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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Lara Seligman, Paul McLeary and Andrew Desiderio | | 
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), left, speaks as Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) looks on during a news conference about refusing Russian annexation of any portion of Ukraine, Thursday, Sept. 29, 2022, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. | Mariam Zuhaib/AP Photo | With help from Lawrence Ukenye Subscribe here | Email Alex Western allies are figuring out their planned reactions to the Kremlin’s forced annexation of parts of eastern Ukraine expected to be unveiled Friday, as VLADIMIR PUTIN pushes to consolidate dwindling gains in his faltering war. Putin is slated to deliver a speech Friday where he will announce the annexation of four Russian-occupied regions, just days after widely condemned votes were held that were orchestrated to produce the results the Kremlin sought. In Washington, Sens. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.) and LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) unveiled legislation Thursday that would cut off military and economic aid to any country that recognizes the “annexed” territories as part of Russia. The legislation would also pressure the administration to punish Russia swiftly and could be attached to the annual defense policy bill in the coming weeks. “We are dealing with Hurricane Putin, for the lack of a better word,” Graham told reporters. “He's trying to rewrite the map of Europe. He's trying to do by force of arms what he can't do by process.” Added Blumenthal: “It is a land grab. It's a steal. And it is another craven brazen tactic by Vladimir Putin to test the West’s support for Ukraine, and we are having none of it.” On Wednesday, State Department spokesperson NED PRICE told reporters that “additional measures ” were coming in the days ahead. In the meantime, it doesn’t appear that President Joe Biden will order any change in approach to the war — it’ll be the same mix of reprimands for Russia and support for Ukraine. “This also doesn’t change our thinking on the outlook. We’ve always been prepared for the long haul, and the Russians have as well,” a senior administration official told POLITICO. The move to politically seize control of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in Ukraine’s south and east was relatively costless for Putin. He played to his domestic base and seemingly added legitimacy to his illegal invasion, experts said, while also potentially quelling some frustration at home among his nationalist base, which has been calling for him to go all-in on the war effort. The dictator knew there would be little, if any, change in the West’s response to the sham votes. The goal was “to have a similar situation to Crimea. No one agrees with it, but no one is going to do anything about it either. That would give him a revised victory — or enough of one — because he would have hobbled Ukraine,” said JEFFREY EDMONDS, who handled the Russia portfolio in the Obama administration’s National Security Council. The question now is whether Russia will change its tactics following the Friday announcement. One theory is that Putin, aware that his military is struggling mightily against a stiff Ukrainian resistance, might use the sham votes to claim the mission is accomplished and send his troops home, experts said. Few inside and outside the administration think that’s the likeliest option, though, especially since the Ukrainians will keep fighting to reclaim all of their territory even if the Russians want to stop, said MICK MULROY, a former Pentagon and CIA official. The other possibility — the one seen as far more plausible — is that Russia settles in for a long-term fight. “The Russian government and people are now forced to be all in. If [Putin] couldn't lose before, he certainly can't lose now,” Edmonds said. Whatever Putin’s rationale, his forced referendums and looming annexation will be met with stiff resistance from the U.S. and its allies. “We are dead set against it,” one Western diplomat, who asked to speak anonymously before their government could formulate an official response, told POLITICO. Read the full story by Alex, Lara, Paul and Andrew.
