North Korea will ‘automatically’ launch nukes if Kim killed

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Friday Sep 09,2022 07:55 pm
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By Alexander Ward and Lawrence Ukenye

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un delivers a speech.

Kim Jong Un, like his father before him, is reluctant to part with his nukes because they help keep the regime in place. | Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP

With help from Lee Hudson and Daniel Lippman 

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North Korea will launch a nuclear retaliation “automatically and immediately” if KIM JONG UN is incapacitated in an attack, according to a new law, codifying for the first time that the leader has delegated his strike authority under that severe condition.

The legislation, passed by Kim’s rubber-stamp parliament, also allows for preemptive nuclear strikes if North Korea judges that foreign weapons will soon streak toward its strategic targets or state leadership.

The measure comes as the dictator vowed to never part with the nuclear and missiles program it took his country decades to build, making them more and more dangerous by the year. North Korea will “never give up nuclear weapons and there is absolutely no denuclearization, and no negotiation and no bargaining chip to trade in the process," Kim declared Friday, according to state-run media.

Kim, like his father before him, is reluctant to part with his nukes because they help keep the regime in place. But the thinking was Pyongyang would only use the weapons in the event of foreign nations first attacking North Korea, presumably some combination of the United States, Japan and South Korea.

Not anymore: The law says Kim’s bombs can fly in the event of any weapons of mass destruction attack and/or a non-nuclear strike on state leadership, command of nuclear forces or “important strategic objects” that is underway or “judged to be on the horizon.”

“This raises serious questions about the North’s ability to get accurate intelligence and what the threshold of evidence will be to make those judgment calls,” said JENNY TOWN , a senior fellow and director of the 38 North program at the Stimson Center.

Kim’s move is likely in response to comments made by South Korean President YOON SUK-YEOL, who previously suggested that a preemptive strike on the “kill chain” in North Korea is necessary as Pyongyang prepares an attack. Indeed, Kim has now let the world know the red button may still get pushed even if he’s dead.

“In case the command and control system over the state nuclear forces is placed in danger owing to an attack by hostile forces, a nuclear strike shall be launched automatically and immediately to destroy the hostile forces including the starting point of provocation and the command according to the operation plan decided in advance,” the new law reads.

“The new law underscores the dangers of the U.S. and South Korea focusing on leadership decapitation strategies,” said ANKIT PANDA , a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “It was quite predictable that the North Koreans would go down the path of threatening automatic retaliation if Kim is killed.”

Don’t expect President JOE BIDEN to shift course, though. “Our policy remains unchanged,” ADRIENNE WATSON , the National Security Council spokesperson, told NatSec Daily in an email. The U.S. will continue to coordinate with allies for “the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”

U.S. officials are prepared to meet their North Korean counterparts without preconditions, an offer repeatedly made to counterparts in Pyongyang. North Korea “continues to not respond,” Watson said.

 

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The Inbox

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– RESOLUTION HONORING QUEEN ELIZABETH II: Two senators will soon introduce a resolution to honor the late Queen ELIZABETH II , paying tribute to her 70 years of service.

The measure from Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and SUSAN COLLINS (R-Me.), joined by more than 40 of their colleagues, “expresses gratitude to Queen Elizabeth II for her efforts to maintain strong bilateral relations between the United Kingdom and the United States; and extends condolences to the family of Queen Elizabeth II, to the people of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and to the peoples of the Commonwealth of Nations.”

Both CHUCK SCHUMER and MITCH McCONNELL , the Senate majority and minority leaders, respectively, cosponsored the resolution.

“As we look back at her historic reign, the U.S. Senate offers this resolution to honor Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II and her legacy that is etched into our collective global history,” Shaheen said in a statement. “She will be deeply missed, but her faithful service and leadership will be long remembered,” Collins added.

The U.S. will continue to honor the queen: Biden ordered all American flags at half-staff, only to be raised again at sunset on the day of her internment. The president plans to attend her funeral in about a week's time.

The tradition of lowering of flags in remembrance of the dead started as far back as the 17th century. But it’s rare for a U.S. president to direct the stars and stripes halfway down the flagpole in honor of a foreign leader. Here’s a quick list, in reverse chronological order :

— 2013: NELSON MANDELA, ordered by BARACK OBAMA 

2005: Pope JOHN PAUL II, ordered by GEORGE W. BUSH

1999: King HUSSEIN , ordered by BILL CLINTON

1995: YITZHAK RABIN, ordered by BILL CLINTON

1981: ANWAR SADAT, ordered by RONALD REAGAN

1965: WINSTON CHURCHILL, ordered by LYNDON JONHSON

UKRAINIAN TROOPS NEAR KEY CITY: Ukrainian forces are nearing the city of Kupyansk, a key hub for Russian resupply and troop positioning.

