1 president, 2 days, 3 reversals

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Wednesday May 18,2022 08:28 pm
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By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey

Joe Biden delivers remarks.

President Joe Biden delivers remarks while hosting a reception to celebrate Asian American, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander Heritage Month on May 17, 2022. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

With help from Nahal Toosi and Daniel Lippman

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One president, two days, three reversals.

President JOE BIDEN spent Monday and Tuesday changing three of his predecessor’s policies, a swift shift that further puts the Democrat’s stamp on the world.

In Somalia, the U.S. will send back in about 500 troops that former President DONALD TRUMP withdrew in 2021. The goal, per new White House press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE Monday, is to help the fragile East African country defeat the al-Shabaab terrorist group “by having a small but persistent U.S. military presence.”

That same day, Biden expanded flights to Cuba and removed Trump-era restrictions on remittances . While Trump wanted to place maximum pressure on the brutal Cuban regime, the new administration believes these and others actions will both “hold the regime accountable and … support the Cuban people,” a senior administration official told reporters Monday.

As for Venezuela, Washington lifted economic sanctions placed on Caracas’ energy sector to encourage talks between President NICOLÁS MADURO, an autocrat, and the Western-backed opposition movement. That move, too, partially eroded a Trump policy designed specifically to push Maduro out of power.

It’s unclear what exactly led to this rush of changes. A senior administration official told reporters it was a “coincidence” that they came as the U.S.-led Summit of the Americas faces a boycott from some major regional powers because Biden won’t invite Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. The policy moves “have been long in the works … and are seen as completely separate from the conversation of who attends and does not attend the summit,” the official said. (Cough.)

Meanwhile, the Somalia decision seemingly came out of nowhere, though U.S. officials said the threat emanating from al-Shabaab is growing and could endanger Americans and allied nations.

We asked to speak with someone at the National Security Council about why these moves came so close together but no one was made available. Instead, we spoke to a slew of experts who offered two main theories.

First, sometimes policy reviews end around the same time. Finalizing plans to handle Latin American regimes and counterterrorism could’ve happened simultaneously, thus the congestion in getting the news out. And with Biden headed to Asia this week, it was best to release these decisions before his trip dominates the news.

The second theory is simpler: Ukraine is dominating the news, so why not push out all of these reviews simultaneously so none of them get the proper coverage while attention is diverted elsewhere? It’s cynical, but very in line with how administrations like to “throw out the trash” on Friday afternoons or amidst other big news so news organizations — like this one — don’t have much time to spend on them.

Whatever the reason, it’s worth noting that Biden has hued closely to some Trump-era foreign policies — but now he’s starting to distance himself.

 

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The Inbox

U.S. EMBASSY IN UKRAINE REOPENS: The U.S. embassy in Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, has reopened after three months of war. The administration ordered it closed before the February invasion of Ukriane. Now that the war has moved further east and the siege of Kyiv has died down, the U.S. has deemed it safe enough to resume operations.

“It will operate in a limited capacity with no consular services and Chargé KRISTINA KVIEN is on leave and wasn’t present for reopening today,” our own CHRISTOPHER MILLER reported on Twitter. “US embassy Kyiv will increase the number of diplomats and services over time, as the security situation allows.”

Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN confirmed the news shortly after the reports, tweeting “The Stars and Stripes fly again over Embassy Kyiv.”

FINLAND AND SWEDEN DELIVER NATO APPLICATIONS: NATO Secretary-General JENS STOLTENBERG said today that Finland and Sweden’s official requests to join the Western military alliance marked a “historic moment which we must seize,” per the Associated Press’ LORNE COOK .

“I warmly welcome the requests by Finland and Sweden to join NATO. You are our closest partners,” Stoltenberg said in Brussels, flanked by the Finnish and Swedish NATO ambassadors. He added: “This is a good day at a critical moment for our security.”

Applications to NATO must be weighed by its 30 member states. The alliance has said it wants to expedite the decision-making process because of the threat to Finland and Sweden from Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN.

But Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN blocked the fast-track effort, as the country’s NATO ambassador handed in a list of grievances that focused mainly on an alleged Kurdish presence in those countries. It’s unclear if Erdogan would actually block Sweden and Finland from joining the alliance over this, or if he’s leveraging the situation to extract concessions from NATO on the issue.

NEW EU BLUEPRINT FOR ABANDONING RUSSIAN ENERGY: European Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN unveiled today a €300 billion package called REPowerEU that aims to wean the European Union from Russian fossil fuels before 2030, per our own ZOSIA WANAT and AMERICA HERNANDEZ.

The package, which fleshes out a Commission master plan published in March, is based on four pillars: saving energy, substituting Russian gas with other fossil fuels, boosting green energy and financing new infrastructure like pipelines and liquefied natural gas terminals.

