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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | | 
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced his new stance just before congressional elections in the U.S. in which Republicans are expected to recapture at least one chamber — potentially endangering further financial and military support for Ukraine. | Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images | With help from Lara Seligman, Lee Hudson and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Ask, and you shall receive: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY’s new stance that peace talks with Russia can begin with VLADIMIR PUTIN in power was directly due to soft nudging by the Biden administration , two people familiar with the situation told NatSec Daily. Zelenskyy outlined five conditions for negotiations on Monday, including ones he’s said before, like the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the punishment of war crimes and reparations. What he didn’t say, unlike in past announcements , was that Putin must be out of power before such conversations can take place. Why the change? One of the people said it came after days of talks between Kyiv and Washington — including an in-person visit with Zelenskyy by national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN. U.S. officials didn’t directly tell Zelenskyy and his aides in Ukraine to alter their position, a senior administration official said, but did relay that Kyiv must show its willingness to end the war reasonably and peacefully. The hope is it would reinforce to the world that it’s Ukraine, not Russia, that wants to resolve the conflict. “That doesn’t mean they need to go to the negotiating table right now. We don’t even think right now is the right time based on what Russia is doing,” the official continued. Zelenskyy announced his new stance just before congressional elections in the U.S. in which Republicans are expected to recapture at least one chamber — potentially endangering further financial and military support for Ukraine . STEVEN PIFER, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, called Zelenskyy’s five conditions reasonable. “They are an understandable position for a Ukrainian government that is the victim of a brutal and unprovoked invasion, has been winning on the battlefield the past ten weeks, and faces an entirely unrealistic set of negotiating demands from Moscow,” he said. Read Alex’s full story here .
| | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | | | | AUSTIN STAYING PUT: The midterm elections are typically the point in a U.S. presidential cycle where you see top Cabinet members begin to turn over. But our own LARA SELIGMAN reports that it’s looking more and more like at least one senior official is staying put: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN. The Pentagon chief has not had any discussions with White House officials about leaving his post after the elections, Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. PAT RYDER told reporters during a Tuesday briefing. He declined to speculate about whether continuing on in his job is contingent on the Democrats doing well in tonight’s election. There has been speculation among observers that Austin, who at age 69 has already had a long career as a four-star general and industry executive, may at some point turn the post over to his deputy, KATHLEEN HICKS, who would be the first female defense secretary. For his part, Austin has been a critical voice in the Ukraine conflict, helping round up billions of dollars worth of military aid from around the world for Kyiv. Biden may be betting that now — as the war effort becomes even more entrenched and funding for military and humanitarian aid is emerging as a wedge issue for the GOP — is not the time to change up the top ranks of the Pentagon. U.S. TALKING TO RUSSIANS: The Biden administration confirmed it has been holding high-level talks with Russian officials to deescalate tensions. White House spokesperson KARINE JEAN-PIERRE told reporters Monday that the conversations focus “on risk reduction.” And national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN later added that “we have done so when it’s been necessary to clarify potential misunderstandings and try to reduce risk and reduce the possibility of catastrophe like the potential use of nuclear weapons. This news, plus the revelation that Sullivan recently went to Kyiv , all seem targeted at mollifying Democrats and Republicans who’ve wanted the U.S. to take a more aggressive diplomatic stance on the war. MOSCOW’S SECRET DEAL WITH IRAN: Russia secretly transported $141 million along with captured weapons from the U.K. and U.S. to Iran in exchange for dozens of drones, Sky News’ DEBORAH HAYNES reports , citing a security source. The money and a British NLAW anti-tank missile, a U.S. Javelin anti-tank missile and a Stinger anti-aircraft missile were flown on a Russian military plane to an airport in Tehran in August, according to the source. The weapons, which were intended to be shipped to Ukraine for its war efforts, “fell into Russian hands,” they said. The shipment could provide Iran with the chance to study and potentially copy Western technology, the source said. For the goods, Russia received more than 160 UAVs, including 100 Shahed-136 drones. Another drone deal worth $201 million has been agreed upon between the two countries in recent days, the source said. RUSSIA DENIES LARGE LOSSES: The Kremlin issued a rare rebuke Monday of a report saying that Russia lost hundreds of troops during a recent battle in Eastern Ukraine, the New York Times’ ANATOLY KURMANAEV reports. The pro-war blog Grey Zone posted an open letter it said was written by members of the 155th Marine Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet. In the letter, the troops wrote that they lost 300 people in Pavlivka. “They call people fodder,” the letter said of the brigade’s commanders. Russia’s Defense Ministry denied the claim in the letter, adding that the brigade was part of an “effective offensive action.” It’s another sign that Moscow is having trouble pushing back against criticisms of its mishandling of the war— even from pro-war parts of the populace. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33 . While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio , @magmill95 , @ericgeller , @johnnysaks130 and @Lawrence_Ukenye .