| | | | WATCH CEPA FORUM 2022. The Center for European Policy Analysis hosts dynamic conversations about how governments, businesses, and civil society across Europe and North America are collaborating to build a digital, democratic future. TUNE IN NOW. | | | | | | | | NATO: PIPELINES SABOTAGED: NATO agreed Thursday with European leaders that both Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 were purposely sabotaged by…someone. “All currently available information indicates that this is the result of deliberate, reckless, and irresponsible acts of sabotage,” the alliance said in a statement. “Any deliberate attack against Allies’ critical infrastructure would be met with a united and determined response.” It’s still unclear who, exactly, damaged the pipelines. CNN’s KATIE BO LILLIS, NATASHA BERTRAND and KYLIE ATWOOD reported earlier that European security officials watched Russian navy ships operating near the leak location — before there was any leak. “Russian ships routinely operate in the area, according to one Danish military official, who emphasized that the presence of the ships doesn’t necessarily indicate that Russia caused the damage,” they reported. “We see them every week,” the Dane said. “Russian activities in the Baltic Sea have increased in recent years. They’re quite often testing our awareness — both at sea and in the air.” WHO COULD TAKE OVER FROM PUTIN?: In the unlikely event that Putin is removed from power soon, who could take his place? POLITICO’s DOUGLAS BUSVINE takes a look at 12 possible successors — the Russian “dirty dozen,” if you will. Top of the list is NIKOLAI PATRUSHEV, the superspy. “The former head of the FSB spy agency, now secretary of the Security Council of Russia, has the advantage of sharing a worldview with Putin — one that is shot through with hostility toward the West in general, and toward the United States in particular,” Busvine wrote, noting that his views are “more extreme” than Putin’s. Runner up is DMITRY MEDVEDEV , who served as president for four years so Putin could pretend he was complying with constitutional term limits. Medvedev gave the presidency back to Putin, showing the despot he could be trusted. Perhaps his reward for decades of loyalty is the top job once again. Read Busvine’s full story for the entire list. PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY: The White House released its first-ever Pacific Partnership Strategy on Thursday, coming during a summit in Washington with Pacific island nations and as China seeks to become the top regional power. Per a fact sheet , the U.S. will commit to, among other things, boosting its diplomatic presence in the region, including increasing the number of embassies from six to nine; helping the islands deal with the ravages of climate change; bolstering maritime security; and assisting with connectivity upgrades. The summit got off to a rocky start when the Marshall Islands reportedly suspended talks to renew the Compact of Free Association Agreement (the administration said that wasn’t accurate) and the Solomon Islands wouldn’t sign on to a joint declaration (which they later decided to do). The administration’s hope is that the gathering, plus the summit, demonstrates America’s commitment to the Pacific islands — and makes the U.S. a more trustworthy partner than China. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @alexbward. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio, @magmill95 and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
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Lockheed Martin employees and customers are bound by a common cause. Ennobled by our shared patriotism, we will do all that is necessary to protect American and allied interests. Together, we will strengthen deterrence and help ensure mission readiness today. Learn more. | | | | | | NEW RUSSIAN ATROCITIES: An exhumation of a mass burial site in Izyum, Ukraine, revealed “that most of the 436 bodies had signs of violent death including gunshot wounds, broken limbs, bound hands and amputated genitalia,” the Wall Street Journal’s STEPHEN KALIN reported. “At least three other burial sites have been found in other liberated cities of Kharkiv, the area encompassing Izyum.” It’s yet another sign that Russia continues to commit mass atrocities wherever it goes in Ukraine — indicating that Bucha-like horrors are a feature of the invasion. “The gravesite, just off the main road into Izyum from the north, abuts a formal cemetery named Shakespeare. Hundreds of small mounds of the forest’s sandy soil are marked with wooden crosses bearing numbers and in some cases names and dates of birth and death. All around are trenches dug by the Russians and abandoned ahead of the Ukrainian advance,” Kalin reported.
| | | CYBER DEFENSES WORK: Russia has launched cyberattack after cyberattack against Ukraine since the Feb. 24 invasion, but Moscow’s lack of success in bringing Kyiv to heel online shows that cyberdefenses can work, Britain’s cyber chief said Thursday. "But if the Ukrainian cyber defense teaches us a wider lesson — for military theory and beyond — it is that, in cybersecurity, the defender has significant agency. In many ways you can choose how vulnerable you can be to attacks," LINDY CAMERON , CEO of the National Cyber Security Center, the cyber arm of GCHQ, told the Chatham House think tank in London on Thursday. "This activity has provided us with the clearest demonstration that a strong and effective cyber defense can be mounted, even against an adversary as well prepared and resourced as the Russian Federation." Cameron called cyber operations since the invasion “probably the most sustained and intensive cyber campaign on record,” as reported by ZDNet’s DANNY PALMER.