Since a rapid shift away from Russian energy could hurt Europe’s economies, the Commission will allow member states to temporarily extend power price controls and jointly buy natural gas. “As Russia pursues its unprovoked war in Ukraine, we must also plan for gas supply disruptions and their impact with solidarity measures and possible price interventions,” said Energy Commissioner KADRI SIMSON.

DHS DISINFO BOARD ON PAUSE: The right-wing push to stop the DHS-headquartered Disinformation Governance Board has apparently worked, with the group’s work “paused” and the fate of its chair, NINA JANKOWICZ, unclear.

“On Monday, DHS decided to shut down the board, according to multiple people with knowledge of the situation. By Tuesday morning, Jankowicz had drafted a resignation letter in response to the board’s dissolution,” The Washington Post’s TAYLOR LORENZ reported.

Related working groups have been suspended and “[t]he board could still be shut down pending a review from the Homeland Security Advisory Council.” Jankowicz resigned Wednesday morning.

Critics, mainly on the right, viewed the board as an Orwellian cabal that would decide what was true or not, with some cynically labeling it the “Ministry of Truth.” Jankowicz suffered personal attacks for her social media posts featuring song parodies and was told to remain silent during the online barrage.

That effort drowned out DHS’ attempt to ensure the public that the board was set up to counter Russian propaganda and misleading information about immigration.

Now leading Republicans are claiming victory and calling for more heads to roll. “Everyone involved in this unamerican, Orwellian scheme should be fired,” Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) tweeted Wednesday.

DHS staffers now fear the precedent this ordeal may have set. “We’re going to need another Nina down the road,” one aide told Lorenz. “And anyone who takes that position is going to be vulnerable to a disinformation campaign or attack.”

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — BLINKEN ON BUFFALO KILLINGS, DIVERSITY AT STATE: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN has unveiled the State Department’s first-ever “demographic baseline report,” our own NAHAL TOOSI has learned.

The data, Blinken told the department in an email Tuesday, offer a “comprehensive snapshot of our workplace, broken down by sex, race, ethnicity, and disability status as well as bureau, employment category and grade or rank.” In other words, department employees now have some basic statistics about what their workforce looks like in the first place.

Blinken has made improving diversity and inclusion a priority. In sharing the news about the new, internal database, the secretary mentioned the recent mass shooting in Buffalo, New York, which killed 10 people and appeared to be driven by racist hatred.

“Racism and the violence fueled by it is a horrifying rebuke to the values we champion around the world,” Blinken wrote.

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Flashpoints

‘GENUINE POSSIBILITY’ OF NORTH KOREA TEST: National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told reporters at the White House Wednesday that “Our intelligence does reflect the genuine possibility that there will be either a missile test … or a nuclear test” or both in the days during or after Biden’s Asia trip.

That confirms reports of North Korea preparing either its seventh nuclear test or a new missile launch, possibly one of its newer, more powerful ones. Any test is provocative, but doing one while Biden is in the region adds extra oomph to Pyongyang’s messaging.

RUSSIAN ADMITS TO KILLING CIVILIAN IN WAR CRIMES TRIAL: VADIM SHISHIMARIN, a 21-year-old Russian tank-unit officer, has admitted to killing an unarmed civilian — the first time a member of Moscow’s forces confessed to a war crime committed during the invasion of Ukraine.

“The prosecutor said that in late February Mr. Shishimarin and other members of his regiment were in the Sumy region and their tanks had been destroyed. As they were looking for other transportation, they stopped the car of several locals, forced them out and drove off. As they drove, a civilian approached. Mr. Shishimarin’s commanding officer told him to shoot the man, the prosecutor said. Mr. Shishimarin shot him three or four times in the head, killing him,” The Wall Street Journal’s IAN LOVETT reported.

Evidence of Russian-committed war crimes has piled up since the war started in February. But Shishimarin’s statement offers direct evidence that a violation occurred in at least one instance.

The State Department will more closely monitor Russian atrocities in Ukraine.

“The U.S. Department of State is announcing the launch of a new Conflict Observatory to capture, analyze, and make widely available evidence of Russia-perpetrated war crimes and other atrocities in Ukraine,” a spokesperson said Tuesday in a statement. “The Conflict Observatory will analyze and preserve publicly and commercially available information, including satellite imagery and information shared via social media, consistent with international legal standards, for use in ongoing and future accountability mechanisms.”

ANOTHER DIRE U.N. CLIMATE REPORT: The World Meteorological Organization, the United Nations’ weather agency, said today in its annual “State of the Global Climate” report that the world’s oceans grew to their warmest and most acidic levels on record last year, per Reuters’ JAKE SPRING.