“The surprise offensive has put Ukrainian forces near Kupyansk, a city of some 30,000 before the war…. Control over that city would isolate Russian forces to the south in Izyum, which Moscow had sought to use as a staging ground for its own offensive,” The Wall Street Journal’s ISABEL COLES reported. “Losing the city would severely degrade but not completely sever Russia’s ground lines of communication to Izyum, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, predicting that Ukrainian forces would recapture it within days.”

The last few days have seen Ukraine’s greatest breakthrough in months of war, advancing around 30 miles in the northeastern Kharkiv region. “It is very difficult for us, but we are moving forward,” Gen. VALERY ZALUZHNY, commander in chief of Ukrainian Armed Forces, tweeted this morning on the Defense Ministry’s account.

INDIA AND CHINA PULL BACK FROM BORDER: Two years of fighting on a disputed border may now be over, as India and China two nuclear-armed nations ordered their forces back from the flashpoint in the Ladakh region.

“The Indian and Chinese troops in the area of Gogra-Hot Springs have begun to disengage in a coordinated and planned way, which is conducive to the peace and tranquility in the border areas,” India’s Defense Ministry said on Thursday in a statement echoed by China’s government, the New York Times’ SAMEER YASIR reported.

Thus ends, for now, a renewed standoff that began in 2019 and included a scrap a year later that killed 20 Indian soldiers and an undeclared number of Chinese troops.

Indian Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI and Chinese leader XI JINPING plan to meet next week at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @alexbward.

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio, @magmill95 and @Lawrence_Ukenye.

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Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security.

Lockheed Martin employees and customers are bound by a common cause. Ennobled by our shared patriotism, we will do all that is necessary to protect American and allied interests. Together, we will strengthen deterrence and help ensure mission readiness today. Learn more.

 
Flashpoints

HUNDREDS OF AFGHAN CHILDREN ALONE IN U.S.: More than 230 Afghan children are unaccompanied in the U.S. as the number of evacuees leaving Kabul has slowed to a trickle of just one flight per week, NBC News reported.

Following a tumultuous American withdrawal from Afghanistan just more than a year ago, roughly 1,500 children arrived in the U.S. without their parents or relatives. While the U.S. hopes to reunite all children with their families, those plans have been complicated by the Taliban and a slow U.S. refugee processing system.

It’s unclear when the U.S. will be able to get the parents out of Afghanistan and reunited with their children.

Keystrokes

UKRAINE FEARS RUSSIAN CYBERATTACKS: Ukraine is preparing for “concerted” efforts by Russia to take down the nation’s critical energy and financial groups headed into the winter, a senior official said Friday.

GEORGII DUBYNSKYI, deputy minister of Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation, told reporters on the sidelines of the Billington CyberSecurity Summit that the Ukrainian government is worried that Russia was stepping up its attacks in cyberspace, even as it loses ground in the physical domain. He warned that attacks on the energy grid could be similar to Russian cyberattacks in 2015 and 2016, which temporarily turned off the lights in portions of Ukraine,” our own MAGGIE MILLER reported (for Pros!).

“The next phase is they will try to defeat our energy and financial options … before the winter they are trying to find their way how to undermine how to defeat our energy system and how to make these circumstances even more severe for Ukrainians,” Dubynskyi said.

IRAN HIT WITH MORE SANCTIONS: The U.S. has imposed sanctions on Iran following cyberattacks on Albania, a NATO ally, the Department of Treasury announced Friday.

“Iran’s cyber attack against Albania disregards norms of responsible peacetime State behavior in cyberspace, which includes a norm on refraining from damaging critical infrastructure that provides services to the public,” said BRIAN E. NELSON , under secretary of Treasury for terrorism and financial intelligence. “We will not tolerate Iran’s increasingly aggressive cyber activities targeting the United States or our allies and partners.”

Albania confirmed that Iran was responsible for a July 15 cyberattack that targeted public services and responded by severing diplomatic ties with Tehran on Wednesday.

The measure comes immediately after an Iranian firm was hit with U.S. sanctions on Thursday for coordinating military flights between Iran and Russia, including those that involved transporting military equipment like drones used in Moscow's war against Ukraine.

 

SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY.

 
 
The Complex

INDUSTRY APPEAL: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY and Ukraine’s Minister of Defense OLEKSII REZNIKOV are set to deliver a virtual address to the U.S. defense industry on Sept. 21 during a National Defense Industrial Association conference, our own LEE HUDSON writes in.

The duo is expected to discuss Ukrainian defense needs and how U.S. advanced technology and equipment are necessary for the fight.

Zelenskyy has made virtual speeches to the U.S. Congress and NATO allies, but this will be the first time the Ukrainian president has spoken directly to the U.S. defense industrial base.

