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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Lara Seligman and Matt Berg | | 
Pyongyang launched its fifth missile in two weeks last night, this one an intermediate-range weapon that flew directly over Japan, landing harmlessly in the Pacific Ocean. | Lee Jin-man/AP Photo | With help from Lawrence Ukenye, Paul McLeary and Andrew Desiderio Subscribe here | Email Alex Alright, North Korea, you had our curiosity. Now you have our attention. Pyongyang launched its fifth missile in two weeks last night, this one an intermediate-range weapon that flew directly over Japan, landing harmlessly in the Pacific Ocean. It’s the most provocative North Korean action since it fired an intermediate-range missile in January that could reach Guam, and the first time it has launched a missile over Japan since 2017. The White House labeled the test a “ dangerous and reckless decision.” Experts and U.S. officials speculate that North Korean leader KIM JONG UN was trying to send a message that it’s angry after American and South Korean militaries just held their largest joint drills in five years. Pyongyang perceives the exercises as indicative of an existential threat — a rehearsal for an invasion. The launch was also likely designed to send a signal to Tokyo, after the recent resumption last week of trilateral anti-submarine exercises between Japan, South Korea and the U.S., said ELLEN KIM of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “They see this growing trilateralism between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo as targeted at North Korea,” she said. In response to the test, four U.S. and four South Korean warplanes dropped a pair of targeted bombs on an uninhabited island in the Yellow Sea. U.S. and Japanese fighter jets also flew together over the Sea of Japan. Washington insiders are now asking: Is this kind of missile launch a one-off, or is Pyongyang instigating a crisis? Kim believes it’s the latter. “This is another level-up of North Korean provocation, indicating that we might be in a North Korean provocation cycle” for the first time since the “fire and fury” days of 2017, she said. The timing of the tests is a bit awkward, coming just before China is due to kick off its 20th National Congress in which Chinese leader XI JINPING is expected to seek an unprecedented third term. The timing indicates Pyongyang is not pleased with the support it has received lately from Beijing on Covid and other issues, said RANDY SCHRIVER, a former top Pentagon official focused on Asia. “They often do these things to get attention,” Schriver said. “They use provocation in place of diplomacy.” North Korea’s aggression is another reminder that President JOE BIDEN’s approach to the country — being open to non-existent talks while reinforcing alliances with Seoul and Tokyo — simply isn’t working. It’s reminiscent of the “strategic patience” approach of the Obama years. “The Biden approach is marginally more open to engagement than the strategic patience approach, but progress with North Korea will require a much more radical shift,” — something akin to how former President DONALD TRUMP engaged directly with Kim, said the U.S. Institute of Peace’s FRANK AUM. Anything less is dangerous, he continued, because Pyongyang now has a strong nuclear program and demonstrated the ability to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile that could hit the U.S. Plus, ignoring North Korea, as the Biden administration basically is, tells Pyongyang “that in order to have a higher place on the U.S. agenda, it needs to conduct provocative acts that gain headlines,” Aum said. But others contend that it’s not Washington that is ignoring Pyongyang, but the other way around. The Biden administration has reached out to Kim’s government multiple times but gotten no response, said Kim. “It’s been North Korea that’s refused to talk with Washington and Seoul,” Kim said. “So there is not much to do except the U.S. trying to reassure its allies of their security commitment to them and to send a clear signal that the U.S. will defend them against North Korea." The chances that Biden and his team change course are unlikely. They are swamped with the Ukraine war and prefer to focus on grander issues like competing against China and curbing climate change. NatSec Daily has heard that there’s simply no appetite for a new policy, even if one might be required. After all, engaging in high-stakes diplomacy with North Korea is a very high-risk prospect with few political benefits.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | BIDEN-ZELENSKYY CALL: NatSec Daily and PAUL McLEARY first reported that Biden and Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY would hop on a call today. It comes as Kyiv hopes to convince Washington to give it powerful, long-range missiles, promising the U.S. oversight over the target list. The administration fears giving the long-range missiles to Ukraine might lead Kyiv to hit areas inside Russia, possibly instigating World War III. Hours later, the Pentagon announced a new $625 million security assistance package for Ukraine which includes rockets, howitzers and artillery rounds. PUTIN’S NUCLEAR TRAIN?: Articles in the British press, like the one, suggested that a Russian convoy carrying nuclear weapons was headed to Ukraine’s border — potentially a sign that VLADIMIR PUTIN would soon order a strike. If true, that’s scary AF. But some analysts aren’t convinced the much-feared train is carrying the bomb. “This is not the way to transport nuclear weapons!” JEFFREY LEWIS of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies noted on Twitter , saying it would require specialized railcars. Lewis later told NatSec Daily that he was 99 percent sure the images in both articles don’t show a nuclear weapons convoy heading to the front. They could be vehicles belonging to the 12th Chief Directorate, but where they’re going is unclear. “We've already seen at least one case of a strategic forces guys being sent to the front as cannon fodder. So, really, anyone's guess,” Lewis told your host. BRING (REACTORS) TO LIFE: Europe’s largest nuclear power plant may come back online sooner than anticipated. In an interview with the AP, Energoatom President PETRO KOTIN, who runs the state nuclear facility, said Ukraine is considering restarting two of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant’s reactors just weeks after it shut down to avoid a radiation disaster . An official decision could come as soon as Wednesday. Restarting the reactors — which were fully shut down on Sept. 11 and are currently occupied by Russian troops — would ensure its safety, officials say. With looming winter temperatures and extreme conditions, bringing the reactors to life is critical. “If you have low temperature, you will just freeze everything inside. The safety equipment will be damaged,” Kotin said. “So you need heating, and the only heating is going to come from the working reactor.” IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. Make sure to welcome Matt during his first week! While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio, @magmill95, @ericgeller, @johnnysaks130 and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security.
