|
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | | 
The problem is North Korea hasn’t responded positively to President Joe Biden’s play. Instead, Pyongyang broke the yearly and daily records for missile tests and is expected to conduct a seventh nuclear detonation in the coming weeks. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo | With help from Nahal Toosi, Lee Hudson and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt President JOE BIDEN’s strategy for North Korea isn’t getting traction in Pyongyang. But it’s unclear any other approach would prove more successful. U.S. officials have said they would meet with their North Korean counterparts anywhere, including in Pyongyang — and without preconditions — to talk through a slew of nuclear and non-nuclear issues. At the same time, Washington has improved relations with its regional allies in Seoul and Tokyo and resumed joint military drills that were downsized during the Trump years. It’s an approach that borrows both from BARACK OBAMA’s “ strategic patience ” and DONALD TRUMP’s summit-level diplomacy with North Korean leader KIM JONG UN. The problem is North Korea hasn’t responded positively to Biden’s play. Instead, Pyongyang broke the yearly and daily records for missile tests and is expected to conduct a seventh nuclear detonation in the coming weeks. In the most recent barrage Wednesday, Kim ordered an intercontinental ballistic missile launch that drew condemnations from the U.S. and its allies . A senior administration official, granted anonymity to speak about sensitive internal discussions, told NatSec Daily on Thursday that “we’re looking at potential additional measures to hold the DPRK accountable.” The official used the acronym for North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Hours later, during a meeting with his South Korean counterpart, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN said any nuclear attack by North Korea on the U.S. or its allies “will result in the end of the Kim regime.” The question is if those punishments and threats will stop North Korea from firing off more projectiles. “Kim Jong Un isn’t ready to talk. He has a checklist of weapons he wants to perfect first,” said Wilson Center Fellow JEAN LEE, the former Pyongyang bureau chief for the Associated Press. For now, Biden administration officials say there’s no need to change course, a different senior administration official told NatSec Daily on Tuesday. North Korea “is a profoundly difficult policy challenge,” the official said. “We are not in any kind of place that we'd like to be on it. But the alternatives are far worse for the United States and for our allies and partners and for global norms.” That hasn’t stopped former officials and experts from offering ideas of how to shake up the strategy. ANTHONY RUGGIERO, who worked on North Korea in Trump’s National Security Council, said Biden’s team should rekindle the sanctions regime that has atrophied since 2018. That would both help the long-term goal of denuclearization while in the short term starve Kim of finances for his arsenal. “The main issue is North Korea is constantly adapting to the sanctions. If the U.S. does not respond then the sanctions are not as powerful,” Ruggiero said. North Korea, however, is the fourth-most sanctioned country on Earth , and still built a dangerous nuclear program amid the pressure. Ruggiero, though, is confident North Korea can be brought to heel if put under even more economic strain. “U.S. sanctions are stronger than U.N. sanctions which were whatever China would accept. The best the U.S. will get in the U.N. Security Council now is the designation of North Korean companies, banks, vessels and individuals. The Biden team should use that diplomatic capital to implement U.S. sanctions,” he said. Others suggest isolation and deterrence don’t work. Washington and Seoul could ramp down their exercises again, said the U.S. Institute of Peace’s FRANK AUM. And then, once tensions have lowered, move toward “a more full-throated peace offensive that offers unilateral conciliatory gestures to get North Korea to reciprocate.” Per Aum, that could include a moratorium on strategic-asset deployments, declaring an official end to the Korean War, reciprocal sanctions relief for denuclearization measures and ending a ban on U.S. citizens traveling to North Korea. But previous diplomatic agreements with North Korea ultimately failed . And Trump’s efforts to deal with Kim directly also didn’t work as three face-to-face meetings never produced a true pathway to denuclearization. This is why some experts say the only thing left to do is recognize North Korea as a nuclear state and improve relations where possible. The Biden administration and most experts reject that proposal, though, because they say it would incentivize other nations to get the bomb and allies would reject such a policy shift. It’s also unclear if North Korea would quit its provocations; it could just as easily decide it has the green light to do whatever it wants.
| | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | | | | LOCAL LEADERS ABDUCTED: Russia has held dozens of local Ukrainian leaders in captivity since February in an attempt to control towns its troops have taken over, the Associated Press’ YURAS KARMANAU reports . Many of those captured have been abducted, threatened and beaten in attempts to force them to collaborate with Russian forces, a tactic human rights experts believe may constitute a war crime. Of more than 50 local leaders abducted — including 34 mayors — at least 10 people remain in captivity. “The bullying and threats did not stop for a minute. They tried to force me to continue leading the city under the Russian flag, but I refused,” Melitopol Mayor IVAN FEDOROV , who was released in a prisoner exchange, told the AP. “They didn’t beat me, but day and night, wild screams from the next cell would tell me what was waiting for me.” LOOK AT ME NOW: Biden might regret giving the cold shoulder to the Chinese ambassador to the U.S. — who just became one of the more powerful people in the country, our own PHELIM KINE reported late Wednesday . QIN GANG was limited to meetings with just a handful of U.S. officials for months after he arrived in Washington in September 2021, according to two people with knowledge of the interactions, despite repeated requests for more high-level sit-downs. The White House rejected this characterization of the visit, saying senior officials have regularly engaged with Qin. The Biden administration’s reluctance to engage may come back to haunt it. Last week, Qin was appointed to the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee — a post that places him close to Chinese President XI JINPING’s inner circle and could put Qin on the path to become foreign minister. REPUBLICANS OPPOSE UKRAINE AID: While most Americans still support helping Ukraine in its war against Russia, Republican opposition to military and financial aid is growing, a new Wall Street Journal poll found . Nearly one-third of respondents believe the Biden administration is doing too much to help Ukraine, up from just 6 percent of respondents in a March poll. The uptick can be attributed mostly to Republicans, with 48 percent believing too much aid is being given to Ukraine — an eightfold increase from March. The findings come as Republican lawmakers weigh the possibility of slashing aid to Ukraine if they take control of Congress. House Minority leader KEVIN McCARTHY vocally backed the idea of refusing to send a “blank check” to Ukraine, while Senate Minority leader MITCH McCONNELL his support for ongoing aid to the country shortly afterward. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33 . While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio , @magmill95 , @ericgeller , @johnnysaks130 and @Lawrence_Ukenye .
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: Competitive capabilities for America’s next strategic tanker.
Lockheed Martin and Airbus announced the LMXT’s boom will be manufactured in Arkansas, reinforcing that the LMXT will be built in America for Americans by Americans. Learn more. | | | | | | NUCLEAR PLANT SHUTDOWN: Shelling damaged the power lines connecting the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to the grid in Ukraine on Thursday, forcing Europe’s largest nuclear plant to rely on emergency diesel generators again, the Associated Press’ HANNA ARHIROVA reports . The plant has relied on backup generators to cool its reactors multiple times due to ongoing fighting. Generators can keep the plant going for just over two weeks, state nuclear power company Energoatom said on its Telegram channel. “The countdown has begun,” Energoatom said. The International Atomic Energy Agency said the plant’s recent shutdown underscores “the extremely precarious nuclear safety and security situation at the facility and the urgent need to establish a protection zone around it.” UKRAINE GAINS IN KHERSON: There have been “spectacular changes in the territorial control” of Ukraine as Russian troops struggle to fight with a dwindling supply of low-quality weapons, a Western official told reporters, including our own CRISTINA GALLARDO. Moscow’s retreat from the Kherson region is just that — a military retreat, though it’s being conveyed as an evacuation of the area for safety reasons, said the official, who provided the briefing on condition of anonymity. Most Russian commanders in Kherson have now crossed over to the east side of the Dnipro River, “leaving demoralized and leaderless men to face Ukrainian assaults,” they added. “The most glaring failure in Russia’s inventory is its increasingly critical shortage of artillery ammunition,” the official said. “In the Russian way of war, artillery enables everything else.”
| | | WE’RE WATCHING YOU: TikTok updated its European privacy policy to clarify that employees around the world, including in China, can access users’ data, The Guardian’s DAN MILMO reports . In addition to China, staff in Brazil, Canada, China, Israel, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea and the U.S. — where European user data is stored — can access the data. According to TikTok, the reason is simple: To provide a “consistent, enjoyable and safe” user experience by checking algorithms, recommending content and detecting automated accounts. The policy update comes amid political and regulatory concerns that have engulfed the Chinese-owned social media giant for years, being widely accused of accessing user data for spying . Just a couple weeks ago, it was revealed that TikTok’s parent company planned to use the app to monitor the location of specific American citizens .
| | | STEPPING UP: The Army is altering tactics after missing its recruiting goal by 25 percent or 15,000 soldiers this year. A new initiative will bring potential recruits onto Army posts to experience a day in the life of a soldier, Army Chief of Staff Gen. JAMES MCCONVILLE told LEE HUDSON. The idea is to expose people who may not be aware of what the Army has to offer. The service says it’s also receiving positive feedback on the Future Soldier Preparatory Course that launched this summer. The course assists recruits by offering both academic and fitness instruction ahead of basic training. Participants are chosen from those who did not score high enough on the Army standardized test or did not pass the fitness test and must meet all other qualifications for enlistment. The pilot program is designed as an extra push to attain the remaining prerequisites. McConville said the Army is looking to increase the program because out of the 1,200 people who have completed the course, 90 to 95 percent have continued on to basic training. OUT TO PASTURE: Several admirals at the Naval Submarine League’s annual symposium in Washington this week fretted that dozens of boats are being sidelined with lengthy repair periods while others are aging out, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report. The issues affect both attack and ballistic missile subs. “I’ll be real about this,” Rear Adm. JONATHAN RUCKER, program executive officer for attack submarines, told reporters. “Of the 50 attack submarines we have, 18 of them are either in maintenance or waiting to go in maintenance … we should be at 10.” In the case of Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines, the Navy is supposed to have 10 out of 18 total ready to go to sea at any time. But Rear Adm. SCOTT PAPPANO, the program executive officer for strategic submarines, said that goal probably won’t be met by the end of the decade, thanks to plans to retire some aging Ohio boats while waiting for the Columbia boats to enter the fleet in 2030. In order to get as close to that magic number as possible, five of the Navy’s oldest Ohio subs could receive a three-year life extension in order to keep more boats in the water. It’s an 18-month upgrade process that would give the Navy some room when the Ohios are retiring faster than the Columbias can replace them.