The findings come after a different U.N. body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, reported last month that average annual greenhouse gas emissions from 2010 to 2019 were higher than in any previous decade.

In response to the latest WMO report — which found that the last seven years were the seven hottest on record — U.N. Secretary-General ANTÓNIO GUTERRES released a five-point plan focusing on the transition to renewable energies, per the Associated Press’ JAMEY KEATEN. The next U.N. climate conference is scheduled to take place in Egypt in November.

Keystrokes

‘SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS’ IN FEDERAL SECURITY: Top cyber officials told congressional lawmakers Tuesday that the U.S. has made great leaps in securing the federal government’s networks.

“We’ve made significant progress on some security measures that have immediate impact like multi-factor authentication and encryption,” said CHRISTOPHER DERUSHA, the deputy national cyber director, before a hearing of the House Homeland Security subcommittee on cybersecurity.

“We are gaining extraordinary, centralized visibility into threats and risks targeting federal agencies,” added ERIC GOLDSTEIN , the executive assistant director for cybersecurity at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.

The newfound confidence comes after Biden issued an executive order last year to boost the U.S. government’s cyber defenses. That mandate was the result of some embarrassing hacks — namely, the Russia-perpetrated SolarWinds intrusion.

The Complex

SIGAR SKEWERS AFGHANISTAN WITHDRAWAL: JOHN SOPKO, the special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction, told our own LARA SELIGMAN in a new interview that the collapse of former Afghan President ASHRAF GHANI’s government last August was “inevitable” after the Biden administration moved to withdraw the remaining U.S. troops from the country.

“There was a red light blinking on Afghanistan for years saying ‘watch out.’ … Once the morale collapsed, that was it,” Sopko said. His remarks were timed to the release today of his latest interim report, which is the first U.S. government review of how and why the Afghan security force crumbled.

Sopko’s assessment pulls no punches: The document unequivocally calls out former President DONALD TRUMP and President JOE BIDEN for yanking U.S. military and critical contractor support from Afghanistan, describing it as “the single most important factor” in the Afghan military’s collapse.

“We built that army to run on contractor support. Without it, it can’t function. Game over,” one former U.S. commander in Afghanistan told Sopko’s office, according to the report. “When the contractors pulled out, it was like we pulled all the sticks out of the Jenga pile and expected it to stay up.”

MARINES WARN AGAINST AMPHIB CUTS: The Marine Corps argues that if amphibious shrink to the lower end of the Navy’s plans, the U.S. will incur great risks in Europe and other regions, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports (for Pros!).

“Lt. Gen. KARSTEN HECKL, the deputy commandant for combat development and integration, told the House Armed Services Seapower subcommittee that dipping below the 31 amphibs the Corps has endorsed would mean sacrificing capabilities elsewhere to prioritize operations in the Pacific,” he wrote.

"The Marine Corps' concern is [in] the coming years where we go down to 24 [ships]," Heckl testified. "It is ... my assessment that at 24 we will likely be able to provide adequate capability in the Indo-Pacific and we will be forced to take risk in EUCOM, AFRICOM and CENTCOM. There's no two ways around it."

"It simply means that we will not be able to have adequate forces forward to respond in a timely manner," he told Rep. ELAINE LURIA (D-Va.).

Heckl isn’t the only one angry: “Democrats and Republicans on the top defense panels have been frustrated by the administration's shipbuilding plan as well as a fiscal 2023 budget request that aims to scrap two dozen ships,” O’Brien noted.

On the Hill

KEEPING U-233 TO THWART CHINA: Two Republican Senators have introduced a bill to stop destroying U-233 and thorium to compete with China’s military and wean America off Russian energy.

Per background materials sent by Sens. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.) and ROGER MARSHALL (R-Kan.), in the 1960s the U.S. developed thorium molten salt reactor technologies, which used uranium 233, to produce safe and clean power — but not plutonium. The U.S. shelved thorium and U-233 as it developed its nuclear arsenal.

Starting in 2001, the U.S. began to destroy the stockpile and hand over thorium technology to China in an agreement with the Chinese Academy of Sciences . Since then, China has used the tech to power its newest aircraft carrier while America brings in Russian highly enriched, low-assay uranium to power next generation reactors.

Tuberville and Marshall want to put an end to that by introducing the Thorium Energy Security Act, which if codified into law will allow the U.S. to use its U-233 stockpile, not destroy it.

“Thorium and U-233 hold the promise to produce clean, safe power and are vital to our national security. Energy will continue to be at the heart of global conflicts, so we must continue to invest in energy technology,” Tuberville said.

“The United States needs to lead on advanced nuclear reactors and not leave the future of innovative clean energy technologies in the hands of China. Preserving this valuable national resource is the first step on that path,” Marshall added.

