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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
U.S. President Joe Biden attends a press conference with Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at Akasaka Palace state guest house in Tokyo Monday, May 23, 2022. | Nicolas Datiche/Pool Photo via AP | With help from Lara Seligman and Connor O’Brien Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint President JOE BIDEN just Beetlejuiced the end of “strategic ambiguity.” During his Monday visit to Japan, a reporter asked: “Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that?” “Yes,” Biden responded. “That’s the commitment we made.” Adding that the United States abides by the One China policy and the Taiwan Relations Act, the president said “the idea that, that [Taiwan] can be taken by force, just taken by force, is just not, is just not appropriate.” That’s the third time Biden has done this, though these were his most forceful comments to date. Last August, Biden said the United States had a similar commitment to Taiwan as it does to NATO allies — you know, the one in which America would send troops to defend an ally if attacked. He was more explicit two months later, vowing to come to the democratic island’s defense if attacked by China. Just like in those instances, an unnamed senior administration official walked back Biden’s remark by saying America’s Taiwan policy hadn’t changed. OK, fine, but if the president makes the same policy statement three times, then it’s pretty clear that’s the policy, even if there isn’t a formal shift on paper. Importantly, Biden has not committed to sending U.S. troops to fight China over Taiwan. He’s promised to help defend the island, which could entail a Ukraine-like strategy of flooding it with weapons and economic aid to repel Beijing’s forces. What Biden is saying, though, is that the U.S. wouldn’t watch an invasion from the sidelines. It would do something … which is a different ambiguity from “would the U.S. act or not?” Prominent Democrats are already praising Biden for his comments. “President Biden is right. Credible deterrence requires both courage and clarity – and Taiwan’s vibrant democracy deserves our full support,” tweeted Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. If Biden thrice misrepresented where his administration stands on defending Taiwan, then it’s high time for somebody on his team to state clearly if U.S. troops would or wouldn’t confront, say, China in a war over the island. “A senior official from the Biden administration should give a comprehensive speech on US policy toward Taiwan. The confusion and misstatements are more likely to undermine deterrence than strengthen it,” tweeted BONNIE GLASER, the D.C.-based director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN just so happens to be giving a speech on China this Thursday — so expect him to touch upon this subject. But as it reads from the cheap seats, strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan is over. The U.S. will participate, in some manner, in the defense of the island if it were to be attacked. In just three comments in nine months, Biden has single-handedly reversed a policy on the books since 1979.
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Lockheed Martin Sikorsky and Boeing are the U.S. Army Aviation’s trusted industrial base. Together, they are Team DEFIANT and they will deliver DEFIANT X®, a transformational, high-speed, highly maneuverable helicopter, bringing future capabilities to Army Aviation. Learn more. | | | | | | MISSILES TO UKRAINE: Denmark is sending Ukraine a Harpoon anti-ship launcher and missiles to help the besieged nation defend its coast from Russian invaders, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN announced on Monday after hosting the second meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, per our own LARA SELIGMAN. The announcement is a welcome surprise — Ukraine has been asking the U.S. to send anti-ship missiles for weeks, but rumors were the United Kingdom or Portugal would provide the weapons. During the meeting, some 20 countries pledged new security assistance packages to Kyiv, Austin said. The group, which was first convened last month during Austin’s trip to Ramstein Air Base, Germany, is made up of more than 40 nations dedicated to helping Ukraine fend off Russia’s invasion. The Czech Republic will donate attack helicopters, tanks and rocket systems; meanwhile other countries including Greece, Norway and Poland also announced new donations of artillery systems and ammunition, Austin said. Austin will convene the contact group for its third meeting on June 15 on the