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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Lara Seligman | | 
“Finland is the most prepared to join NATO of any nation in modern history,” said Douglas Hickey, U.S. ambassador to Finland. “They see it as they’re going to defend someone else as well as themselves.” | U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. Yvonna Guyette | With help from Lawrence Ukenye and Lee Hudson Subscribe here | Email Alex HELSINKI, Finland — Finland and Sweden will become official NATO members by Christmas, the U.S. ambassador to Finland predicted in a conversation with reporters and experts. Only three of NATO’s 30 members are left to ratify the two countries’ accessions to the alliance. Slovakia is expected to give the green light while Hungary and Turkey continue to string the applicants along. The general assumption is that they both will wait until 2023 to make a final decision, with Turkey remaining in a holding pattern until after general elections in June 2023. But DOUGLAS HICKEY , who was sworn into his role in April, said he’s optimistic NATO will have 32 members before the year is out. Conversations he’s had with his Hungarian counterpart in Helsinki led him to believe a positive vote will soon come, he told the group, warning the situation could change. But Hickey believes Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN doesn’t want to be the lone holdout, incentivizing him to move quickly on the issue. “I don’t think he wants to be on an island too long,” he told your host during a meeting as part of a trip organized and sponsored by the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Time was of the essence, he implored, especially after Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN ordered a partial mobilization of his military and threatened nuclear use. “We have to get this done. We have to stabilize this situation.” When Hickey was approached about becoming the ambassador to Finland, he called his friend JOHN KERRY about what the role would entail. The former secretary of State’s reply was “Russia, climate and NATO,” Hickey said. The climate portfolio takes up some of Hickey’s time, but Russia and NATO have dominated his agenda. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed Finland to join the alliance after decades of maintaining a relative independence, namely to maintain cordial ties with its neighbor. (And for good reason: Russia has invaded Finland three times over the past century.) The majority of the alliance welcomed the reversal, but Erdogan claimed that Helsinki and Sweden were harboring terrorists and inconsiderate of Turkey’s security concerns. The three sides hammered out their issues (read: dealt with Erdogan’s tantrum) during the June NATO Summit in Madrid. That pleased Hickey, who relayed that Turkey’s antics left Finland feeling like it “got punched in the face.” The bruises might still be healing, but that isn’t affecting Helsinki’s push to be an official NATO member or making Washington rethink its full-throated support. Hickey boasted about how Finland will be “accretive” to the alliance with a Navy built for littoral combat, complementing much of NATO’s blue-water fleets, and an Air Force that will soon include the F-35. “Finland is the most prepared to join NATO of any nation in modern history,” Hickey said. “They see it as they’re going to defend someone else as well as themselves.”
| | | | SIGN UP FOR CEPA FORUM 2022. Between September 27-29, the Center for European Policy Analysis will host an engaging series of discussions focusing on how Europe and North America can respond to Russia’s war in Ukraine and its implications for security and democracy. RSVP NOW . | | | | | | | | UKRAINE PLEADS FOR TANKS: Ukraine is asking urgently for modern tanks to help their forces seize on rapid gains in the northeast and take additional territory, but the West is dragging its feet, Lara reported alongside our own PAUL McLEARY and ERIN BANCO. The tanks have shot to the top of Kyiv’s wish list as Ukraine presses its gains in the northeastern Donbas region amid the shocking Russian collapse this month. The request took on new urgency this week after Putin announced that he would mobilize 300,000 additional troops for the fight in Ukraine, a major escalation of the campaign. The more modern American-made M-1 Abrams and German-made Leopard tanks would add a powerful punch that could help Kyiv’s forces capture and hold more ground, compared to the old Soviet-era tanks they currently operate, say experts and Ukrainian advisers. But top national security officials in both countries have hesitated to provide the tanks, in part due to the training and logistics challenges involved, according to U.S. officials, Ukrainian advisers and congressional aides. The M-1s, for example, are a completely different system than the Soviet-era tanks Ukraine currently operates, and require significant maintenance and logistics support. “It’s a pretty high hurdle to get Ukraine not only U.S.-made tanks but the parts to maintain them,” said one U.S. official, who like others interviewed for this article spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing conversations. “You don’t want to give them something that’s going to break down and run out of gas and they can’t refuel them.” Western-style tanks would provide a major upgrade to Kyiv’s armored force in terms of range, speed and fire control, allowing Ukrainian forces to hit a Russian target up to a mile and a half away and move before the enemy can shoot back, said retired Lt. Gen. BEN HODGES, a former commander of U.S. Army Europe. But the training required and logistics tail — an M-1 division can consume up to 600,000 gallons of fuel a day — could hinder Ukraine’s movement, he cautioned. “These are not rental cars, there’s a lot that goes with it,” Hodges said. “You are basically adding hundreds of additional things that would have to be carried along.… You look at a U.S. Army tank company today, there are thousands of gallons of fuel following behind them every day.” IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @alexbward. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio, @magmill95 and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | AN AIR FORCE FOR THE NRF? It’s been a year since the Afghan air force flew dozens of U.S.