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | WE DIDN’T DO IT 2.0: North Korea denied reports that it’s providing artillery shells to Russia for its war against Ukraine and accused the U.S of lying Tuesday, the Associated Press’ HYUNG-JIN KIM and KIM TONG-HYUNG report . Last week, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY accused KIM JONG UN’s regime of supplying Moscow with a “significant number” of ammunition, claiming the country was attempting to disguise shipments as being delivered to the Middle East or North Africa. North Korea denied similar allegations by the U.S. in September. “We regard such moves of the U.S. as part of its hostile attempt to tarnish the image of [North Korea] in the international arena,” an unidentified vice director at the North Korean ministry’s military foreign affairs office said in a statement via state media. THREATENING TAIWAN: Any effort by Taiwan to collude with other countries to pursue its independence will have repercussions from China, Foreign Ministry spokesperson ZHAO LIJIAN said Tuesday, Reuters reports. The threat came in response to Taiwan’s plan, announced earlier this week, to invest the equivalent of $10 million in chip production in Lithuania. Tension between China and the island nation is caused by authorities of Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party colluding with external forces, Lijian said at a regular briefing in Beijing.
| | | EYES ON EU: SOPHIE IN ’T VELD, the European Parliament’s lead lawmaker investigating the use of spyware in Europe, slammed some of Europe’s most powerful politicians as sharing the blame for hacking phones with malicious software, our own NEKTARIA STAMOULI and SHANNON VAN SANT report (for Pro!) . Members of Parliament spent months investigating a series of scandals in countries including Spain, Greece, Hungary and Poland about how spyware ended up on phones of opposition figures and journalists. The results of the probe “are shocking and they should alarm every European citizen,” said a draft report by In’t Veld released Tuesday. The Dutch lawmaker told POLITICO that all member states have spyware at their disposal, whether they admit it or not. “Manipulation of national elections with the use of spyware, directly affects the composition of EU institutions and the political balance in the EU governance bodies. The four or five governments, accused of abusing spyware, represent almost a quarter of the EU population, so they carry considerable weight in the Council,” her report said. “We are very worried about American democracy, we are very worried about democracy in Brazil. … Why is it that we are worried about lots of things except for democracy inside the European Union itself?” In ’t Veld said in the interview.
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S 2nd ANNUAL DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/16: The United States is facing a defining moment in the future of its defense, national security and democratic ideals. The current conflicts and developments around the world are pushing Washington to reshape its defense strategy and how it cooperates with allies. Join POLITICO for our second annual defense summit, “At a Crossroads: America’s Defense Strategy” on November 16 in person at the Schuyler DC or join online to hear keynote interviews and panels discussing the road ahead for America’s national security. REGISTER HERE . | | | | | | | | B-21 UNVEILING: The new stealth bomber Northrop Grumman will reveal to the world on Dec. 2 is both a “test article” and similar to the aircraft they expect to produce, company CEO KATHY WARDEN said Tuesday. The B-21 stealth bomber rollout means the multibillion-dollar B-21 Raider program is getting close to flight testing in 2023 and production years later, Warden said. The Air Force awarded a $21.4 billion contract for the B-21 Raider to Northrop in 2015, but the deal could eventually be worth up to $80 billion. The service plans to buy a minimum of 100 B-21 bombers. CLOSING ON CLOUDS: The Pentagon plans to award up to $9 billion in multiple cloud computing contracts in early December, our friends over at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report. The Pentagon issued formal solicitations to Amazon Web Services, Google, Microsoft and Oracle for the Joint Warfighting Cloud Capability, Pentagon spokesperson JOHN SHERMAN said Monday. It’s the Pentagon’s second attempt to buy enterprise and cloud services, with the previous project — designed to be awarded to a single company — canceled in July 2021 after years of legal challenges. The contract is expected to be for three years, with options to extend for up to two more.