RAYTHEON FIRM WINS CONTRACT: Collins Aerospace, a Raytheon subsidiary, was awarded a $583 million contract to produce a new version of the Army's Mounted Assured Positioning, Navigation and Timing Systems, also known as MAPS, Defense News’ COLIN DEMAREST reported.

The system allows soldiers to have an improved understanding of where they are on the battlefield, even when GPS signals are limited. The first version of the system, developed by GPS Source, has been deployed in Europe since 2019.

5G AND BLACK HAWKS?: Lockheed Martin and AT&T securely transferred health and usage data from a UH-60M Black Hawk via an AT&T 5G private cellular network and Lockheed’s 5G.MIL pilot network, Lee also wrote in.

The test demonstrated that 5G on the flight line could reduce maintenance operation time, Dan Rice, vice president of 5G.MIL Programs at Lockheed Martin tells Lee.

Right now, it takes Black Hawk crews about 30 minutes to remove the data cartridge from the helicopter, transport it to an operations center, and extract the data for analysis. But the recent test reduced the time required to less than 5 minutes, including cartridge removal.

On the Hill

RUBIO’S BALANCING ACT: Ahead of the midterms, Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) is walking a tightrope over former President DONALD TRUMP 's handling of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate, our own ANDREW DESIDERIO reports.

Rubio, a top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee, has joined most Republicans in disapproving of the FBI’s seizure of documents at the resort and downplayed the DOJ’s probe as a “storage issue,” while teaming up with Democrats to demand an assessment of potential damages to national security.

The Florida senator, who faces Rep. VAL DEMINGS (D-Fla.) in the November midterms, has seen the race tighten in recent weeks and faces stronger headwinds than other Republicans in the state who have sailed along behind Trump's home-state popularity and soaring GOP voter registration.

Sen. MARK WARNER (D-Va.), the committee’s chair, has vowed that he and Rubio would approach investigations regarding the classified documents in bipartisan fashion, which could further complicate the GOP Senator's desire to appeal to the former President's base.

Broadsides

CHINA’S AMB TO OHCHR: COOPERATION OVER: China's ambassador to the U.N. in Geneva said that Beijing would no longer cooperate with the U.N. Human Rights Office following an Aug. 31 report outlying human rights violations against Uyghurs in Xinjiang.

"The office closed the door of cooperation by releasing the so-called assessment," Ambassador CHEN XU said.

China has long faced criticism of human rights violations against Muslim minorities in Xinjiang, including by the top U.S. officials like SecState Blinken.

The choice to end U.N. human rights cooperation is among a series of recent reclusive moves from Beijing, which has reduced collaboration with international institutions and the West in light of criticism. China announced they'd be halting collaboration with the U.S.on climate change following Speaker NANCY PELOSI’s high-profile visit to Taiwan.

Transitions

— DAVID WALTON is now U.S. global malaria coordinator for Biden’s Malaria Initiative led by USAID. He most recently was senior director of global health at Butterfly Network and has spent almost two decades as a doctor at Brigham and Women's Hospital and co-founded and was the CEO of Build Health International.

— Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN has announced the following DOD nominations; Gen. JAMES GLYNN for appointment to the grade of lieutenant general, with assignment as deputy commandant for manpower and reserve affairs, Marine Corps Maj. Gen. FRANCIS DONOVAN for appointment to the grade of lieutenant general, with assignment as vice commander, U.S. special operations command, Marine Corps Reserve Brig. Gen. LEONARD ANDERSON IV for appointment to the grade of major general.

 

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What to Read

— BRYAN BENDER, POLITICO Magazine: The Struggling Arkansas Town That Helped Stop Russia in its Tracks

— FRANCIS FUKUYAMA, Journal of Democracy: Why Ukraine Will Win

—EMMA ASHFORD and MATTHEW KROENIG, Foreign Policy: What Does Biden’s Confrontational Speech Mean for U.S. Foreign Policy?

Monday Today

— The Henry L. Stimson Center, 10 a.m.: "Recalibrating US Extended Deterrence on the Korean Peninsula."

— The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 11:30 a.m.: "Kabul One Year Later."

— The Brooking Institution, 1:30 p.m.: "Technology and the security of democratic societies"

— The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 4 p.m.: "Book Launch – Surveillance State: Inside China's Quest to Launch a New Era of Social Control"

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who has a fun fact about the Red Hot Chili Peppers. In Brazil, the band's name is pronounced "hedgy hodgy chili peppy." Say it aloud. You're welcome.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

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Lockheed Martin is helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating our digital transformation. That means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins so you can anticipate maintenance and reduce downtime. It means deep knowledge of your missions. It means industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more.

 
 

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