sidelines of the NATO defense ministerial in Brussels, the secretary said. 12 ASIAN NATIONS AGREE TO BIDEN’S TRADE TALKS: The White House has reached a deal with a dozen Indo-Pacific nations to participate in negotiations on Biden’s signature economic initiative in the region, which administration officials consider critical to countering China as an economic and national security rival, per our own STEVEN OVERLY. Biden formally launched the unconventional trade arrangement — called the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework — in Tokyo today. India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Brunei and the Philippines have agreed to take part in the framework talks after expressing some hesitation. They’ll join Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and Malaysia. The 12 participants are essentially pledging to continue the conversation, signing onto a declaration to move forward with negotiations in the four areas that the framework is designed to address: digital trade and trade facilitation, clean energy and decarbonization, supply chain resilience and anti-corruption and taxes. RUSSIAN SOLDIER GETS LIFE SENTENCE: VADIM SHISHIMARIN, a 21-year-old Russian sergeant, was sentenced to life in prison today in the first war crimes trial since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, per the Associated Press’ ELENA BECATOROS, OLEKSANDR STASHEVSKYI and RICARDO MAZALAN. Shishimarin pleaded guilty last week to shooting a 62-year-old Ukrainian civilian in the head in the northeastern Sumy region, and he apologized to the man’s widow in court. Shishimarin’s defense attorney argued that his client had been unprepared for the “violent military confrontation” and mass casualties that Russian forces encountered in Ukraine, and he said he would appeal. Shishimarin had told the court that he at first disobeyed his immediate commanding officer’s order to shoot the unarmed civilian, but that he had no other choice but to follow the order when it was repeated forcefully by another officer. Shishimarin’s case is only the first charge to come to trial, and Ukrainian prosecutors are investigating thousands of potential war crimes. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey . While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @ChristopherJM, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1.
| | | | INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | IRAN VOWS REVENGE FOR SLAIN IRGC MEMBER: Iranian President EBRAHIM RAISI vowed to retaliate for the killing of an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps member that Tehran is already blaming on the U.S. and Israel, The Associated Press’ ISABEL DEBRE reported. Col. HASSAN SAYYAD KHODAEI was gunned down Sunday by two unidentified people on a motorbike, which echoes past attacks on nuclear scientists that Iran has also accused Israel of orchestrating. No one has claimed responsibility for the assassination and there’s no concrete evidence for who’s behind it. But Raisi’s anger implies that Khodaei was a prominent figure in the shadowy and powerful force. “I have no doubt that revenge against the criminals for the blood of this martyr is assured,” he said before hopping a flight to Oman. Per Debre: “Israeli media on Sunday night ran simultaneous stories alleging Khodaei had organized plots against Israeli diplomats, businesspeople and other foreign officials abroad.”
| | | MILLEY: TECH WILL CHANGE WARFARE: New advanced technologies have helped America’s adversaries close the power gap, and those same devices will change the future of warfare, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY told graduating cadets at West Point on Saturday. “Whatever overmatch we, the United States, enjoyed militarily for the last 70 years is closing quickly, and the United States will be, in fact, we already are challenged in every domain of warfare, space, cyber, maritime, air, and of course land,” he said, as reported by The Associated Press’ LOLITA BALDOR. Per Baldor: “The U.S. military, Milley said, can’t cling to concepts and weapons of old, but must urgently modernize and develop the force and equipment that can deter or, if needed, win in a global conflict. And the graduating officers, he said, will have to change the way U.S. forces think, train and fight.” Milley used Ukraine as an example, citing how kamikaze drones and precision weapons helped Kyiv fend off the challenge from Moscow. Milley has long worried about the rise of China and other adversaries, fearing openly of a new outbreak of great-power war. Mastering the technologies and doctrines of a new era will help avoid such catastrophe, he said.
