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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
Keeping American troops in Afghanistan “could not be justified” as the Taliban was set to attack the few thousand service members there, and no amount of American military presence led to victory after 20 years. “It had to come to an end,” he told The Atlantic’s JEFFREY GOLDBERG | Frederic J. Brown/Pool via AP | With help from Lara Seligman, Lee Hudson and Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint It’s NatSec Daily’s last day in Aspen, Colo., for the Aspen Security Forum (and for Alex, the last full day on the road for a while — yay!). The conference, perched among red, green and bald mountains, ended with three takeaways: The Biden administration still defends the decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, admits the process to bring Afghans who served alongside U.S. troops in that war stateside is “slow,” and Trump’s Pentagon chief called the former president him a threat to democracy. ‘IT HAD TO COME TO AN END’: As the one-year anniversary of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan approaches, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN road-tested a defense of the decision before the audience at Aspen. Keeping American troops in Afghanistan “could not be justified” as the Taliban was set to attack the few thousand service members there, and no amount of American military presence led to victory after 20 years. “It had to come to an end,” he told The Atlantic’s JEFFREY GOLDBERG. Sullivan added that President JOE BIDEN is convinced he made the right call to end America’s involvement in the war. That said, Sullivan mentioned it was personally “horrible, painful” for him to watch the images at Kabul International Airport. Reflecting on what he’s learned 19 months into the job, he noted that it was “a human job” with impact on real people. Yes, there have been horrors in Afghanistan since the withdrawal, like the closure of schools for girls, he noted, but ultimately the national security adviser argued the strategic decision to leave was correct. STATE NO. 3: SIV PROCESS ‘HAS BEEN SLOW’: The process to get Special Immigrant Visa applicants out of Afghanistan “has been slow,” Undersecretary of State VICTORIA NULAND admitted here in Aspen. “We are working very hard every day to try to speed it up,” she told CNN’s JIM SCIUTTO. The administration says there are about 74,000 SIV applicants still in the pipeline, though much of the delay and problems stem from the Trump administration, which effectively abandoned that program. This week, the Biden administration streamlined the SIV process by no longer mandating forms from different agencies. The process now lies solely with the State Department. ESPER: TRUMP A THREAT TO DEMOCRACY: MARK ESPER, former President DONALD TRUMP’s secretary of Defense, called his last boss “a threat to democracy” who is guilty of “dereliction of duty” following the Jan. 6 insurrection. “To continue to challenge the election result in December, and then invite people to come to D.C. on Jan. 6, and to get them spun up that morning, and then fail to call them off to me is a dereliction of duty,” he told The New York Times’ PETER BAKER at the Aspen conference. Esper has made similar comments before, but hasn’t been so explicit until today. The former Pentagon chief came to Aspen to discuss his views on U.S. policy toward Taiwan — he believes the “One China” policy has outlived its usefulness. But his most impactful comments were on why the former — and perhaps future president — isn’t fit for office. What Trump did “is not in keeping with the best traditions of our country, let alone the Oval Office,” he said.
| | | ZELENSKYY: NO CEASEFIRE WITHOUT LAND RETURN: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY says a cease-fire that allows Russia to keep territories taken since the invasion would only spark a larger conflict. “Freezing the conflict with the Russian Federation means a pause that gives the Russian Federation a break for rest,” he told The Wall Street Journal’s YAROSLAV TROFIMOV and MATTHEW LUXMOORE on Friday. “They will not use this pause to change their geopolitics or to renounce their claims on the former Soviet republics.” Russia has already taken an entire province in Ukraine’s east and is apparently planning for broader annexation of the country’s south. If a cease-fire is brokered now, then Russia “will rest and in two or three years, it will seize two more regions and say again: Freeze the conflict. And it will keep going further and further. One hundred percent.” $270M FOR UKRAINE: The White House today approved another $270 million in security assistance for Ukraine, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY announced, bringing the total aid committed to Kyiv since February to $8.2 billion. The package includes four additional High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, 36,000 rounds of ammunition, and 580 Phoenix Ghost tactical drones, among other capabilities, Kirby said. The HIMARS and Phoenix Ghost, in particular, have proved critical on the battlefield, allowing Ukraine to destroy dozens of Russian targets and stay in the fight