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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
Members of the 127th Territorial Defense Force brigade search vehicles after curfew on April 04, 2022 in Kharkiv, Ukraine. | Chris McGrath/Getty Images | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint As Russian forces congregate in Ukraine’s Eastern Donbas region, they’re likely to face many of the same problems they’ve encountered since the war began: A stiff military and popular resistance that will make it hard to seize and hold territory. Russia had the momentum during the first stage of the invasion . But it squandered that numerical advantage in equipment and personnel through poor planning, inadequate logistics and a lack of clear purpose among Russian fighters. The question now is if the renewed focus on the Donbas and a new general appointed to command the Kremlin’s troops in Ukraine — Gen. ALEXANDER DVORNIKOV — can change its fortunes. Officials in the U.S. and Europe, as well as experts we’ve spoken to in recent days, are mixed on that possibility. The problems facing Russia’s military — poor morale, a lack of precision-guided missiles, conscript reserves — are hard to overcome. And the Ukrainians, bolstered by deliveries of Western weapons, are already on the counteroffensive. But few deny that Russia could make significant gains if it gets its act together. The new push into the Donbas has yet to begin, a senior U.S. defense official told reporters Monday morning, though the Russians “are working to reinforce their capabilities and to add” to their regional forces that have been fighting Ukrainian soldiers there for the last eight years. The expectation is that Russia will conduct a type of pincer movement, sending troops from the north and south to surround the region, said MASON CLARK , the lead Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. But so far it’s been a “one-pincer pincer movement,” he said, as troops are headed southward from Kharkiv but the southern forces have yet to make their way north and are still trying to overtake Mariupol. He expects some troops to stay behind to hold the city. Once Russia amasses its forces, though, U.S. officials don’t believe Dvornikov will make a big difference on the battlefield. “What we have learned in the first several weeks of this war is that Ukraine will never be subjugated to Russia. It doesn't matter which general President [VLADIMIR] PUTIN tries to appoint,” U.S. national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “This general will just be another author of crimes and brutality against Ukrainian civilians.” The Russians could fully capture the areas around the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk along with other regional territory, experts said. But their issue will be holding on to those areas with fewer troops and equipment as the Ukrainians fiercely push back. The nearly 135,000 conscripts brought into Russia’s army last week won’t be ready until July or August at the earliest, after which they will have had only minimal training. That could bode a bloody and protracted fight for weeks, potentially bringing both Moscow and Kyiv to the negotiating table. Some believe the Russians are capable of fixing their early mistakes. WESLEY CLARK , NATO’s supreme allied commander Europe from 1997 to 2000, told NatSec Daily “if they organize at the top, the artillery barrages will be massive and devastating. The tanks and infantry will just ‘mop up,’” he said, noting “there will be heavy attrition on both sides. This is the ‘gnawing through’ process.” The terrain also favors Russia. As The Washington Post’s LIZ SLY and DAN LAMOTHE pointed out over the weekend, “[t]he wide open spaces will make it harder for the Ukrainians to run guerrilla operations as they did in the forests of the north and west and play to Russia’s ability to muster large mechanized formations of tanks and armored vehicles.” Most signs point to the new phase in the war advantaging Russia. But that was also the consensus before the invasion — and look how that turned out.
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War in Ukraine: — Since the war began on Feb. 24, Russia has lost roughly 19,500 personnel, 725 tanks, 1,923 armored combat vehicles, 347 artillery systems, 111 multiple-launch rocket systems, 154 warplanes, 137 helicopters, seven ships and 119 drones. (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “Russian troops will move to even larger operations in the east of our state. They can use even more missiles against us, even more air bombs. But we are preparing for their actions. We will respond. We will be even more active in providing Ukraine with weapons. We will be more active in the international arena. We will be even more active in the information field.” (Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY) — “Nine humanitarian corridors have been agreed in Ukraine to evacuate people from settlements affected by Russia’s armed aggression in Zaporizhia, Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.” (Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister IRYNA VERESHCHUK) — ”Occupation troops are trying to carry out measures of information and psychological impact on the residents of Kherson and the region,” including through the dissemination of “newsletters.” ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “In order to quickly replenish the losses of units of their troops, the occupation authorities announced in Luhansk another wave of mobilization of male personnel under 65 years old. Soldiers of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation conduct raids on utility companies and factories to identify conscripts and forcibly send them to the military.” ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “Russian forces prior use of phosphorous munitions in the Donetsk Oblast raises the possibility of their future employment in Mariupol as fighting for the city intensifies. Russian shelling has continued in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, with Ukrainian forces repulsing several assaults resulting in the destruction of Russian tanks, vehicles, and artillery equipment. Russia’s continued reliance on unguided bombs decreases their ability to discriminate when targeting and conducting strikes while greatly increasing the risk of further civilian casualties.” ( U.K. Ministry of Defense) Global Response: — U.K.: Prime Minister BORIS JOHNSON announced that his government will send 120 armored vehicles and anti-ship missiles to Ukraine. While not formally stated, our own PAUL McLEARY reports that Harpoons are part of the anti-ship missile shipment. — France: France’s Foriegn Ministry announced that six Russian agents posing as diplomats are now declared persona non grata. Follow POLITICO’s tracker of who’s sending what weapons to Ukraine. Headlines: — CNN: “Nine volunteer drivers on rescue mission to Mariupol detained by Russian forces, aid group says” — NBC News: “Russia appoints general with cruel history to oversee Ukraine offensive” — The New York Times: “Bucha’s Month of Terror” SWEDEN AND FINLAND TO JOIN NATO? It’s increasingly looking like Sweden and Finland could formally join NATO as soon as this summer. A story in Britain’s The Times noted that’s when U.S. officials expect the alliance to grow from 30 to 32 members, dealing a massive blow to Russia in the process. “How can this be anything but a massive strategic blunder for Putin?” one official told the paper. Once-skeptical parties in both Nordic countries have changed their tunes since Russia’s invasion, with Sweden’s ruling party saying Monday it will review its NATO policy. A Finnish official described to us the lengthy process ahead. On Wednesday, the government will release a paper on the current security situation and ways to mitigate it. Then, Parliament will debate the paper and the government will consider members’ and the public’s views. In a recent poll, 68 percent of Finns said they supported the country joining NATO with only 12 percent against, while a local newspaper said 98 of Finland’s 200 MPs already back acceding to the alliance. By the end of June, the government will come up with a proposal for Parliament to vote on. It’s unclear what exactly will happen, but everything we’re hearing so far points only in one direction: a bigger NATO in the near future. IT'S A RUNOFF: French President EMMANUEL MACRON and far-right challenger MARINE LE PEN received the top two vote totals Sunday, locking them into an April 24 presidential runoff. It’s a rematch of the 2017 election which saw Macron trounce Le Pen, though polls this time show the vote could be a lot closer — potentially signaling a Le Pen victory. The main battle is over French living standards, as some citizens feel the economic crush from the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Macron aims to convince voters he’s the best steward for their and broader European security while Le Pen says sanctions on Russia are hurting everyday French people. “I’m here, and I’m determined to fight,” Macron said Monday in France’s economically hurt north. And later in the Burgundy region, Le Pen planned to discuss “strong, urgent decisions to protect the purchasing power of the French.” Most of the 10 candidates who lost on Sunday backed Macron against Le Pen. Conservative candidate VALÉRIE PÉCRESSE warned of “the chaos that would ensue” if Le Pen won. BIDEN TOLD MODI NOT TO INCREASE RUSSIAN OIL IMPORTS: President JOE BIDEN told Indian Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI that the U.S. doesn’t want India to increase imports of Russian energy during their virtual meeting today, a senior administration official told reporters. Though only 2 percent of India’s energy imports come from Russia, “we don't think India should accelerate or increase imports of Russian energy and the U.S. is ready to support India, remain in a conversation with India, about its diversification of imports,” the official said. The two leaders had a wide-ranging discussion, touching upon relations with China and the global food supply, where India is in a position to assist. Still, the U.S. is aware of India not fully siding with the West’s pushback on Russia, and this conversation was an opportunity for Biden and Modi to frankly exchange their thoughts on that subject. “The leaders were able to step back and have a pretty detailed and candid exchange of views,” per the official. According to the White House readout, the two leaders "committed to strengthening the U.S.-India relationship through cooperation on clean energy, technology and military cooperation" and made plans to meet in Tokyo later this spring for the Quad summit. NEW NATO MILITARY CHIEF: The U.S. is set to announce Army Gen. CHRISTOPHER CAVOLI as the new head of European Command and NATO supreme allied commander Europe, scooped The Wall Street Journal’s NANCY YOUSSEF and GORDON LUBOLD. “While Gen. Cavoli served in Afghanistan, he has spent much of his career focused on Europe. He speaks Russian, Italian and French and has served as a foreign area officer, according to his Army biography. He also served as the director of Russia on the Joint Staff, and holds two Ivy League degrees, including a master’s in Russian and East European Studies from Yale University,” they wrote. The two also reported that Army Lt. Gen. BRYAN FENTON will be tapped to lead U.S. Special Operations Command.