| | | REUTERS REPORTER HAD PHONE SNATCHED ON PENTAGON FLIGHT: Seligman reported that the Pentagon seized a foreign journalist’s phone and wouldn’t allow him to use his electronics while traveling with Deputy Defense Secretary KATHLEEN HICKS on a trip to Norway over the weekend. Before boarding the plane at Joint Base Andrews on Sunday morning, the reporter — who revealed himself to be respected Pentagon journalist IDREES ALI — was told of a new rule mandating that foreigners flying on Air Force planes using top secret classification would be prohibited from using their electronics on the flight. Ten minutes into the flight, a public affairs officer “very apologetically” instructed the reporter to “physically” hand over his phone, also saying that he could not use his AirPods or open his laptop. The other reporter on the flight — who is a U.S. citizen — didn’t have to hand over their phone. An Air Force spokesperson said the incident was a “miscommunication” and that the service will “be reviewing the policy going forward.” The policy won’t be applied to Ali during the remainder of the trip, the spokesperson said. Ali, however, responded to the incident on Twitter: If the policy remained in place following such a review, “It would mean that any non-US reporter traveling with the Pentagon, State Department or even POTUS (depending on the plane being used) would have no access to electronics to file on the plane,a totally incomprehensible policy.”
| | | |   | | | | | | TOP SENATORS BACK SWEDEN AND FINLAND IN NATO: It’s increasingly clear that the Senate will approve of Sweden and Finland joining NATO. Sens. CHUCK SCHUMER (D-N.Y.) and MITCH McCONNELL (R-Ky.), along with the top two members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and other lawmakers, introduced a resolution in support of their accession. This measure isn’t the ratification resolution, just a major signal that Senate leadership wants ratification on an expedited basis. “I’m proud to join my colleagues to introduce this Resolution as a testament to our commitment to revitalize our rock solid bond with NATO as the most powerful alliance in the history of the world and an absolutely essential pillar of U.S. national security,” Senate Foreign Relations Chair Menendez said in a statement. Other senators introducing the resolution are: Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.), RON JOHNSON (R-Wis.), BEN CARDIN (D-Md.) and CHRIS COONS (D-Del.). Our own ANDREW DESIDERIO previously reported that the Senate was very likely to green-light Sweden and Finland as NATO’s 31st and 32nd members. Desiderio also spoke to McConnell, who said one reason he wants those two countries in the alliance is to beat back the growing “isolationist” wing of his party. Leaders hope to ratify the accession by the August recess. MARK IT, DUDE: The Senate Armed Services Committee plans to debate its version of the annual National Defense Authorization Act on June 15, per our own CONNOR O’BRIEN. The panel will hold its markup behind closed doors. And SASC's seven subcommittees will approve their portions of the bill on June 13 and 14. Here's the full SASC schedule. On the other side of the Capitol, the House Armed Services Committee holds its marathon markup of the NDAA a week later, on June 22.
| | | RUSSIAN DIPLOMAT RESIGNS OVER WAR: A 20-year member of Russia’s diplomatic corps resigned Monday over his country’s invasion of Ukraine. “For 20 years of my diplomatic career I have seen different turns of our foreign policy but never have I been so ashamed of my country as on Feb. 24 of this year,” BORIS BONDAREV wrote in an email to colleagues. Bondarev accused Russia’s leaders of launching the war to maintain their grip on power and fortune, decimating the state in the process. “Today the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is not about diplomacy. It is all about warmongering, lies and hatred,” the departing diplomat wrote. On his LinkedIn page , Bondarev added after copy-pasting his letter: “Job offers are welcome.”
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | — JOHN KIRBY has been announced as the National Security Council’s coordinator for strategic communications . He “will coordinate interagency efforts to explain United States policy and will serve as a senior administration voice on related matters, including as appropriate at the White House podium,” per the White House. His position will be housed at the NSC and report to national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN. Kirby currently serves as the assistant to the secretary of Defense for public affairs and is the Pentagon’s chief spokesperson. — GAVIN WILDE has joined the Carnegie Foundation for International Peace as a senior fellow in the technology and international affairs program. He most recently was a managing consultant at Krebs Stamos Group and previously served as a director for Russia, Baltic and Caucasus affairs at the National Security Council.