-donated aircraft across the border to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan as the Taliban overran Kabul last year — and the aircraft are still sitting there. As Lara scooped earlier this week, the U.S. is currently negotiating with the two Central Asian countries to trade the aircraft for help hunting terrorists in Afghanistan. NatSec Daily obtained an early copy of a new report from LUKE COFFEY at the Hudson Institute that provides some key context for these negotiations. He notes that Tajikistan harbors sympathies for the ethnic Tajik minority that comprises much of the National Resistance Front, the opposition group based in Afghanistan’s Panjshir Province that continues to fight against the Taliban. The Biden administration has been hesitant to support the NRF at least publicly and has yet to invite the leader, AHMAD MASSOUD , to Washington, D.C. But Coffey argues in his report that the U.S. and the international community must consider how to support the NRF, including formally transferring the former Afghan Air Force aircraft to the Tajik Air Force and helping the Tajiks develop a maintenance plan for the planes. The long-term objective, Coffey writes, would be “to ensure that the aircraft are available for NRF use in the future.” THWARTED ISIS SUICIDE ATTACK IN SYRIA: The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces successfully thwarted a planned ISIS suicide bomber attack on the al-Hol refugee camp earlier this week, U.S. Central Command announced today. The SDF forces interdicted seven ISIS fighters in two vehicles heading in the direction of the camp at approximately 12:25 a.m. on Sept. 20, according to a statement. "One vehicle — rigged with explosives and personnel wearing explosive suicide vests — prematurely exploded near the Um Fakik village, approximately 12 miles northeast of the intended target at al-Hol. This explosion alerted Syrian Democratic Forces operating in the area who then arrived within minutes and surrounded the second vehicle,” according to a CENTCOM statement. "Two men exited the second vehicle wearing suicide vests. One detonated his vest. Syrian Democratic Forces shot and killed the second man. The second vehicle was rigged with at least 50 kilograms of explosives.” Four ISIS fighters were killed in the engagement, and one is now in SDF custody. No SDF troops were killed or wounded. RUSSIAN MILITARY DIVIDED: The highest ranks of the Russian military are in disarray as Ukraine continues its rapid advances in the northeast, writes CNN’s KATIE BO LILLIS, with Putin himself giving directions to generals in the field and Russian officers arguing amongst themselves about decision-making in Washington. “Russia's military is divided over how best to counter Ukraine's unexpected battlefield advances this month, according to multiple sources familiar with US intelligence, as Moscow has found itself on the defensive in both the east and the south,” Lillis writes. “Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and western intelligence said — a highly unusual management tactic in a modern military that these sources said hints at the dysfunctional command structure that has plagued Russia's war from the beginning.” “Intelligence intercepts have captured Russian officers arguing among themselves and complaining to friends and relatives back home about decision-making from Moscow, one of these sources told CNN.” “And there are significant disagreements on strategy with military leaders struggling to agree on where to focus their efforts to shore up defensive lines, multiple sources familiar with US intelligence said.”
| | | ‘IT JUST DIDN’T WORK’: NatSec Daily wants to point out another interesting tidbit from the Hickey conversation: He believes Russia did try to harm Finland in cyberspace after its decision to join NATO. “I don’t think for a minute that the Russians didn’t try,” the U.S. ambassador to Finland said. “We assume the Russians didn’t do anything from a cyber perspective,” but it’s likely Moscow did do something, and “it just didn’t work.” Finland has a very digitized society that it’s protected diligently well over the years. Recent attacks on Finnish banks , for example, didn’t have much of an effect on the country’s financial sector. It’s therefore possible Russian hackers launched serious cyber offenses, only to have them repelled. Another possibility, per officials in Helsinki and Riga, is that Russia is just too tied up with the physical war that it can’t focus on the cyber one. Whatever the answer, many expect Russia to go big in cyberspace at some point down the line — it’s just a matter of when and how.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | | SHOW ME THE MONEY: Ukrainian advisers and Republican staffers are sounding the alarm this week because the Biden administration has not asked Congress to roll over authorization to ship another $2.2 billion worth of weapons and equipment for use in Ukraine after it expires at the end of the fiscal year. Top Pentagon officials stress that the money itself is not expiring, but Congress must re-authorize the ability to draw down equipment. The administration has requested lawmakers include $3.6 billion in new drawdown authority for Ukraine in a temporary continuing resolution to begin the fiscal year while negotiations continue on full-year spending bills. Congress will likely grant this request as well as attach emergency funding to the CR. The reason the administration has not asked Congress to roll over the existing authorization is because Democrats on the House Appropriations Committee conveyed that their preference was to let the old authorization expire and instead put in a new request for additional funds, a U.S. official told NatSec Daily. Either way, the White House does not anticipate any gaps in funding for Ukraine, the official said. But congressional staffers say it’s a bad look, and unnecessarily delays shipping much-needed aid to Ukraine. It also leaves the administration open to accusations it is trying to slow down aid to Kyiv in order to avoid provoking Putin, they say. The administration does not anticipate another drawdown before the end of the fiscal year. “All this is coming to a head when the Ukrainians have got momentum, and we’re hemming and hawing and wringing our hands,” one staffer said. DECISION TIME ON GRAY EAGLE: A bipartisan group of 17 House lawmakers sent a letter to Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN Wednesday demanding that the department speed up its monthslong review of whether to supply Ukraine with Gray Eagle drones. Pentagon leadership has been debating whether to send the drones since the spring, with concerns over technology transfer and their survivability keeping the issue alive, but with no resolution. “Risk assessments and mitigation should not come at the expense of Ukrainian lives,” the lawmakers wrote in the letter obtained by POLITICO, adding “should the decision be made to transfer Gray Eagles then it should be done expeditiously.” If the Pentagon decides not to provide the technology, “that needs to be communicated quickly and clearly to afford our Ukrainian partners the opportunity to make alternative plans,” the letter said. The letter was spearheaded by Congressional Ukrainian Caucus members Reps. MARCY KAPTUR (D-Ohio), BRIAN FITZPATRICK (R-Pa.), MIKE QUIGLEY (D-Ill.) and ANDY HARRIS (R-Md.).