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| | | U.S.-MADE BOMB USED IN ERRANT STRIKE IN MALI: On Jan. 3, 2021, two French fighter jets struck a wedding in Mali — supposedly targeting terrorists — killing 22 people, including 19 civilians. The dropped bombs were made in the United States, per a new Bellingcat investigation. A report by the U.N. Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali “included pictures of the shrapnel from the bombs used in the airstrike, allowing open source researchers to identify the weapon used as a GBU-12 Paveway II laser-guided bomb manufactured by the US-company Raytheon,” Bellingcat reported, “the same type of ammunition was used in a Saudi strike that hit a wedding in Yemen in 2018.” “It remains unclear if Congress was notified by the State Department (which informs Congress on such issues) in the aftermath of the strike or if it assessed that it was not required to,” Bellingcat continued. We’ve inquired around our Hill contacts and no one can remember if they were informed, though they note this all happened a while ago and allow that memory may not be top of mind. A spokesperson for Raytheon said the company has no comment. PAKISTAN’S PM OUSTED: IMRAN KHAN is no longer Pakistan’s prime minister after he was removed from power following a no-confidence vote Sunday in Parliament. The former cricket star, who moved Islamabad further from Washington, D.C., and closer to Moscow and Beijing, is the latest Pakistani PM not to complete a full five-year term. SHAHBAZ SHARIF, the opposition leader, was voted in as the new premier. The next general election is slated for 2023, though there’s a chance it could come as early as October, and Khan is expected to run in that election again. Thus Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation, enters its latest period of political instability paired with a crumbling economy.
| | | SOCIAL POSTS AND WAR CRIMES: Gruesome images on TikTok, Telegram and other social media sites could prove useful in a war crimes case against Russia, Wired’s TOM SIMONITE reported. “Such evidence could, in the months and years ahead, be submitted to the International Criminal Court in the Netherlands, which said in February it would begin investigating alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ukraine. Cases over actions in Ukraine might also be brought at the European Court of Human Rights or in countries like Germany that prosecute certain crimes beyond their borders,” he wrote. “A deluge of TikTok and Telegram posts could vastly increase the amount of evidence of alleged Russian war crimes — but they will only aid prosecutions if judges accept such material in court.” The social media posts could open a new front in the way war crimes cases are handled. Normally, the admitted evidence includes witness testimony or official documents, among other things, not social media posts. The hope is that a more rigorous method of validating and archiving this data — to ensure it wasn’t and can’t later be manipulated — will make the evidence permissible and persuasive. “Ukraine will probably be the first time open source evidence will be tested extensively in court,” NADIA VOLKOVA, director of the Ukrainian Legal Advisory Group, told Wired.
| | | NEW STINGERS: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) reported that the Army has launched a new competition to replace the shoulder-fired Stinger anti-aircraft missile sooner than anticipated. The service initially envisioned a fly-off between competing designs in fiscal 2028. But that was before the war in Ukraine, where the weapons have proved critical in the Ukrainians’ defense. Now, the Army wants to begin manufacturing 10,000 missiles in fiscal 2027. The Army plans to award design and development contracts in fiscal 2023, followed by technology demonstrations in fiscal 2024.
| | | |   | | | EUROPE’S DEFENSE FIRMS STRUGGLING: The war in Ukraine and the pandemic have squeezed the bottom lines for European defense companies, Defense News’ VIVIENNE MACHI reported. Finnish firm Patria, for example, has seen “increased component prices and accelerated delivery schedules over the past couple of years” while “delivery times for components used to build Patria’s equipment — be it armored vehicles or defense electronic systems — have grown longer.” “On top of that, the cost of certain components, from semiconductors to armored steel, has risen over the past couple of years — both due to the lower availability of parts as well as increased transportation costs,” per Machi. The growing cost of steel has severely impacted Europe’s shipyards and shipbuilding industries. “We need to coordinate ourselves better on the demand side before making capability expenditures, avoid fragmentation, and use this new defense spending opportunity for a more collaborative approach,” European Defence Agency Chief Executive JIŘÍ ŠEDIVÝ told Machi in an email.
| | | CODEL TO GERMANY, POLAND: Four members of the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee began their trip to Germany and Poland today, led by Chair BETTY McCOLLUM (D-Minn.). The goal of the visit is “to assess the status of Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine and to hear directly from U.S. military officials on what more Congress can do to help the Ukrainian people defend themselves from Russia’s next offensive,” McCollum said in a statement. The other three members are Reps. JOHN CARTER (R-Texas), MARCY KAPTUR (D-Ohio) and STEVE WOMACK (R-Ark.). Other congressional groups are also in Europe during the recess: A delegation led by House Minority Leader KEVIN McCARTHY — including the top GOP members of the Intelligence and Foreign Affairs committees — visited Poland over the weekend. And House Majority Leader STENY HOYER, Rep. FRED UPTON (R-Mich). and Sen. ROY BLUNT (R-Mo.) are leading a group to Germany, Poland, Denmark and Greenland. The Pentagon has requested $773 billion for FY 2023 and outlined $17.8 billion worth of programs that didn’t make it into the new budget request. All these lawmakers will have a big say in how much cash DoD can splash on Ukraine in the months and years ahead.
| | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — DON’T LIFT IRGC OFF FTO LIST: 70 experts signed a letter to President Biden urging him not to remove Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the Foreign Terrorist Organizations blacklist as a condition for America’s return to the 2015 nuclear deal. “Removing the IRGC from the FTO list would threaten American lives, harm Gold Star families, and empower a terrorist organization sponsoring daily attacks against U.S. interests and allies,” the mostly right-leaning experts wrote. “Mr. President, no deal can be worth giving terrorists a green light to kill Americans, empowering a terrorist organization to harm U.S. interests and allies, or turning our backs on American victims of terrorism.” The signees — including former Sens. MARK KIRK (R-Ill.) and JOE LIEBERMAN (I-Conn.) — have long opposed the U.S. rejoining the nuclear pact and delisting the Iranian military branch. “An FTO designation isn’t symbolic; it brings far greater criminal exposure than a mere sanctions designation as well as visa restrictions on anyone affiliated with the IRGC,” said RICHARD GOLDBERG, a former National Security Council official now at the Iran deal-skeptic Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. “Rescinding the IRGC’s FTO designation would significantly widen its access to resources and to the U.S. itself at a time when the IRGC is plotting to kill former American officials, American think tankers and Iranian-American dissidents and continues sponsoring attacks against U.S. interests and allies.” The letter is another indicator of the fierce resistance the administration can expect from critics should Biden go through with the moves. They may have little to rail against: On Friday evening, The Washington Post’s DAVID IGNATIUS reported that Biden won’t remove the IRGC from the FTO list. “The onus is on Iran as to whether we have a nuclear deal. The president will stick to core principles. The Iranians know our views,” a senior administration official told Ignatius. A spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry today said that the nuclear agreement is in the “ emergency room” with its fate resting with America’s decisions. Another senior administration official told NatSec Daily “We are not going to negotiate in public. There are still gaps that have yet to close before returning to [the Iran deal]. The president has made clear he’ll do what’s in [the] best interest of U.S. security.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security.
Lockheed Martin employees and customers are bound by a common cause. Ennobled by our shared patriotism, we will do all that is necessary to protect American and allied interests. Together, we will strengthen deterrence and help ensure mission readiness today. Learn more. | | | | | | — STEVE DETTELBACH has been nominated by the president to serve as director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. He previously served as the U.S. attorney for the Northern District of Ohio. — DIRK LESKO has resigned as president of General Dynamics Bath Iron Works in Maine. ROBERT SMITH, executive vice president for marine systems, is leading the shipyard while the company searches for a new president.
| | | — YASMEEN SERHAN, The Atlantic: “The Other Threat to Democracy in Europe” — MASHA GESSEN, The New Yorker: “ The Holocaust Memorial Undone by Another War” — PAUL MOZUR, STEVEN LEE MYERS and JOHN LIU, The New York Times: “China’s Echoes of Russia’s Alternate Reality Intensify Around the World”
| | | — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9 a.m.: “China-EU Relations Amid the Ukraine Crisis — with PHILIPPE LE CORRE, PAUL HAENLE, YEO LAY HWEE and JIA QINGGUO” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: “The War in Ukraine: Geopolitical Implications for Eurasia — with LISEL HINTZ, NARGIS KASSENOVA, JEFFREY MANKOFF and OLESYA VARTANYAN” — The Stimson Center, 9:30 a.m.: “The Forum on the Arms Trade’s Annual Conference — with STEPHEN MILES, NANCY OKAIL, ANNA STAVRIANAKIS and SARAH LEAH WHITSON” — The Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: “MEI Defense Leadership Series — with BILAL Y. SAAB and MIKE WALTZ” — Foreign Policy, 12 p.m.: “ FP Live: Would Putin Use Nuclear Weapons? — with EMMA ASHFORD , MATTHEW KROENIG and SASHA POLAKOW-SURANSKY” — The Meridian International Center, 1 p.m.: “Meridian Diplomacy Forum — with LAZARUS O. AMAYO, CHARLES F. BOLDEN JR., SCOTT BUSCHMAN, JAMES P. DEHART, PAULA DOBRIANSKY and more” — The Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, 2 p.m.: “ Armed Conflict, Starvation and International Humanitarian Law — with TOM DANNENBAUM, JAMES P. MCGOVERN, CATRIONA MURDOCH and CHRISTOPHER H. SMITH” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies and the National Association for Black Engagement with Asia, 4:30 p.m.: “Can America Lead in Asia? — with TERRI BATCH, AURELIA BRAZEAL, VICTOR D. CHA, CHADWICK EASON, MATTHEW GOODMAN and more”
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