despite Moscow’s overwhelming firepower. The aid packages have become routine, with the White House announcing a new tranche of similar capabilities roughly every week. But Kirby hinted that the U.S. could soon provide Ukraine with a new capability: fighter jets. “DOD is making some preliminary explorations into the feasibility of potentially providing fighter aircraft,” Kirby said, though he cautioned that the move would not happen “immediately or even in the short term.” Kirby’s comments echo statements made by Air Force Chief of Staff GEN. C. Q. BROWN earlier in the week, when he opened the door to sending western fighters to Kyiv. RUSSIA, UKRAINE GRAIN DEAL: Russia and Ukraine signed a deal , brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, to allow the safe shipments of grain in the Black Sea, POLITICO Europe’s CAMILLE GIJS reported. “The deal will allow the creation of a ‘control center’ in Istanbul, which will coordinate and monitor the grain exports,” per Gijs. “The deal paves the way for at least 20 million tons of grain to be released, as shipments from Ukraine, a major agricultural exporter, via its ports have been blocked since Russia invaded the country. This sparked fears of a global food crisis as prices shot up and Ukraine's grain was stuck in its silos.” "This is an agreement for the world. It will bring relief for developing countries on the edge of bankruptcy and the most vulnerable people on the edge of famine. It will help stabilize global food prices which were already at record-levels even before the war," U.N. Secretary General ANTÓNIO GUTERRES said during a news conference in Istanbul. But there is one potential complication, Gijs reported: “One of Moscow's requests was to inspect ships carrying the grain to ensure that they would not be used to deliver weapons to Ukraine,” though officials in Kyiv “said that all inspections will be ‘carried out by joint groups in Turkish waters.’” At Aspen, Undersecretary of State VICTORIA NULAND said Russia agreed to the deal because Moscow “felt the hot breath of global opprobrium.” WH, PENTAGON WARNING PELOSI: White House and Defense Department officials have already been quietly relaying the risks of a potential Taiwan trip to Speaker NANCY PELOSI’s office, report our own LARA SELIGMAN and ANDREW DESIDERIO . Inside the Pentagon, officials believe Pelosi’s trip next month could increase tensions in the region as Beijing ratchets up its rhetoric and flexes its muscles in the South China Sea. Pelosi is planning to use a military aircraft to fly to the island, which is standard for congressional delegations. But to the Chinese, “it looks like a military operation,” said one U.S. official. Pelosi said Thursday that she hasn’t heard directly from Biden about the trip and pushed back on the notion that her visit to Taiwan would be interpreted by the Chinese as a provocation. Meanwhile, Republicans are supporting Pelosi, noting that she has a long track record of challenging China. “I don’t always agree with her, but on this one, I applaud it,” said Rep. MICHAEL MCCAUL (R-Texas), the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey . While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @ChristopherJM , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1 — plus our summer interns, @Lawrence_Ukenye and @nicolle_liu . | | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: Competitive capabilities for America’s next strategic tanker.
Lockheed Martin and Airbus announced the LMXT’s boom will be manufactured in Arkansas, reinforcing that the LMXT will be built in America for Americans by Americans. Learn more. | | | | | | SOUTH KOREA’S PRESIDENT WANTS CRIMINAL PROBE OF LAST GOVERNMENT: South Korean President YOON SUK-YEOL said he wants a criminal investigation of the previous administration led by MOON JAE-IN. The push for a dramatic probe comes after video and images surfaced of the Moon administration forcibly repatriating North Korean fishermen who didn’t want to be sent back. “The video footage and photos captured their final moments in South Korea: two North Korean fishermen taken against their will to the border. One of them was so resistant to being deported to North Korea that South Korean officials had to drag him. The other appeared resigned to his fate,” The New York Times’ CHOE SANG-HUN reported. “The footage and 10 photos of the men, newly released by the South Korean government, were taken in 2019. At the time, the South Korean government called the men “murderers” who had killed 16 fellow North Korean fishermen. The men, though acknowledging the killings, said they wanted to defect.” “The essence of the case is that the fishermen fleeing North Korea were returned there to their death, as the North wished, when they should have been accepted into South Korea and dealt with in accordance with our own law,” said CHOI YOUNG-BUM, Yoon’s chief spokesperson. This continues a trend for former South Korean leaders, NYT’s Choe noted. “Of the four former presidents who have governed the country in the past two decades, one — ROH MOO-HYUN — killed himself while being investigated for possible corruption. Two — LEE MYUNG-BAK and PARK GEUN-HYE — ended up in prison for corruption,” he reported.