 

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Broadsides

EX-CHANCELLOR COULD BE BOOTED FROM BERLIN: Germany’s governing coalition is seeking to strip former Chancellor GERHARD SCHRÖDER of his office rooms in Berlin as punishment for his ongoing personal and business ties to Moscow, per our own LAURENZ GEHRKE.

Schröder, who was profiled last month in The New York Times, has refused to forcefully condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or renounce his connections to Russian energy giant Gazprom. Now, according to the German paper Bild, the coalition consisting of the Social Democrats, the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats wants to make a final decision Thursday on Schröder’s fate.

While Schröder is set to maintain his ex-chancellor’s allowance of €8,300 per month, the government is poised to strip him of six rooms in a building across the street from the Russian Embassy on Berlin’s prestigious Unter den Linden boulevard — saving German taxpayers €407,000 annually.

Transitions

— JOEL RUBIN is now vice president for global policy and public affairs at the National Peace Corps Association. He is a former Peace Corps Volunteer in Costa Rica who previously served in the Obama administration’s State Department and most recently was the executive director of the American Jewish Congress.

— DAVID L. ISOM has been selected to replace Fleet Master Chief JAMES HONEA as the command senior enlisted leader for the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command at Camp H.M. Smith in Hawaii. Isom is a Navy master chief petty officer currently assigned as the command senior enlisted leader for the Special Operations Command Pacific at Camp H.M. Smith.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
What to Read

— CHARLES A. KUPCHAN, The Atlantic:Ukraine’s Way Out

— ALAN RAPPEPORT and PATRICIA COHEN, The New York Times:Economic Headwinds Mount as Leaders Weigh Costs of Confronting Russia

— ISHAAN THAROOR, The Washington Post:The Orbanization of America: Florida Shadows Hungary’s War on LGBTQ Rights

Tomorrow Today

Biden welcomes Swedish Prime Minister MAGDALENA ANDERSSON and Finnish President SAULI NIINISTÖ to the White House. Later, Biden departs for Seoul for his first trip to Asia as president.

— House Armed Services Committee, 8 a.m.: Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces Hearing: Air Force Projection Forces Aviation Programs and Capabilities Related to the Fiscal Year 2023 President’s Budget Request — with ANDREW HUNTER and DAVID S. NAHOM

— House Foreign Affairs Committee, 8 a.m.: Subcommittee Hearing: The Ukraine Crisis: Implications for U.S. Policy in the Indo-Pacific — with DAN BLUMENTHAL, CHARLES EDEL, BONNY LIN and TANVI MADAN

— The Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.:War in Europe: Global Supply Chains and the Transatlantic Economy — with TOMAS BAERT, BETH BALTZAN, JULIA FRIEDLANDER and CHARLES LICHFIELD

— The Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 9 a.m.:Coffee and Conversation with SCOTT BUMGARNER — with JOHN DOYON

— House Appropriations Committee, 9:30 a.m.:Subcommittee Hearing: Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency and Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security Overview — with WILLIAM BURNS, AVRIL HAINES and RONALD MOULTRIE

— Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.:The Department of Energy and National Nuclear Security Administration on Atomic Energy Defense Activities in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2023 and the Future Years Defense Program — with JENNIFER GRANHOLM and JILL HRUBY

— Washington Post Live, 9:30 a.m.:MARK ESPER, Former Defense Secretary and Author — with DAVID IGNATIUS

— The Institute of World Politics, 10 a.m.: The MENA Region in May 2022: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly — with NORMAN BAILEY

— The Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: Dancing on Bones: History and Power in China, Russia and North Korea — with ROBERT DALY and KATIE STALLARD

— Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 10:30 a.m.: Full Committee Hearing: Nominations — with BINIAM GEBRE

— The Wilson Center, 11 a.m.: Pan-Arabism: A Path to Unity or Division? — with CHRISTIAN F. OSTERMANN and JUAN ROMERO

— The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 2 p.m.:Briefing with the FBI and CISA on Russian Cyber Threats — with MATT HARTMAN, CYNTHIA KAISER and KURTIS RONNOW

— The Wilson Center, 2:30 p.m.:A Conversation with Colombia’s Minister of Defense, DIEGO MOLANO — with BENJAMIN GEDAN and P. MICHAEL MCKINLEY

— The Brookings Institution, 3 p.m.:Addressing Climate Change in U.S. Defense Strategy and Budget — with JOHN R. ALLEN, JOE BRYAN, MELISSA DALTON, SAMANTHA GROSS, SUZANNE MALONEY and DAVID G. VICTOR

— No Labels, 5 p.m.:Member Briefing Featuring DENNIS C. BLAIR

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

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