Russia ‘is trying to salvage a military fiasco’

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Tuesday Mar 29,2022 08:26 pm

Mar 29, 2022

By Alexander Ward, Jonathan Lemire and Quint Forgey

A Russian soldier points a gun from a Russian military truck as it drives through an undisclosed location in Ukraine.

In this photo taken from video released by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Thursday, March 3, 2022, a Russian soldier points a gun from a Russian military truck as it drives through an undisclosed location in Ukraine. | Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP

With help from Paul McLeary

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The White House today reacted with deep skepticism to Russia’s promise to reduce violence in Ukraine as a means of paving the way for possible peace talks, with government officials suggesting that the Kremlin was simply redirecting, not ending, its invasion.

Negotiations in Istanbul between Ukrainian and Russian officials seemed to yield some progress to a possible meeting between Ukraine’s VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY and Russia’s VLADIMIR PUTIN. As for a direct discussion between Putin and President JOE BIDEN himself, White House officials firmly underscored that Moscow would need to take more convincing steps toward curtailing the war before any such talk would take place, according to two administration officials not authorized to speak publicly about private deliberations.

The reaction from the White House was a veritable dousing of cold water on what, hours earlier, seemed like one of the first, sincere potential diplomatic breakthroughs more than a month into the bloody conflict. At the talks in Turkey, both Ukrainian and Russian sides said moves were being made toward a leaders’ summit, as Kyiv for the first time signaled a willingness to hold negotiations over territory seized by Moscow. Russian Deputy Defense Minister ALEXANDER FOMIN said his military planned to “fundamentally cut back” military activity near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and another northern city in an effort “to increase trust” around the peace talks.

But Biden administration officials cautioned that while they had seen a recent reduction in Russian attacks around Kyiv and Chernihiv, violence had continued unabated and even grown elsewhere, particularly in southern and eastern Ukraine. Moreover, the officials said that the pause near Kyiv may be a ruse to resupply troops and that the violence could ramp up at any time.

“I've not seen anything to suggest that this is moving forward in an effective way because we have not seen signs of real seriousness" from Russia, said Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN at a press conference in Morocco.

More vitally, even if Russia did silence its guns near the Ukrainian capital, it still very much was conducting an active assault on other regions — which would inherently undermine any sort of cease-fire, according to the U.S. officials.

Feeding the new push for diplomacy has been the growing recognition that the Russian invasion has badly stalled, with Moscow taking huge personnel and equipment losses. Biden aides, buoyed by Ukraine’s military campaign to date, nevertheless scoffed at the suggestion that Putin was ending the war, instead believing he likely was temporarily focusing on a more winnable region, the officials said. The Donbas region — parts of which have been held by Kremlin-backed separatist forces since 2014 — appeared to be a particular target.

Putin’s campaign has gone so unexpectedly poorly that U.S. officials have begun reviewing their own intelligence assessments to determine how they could have so badly misjudged the strength of the Russian military. Despite pouring billions of dollars into modernizing Russia’s military, Putin’s forces have been saddled with poor equipment, communications and morale — all leading to, so far, a stalemate against a much smaller and overmatched foe.

To that point, one U.S. official bluntly said: “The Russians really fucked this up.”

Experts agreed. “It's a huge retreat from Putin's initial war aims,” said JEFFREY EDMONDS, former Russia director on BARACK OBAMA's National Security Council and now adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security think tank. “This is a huge defeat to Putin's maximalist initial goals. The Russian leadership is trying to salvage a military fiasco.”

Read the entirety of Alex and JONATHAN LEMIRE’s piece here.

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The Inbox

SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism.