| | | TSA REISSUES PIPELINE CYBER RULE: The Transportation Security Administration formally reissued a rule Thursday requiring pipeline operators to implement a collection of cybersecurity measures to keep hackers out of vital U.S. infrastructure, reports our own ERIC GELLER (for Pros!). The new version of the pipeline security directive gives companies more flexibility in how they meet federal requirements to separate networks that directly control physical pipelines from those that provide services such as email or payroll processing, block unauthorized access to pipeline control systems, patch vulnerabilities, conduct routine malware scans, develop incident response plans and perform regular security audits. The first version of the directive prompted widespread industry backlash, with operators accusing the TSA of failing to adequately consult them and of producing overly burdensome requirements that didn’t reflect the reality of their networks.
| | | |   | | | | | | FTC PROBE: The Federal Trade Commission is ramping up its investigation of the 2018 Northrop Grumman merger for solid rocket motor maker Orbital ATK and is weighing legal action that could include suing to unwind the nearly four-year-old deal, our own JOSH SISCO and LEE HUDSON scoop. Unfurling the deal would send shockwaves through the defense sector and mark a major milestone for Biden’s antitrust agenda, sowing doubt about both proposed and existing mergers across the economy. The agency is concerned Northrop violated promises it made to offer fair deals to defense contractors for key components. The scrutiny comes amid growing skepticism of defense mergers — and deals generally — at the commission. In February, the FTC forced Lockheed Martin to abandon its purchase of competing solid rocket motor maker Aerojet Rocketdyne, which was similar to the Northrop-Orbital purchase. Both Orbital and Aerojet make engines used for national security programs such as hypersonic and ballistic missiles. NORTHCOM CHIEF WANTS NEXTGEN INTERCEPTORS ASAP: The head of U.S. Northern Command wants Next Generation Interceptors “as soon as possible” to defend against the missile threat from North Korea, he told reporters on the sidelines of the Aspen Security Forum. In response to a question from NatSec Daily, Gen. GLEN VANHERCK said if the defense contractors can go faster, they should. But, he added, “both companies that are providing options for the Next Generation Interceptor are on track to field in 2027.” Earlier this year, VanHerck told lawmakers that the U.S. needed to deploy the NGI by 2028 to fend off the threat emanating from Pyongyang. The U.S. currently has 44 ground-based interceptors based in Alaska and California, with plans to add 20 more via the NGI program. Experts worry that the U.S. missile defense system can’t adequately defend the homeland from intercontinental ballistic missiles. And that doesn’t even include the growing threat from cruise and hypersonic missiles. U.S. NOT SENDING LONG-RANGE DRONES TO UKRAINE: The Biden administration has so far opted not to send long-range drones to Ukraine, namely out of fear that the aircraft and its sensitive technology could end up in Russian hands. “More than two months ago, Ukrainian officials requested four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones, U.S. officials said. The Biden administration was reluctant to approve the request, the officials said, citing a number of concerns, ranging from the potential loss of advanced technology from the battlefield to the need to train Ukrainians to operate the drones,” The Wall Street Journal’s NANCY YOUSSEF, GORDON LUBOLD and VIVIAN SALAMA reported. “The U.S. has provided hundreds of smaller, tactical unmanned aircraft for both reconnaissance and targeting — including Phoenix Ghost, the Puma and Switchblade drones — but the Gray Eagles would represent a substantially new capability for the Ukrainians.” It’s unclear if Ukraine will eventually get these long-range drones, though there’s no public indication that such transfers are imminent or even in the cards.
| | | 99 SENATORS WANT TERRORISM LABEL FOR RUSSIA: Just days after Alex and BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN scooped that Pelosi urged the State Department to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, nearly all Senators came out to say they would support legislation backing that label. “Every senator except for Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) has agreed to quick consideration of a resolution calling on Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN to make the designation. All 100 senators must consent to a bill in order for it to be fast-tracked on the floor. Paul is still reviewing the measure, his office said,” Andrew Desiderio reported . It’s unclear if the House will move on the terrorism designaton, as Pelosi warned Blinken in a call earlier this week. But she did tell Desiderio that the U.S. placing that label on Russia was “long overdue.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: Competitive capabilities for America’s next strategic tanker.