| | | REPUBLICANS SLAM LANDMINE BAN: The top Republicans on the House and Senate Armed Services, Senate Foreign Relations and House Foreign Affairs panels are renewing their opposition to Biden's June decision to widely limit the use of anti-personnel landmines, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports. Sens. JIM INHOFE (R-Okla.) and JIM RISCH (R-Ind.) and Reps. MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) and MICHAEL MCCAUL (R-Texas) slammed limiting the use of mines — a move by Biden to reverse a more expansive Trump-era policy — and argued landmines "remain an important tool in modern warfare" in a letter to Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, SecDef Austin and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY scooped by Connor (for Pros!). "Considering the obvious operational benefits of anti-personnel landmines, the United States should not unnecessarily issue a policy depriving U.S. troops access to anti-personnel landmines currently in DoD stocks simply to pursue an ideal that our adversaries will not follow," the lawmakers wrote. "Implementing such a blanket policy seems particularly questionable when one considers that all landmines currently in the U.S. operational inventory already incorporate technologically advanced safeguards limiting harm to noncombatants." SPACE FORCE, NUCLEAR PICKS APPROVED: Senate Armed Services approved a swath of civilian and military nominees today, including Biden's pick to be just the second head of the Space Force in the service's brief history. Senators signed off on Lt. Gen. CHANCE SALTZMAN — now the deputy chief for operations, cyber and nuclear — to succeed Gen. JAY RAYMOND as chief of space operations, a post he's held since the service was stood up in 2019. SASC also approved Air Force Gen. ANTHONY COTTON to lead U.S. Strategic Command. And three civilian picks advanced to the full Senate: LAURA TAYLOR-KALE to be the Pentagon's industrial base policy chief, BRENDAN OWENS to oversee the department's energy, installations and environment programs and MILANCY HARRIS to be the Pentagon's No. 2 civilian intelligence official.
| | | RUSSIA, US DIPLOMATS FACE OFF: Russian and Western diplomats traded barbs over Moscow’s alleged war crimes in Ukraine on Thursday during the meeting of the United National Security Council, JOHN HUDSON and MISSY RYAN report for the Washington Post. “Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Russia’s withdrawal from the Ukrainian cities of Izyum and Bucha revealed gruesome torture and murder of Ukrainian civilians that could not be dismissed as the actions of a few bad actors,” Hudson and Ryan report. “‘Wherever the Russian tide recedes, we discover the horror that’s left in its wake,’” Blinken said. ‘We cannot, we will not allow President Putin to get away with it.’” “Russian Foreign Minister SERGEI LAVROV denied the charges and accused Ukrainian forces of killing civilians in the eastern Donbas region ‘with impunity.’” “He blamed the United States, France and Germany for not holding Ukraine accountable for alleged atrocities.” “‘The Kyiv regime owes its impunity to its Western sponsors,’ he said.”
| | | |   | | | | | | — KAREN DAHUT will join Google as the new public sector CEO on Oct. 31. She was previously sector president at Booz Allen Hamilton. — ROSHAN ROEDER will be promoted to corporate vice president and president of the defense systems sector at Northrop Grumman on Oct. 17. She is currently vice president and general manager of the company’s airborne multifunction sensors division.
| | | — PAUL MOZUR, ADAM SATARIANO, AARON KROLIK and ALIZA AUFRICHTIG, The New York Times: ‘They Are Watching’: Inside Russia’s Vast Surveillance State — JACK SHAFER, POLITICO: Why Does the Trump-Born Space Force Keep Stepping on Rakes? — MICHAEL SCHUMAN, The Atlantic: No More ‘Strategic Ambiguity’ on Taiwan
| | | — The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 10 a.m.: "Beyond the Nuclear Canon: Teaching the Bomb in the 21st Century" — The Hudson Institute, noon: "The Azerbaijan-Armenia Conflict and the American Interest." — The Middle Institute, 3 p.m.: His Excellency Rashad al-Alimi of the Republic of Yemen Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who will leave POLITICO before Finland and Sweden officially join NATO.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
