Does Bangladesh’s PM still believe in democracy?

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Monday Oct 03,2022 08:49 pm
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By Nahal Toosi, Alexander Ward and Lawrence Ukenye

Prime Minister of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina Wazed arrives at the Elysee Palace.

Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina dismissed the idea that, like so many leaders in human history, she will have a hard time letting go of power having had it for so long. | Michel Euler/AP Photo

With help from Eric Geller and Daniel Lippman

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More than most world leaders, Bangladeshi Prime Minister SHEIKH HASINA has experienced the personal struggles that come with fighting for democracy. Now she’s defending her leadership against accusations she’s abandoning that mission.

Hasina’s father, SHEIKH MUJIBUR RAHMAN, was credited with leading Bangladesh to independence in 1971, a struggle that involved a war with Pakistan. Rahman held the presidency in 1975 when he, Hasina’s mother and more than a dozen other relatives were assassinated. Hasina was abroad at the time.

There were moments in the years afterward that, lost in the pain, she would forget to feed her children, Hasina told NatSec Daily in a recent interview in Virginia, tearing up at times. What gave her purpose was trying to fulfill her father’s dream of a free, democratic Bangladesh. “As long as I survive, I must work for the people,” she said.

These days, Hasina, who has been in power since 2009, faces skepticism from U.S. officials who worry she’s increasingly autocratic. Aides to President JOE BIDEN are so concerned about her crackdowns on dissidents, alleged malfeasance in Bangladeshi elections and other developments that they did not invite Bangladesh to Biden’s Summit for Democracy last year. (Hasina’s father, too, was accused of autocratic moves in his final years.)

Does Hasina still believe in democracy? She looked bewildered when asked. “Of course!” she said. Hasina cited her long struggle against military rule, pointing out that she’s done prison time in service of a more democratic Bangladesh. “Only during our tenure people [have] had every right to cast their vote,” she said. “I have seen how elections [were] manipulated.”

Hasina didn’t respond directly when NatSec Daily noted that even cartoonists and writers are getting imprisoned now in Bangladesh. She stressed instead that her country has had an impressive run under her leadership. According to the World Bank, Bangladesh became a lower-middle income country in 2015, although it has faced challenges from the Covid-19 pandemic and having to absorb hundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees fleeing violence in Myanmar since 2017.

Hasina, who gives her age as 76, dismissed the idea that, like so many leaders in human history, she will have a hard time letting go of power having had it for so long. She did, however, say she hasn’t fulfilled all her goals. For one thing, she’d like to see her country’s poverty rate drop further. “I care for power only if I can serve my people,” she said.

Can Hasina assure the world that a future Bangladeshi election –– one is expected in 2023 –– will be free and fair, and that she will step down if she loses? Of course, Hasina insisted. “If they don’t want me,” she said, “I don’t want to remain in power.”

 

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The Inbox

DUDE, WHERE’S MY BORDER?: The Kremlin admitted Monday that it hasn’t finalized the borders for two Ukrainian regions Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN claimed to annex last week.

“As for Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, we will continue to consult with the people who live in those regions,” government spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV told reporters Monday, refusing to elaborate on how that process would work.

It’s a setback for the Kremlin, even as the State Duma moves to “formally” approve Putin’s annexation request. Three of the four regions the Kremlin boss claimed to seize witnessed advances by the Ukrainian military over the weekend, most notably the recapture of Lyman, a railroad hub, in the eastern region of Donetsk.

ATACMS OVERSIGHT: Ukraine is offering the U.S. oversight of its target list in order to secure long-range rocket systems that Kyiv has long requested, CNN’s ALEXANDER MARQUARDT reported.

“The remarkable transparency essentially gives the US veto power over Ukrainian targeting of Russia and is meant to convince the administration that providing the critical weapons would not lead to strikes inside Russian territory,” he wrote, noting Biden administration fears that such an attack could instigate World War III.

Ukraine desperately wants the Army Tactical Missile Systems, known as ATACMS, which can travel about 186 miles — roughly four times the distance of U.S. provided HIMARS rockets. But to date, the U.S. insists that Ukraine doesn’t need ATACMS for this phase of the war.

KHERSON BREAKTHROUGH: Russia’s military acknowledged that Ukrainian forces have broken through its defenses in Kherson.

“With numerically superior tank units in the direction of Zolota Balka and Oleksandrivka, the enemy managed to forge deep into our defenses,” Defense Ministry spokesperson IGOR KONASHENKOV said in a Monday briefing. But, he continued, “Russian troops have occupied a pre-prepared defensive line and continue to inflict massive fire damage.”

RUSSIAN TROOPS SENT HOME: A military leader in Russia’s Khabarovsk was dismissed from his position after half of his newly-mobilized troops were sent home for not meeting the country’s draft requirements, Reuters’s LIDIA KELLY reported.