War in Ukraine:

— Since the war began on Feb. 24, Russia has lost around 17,200 personnel, 597 tanks, 1,710 armored combat vehicles, 303 artillery systems, 96 multiple-launch rocket systems, 127 warplanes, 129 helicopters, seven ships and 71 drones ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense)

— “The withdrawal of certain units of the armed forces of the Russian Federation from the territory of Kyiv and Chernihiv oblasts is noted. At the same time, there is a high risk of the Russian occupiers attacking military and civilian infrastructure.” ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense)

— In the Donetsk area, Russia has “activated assault actions in most directions.” ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense)

— “Ukrainian Forces have continued to conduct localised counter attacks to the north west of Kyiv - including at Irpen, Bucha and Hostomel. These attacks have had some success and the Russians have been pushed back from a number of positions. However, Russia still poses a significant threat to the city through their strike capability. Russian Forces have maintained their offensive on Mariupul with continuous heavy shelling of the city, however the centre of the city remains under Ukrainian control. Elsewhere, Russian Forces are maintaining blocking positions while attempting to reorganise and reset their forces.” ( U.K. Ministry of Defense)

A map of Russian forces positions as of 1400 March 29 is pictured.

Russian forces positions as of 1400 March 29. | Janes

Global Response:

— Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands and Czech Republic: These four countries collectively expelled 43 Russian diplomats over allegations of spying and unlawful influence activities. They have two weeks to leave the European nations.

— U.S.: Gen. TOD WOLTERS, head of U.S. European Command and NATO’s supreme allied commander, said the U.S. may need to put more American service members in Europe.

— U.S.: A correction: On Monday, we made an error in saying that the six Growlers the U.S. is sending to Germany came from Washington, D.C., not Washington state. We regret the error and thank Rep. RICK LARSEN (D-Wash.), who represents the district where the Growlers came from, for pointing out our oversight.

Headlines:

— The Washington Post: “Russia has killed civilians in Ukraine. Kyiv’s defense tactics add to the danger.”

— The New York Times: “ A Brutal Russian Playbook Reapplied in Ukraine”

— Institute for the Study of War: “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment”

RUSSIA CLAIMS IT WILL CUT BACK KYIV ATTACKS: After negotiations today between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul — the two sides’ first round of face-to-face peace talks in three weeks — Russian Deputy Defense Minister Fomin said Moscow would dramatically reduce its military offensive around Kyiv, per POLITICO’s VICTOR JACK.

“The decision has been taken to fundamentally cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernihiv,” Fomin said. This would “increase mutual trust for future negotiations” in order “to agree and sign a peace deal with Ukraine,” he added.

Fomin’s remarks come after Colonel General SERGEI RUDSKOY , first deputy chief of Russia's General Staff, said Friday that “the main tasks of the first stage” of Russia’s invasion “have been completed,” and that Russian forces would focus their efforts in the breakaway Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.

UKRAINE OFFERS NEUTRALITY: Ukraine proposed a neutral status during peace talks with Russia in Turkey, an offer with hopes of reaching a cease-fire to end the war Moscow started.

“After the talks in Istanbul, Ukrainian negotiators said that their key demands included guarantees for Ukraine’s security from the U.S., the U.K., France, Turkey, Germany, Canada, Poland and Israel,” per The Wall Street Journal’s JAMES MARSON, YAROSLAV TROFIMOV, and JARED MALSIN.

“This is the system we would like to build the future of Ukraine on,” Ukrainian negotiator DAVID ARAKHAMIA told reporters after
the talks. “We want an international mechanism of security guarantees where guarantor countries will act in a similar way to NATO’s article number five.”

The Ukrainian position has moved away from demanding accession to NATO and softened to its current stance, clearly in an effort to compromise with Russia to stop the fighting. But few in Ukraine and elsewhere in the West believe Russia is negotiating in good faith.

EUCOM SAYS U.S. NOT TRAINING UKRAINIANS IN POLAND: Last night, Alex and PAUL McLEARY reported on Biden seeming to reveal the U.S. was training Ukrainian troops in Poland — potentially disclosing more direct U.S. assistance to help Ukrainians fight and kill Russians.

But Gen. Wolters said that’s not the case today. "I do not believe that we are in the process of currently training military forces from Ukraine in Poland,” he told the Senate Armed Services Committee today. “There are liaisons that are there that are being given advice, and that's different than I think you're referring to with respect to training."

In other words, American service members are verbally helping the Ukrainians, but that’s far different than putting them through drills. If that’s the case, it seems that the president once again made a gaffe, exaggerating the level of direct U.S. military support for Ukraine once the war began.