| | | DRONE DELAY: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report that a Navy undersea drone program, Orca, is $242 million over budget and three years late, per the Government Accountability Office. The Orca program is designed to lay undersea mines to prevent an adversary from gaining access to strategic waterways or entry points on land. The Navy and Boeing are negotiating new delivery dates, but the first five vehicles are expected to arrive between February and June of 2024.
| | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– SHAHEEN TO BE OSCE OBSERVER: Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) will travel to Bosnia and Herzegovina as an electoral observer for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Parliamentary Assembly. After that, she will visit Albania for the first time to speak with officials about European Union accession talks and meet with Afghan refugees in the country. “I look forward to returning to the Western Balkans at a pivotal moment for Europe. Affirming U.S. support to our partners in the Balkans is especially critical as we experience the most precarious military crisis in Europe since World War II,” she told NatSec Daily in a statement. Shaheen, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s panel on Europe, is also co-chair of the NATO Observer Group alongside Sen. THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.). She joined him and Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) in April for a visit to Serbia, Bosnia, Kosovo and Belgium. SHAMING IRAN OVER AMINI DEATH: Sens. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.) and JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.) are introducing a resolution condemning Iran after the country’s “morality police” detained 22-year-old MAHSA AMINI, who later fell into a coma and died, Desiderio reported. Her death set off a wave of unprecedented protests that the hardline government has struggled to control. The U.S. and other Western nations have publicly backed the demonstrations and blasted Iran for the killing of Amini and its crackdown on the protests, including efforts to shut down internet access. The non-binding measure has dozens of bipartisan co-sponsors and calls on Iran to end its “systemic persecution” of women. It also praises the protesters, many of whom have suffered from the government’s violent crackdown. CICILLINE LEADS MIDEAST PANEL: Rep. DAVID CICILLINE (D-R.I.) will now chair the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s panel on the Middle East, North Africa and Counterterrorism, taking over for the departing Rep. TED DEUTCH (D-Fla.). “At a time of instability around the world, including in the Middle East, I believe that it is more important than ever that we work together, as Members of the Committee, to do everything we can to address humanitarian crises, human rights abuses, and political upheaval throughout the region,” he said in a statement.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | | TELL PUTIN TO STOP NUKE THREATS: U.S. officials should be pleading with their counterparts in India and China to join the world in telling Putin that his nuclear threats are a step too far, people inside and outside the administration said. “They could let Mr. Putin know what a disastrously bad idea any use of nuclear weapons would be,” a U.S. official involved in nonproliferation policy told our own BRYAN BENDER. “They should do it. I hope they would.” Similar requests are going out to Russia’s regional friends and foes alike. “We’d made the point in a number of conversations with countries in the Indo-Pacific region — ally, partner, or otherwise — of the importance of speaking with one voice against the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine,” a State Department official added. “Every country has a responsibility to lend its voice.” Biden’s team is also working to pass a resolution at the United Nations to condemn Putin’s actions, perhaps finding a way to circumvent the U.N. Security Council, where Russia has veto power.
| | | — MICHAEL BAYER, president and CEO of Dumbarton Strategies, will be the National Defense Industrial Association’s new board chair beginning on Oct. 1, serving a two-year term. LISA DISBROW, former Air Force undersecretary, will take over for Bayer as vice chair. — MATT DUSS is joining the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace as a visiting scholar in the American Statecraft Program. The foreign policy adviser for Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) will leave his current post on Oct. 14. — ZACHARY KARABELL was named the Eurasia Group Foundation’s new board chair. Karabell is the president of River Twice Capital and the founder of the Progress Network at the New America Foundation.
| | | |   | | | | | | — JOEL SCHECTMAN and BOZORGMEHR SHARAFEDIN, Reuters: How the CIA failed Iranian spies in its secret war with Tehran — JAMES KIRCHICK, The Atlantic: How the Anti-war Camp Went Intellectually Bankrupt — German Marshall Fund and Bertelsmann Foundation: Transatlantic Trends 2022
| | | — The Middle East Institute, 9 a.m.: "How Protests in Iran Shape an Uncertain Future." — The Brookings Institution, 9 a.m.: "Global China: US-China relations through the lens of technology competition" — The Atlantic Council, 3 p.m.: "A conversation with Canadian Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Dave Brown, who is 13th on the list to lead Russia after Putin.
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