| | | — MICHÈLE FLOURNOY, Foreign Affairs: “How to Prepare for the Next Ukraine” — CENGIZ AKTAR, POLITICO Europe: “Opinion: Appease and Enable: The West’s Disastrous Russia and Turkey Policies” — CHUN HAN WONG, The Wall Street Journal: “U.N. Human-Rights Chief Kicks Off Closely Watched China Trip”
| | | — In Tokyo, Biden will participate in the second in-person Quad Leaders’ Summit at the Kantei Palace. He also will have bilateral meetings with Indian Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI and newly minted Australian Prime Minister ANTHONY ALBANESE . He will then greet U.S. Embassy Tokyo staff before returning to Washington, D.C. — The Atlantic Council, 8 a.m.: “Women’s Summit for Venezuela — with DIEGO AREA, SARA COHEN, ADRIANA D'ELIA, DEBBIE WASSERMAN SCHULTZ, EDUARDO TRUJILLO and more” — Federal Computer Week, 8 a.m.: “NASA Solutions for Enterprise-Wide Procurement Supply Chain Risk Management Forum — with JON BOYENS, TONY CELESTE, BRIAN PAAP, ROBERT SALVIA, JIM SHEIRE and more” — The Potomac Officers Club, 8 a.m.: “ Reframing Cyber Posture Around Data Collection, Analysis and Action Forum — with GERALD CARON III, ANN DUNKIN, CHRISTOPHER GINDER, MIKE TOECKER and JAMES WOLFF” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8:30 a.m.: “U.S. and German Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific — with MAX BERGMANN and PETRA SIGMUND” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: “ Sustaining Yemen: Ensuring Humanitarian Aid Amid Shifting Conflict Dynamics — with RADHYA AL-MUTAWAKEL, AMANDA CATANZANO, PAUL HARVEY, JACOB KURTZER and SUMMER NASSER” — House Homeland Security Committee, 9 a.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Examining DHS’ Efforts to Improve Processing for International Visitors — with KAREN R. BURKE, CARLOS MARTEL, ROSEMARY VASSILIADIS and KATE WIK” — The Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: “Rebuilding Ukraine’s Economy: A Conversation with Ukrainian Finance Minister SERHIY MARCHENKO — with JOSH LIPSKY” — The Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: “Brazil Elections 2022: A Discussion on the State and Stakes of the Race — with PATRÍCIA CAMPOS MELLO, FERNANDO MELLO, MAURÍCIO MOURA and NICHOLAS ZIMMERMAN” — The Wilson Center, 11 a.m.: “Russian War Crimes in Ukraine: Can Russia Be Held Accountable? — with MARK GREEN and CLINT WILLIAMSON” — The Association of the U.S. Army, 12 p.m.: “Noon Report: Army Integrated Prevention System With Dr. James A. Helis — with PHYLLIS J. WILSON” — Booz Allen Hamilton, 12 p.m.: “Cyber Resiliency for Tomorrow’s Space Missions — with KEVIN COGGINS, CARL FISCHER, ALEXANDER GATES, TIM HAMPTON and HOLLY ROLLINS” — House Appropriations Committee, 12 p.m.: “ Subcommittee Hearing: National Guard and Reserve — with DAVID G. BELLON, JODY J. DANIELS, DANIEL R. HOKANSON, JOHN B. MUSTIN and RICHARD W. SCOBEE” — Federal Computer Week, 1 p.m.: “The Future of Attack Surface Management — with BRAD LAPORTE” — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 2:15 p.m.: “Full Committee Hearing: Nominations — with MICHAEL J. ADLER, MICHAEL BATTLE, REUBEN E. BRIGETY II, JOHN T. GODFREY, MICHAEL C. GONZALES and MARGARET C. WHITMAN” — The National Iranian American Council, 4 p.m.: “Targeting Civilians: The Human Cost of U.S. Economic Sanctions — with ARASH AZIZZADA, DANIEL JASPER, AISHA JUMAAN, ASSAL RAD and FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ” — The Institute of World Politics, 5:15 p.m.: “Turkey’s President Erdogan’s Balancing Leading to the 2023 Elections — with HENRY P. WILLIAMS” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who is never ambiguous about his policies and only has to tell us once.
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