"In 10 days, several thousand of our countrymen received summons and arrived at the military registration and enlistment offices," said MIKHAIL DEGTYAREV, the governor of the Khabarovsk region. "About half of them we returned home as they did not meet the selection criteria for entering the military service."

The removal of YURI LAIKO , the commissar, is another data point highlighting the shambles of the Kremlin’s military mobilization. The unpopular Putin decision led to roughly 200,000 Russians to flee the country in hopes of avoiding the mandatory call-up.

AL-SHABAB LEADER KILLED?: Shortly after Somali authorities said al-Shabab leader ABDULLAHI NADIR was killed in a joint operation, U.S. Africa Command appeared to confirm the news.

In a Monday statement, AFRICOM announced that it conducted an airstrike on Oct. 1 in coordination with Somalia, with the operation taking place near Jilib, roughly 230 miles southwest of the capital, Mogadishu. The command’s initial assessment is that the strike killed an al-Shabab leader and that no civilians were injured or killed,” reads a Monday AFRICOM statement.

Nadir, considered one of the terrorist group’s most important leaders, had a $3 million bounty on his head.

“It is positive to kill a high-ranking leader. Doing so eliminates institutional knowledge, can sever links within a network, and (sometimes) removes a competent commander,” the Heritage Foundation’s JOSHUA MESERVEY texted NatSec Daily about the news.

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A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

 
Flashpoints

IRAN BLAMES U.S., ISRAEL FOR PROTESTS: Iran’s supreme leader AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI blamed the U.S. and Israel for protests in Iran in response to the death of MAHSA AMINI, claiming with no evidence that the demonstrations are part of foreign efforts to destabilize the regime.

“I say frankly that these incidents were designed by America, the fake Zionist regime, those who are on their payroll and some traitorous Iranians abroad who helped them," Khamenei said.

Those were Khamenei’s first public comments on the uprising and came shortly after state authorities clashed with protesters. Iranian state media claims that 41 people have died in protests, but estimates from other observers are far higher.

Meanwhile, demonstrators are struggling to activate the Starlink satellite-internet system to work around the Iranian regime’s internet crackdown. And the European Union is developing sanctions against Tehran and will likely vote on a package when the body meets again on Oct. 17.

AUSTRALIA RESCUE EFFORTS: Australia is planning to rescue the country’s women and children of ISIS fighters held in Syrian camps, Reuters’ SONALI PAUL reported.

The efforts would be similar to operations Australia launched in 2019 that led to the successful rescues of the children and grandchildren of ISIS fighters.

Keystrokes

ELECTION SECURITY THREATS: The Biden administration is concerned about the ways in which different election security threats are blending together, our own ERIC GELLER reports.

There are four major types of threats, CISA Director JEN EASTERLY told reporters during a Monday briefing. Those are cyberattacks from nation-states and criminals; insider threats from election workers with authorized access to equipment or sensitive information; physical security threats to election officials, such as harassment; and mis-and disinformation designed to undermine Americans’ confidence in the process.

But “these are all challenges that are interrelated,” said Easterly. “The threat actors who are attempting to breach election systems are the same ones who are conducting those influence operations that seek to sow discord across the country, and influence operations utilize information obtained illicitly through cyber activity or make false or exaggerated claims about breaches.”

So does CISA have the authorities that it needs to help protect elections? Yes, Easterly said. “I do believe we have what we need to support state and local election officials,” she told reporters. “They have not asked for any authorities from us.”

CHINA HACKERS INCREASINGLY TARGETING U.S.: Chinese hackers with connections to operatives indicted by a U.S. grand jury in 2020 have expanded efforts to target U.S. firms and government agencies, CNN’s SEAN LYNGAAS reported.

The Justice Department worked to uncover the cyber operations through a series of indictments, but the hackers have likely already cost American companies significant losses in intellectual property.

Both countries have claimed the other engages in cyber espionage as China recently accused the U.S. of spying on one of its research universities.

A July Senate report also accused Beijing of spying on the Federal Reserve to gain insight on the inner workings of U.S. monetary policy.

 

SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY.

 
 
The Complex

PENTAGON WORKING TO RESTOCK WEAPONS: The Defense Department is working to sign contracts with companies overseas to quickly backfill its supply of weapons after sending arms to Ukraine, our friends in Morning Defense (for Pros!) reported.

The model for producing the weapons at scale would rely on a network of foreign facilities, similar to the supply chain used for developing the F-35 fighter jet.

A larger pool of weapons manufacturers also fits into Pentagon’s long-term plan for arming Ukraine as the effort would provide Kyiv with a steady supply of weapons, reducing reliance on drawdowns from U.S. inventories.

The proposal would need congressional approval and could lead to clashes among lawmakers, many of whom prefer weapons to be manufactured on American soil as part of the White House’s Buy American mandate.

On the Hill

INHOFE IN ETHIOPIA: Sen. JIM INHOFE (R-Okla.), the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee (and who is retiring at the end of the year), traveled to Ethiopia over the weekend to meet with Prime Minister ABIY AHMED and other local leaders.

