30 p.m.: “ The War to Destroy a State: Russia’s Invasion and Ukraine’s Response — with SERGIY KUDELIA” — New America, 1 p.m.: “Equity and Racial Justice: Where Do They Fit in a National Security Strategy? — with MARI FAINES, THEODORE JOHNSON, ILEANA VALLE and CAROLYN WASHINGTON” — The American Constitution Society for Law and Policy, 2 p.m.: “Ukraine: Democracy’s Moment of Truth — with RUSS FEINGOLD, OONA HATHAWAY, DEBRA PERLIN and ADAM SMITH” — The National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, 3 p.m.: “ Can Lebanon Be Saved? — with JEAN ABINADER, EDWARD GABRIEL and MONA YACOUBIAN” — The Atlantic Council, 3:30 p.m.: “2022 Christopher J. Makins Lecture: A Conversation With UK Foreign Secretary LIZ TRUSS — with FREDERICK KEMPE and KAREN PIERCE” — The Center for a New American Security, 5:30 p.m.: “Fireside Chat with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State JUNG PAK — with FRANK AUM , JOSHUA FITT, DUYEON KIM, JOHN PARK and JACOB STOKES” — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 7 p.m.: “ South Korea’s National Security Policy After the 2022 Election — with TOBY DALTON, EVAN A. FEIGENBAUM, KARL FRIEDHOFF, LAMI KIM and CHUNG MIN LEE”
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