The LMXT aircraft delivers proven capabilities for the U.S. Air Force’s increasing aerial refueling missions. One of the LMXT’s discriminating capabilities is its refueling system, which includes a fly-by-wire aerial refueling boom. Learn more. | | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– SCIENTISTS TO BIDEN: REENTER JCPOA: A group of 24 prominent scientists, including a winner of the Presidential Medal of Freedom, urged Biden to immediately get the U.S. back into the dying Iran nuclear deal. “The best way to address this dangerous situation is quick return to the JCPOA, with its strict limits on Iran’s stockpiles of enriched uranium and enrichment capacity, continuous monitoring, and daily access of inspectors to key facilities. We strongly support diplomatic efforts to achieve this end. This may require further intensive discussions with Iran, whether indirect or direct, on its condition that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) be removed from the US list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations,” they wrote in a June 20 letter which hasn’t been reported until now. Among the signatories: RICHARD GARWIN, who won the Presidential Medal of Freedom award in 2016; MIT’s LISBETH GRONLUND; SCOTT KEMP, who advised the State Department on Iranian nuclear negotiations in 2010; and ALLISON MacFARLANE, who was on the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission from 2012 to 2014. Biden recently said he’s not going to remove the IRGC from the terrorism blacklist, saying Iran can take the current deal on the table. Should diplomacy fail, the president added that he would use force to keep Iran from a nuclear weapon as a “last resort.” At the Aspen forum Thursday, MI6 chief RICHARD MOORE stated he didn’t think Iran’s supreme leader wanted the revival of the nuclear pact .
| | | — MAX PRIMORAC has been promoted to serve as the new director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy at the Heritage Foundation, covering Africa, Latin America, Middle East, foreign aid and global development issues. He previously worked at the U.S. Agency for International Development in the Trump administration. — JOHN HENNESSEY NILAND has left his role as U.S. ambassador to Palau. He will next be a professor of practice at Texas A&M’s Bush School of Government and Public Service after 35 years in the Foreign Service.
| | | — PAUL ROSENZWEIG, The Atlantic: “ The Secret Service Texting Scandal Makes No Sense ” — JASON LYALL, Foreign Affairs: “ How Inequality Hobbles Military Power ” — MICHAEL SCHAFFER, POLITICO Magazine: “ The Ambassador, His Swanky New Embassy and the Limits of Diplomatic Immunity ”
| | | — The Atlantic Council, 8 a.m.: “ How Ukrainian Media Can Survive Russia’s War — with MICHAEL BOCIURKIW, MELINDA HARING, SEVGIL MUSAYEVA, MARICHKA PADALKO, OLGA RUDENKO and OLEKSANDR TKACHENKO” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: “ Partnerships for Prosperity: U.S. Leadership in the Global Economy — with DON GRAVES and JAMES ANDREW LEWIS” — The Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: “ Assessing U.N. State-Building in South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Beyond — with A. HEATHER COYNE, ADAM DAY, VANDA FELBAB-BROWN, RICHARD GOWAN and RACHEL KLEINFELD” — House Veterans’ Affairs Committee, 11 a.m.: “ Subcommittee Hearing: Ensuring a Successful Military to Civilian Transition for Service Members in Southern Alabama — with KERRY CORNELIUS, TOM FERGUSON and TAMMY JOHNSON” — The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: “ The Short End of the Big Stick: Military Families Bear the Brunt of Our Foreign Policy — with ELIZABETH FIELD, CHRISTOPHER REID, SARAH STREYDER and ADAM WEINSTEIN” — The Atlantic Council, 1 p.m.: “ Iran and Iraq: The Struggle for Tenable Relations — with ABBAS KADHIM, MOHSEN MILANI, MASOUD MOSTAJABI, BARBARA SLAVIN, RANDA SLIM and AHMED TABAQCHALI” — Defense Systems and Nextgov, 1 p.m.: “ Sunrise to Sunset: A Deeper Look at the Defense Cloud Landscape — with MATTHEW JACOBS and LAUREN WILLIAMS” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: “ The Capital Cable: Conversation with Rep. AMI BERA on Korea — with VICTOR CHA, MARK LIPPERT and SUE MI TERRY” — The Atlantic Council, 4:30 p.m.: “ A Conversation with H.E. IRFAAN ALI, President of the Co-Operative Republic of Guyana — with MELANIE CHEN and JASON MARCZAK” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, John Yearwood, who makes us feel the hot breath of his opprobrium while he edits. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