Inhofe has long cared about Ethiopia, traveling to the African nation last year and saying the country is “close to my heart.” He’s friendly with Abiy, having called him a “transformational leader,” and critical of the Biden administration’s response to the war.

Abiy’s forces have for years been part of a brutal conflict against anti-government rebels, including the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, a group Inhofe labels as terrorists. A ceasefire and thaw in the hot war ended in late August when fighting resumed, threatening to deepen a humanitarian crisis in one of Africa’s most powerful countries.

Photos showed that Sens. MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.) and JOHN BOOZMAN (R-Ark.) formed part of an Inhofe-led delegation.

Broadsides

ELON-GATE: ELON MUSK put forward his own four-point peace plan for Russia-Ukraine : The U.N. oversees elections in the supposedly annexed parts of Ukraine; Crimea officially becomes part of Russia; water is supplied to Crimea; and Ukraine vows to be neutral — that is, doesn’t want to join NATO.

The backlash from Ukrainian officials was swift. Kyiv’s envoy to Germany, ANDRIJ MELNYK, not so kindly told Musk to “Fuck off.” Then, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY put out a Twitter poll with only two response options for the question “Which @elonmsuk do you like more?”

The choices: “One who supports Ukraine” or “One who supports Russia.”

Well, that escalated quickly.

‘WHAT DID YOU DO FOR HIS FAMILY?’: The daughter and niece of two men freed from Venezuela this week in a prisoner swap blasted Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) for saying such a deal “puts Americans all over the world in danger.”

“I find that those comments were extremely unhelpful and misinformed.” ALEXANDRA FORSETH, the relative of ALIRIO ZAMBRANO and the niece of JOSE LUIS ZAMBRANO, said on CNN Monday. “I’m disappointed that a leader in our country is perpetuating this myth that getting our people home actually puts Americans at risk.”

Forseth also accused Rubio of not doing enough to help with the release: “He even had a constituent from his state that was released, and I would ask, what did you do for his family?”

The U.S. classified the seven individuals brought home in exchange for two convicted drug dealers, both nephews of Venezuelan President NICOLÁS MADURO, as wrongfully detained.

 

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Transitions

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: AMI MORGAN has joined the National Security Council as a director for strategic planning. Previously, Ami was the division chief for budget and policy at USAID’s Bureau for Conflict Prevention and Stabilization.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: CHRIS KENNEDY has joined the NSC on a four-month fellowship as a director for climate and environmental security. Kennedy is on detail from the State Department’s Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations.

— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: Col. MYLES CAGGINS III is joining the New Lines Institute as a nonresident senior fellow. He will join the Human Security Unit focusing on public information warfare and U.S. drawdowns and their aftermath.

NINA HACHIGIAN was named the first special representative for subnational diplomacy, helping the State Department connect to American and global cities. She was previously Los Angeles’ first deputy mayor for international affairs.

HENRY ROME started today at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy as a senior fellow focusing on Iran. He was previously the Eurasia Group’s deputy head of research and a director covering global macro politics and the Middle East.

OLIVIA ENOS started today as the Washington director for the Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong. She was previously a senior policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation’s Asia Center.

LISA CURTIS and JACKSON DIEHL have joined RadioFreeEurope/Radio Liberty’s board of directors. Curtis is a senior fellow and director of the Indo-Pacific Security program at the Center for a New American Security. Diehl was the deputy editorial page editor at the Washington Post until he retired in August 2021.

The Council on Foreign Relations has welcomed three new fellows. LIANA FIX, recently the program direct for international affairs at Körber-Stiftung in Berlin, will focus on Europe. JOSÉ MANUEL VIVANCO, who founded the Center for Justice and International Law, will focus on human rights. And Georgetown University professor JACOB WARE will research and write on terrorism issues.

What to Read

— DAVID CORTAVA, New Yorker: Inside Russia’s “Filtration Camps” in Eastern Ukraine

— JOHN CULVER, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: How We Would Know When China Is Preparing to Invade Taiwan

— ALICE HUNT FRIEND and SHARON WEINER, Texas National Security Review: Principals with Agency: Assessing Civilian Deference to the Military

Tomorrow Today

— The Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: "Intelligence community and intelligence committee reform"

— The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: "Iran: Protest or Revolution?"

— NDN, 1 p.m.: DAVID ROTHKOPF on Russia”

— The Heritage Foundation, 2:15 p.m.: U.S.-Uganda Partnership in a Turbulent Region: A Conversation with Uganda’s Minister of Foreign Affairs

— The United States Institute of Peace, 3 p.m.: "Twitter Space: What Comes Next for Russia, Ukraine and Europe’s Peace and Security"

— The Institute of World Politics, 4:30 p.m.: "Afghanistan Exfiltration 2021 –– When Diplomacy Goes Dark."

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

And thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who doesn’t believe in a democratic process for running this newsletter.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

 
 

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