TOP TREASURY OFFICIAL PREVIEWS SUPPLY CHAIN SANCTIONS: Deputy Treasury Secretary WALLY ADEYEMO, speaking today in London, warned that a forthcoming round of Western sanctions against Russia will target supply chains and undermine “the Kremlin’s ability to operate its war machine,” per Reuters.

“In addition to sanctioning companies in sectors that enable the Kremlin’s malign activities, we also plan to take actions to disrupt their critical supply chains,” Adeyemo said. The goal of the measures — expected to also punish alternative military suppliers used by Russia — “is to use an integrated approach that includes export controls which will bite over time and sanctions that will bite immediately,” he said.

Adeyemo went on to predict that nations such as China and India “are going to remain part of” the global financial system amid Russia’s invasion, rather than economically disengage with the West. “The system has adapted and moulded to members that have come along to create huge reductions in poverty, and not just Western countries,” he said, adding that “the benefits of the system far outweigh the risks.”

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Flashpoints

CHINA ENTERS THE CHAT: U.S. Indo-Pacific Command chief Adm. JOHN AQUILINO has sent Congress a whopping $76 billion, five-year plan that calls for new airfields and training ranges spread across the Pacific, along with missile defense systems, long-range precision weapons, and other new capabilities to confront China.

An executive summary of the plan, obtained by McLeary (for Pros!), calls for $9 billion in fiscal 2023, with another $66.9 billion spread over the next four years.

The biggest slice of the request is $42.4 billion aimed at building a new air and missile defense system for Guam, along with deploying “electronic warfare, space, cyber, and over-the-horizon radar” systems across the region.

The document also asks for $25 billion to build new airfields and repair existing airstrips that would allow U.S. forces to spread out from megabases in places such as Guam and Okinawa, which provide juicy targets to long-range Chinese weapons. These sites would also provide new training ranges for the U.S. and its allies, and include facilities to forward-position equipment.

EUROPE TO DEFEND SWEDEN? German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ suggested the European Union would come to Sweden’s defense if Russia attacked the non-NATO country, POLITICO’s HANS VON DER BURCHARD reported.

Speaking at a joint press conference with Swedish Prime Minister MAGDALENA ANDERSSON in Berlin, Scholz noted that the EU had built a mutual assistance clause into its core treaty. He said that clause would be “taken very seriously” if it came to an attack against Sweden. “When it comes down to it, it can be relied upon,” Scholz added.

Sweden and Finland, both in the European Union, say that the bloc is also defensive and that members should assist each other in their moment of need.

“Scholz’s remarks indicated Berlin agrees with that assessment,” per von der Burchard. “However, how much the EU could do to defend Sweden is open to question, given that — unlike NATO — it does not include the military superpower United States, or the United Kingdom, one of the Continent’s few military heavyweights.”

RUSSIA SAYS U.S. LAUNCHED CYBERATTACK. U.S. DENIES: The Russian Foreign Ministry claimed on its website that the U.S. launched a cyberattack on Russia’s critical infrastructure — a claim the Biden administration firmly denies.

“The United States and its satellites are waging a large-scale cyberattack against Russia. Advanced information and communication technologies are being used almost every day to attack government agencies, media outlets, critical infrastructure and vital facilities,” the ministry said. “The unprecedented scale of these attacks and their close coordination clearly indicate that the cyberwar waged against Russia by Ukrainian special ICT operations centres trained by US and other NATO experts is being reinforced with anonymous hackers and trolls acting on orders from the Kiev regime’s Western mentors.”

But EMILY HORNE, the NSC’s spokesperson, said that’s just not true. "The United States Government has not engaged in the activity described by Russia. Moscow’s statements to the contrary amount to disinformation," she told The Hill’s BRAD DRESS.

There’s no evidence to support Russia’s claim, and the Kremlin is known for pushing false narratives. Russia also often accuses adversaries of doing something right before it’s about to do it. Last week, Biden said cyberattacks likely emanating from Russia were “coming.”

The Complex

BOARD GAMES: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) reported that Aerojet Rocketdyne CEO EILEEN DRAKE on Monday proposed former Air Force Secretary DEBORAH LEE JAMES and three others as replacements for WARREN LICHTENSTEIN and his slate of directors on the company’s board.

In an SEC filing, Drake alleges Lichtenstein violated his fiduciary duties by launching a proxy contest for control of the company while Aerojet’s now-defunct merger with Lockheed Martin was pending.

