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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
WNBA star and two-time Olympic gold medalist Brittney Griner is escorted to a courtroom for a hearing, in Khimki just outside Moscow, Russia, Friday, July 1, 2022. | Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP Photo | With help from Nahal Toosi and Maxwell Tani Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint As much as the Biden administration wants to bring her home, BRITTNEY GRINER will likely remain in a Russian prison for at least a few more months. That fear, which multiple U.S. officials and people familiar with Griner’s situation expressed to NatSec Daily and West Wing Playbook, stems from two main issues that combine to delay her safe return. The first is that the Kremlin seeks to leverage her celebrity for its gain. "The Russians are making maximalist demands in exchange for Griner," a U.S. official told us, refusing to elaborate. It’s widely believed that Russian authorities have specifically asked to trade Griner for VIKTOR BOUT , a 55-year-old arms dealer and former Soviet military officer caught in a 2008 federal sting operation. Moscow has made securing his return a top priority, and apparently sees a swap for Griner as the way to get him back. The Biden administration likely considers Bout too high a price. He built a global network to sell his weapons around the world, fueling crises and violating international law. He may not have the power he once did following his arrest and 2011 conviction, but few in the U.S. and elsewhere want to give him the chance to regain it. Russia has continuously asked to trade Bout for American hostages with no success, a former U.S. official familiar with the issue said, though Russian officials may think Griner could prove a better bargaining chip. She “hits all these cultural buttons” — she’s Black, gay and a star athlete — thus nudging President JOE BIDEN to move fast and make a deal, the former official continued. “All the pressure is going on Biden while the pressure should be on [Russian President VLADIMIR ] PUTIN.” The other problem is the protracted nature of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Putin believes that the West will eventually relent from its pressure campaign. But in case it doesn’t, Putin could dangle Griner’s return as a way to extract some sanctions relief, U.S. officials suggested. Simply put, holding Griner gives Putin at least one big card to play in possible future negotiations with the United States over Ukraine’s future. Some people we spoke with noted the U.S. secured TREVOR REED’s release in April — two months into the war — indicating it was still possible to deal with Russia on such matters. But that was before Russia gained the upper hand in a war of attrition in Ukraine’s east. Moscow’s warriors just this week seized Luhansk , the first full Ukrainian province captured by Russia since the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Furthermore, Reed was arrested in Moscow in 2019, kickstarting a yearslong diplomatic effort to bring him home. The former Marine’s health was also failing at the time of the prisoner swap, and the Russians likely did not want to deal with his potential death on their watch. Griner, by contrast, appears to be in good health and, despite her trying circumstances, “is keeping the faith,” State Department spokesperson NED PRICE said Tuesday. It’s not a particularly hopeful scenario. Even so, the Biden administration is working to place Griner back into the arms of her wife, family and teammates. For more on what U.S. officials are specifically doing, make sure to read Part 2 in this evening’s West Wing Playbook.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Lockheed Martin, helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating digital transformation.
At Lockheed Martin digital transformation means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins, industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more. | | | | | | LUHANSK ‘ALMOST’ FULLY OCCUPIED: SERHIY HAIDAI, the regional governor of the eastern Ukrainian province of Luhansk, said Wednesday that 300,000 people have fled the region as Russia has “almost” fully captured it, he posted on Telegram. Haidai added that around 8,000 residents remain in Severodonetsk while up to 15,000 are still in Lysychansk, which Russia now controls. As the Washington Post’s ANNABELLE CHAPMAN and ADELA SULIMAN summarized: Haidai “added that evacuating the front lines in Luhansk was the right decision and said Ukrainian troops did a ‘good job.’ He added that the robust defense of Luhansk for more than four months also bought time for those defending Donetsk and slowed Russia’s campaign in the strategic region.” RUSSIA IMPOSES ECONOMIC CONTROLS: Russia’s Parliament rammed through two bills Wednesday to bolster the local economy as Western-imposed sanctions take their toll: one requiring businesses to supply goods to the military and another to force employees at some places to work overtime. "In the context of operations carried out by the armed forces of the Russian Federation outside of Russia, including on the territory of Ukraine, there is a need to repair weapons, military equipment and provide the armed forces with material and technical means," reads an explanatory note to one of the bills as reported by Reuters. “According to one of the drafts, the state will be able to purchase goods and services necessary for conducting military special operations from a single supplier without the need for a competitive tender. In addition, businesses will be required by law to supply goods and services necessary for conducting the ‘special military operation’ to the armed forces,” Reuters continued. “A second bill mandates the government to require employees of certain enterprises producing goods and services needed by the Russian military to work overtime. The government may also oblige some employees to work at night, on weekends or during holidays, in return for increased wages.” G-20 PROBLEMS AND UKRAINE IS ALL OF THEM: As the G-20 meets in Indonesia this week to tackle the war in Ukraine and the global problems it has unleashed, there’s worry that division will rear its ugly head, the Associated Press’ MATTHEW LEE reported. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN will meet with his Chinese counterpart, WANG YI , on the sidelines and will work to avoid Russian Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV . What’s more, “Blinken will find himself among diplomats from countries wary of the U.S. approach to Ukraine and concerned about its impact on them,” Lee wrote. “China and many other participants, including India, South Africa and Brazil, have resisted signing onto U.S. and European full-throated opposition to Russia’s invasion. Some have outright refused Western entreaties to join condemnations of the conflict, which the U.S. and its allies see as an attack on the international rules-based order that has prevailed since the end of World War II.” In other words, there won’t be the unity Biden got to enjoy while in Europe last week. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @ChristopherJM, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1 — plus our summer interns, @Lawrence_Ukenye and @nicolle_liu.
| | | DRC-RWANDA WAR?: War could break out between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda if both nations can’t settle a dispute over Kigali’s alleged support for a dangerous rebel group. DRC President FÉLIX TSHISEKEDI accuses Rwanda of backing M23, a Congolese rebel unit that last month captured a town in the country’s east, near Uganda’s border, ending a 10-year break in major violence. Tshisekedi accuses Rwanda of supporting M23, saying the small nation is responsible for aggressions against the DRC. Rwanda continuously denies the allegations, even though conflict observers and United Nations experts say Kigali definitely supported the ethnically Tutsi group, at least in the past. A war of words could soon turn into an actual fight. “This possibility cannot be ruled out. If Rwanda’s provocation continues, we will not sit and do nothing about it. We are not weak,” Tshisekedi told the Financial Times’ ANDRES SCHIPANI Wednesday. The DRC’s leader and Rwandan President PAUL KAGAME met in Angola to try and resolve the dispute.
| | | |   | | | | | | FBI AND MI5 WARN AGAINST CHINESE HACKING: In an unprecedented joint address , the heads of the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Britain’s MI5 warned against increasingly brazen Chinese espionage and hacking attempts. "We've seen China looking for ways to insulate their economy against potential sanctions, trying to cushion themselves from harm if they do anything to draw the ire of the international community," FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY said in London alongside MI5 Director General KEN McCALLUM, adding that China poses "an even more serious threat to western businesses than even many sophisticated businesspeople realized.” McCallum said that MI5 had already doubled its work against China and would need to double it again to keep up with the Chinese threat. “We consistently see that it’s the Chinese government that poses the biggest long-term threat to our economic and national security, and by ‘our,’ I mean both of our nations, along with our allies in Europe and elsewhere,” Wray asserted.
| | | BUSES IN SPACE: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report Northrop Grumman selected Airbus to provide 42 satellite buses that will eventually be part of the Space Development Agency’s constellation for a future communications network, the companies announced Tuesday. The major component that Airbus is providing is based on a version already in the commercial marketplace. The satellite buses will be produced in Florida by the company’s joint venture with OneWeb. Other companies working for Northrop on the project include Mynaric and Innoflight, which will provide optical links. The SDA in February awarded contracts to three companies — Northrop, Lockheed Martin and York Space Systems — for satellite constellations to serve as the backbone of the Pentagon’s concept to connect all weapons and sensors on the battlefield. The satellites will be delivered in time for launch in September 2024.