| | | GRAB YOUR POPCORN: The House and Senate are up for grabs today, and voters could throw oversight of the Pentagon and defense spending to Republicans, frustrating the Biden administration for the next two years, Morning Defense also reports. Here's a snapshot of the races we’re watching: In the House, several of the most competitive races involve HASC Democrats, including Reps. ELISSA SLOTKIN of Michigan, ELAINE LURIA of Virginia and JARED GOLDEN of Maine. Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping to mitigate their losses by knocking off Republican Rep. DON BACON in an Omaha, Neb., district that President JOE BIDEN won in 2020. On the Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. ABIGAIL SPANBERGER (D-Va.) faces a challenge in a redrawn Virginia district that includes the outer reaches of the capital area. In the Senate, most of SASC isn't up for reelection, but GOP chances to break the 50-50 deadlock may hinge on defeating Democratic Sen. MARK KELLY in Arizona, where he faces a challenge from Republican BLAKE MASTERS. A GOP takeover would catapult several defense hawks to top positions. Republican Rep. MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) would be poised to take the HASC gavel, and Sen. ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) said he plans to make a bid to succeed retiring Sen. JIM INHOFE (R-Okla.) as the top Republican on SASC. For the full story, read our own CONNOR O’BRIEN’s Pro preview of races to watch tonight .
| | | NOT ON OUR WATCH: European Council President CHARLES MICHEL was slated to give a pre-recorded address at a major trade exposition’s opening ceremony, but Chinese authorities pulled it because it included criticism of Russia’s war in Ukraine, three diplomats told Reuters’ MARTIN QUIN POLLARD and JAN STRUPCZEWSKI . One of several videos from world leaders, Michel’s speech included criticism of the war and called for reduced European Union trade dependency on China, the diplomats said. It was set to be aired at the China International Import Expo on Friday. "As requested by the Chinese authorities, we had indeed provided a pre-recorded message which was ultimately not shown. We have addressed this through the normal diplomatic channels,” BAREND LEYTS, a spokesperson for Michel, told Reuters. U.S. TO AUSTRALIA: NO NUKE BAN: The U.S. is warning Australia not to sign a landmark nuclear treaty, claiming it would harm America’s defense arrangements with allies, the Guardian’s DANIEL HURST reports. The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons would effectively prohibit the development and usage of nuclear weapons. The U.S. has consistently opposed the pact. Though the U.S. understands the desire to advance nuclear disarmament, “the United States does not believe that progress toward nuclear disarmament can be decoupled from the prevailing security threats in today’s world,” a spokesperson for the U.S. embassy told the Guardian Australia. The U.S. and Australia, along with the United Kingdom, are working together on a nuclear-submarine program.
| | | |   | | | | | | — BRIAN WAGNER has joined Maxar Technologies as the company’s first director for public sector communications. He was previously the senior director for strategic communications at Peraton. — ROYA RAHMANI and JULIÁN VENTURA are joining Albright Stonebridge Group as senior advisers. Rahmani is vice chair for public policy at Delphos and distinguished fellow at the Georgetown Institute for Women Peace and Security and the former Afghan ambassador to the U.S. Ventura is the former Mexican deputy secretary of foreign affairs.
| | | — CHRISTOPHER MILLER, The Financial Times: “ ‘One long day in hell’: Ukrainian PoWs recall desperate fight for Mariupol ” — NADIA SCHADLOW, Foreign Policy: A Conservative Vision for U.S. Foreign Policy — IVAN KRASTEV, The New York Times: Europe Is Committed to Ukraine, for Now
| | | — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 8 a.m.: "U.S.-China Relations After the Midterms" — The Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Belvoir, 8:15 a.m.: "Industry Days" forum — The Heritage Foundation, 10 a.m.: "What China's Strategic Breakout Means for the U.S." Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whose editing nudges are not even remotely soft. And we thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who always lets us down gently.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