Drake’s slate for the board also includes Gail Baker, a former Collins Aerospace executive; MARION BLAKEY, former head of Rolls-Royce North America and the Aerospace Industries Association; and former NASA Administrator CHARLIE BOLDEN.

Lichtenstein’s list includes Heidi Wood , an executive vice president for business development at CAE; AIMEE NELSON, a “finance professional”; and JOANNE MAGUIRE, a former executive vice president leading Lockheed Martin’s space business.

Both factions will seek to install their picks at the upcoming annual shareholders meeting, which has not yet been scheduled.

Oh, the drama!

On the Hill

RAND STALLS RUSSIA TRADE BILL: Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) is yet again frustrating his fellow Republicans’ foreign policy messaging, per our own BURGESS EVERETT and ANDREW DESIDERIO — this time by single-handedly delaying a revocation of normal trade relations with Moscow, thereby slowing efforts to further incapacitate Russia’s economy.

Paul is refusing to allow a quick vote on the bill absent a deal to narrow presidential power to enact sanctions, even though leaders in both parties have spurned that request. On Monday, Republicans aired long-building exasperation with their Kentucky colleague; Senate Minority Whip JOHN THUNE (R-S.D.) simply threw up his arms when asked if there was anything GOP leaders could do to move him.

But some Republicans instead criticized Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER’s handling of the trade bill and dismissed suggestions that Paul’s holdup undermined their unity. Schumer could have allocated enough floor time to overcome Paul’s objections rather than counting on a fast-tracked process that requires unanimous support, they pointed out.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– COST OF WAR ACT: A bipartisan trio is set to unveil the “Cost of War Act,” which would require the Pentagon to reveal the cost per taxpayer of any U.S. military operation since 9/11.

The legislation, introduced today by Reps. NIKEMA WILLIAMS (D-Ga.), PETER MEIJER (R-Mich.) and SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.) — modernizes a measure first put forward by the late Rep. JOHN LEWIS (D-Ga.).

“With the rising costs Americans face right now, we owe our constituents clear information on government spending. When we invest in things like schools and the infrastructure we use daily, we feel the impacts in our communities. But it’s much harder to grasp the costs and impacts of our military spending,” Williams said in a statement.

“This is a critical step forward in our bipartisan effort to restore congressional authority and oversight on matters of national security,” Meijer added.

The Cost of War Act is supported by the NAACP and progressive groups like Just Foreign Policy, VoteVets and Foreign Policy for America.

Broadsides

ROMNEY WARNS TRUMP COULD TRIGGER NATO REALIGNMENT: Sen. MITT ROMNEY (R-Utah) issued more dire predictions about the foreign policy dangers posed by a potential second DONALD TRUMP term — telling CNN Plus’ KASIE HUNT that if the former president is elected again in 2024, it may result in a major transformation of NATO.

Trump’s “America First” brand of diplomacy “frightens” fellow NATO members, Romney said, “and they wonder: Are we committed to NATO and to our mutual defense, or are we all going to go off on our own?” Trump threatened to abandon the alliance as president if other members didn’t meet certain military spending levels.

If Trump were to return to the White House now, “I think it would represent a pretty dramatic departure for the world,” Romney said. NATO allies “would say that they have to really rethink their own national security and the extent to which they want to be allied with us and instead be allied with someone else.”

“I’ve had conversations with leaders of other nations now, members of NATO,” Romney said, “and they raise this question: We’re happy to see you committed to our mutual defense, but we don’t know whether you’re just committed short-term or whether this is a long-term and permanent commitment. I think it’s long-term and permanent.”

PROGRESSIVES BASH PENTAGON BUDGET: In a statement on Biden’s proposed FY 2023 budget , the Congressional Progressive Caucus made clear it thinks a rise in defense spending — to $813 billion — is no bueno.

“It is simply unacceptable that after the conclusion of our longest war and during a period of Democratic control of both chambers of Congress, the President is proposing record high military spending,” the caucus said. “As Pentagon spending has exploded, the federal government has been forced to pinch pennies for decades when it comes to investments in working families.”