Lockheed Martin employees and customers are bound by a common cause. Ennobled by our shared patriotism, we will do all that is necessary to protect American and allied interests. Together, we will strengthen deterrence and help ensure mission readiness today. Learn more. | | | | | | BASHING THE BRASS: Prominent Russians have levied criticism levied at top Russian commanders for their withdrawal from Lyman, a strategically critical town in eastern Ukraine, a day after Putin declared the annexation of the area, according to a BBC report. But the harsh words didn’t come from the usual anti-war suspects. Staunch supporters of Putin and the war rose up to vocally condemn the government’s military leaders for losing the town, a rare public denunciation nearly eight months into the war. One attack was pointed directly at General ALEXANDER LAPIN, leader of Russia's Central Military District, and other top officers: "Were it up to me, I would have demoted Lapin to private, stripped him of his awards, given him an assault rifle and sent him to the front to wash away his shame with blood," said RAMZAN KADYROV, leader of the Chechnya Republic, in a Telegram post on Saturday.
| | | UNMANNED EW VESSEL: The world’s first unmanned surface vessel with electronic warfare capabilities has been developed, Turkey’s acquisition chief said Tuesday, per C4ISRNet’s BURAK EGE BEKDIL. The Marline SIDA was developed between two companies, Aselsan and Sefine. The vessel will be used in off-shore and open-sea missions.
| | | MARINES HATE FY24 DECOMMISSIONING: The Marine Corps is railing against the Navy’s plan to decommission amphibious ships in fiscal year 2024. The Navy may ask to cut the amphibious ships, known as LSDs, in fiscal 2024 as well as the Flight II San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock which is supposed to replace the LSDs. Even though the Marines say those ships help project power and garner goodwill among friends, “the Navy, facing a tight budget and large bills to restore these amphibious ships, would rather cut its losses and reinvest the money into creating a larger and more sophisticated inventory of weapons to win a potential fight against China,” Defense News’ MEGAN ECKSTEIN reported.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | | CONGRESS ABROAD: The House and Senate are on recess until after the election, so that means lawmakers who aren’t up for reelection are heading overseas for CODELs, conferences and other engagements, our own ANDREW DESIDERIO writes in. Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) is in Poland this week where he’s attending the Warsaw Security Forum. Much of the gathering has obviously been focused on Ukraine, but Murphy made some interesting comments when it comes to Africa and what he calls the “authoritarian allies” of the U.S. “Unfortunately, administration after administration, the U.S. exposes itself with some pretty clearly hypocritical behavior” when it comes to supporting democracy and human rights in countries that receive U.S. security assistance, Murphy said. “I have counseled this administration, all friends of mine, to be more consistent.” Murphy has long encouraged a harder line on human rights and has even called out the Biden administration for sending military aid to Egypt despite Cairo’s failure to live up to the human-rights conditions put in place by Congress.
| | | WARREN TARGETS BROOKINGS: Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) sent a letter to the Brookings Institution’s interim president, AMY LIU, to ask how the think tank ensures intellectual independence after it receives foreign funds. “I remain concerned that these foreign governments — as well as the many private sector corporations and wealthy individuals that are listed as Brookings contributors — can use Brookings and other think tanks to covertly peddle their influence before Congress and the administration,” she wrote. Warren’s interest in Brookings was piqued following news that the former president, retired Gen. JOHN ALLEN, was under investigation by the Justice Department for violating lobbying laws by advocating for Qatar — a charge he firmly denies. Warren first sent a letter to Brookings in July following that revelation. Think tanks have long maintained that the foreign funding influences the kinds of projects they work on, but not the conclusions. But there’s been growing concern in official Washington, especially since the Allen news, that foreign policy-focused think tanks might be captured by foreign capitals.
| | | |   | | | | | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: RAMON ESCOBAR has joined the NSC to work on regional initiatives in the Western Hemisphere. Ramon previously served as an Economic Officer at the U.S. Embassy in Mexico City.
| | | — MICHAEL WAHID HANNA and DELANEY SIMON, POLITICO Magazine: A Dangerous Idea to Punish Putin — JUDY DEMPSEY, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Ukraine Exposes Europe’s Competing Narratives About Russia — ROBERT KAPLAN, Foreign Affairs: The Downside of Imperial Collapse
| | | — The Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, 8 a.m.: In-Person Small Business Breakfast: KIMBERLY BUEHLER — The Atlantic Council, 8 a.m.: "The Japan-Africa dialogue, a follow-up for the eighth Tokyo International Conference on African Development." — The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 12 p.m.: “#NAFO and Winning the Information War: Lessons Learned from Ukraine” Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is running out of “strategic patience” with us already.
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Lockheed Martin is helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating our digital transformation. That means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins so you can anticipate maintenance and reduce downtime. It means deep knowledge of your missions. It means industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