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S 2nd ANNUAL DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/16: The United States is facing a defining moment in the future of its defense, national security and democratic ideals. The current conflicts and developments around the world are pushing Washington to reshape its defense strategy and how it cooperates with allies. Join POLITICO for our second annual defense summit, “At a Crossroads: America’s Defense Strategy” on November 16 in person at the Schuyler DC or join online to hear keynote interviews and panels discussing the road ahead for America’s national security. REGISTER HERE . | | | | | | | | NDAA ALL THE WAY: Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) is considering tacking his legislation to ease approvals of oil and gas infrastructure along with clean energy projects onto the must-pass National Defense Authorization Act. "I've tried to put it in the continuing resolution, and I'm working now on getting it in the National Defense Authorization,” Manchin said Wednesday in remarks at Stanford’s Global Energy Forum , where he appeared remotely. Manchin has previously demurred on whether he’d specifically push to attach his permitting proposal to the defense measure, our own JOSH SIEGEL and DEBRA KAHN report . KYIV VISIT: Sens. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.) and ROB PORTMAN (R-Ohio) visited Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, becoming the latest of a series of congressional contingents to travel to the Ukrainian capital.
| | | SCHOLZ SCRUTINIZED: Allies in Germany, Europe and the U.S. aren’t too confident in German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ’s ability to deliver a clear and coherent message about where his country and the West stand during his trip to Beijing on Friday, The Washington Post’s LOVEDAY MORRIS, EMILY RAUHALA and JOHN HUDSON report . Observers worry that Scholz, who is traveling alongside a delegation of business leaders, will put too much emphasis on economics, similar to former chancellor ANGELA MERKEL’s mercantilist approach to foreign policy — which caused Germany to become reliant on Russian energy. Some allies think Scholz, the first G-7 leader to visit Beijing since the start of the pandemic, is out of step with Europe’s vision of rethinking its ties with China. “There is a little bit of shock across the continent. And this serves China’s interest in dividing Europe,” BONNIE GLASER, director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told the Post. “There is concern in Washington, as well. The United States is feeling like this is a moment where we all have to be aligned.”
| | | |   | | | | | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: ALEJANDRA GONZALEZ is leaving the White House on Friday, where she was special assistant for the senior director of Western Hemisphere affairs at the NSC, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. She will be special adviser to the deputy to the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations JEFF PRESCOTT. — Israeli Prime Minister YAIR LAPID called BENJAMIN NETANYAHU to congratulate him on his election win. Now it’s up to the former premier to form a government and return to power.
| | | — OLAF SCHOLZ, POLITICO: We don’t want to decouple from China, but can’t be overreliant — TAMAR JACOBY, The Los Angeles Times: Kyiv’s answer to Putin’s drones is resistance and resilience — KATHERINE YON EBRIGHT, Brennan Center for Justice: Secret War: How the U.S. Uses Partnerships and Proxy Forces to Wage War Under the Radar
| | | — The Washington International Trade Association, 10 a.m.: "No Chips for You! America's New Export Controls on Semiconductors and Their Implications for Global Trade” — The Brookings Institution, 12 p.m.: "The 2022 National Defense Strategy: A Conversation with COLIN KAHL” — The United States Institute of Peace, 1 p.m.: "Resolving Tensions Between South Korea and Japan: Creative Approaches to Strengthening the Relationship" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 p.m.: "The 2022 Missile Defense Review: A Conversation with JOHN PLUMB" — The Wilson Center's Middle East Program, 3 p.m.: "U.S. Policy on Lebanon: A Conversation with Assistant Secretary of State for NEA Ambassador BARBARA LEAF" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who hasn’t found the strategy to solve the problems that is us. And we thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who has all the answers.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: Competitive capabilities for America’s next strategic tanker.
The LMXT aircraft delivers proven capabilities for the U.S. Air Force’s increasing aerial refueling missions. One of the LMXT’s discriminating capabilities is its refueling system, which includes a fly-by-wire aerial refueling boom. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