| | | BIPARTISAN BILL ON TAIWAN ARMS SALES: A House Democrat has thrown her support behind a Republican-led bill to track and expedite weapons sales to Taiwan and Indo-Pacific allies. The Arms Exports Delivery Solutions Act, introduced by Reps. YOUNG KIM (R-Calif.) and MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, mandates Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN to write a report on the list of approved items to sell to regional allies and partners, the estimated start and end dates of arms deliveries and more. Reps. STEVE CHABOT (R-Ohio) and BRIAN MAST (R-Fla.) had joined as original co-sponsors, making it an all-Republican affair. But now Rep. ABIGAIL SPANBERGER (D-Va.) said she is backing the legislation, giving it bipartisan support. “[T]he United States needs to make sure defensive weapons systems are being delivered to our allies in the region — including Taiwan. But without a full accounting of these articles and the contributing factors to their shipment delays, we are not doing all we can to protect our security partners and deter the CCP,” she said in a statement using an acronym for the Chinese Communist Party. It’s unclear if the bill will gain more support or if there’s any movement to get it a vote.
| | | BOJO A GO GO?: The hits just keep on coming for scandal-plagued British Prime Minister BORIS JOHNSON following a slew of high-level Cabinet and MP resignations. "At some point, we have to conclude that enough is enough," former Health Secretary SAJID JAVID, the first of the resigners, told Johnson in Parliament on Wednesday. "I have concluded that the problem starts at the top, that is not going to change." "The prime minister constantly tries to deflect from the issue, always tries to blame other people for mistakes,” Conservative MP GARY SAMBROOK piled on, adding there is “nothing left for him to do other than to take responsibility and resign." Cheers and applause followed. Ouch. The latest crisis comes after CHRIS PINCHER , the Tory’s deputy chief whip, was accused of groping two men at a private club. Further allegations against Pincher have since come out, leading to questions about what Johnson knew and when he knew it as he elevated Pincher to a high position. All this follows a leadership challenge to Johnson following reports of his government holding in-person parties as they told Britons to stay at home during the pandemic. Johnson maintains that he should still remain prime minister, defending his domestic record and his leadership of the West’s retaliation against Russia for the Ukraine invasion. But he may soon have little choice but to resign, leading to political turmoil at a time Britain can ill-afford it.
| | | — Biden nominated HENRY JARDINE to be the U.S. ambassador to Mauritius and the Seychelles. Jardine is currently the director of the State Department’s Office for Career Development and Assignments in Washington, D.C., and served previously as the principal deputy director of the Bureau of Overseas Buildings Operations at State. — ELAINE DEZENSKI has joined Foundation for Defense of Democracies as senior director and head of its Center on Economic and Financial Power. A former senior director at the World Economic Forum, Dezenski is an expert on geopolitical risk, supply chain security, anti-corruption and national security. — MICHAEL SCHMIDT , an Air Force lieutenant general, is now in charge of the Pentagon’s F-35 program office. He previously served as the Air Force’s program executive officer for command, control, communication, intelligence and networks. (h/t VALERIE INSINNA)
| | | — ELIOT A. COHEN, The Atlantic: “Let’s Use Chicago Rules to Beat Russia” — NEIL MACFARQUHAR, The New York Times: “How War in Ukraine Roiled Russia’s ‘Coolest Company’” — EDWIDGE DANTICAT, The New Yorker: “Haiti a Year After the Presidential Assassination”
| | | — The Atlantic Council, 8 a.m.: “Implications of Pakistan’s Removal From the FATF Greylist — with ALI FARID KHWAJA, TAIMUR MALIK , ARIBA SHAHID, ALI SULTAN and UZAIR YOUNUS” — The Wilson Center, 12 p.m.: “ The Role of Belarus in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: From Guarantor of Security to a Source of Instability — with VALERY KAVALEUSKI, ELENA KOROSTELEVA, ALLA LEUKAVETS, WILLIAM E. POMERANZ and FRANAK VIACORKA” — The Brookings Institution, 1 p.m.: “Why Foreign Talent Is Critical to National Security — with JUDE BLANCHETTE, CHRISTINE FOX, RYAN HASS and JOSEPH VOTEL” — The Hudson Institute, 1:30 p.m.: “Defense Disruptors Series: A Conversation with General DAVID BERGER — with BRYAN CLARK and DAN PATT” — The Institute of World Politics, 4:30 p.m.: “Beyond Nuclear Crisis: New and Long-Term Strategy for the Korean Peninsula — with DAVID MAXWELL” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who continues to fend off our leadership challenge despite all of this newsletter’s problems coming from the top. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Lockheed Martin, helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating digital transformation.
At Lockheed Martin digital transformation means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins, industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