Biden is now deep in one of Washington, D.C.’s most classic traps: The right thinks the president isn’t proposing enough for defense, while the left thinks he wants to spend too much. The president has been in town long enough to know that many will be angry no matter what he budgets.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Transitions

— VIPIN NARANG has been sworn in as principal deputy assistant secretary of Defense for space policy. He is taking a public service leave from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where he serves as the Frank Stanton professor of nuclear security and political science.

—MICHAEL GREEN has been appointed as the new CEO of Sydney-based United States Studies Centre. Previously, he was the senior vice president for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

—JAYSON BROWDER and MIKE SEXTON have joined Third Way’s national security program as senior policy advisers. Browder was previously the principal national security adviser to former Rep. BETO O’ROURKE (R-Texas) and Sexton was founder of the cyber program at the Middle East Institute.

What to Read

— MADELEINE ALBRIGHT, The Washington Post: “Resilience of spirit, more than intellect, is the key to life”

— FRED KAPLAN, Slate: “ The Gaffe Heard Round the World”

— L. GORDON CROVITZ, POLITICO Magazine: “Opinion: U.S. Law Holds a Tool to Counter Putin’s Propaganda. But Officials Aren’t Using It.”

Tomorrow Today

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: “The North Korean Missile Threat: Expert Roundtable — with JOSEPH S. BERMUDEZ JR., VICTOR CHA, MARKUS GARLAUSKAS, ANKIT PANDA and SUE MI TERRY”

— The Middle East Institute, 9:30 a.m.: “Impacts of Russia/Ukraine Crisis on North Africa’s Food and Energy Security — with ROBERTA GATTI, GEOFF PORTER, MICHAEL TANCHUM and INTISSAR FAKIR”

— House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: “ Full Committee Hearing: National Security Challenges and U.S. Military Activity in Europe — with CELESTE WALLANDER and TOD WOLTERS”

— Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 11 a.m.: “Business Meeting”

— New America, 12:30 p.m.: “Cronkite Global Week: Conversations Surrounding Global Challenges — with SUMMIA TORA, FAHIM ABED, ALI ADILI and CANDACE RONDEAUX”

— The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 12:30 p.m.: “U.S. Cyberspace Solarium Commission: Accomplishments and Next Steps for U.S. Cyber Policy — with CHRIS INGLIS, JAMES LANGEVIN and MARK MONTGOMERY”

— The Air Force Association, 1 p.m.: “Air and Space Warfighters in Action: Lt. Gen. DAVID NAHOM and Lt. Gen. WILLIAM LIQUORI”

— The Hill, 1 p.m.: “ Future of Defense Summit — with JAMES CLAPPER, STEVE CLEMONS, PAULA DOBRIANSKY, ROBERT GATES, KATHLEEN H. HICKS, WESLEY D. KREMER, MIKE ROGERS, REXON RYU, ADAM SMITH, STEFANIE TOMPKINS, CARLOS DEL TORO and CHRISTINE WORMUTH”

— House Armed Services Committee, 2 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Patient Safety and Quality of Care in the Military Health System — with DEZ DEL BARBA, R. SCOTT DINGLE, BRUCE L. GILLINGHAM, DERRICK LUCKEY, ROBERT I. MILLER, RONALD J. PLACE and SHARON SILAS”

— House Foreign Affairs Committee, 2 p.m.: “ Subcommittee Hearing: The Ukraine Crisis: Implications for U.S. Policy in the Indo-Pacific — with DAN BLUMENTHAL, CHARLES EDEL, BONNY LIN and TANVI MADAN”

— House Homeland Security Committee, 2 p.m.: “ Full Committee Hearing: Mobilizing Our Cyber Defenses: Securing Critical Infrastructure Against Russian Cyber Threats — with ADAM MEYERS, KEVIN M. MORLEY, STEVE SILBERSTEIN and AMIT YORAN”

— House Veterans’ Affairs Committee, 2 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: Legislative Hearing”

— Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 2 p.m.: “Subcommittee Hearing: The Assault on Freedom of Expression in Asia — with SARAH COOK, MARIA RESSA and JOEY SIU”

— The Institute of World Politics, 4:30 p.m.: “North Korea: The Continuous and Growing Threat — with JOHN SANO”

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