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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward , Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
The “investigation is going on and we’ll find out the finer details, but the big thing is to remain calm during the situation,” said Gen. James McConville, the U.S. Army chief of staff. | Sean Rayford/AP Photo | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt One of the most senior U.S. military officials urged the world to “ remain calm ” during the investigation into who shot the deadly missile that landed in Poland Tuesday. The “investigation is going on, and we’ll find out the finer details, but the big thing is to remain calm during the situation,” Gen. JAMES McCONVILLE, the U.S. Army chief of staff, told our own LARA SELIGMAN Wednesday at POLITICO’s second annual defense summit . “When you have strong militaries with modern capabilities, sometimes you can miscalculate, or you can misconstrue what happened, and that can make for a very, very dangerous situation.” His request came after a clear rift emerged between Kyiv and NATO over the probe’s result. The Biden administration has backed Poland’s finding that what killed two people in Przewodów was likely an errant Ukrainian air defense missile sent to intercept one of the roughly 100 Russian cruise missiles targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. National Security Council spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON said that “we have seen nothing that contradicts” the Polish assessment. But Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY doubled down on his administration’s stance that a Russian projectile was at fault, not a Ukrainian one. “I have no doubt...that it was not our missile or our missile strike,” he said, citing his conversations with senior brass. It’s perhaps hard for Zelenskyy to backtrack after he immediately blamed Russia following the explosion and his top diplomat labeled the idea that a Ukrainian missile crash landed in Poland a “conspiracy theory.” Still, some Ukrainian officials are using the presumed accident to push for greater American and European involvement in the war , namely by establishing and enforcing a no-fly zone. Some experts say that Ukraine has lost a bit of its credibility over the last 24 hours. “The unnerving question is whether the Ukrainian leadership is unaware of important battlefield developments and just shot from the hip blaming Russia, or whether they knew or suspected it was their SAM but said it was Russia anyway,” the Cato Institute’s JUSTIN LOGAN told NatSec Daily. “Retaking Kherson was a big deal, but so is Kyiv's misinformation on this.” An unnamed diplomat from a NATO country unloaded on Ukraine to the Financial Times’ CHRISTOPHER MILLER : “This is getting ridiculous. The Ukrainians are destroying [our] confidence in them. Nobody is blaming Ukraine and they are openly lying. This is more destructive than the missile.” There likely won’t be any consequences for Ukraine. Officials in the U.S. and Europe recognize it was an accident and blame Russia for putting Kyiv in the position to have to launch air-defense missiles anyway. “It is clear that the party ultimately responsible for this tragic incident is Russia, which launched a barrage of missiles on Ukraine specifically intended to target civilian infrastructure. Ukraine had — and has — every right to defend itself,” Watson said in her statement.
| | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | | | | MILLEY CALLS FOR TALKS AGAIN: Ukraine’s military is unlikely to force out Russia “unless the Russian army completely collapses,” Gen. MARK MILLEY, the Joint Chiefs chair, told reporters Wednesday. Still, a negotiation with Moscow to remove its troops may be possible, especially since Ukraine is in a “position of strength” following significant battlefield wins, Milley told reporters following the monthly meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group — a U.S.-led consortium of Ukraine allies. “There may be a political solution,” he said. “The Russian military is suffering tremendously. So, you want to negotiate at a time when you’re at your strength and your opponent is at weakness.” UKRAINE’S ENERGY ASKS: Ukraine is warning Western allies that it’s anticipating increased Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure in the coming days that it won’t be able to manage, our own ERIN BANCO and ANDREW DESIDERIO report . Kyiv doesn’t have enough replacement parts to bring heat and power back online if those attacks occur, according to two congressional officials and one Western official briefed on U.S. intelligence. Ukrainian officials have in recent days asked their American counterparts and more than half a dozen European countries for assistance preparing for a prolonged period with limited electricity and gas — a scenario Kyiv expects to complicate fighting on the ground and displace civilians, the officials and an adviser to the Ukrainian government said. BURNS IN KYIV: CIA Director BILL BURNS met with Zelenskyy and his intelligence counterparts in Kyiv on Tuesday as Russian missile strikes bombarded the city, CNN’s KATIE BO LILLIS reports . Tuesday’s trip marks the second time in less than a month that Burns has visited the city. This time, Burns had to take cover in the U.S. Embassy during Russia’s missile strikes on the capital, a U.S. official said. During his meeting with Ukraine’s leadership, Burns relayed that he spoke with the head of Russia’s foreign intelligence service, warning them not to use nuclear weapons, and reiterated the U.S. commitment to Ukraine. Public officials, including the director, have said there’s no evidence yet that Moscow is turning to the nuclear option. IRANIAN DRONE HITS ISRAELI TANKER: A suspected Iranian drone struck an Israeli-owned tanker in the Gulf of Oman Tuesday night, The Wall Street Journal’s DION NISSENBAUM and BENOIT FAUCON report . The drone appeared to be a Shahed-136, the same type of weapon that Iran has provided to Russia to strike infrastructure and civilian targets in Ukraine, an Israeli official told the Associated Press . The 600-foot Pacific Zircon was slightly damaged, but no injuries or deaths were reported and the ship was able to continue operating. The tanker is owned by Israeli billionaire IDAN OFER, who founded Eastern Pacific Shipping. The U.S. military denounced the strike as another sign of Iran’s threat to the Middle East. In recent weeks, concerns have risen over the possibility of Iran targeting Saudi Arabia. CHINA’S SUBTLE RUSSIA DIGS: The G-20 countries endorsed a declaration that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is hurting the global economy, pressuring Moscow to end the war — and China signed on to it. “Chinese officials have referred to the conflict as the ‘Ukraine crisis’ since it began, and China’s leader, XI JINPING, continued using this label during bilateral meetings in Bali,” per the Wall Street Journal’s JASON DOUGLAS and CHUN HAN WONG . “Beijing’s endorsement of the declaration seemed to signal a subtle shift in Chinese messaging on Ukraine, by acknowledging the ‘war’ label without necessarily adopting it.” China’s messaging has been interesting to follow during the meeting in Indonesia. During his first face-to-face meeting with Biden, Xi said that he was against the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine . That was seen as a message to Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN to back off his nuclear threats. WHY AFGHANISTAN COLLAPSED: The government of Afghanistan fell in part because it didn't think the United States was actually going to leave, a Pentagon watchdog reported Wednesday. In a new report , the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction said six factors contributed to Kabul's swift fall in 2021. They are: 1) "The Afghan government failed to recognize that the United States would actually leave"
2) "The exclusion of the Afghan government from U.S.-Taliban talks weakened and undermined it
3) "Despite its weakened position, the Afghan government insisted that the Taliban be effectively integrated into the Republic, making progress on peace negotiations difficult"
4) "The Taliban were unwilling to compromise"
5) "Former Afghan President ASHRAF GHANI governed through a highly selective, narrow circle of loyalists, destabilizing the government at a critical juncture"
6) "The Afghan government’s high level of centralization, endemic corruption, and struggle to attain legitimacy were long-term contributors to its eventual collapse" IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33 . While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio , @magmill95 , @ericgeller , @johnnysaks130 , @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye .
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The F-35 delivers the unrivaled advantage for our pilots, nation, and partners. A decisive differentiator in near-peer warfare, the F-35 is the most advanced node in 21st century warfare network-centric architecture. Learn more. | | | | | | BRITAIN’S GLOBAL THREATS: Britain’s domestic intelligence chief provided an update on the threats on his country from Iran, Russia and China. The United Kingdom uncovered 10 “potential threats” this year to “kidnap or even kill British or U.K.-based individuals perceived as enemies of the [Iranian] regime,” said KEN McCALLUM, the MI5 director . KEN McCALLUM also addressed threats emanating from Moscow, claiming that more than 100 Russian spies have been refused entry to the U.K. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, European allies have ejected more than 400 suspected Russian intelligence officers from their countries, McCallum said, characterizing it as “the most significant blow” to Moscow’s spy agencies in recent history. “We are facing adversaries who have massive scale and are not squeamish about the tactics they deploy,” the MI5 director said. As for China, McCallum said “the activities of the Chinese Communist Party pose the most game-changing strategic challenge to the U.K.,” namely by trying to influence Britain’s domestic politics. China is “seeking to co-opt and influence not just prominent parliamentarians across the political landscape, but people much earlier in their careers in public life, gradually building a debt of obligation,” McCallum said.
| | | DON’T DOWNLOAD WORLD CUP APPS: European officials are warning soccer/football fans against downloading Qatar's World Cup apps due to privacy risks, our own VINCENT MANANCOURT, LOUIS WESTENDARP and LAURA KAYALI reported Tuesday. With the tournament set to begin next week, German regulators released a statement claiming that certain apps that visitors are being asked to download collect more information than the apps' privacy notices indicate. One of the apps collects data on which phone number a call is made while another app prevents a device from going into sleep mode, according to German officials. Experts have labeled both apps as spyware because they provide the Qatari government with access to visitors' data. The upcoming tournament has been subject to increased criticism due to bribery, human rights concerns and the treatment of members of the LGBTQ community.
| | | A NEW WAY TO WATCH: The Army’s Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office is seeking new concepts to extend the range of sensors and secure communications in the Indo-Pacific region, our friends over at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report . In addition to drones and high-altitude balloons , the Army needs a surveillance system that can operate unattended for two weeks and can also link up with space-based systems, the notice says. Soldiers in the Pacific also often operate hundreds of miles from headquarters and need communications gear that can securely share intelligence and targeting data across the region's vast geography.
| | | | Tune in as international security leaders from democracies around the world discuss key challenges at the 14th annual Halifax International Security Forum live from Nova Scotia. As an official media partner, POLITICO will livestream the conversation beginning at 3 p.m. on November 18. The full three-day agenda is here . | | | | | | | | SMITH RIPS MCCARTHY: House Armed Services Chair ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.) slammed Minority Leader KEVIN McCARTHY (R-Calif.) on Wednesday over the GOP chief's call to delay passing a defense policy bill until next year, our own CONNOR O'BRIEN writes in. Speaking at POLITICO's Defense Summit, Smith warned that deferring an agreement on the already late National Defense Authorization Act, which outlines a major boost to the Pentagon budget and prescribes military policy, would undercut national security." If you kick it off four, five, six months, you are really damaging the United States military. So I hope Kevin McCarthy understands that," Smith said. "You are damaging the United States military every day past October 1st that you don't get it done, and certainly more so every day past January [first]." "We're going to get it done this year because that's the right thing to do," he added. McCarthy, who is set to be speaker when Republicans take over the House in January, told reporters on Capitol Hill on Tuesday that the defense bill should be put on hold until the new year. He accused Biden and Democrats of prioritizing "wokeism" and issues such as climate change at the expense of U.S. national security. DECEMBER NDAA VOTE?: Leaders are confident a compromise NDAA can be clinched and ready for a vote as early as the first week of December, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reported (for Pros!) Tuesday afternoon . "I think we're getting there," House Armed Services Chair ADAM SMITH told reporters on Tuesday. "I think we'll be ready the first week of December." HASC ranking member MIKE ROGERS echoed that sentiment, but with a grain of salt: "Who knows? It could come off the tracks, but this morning went very well.” The bullish tone came after the first meeting of the leaders of the HASC and SASC to hash out their competing bills after committee staff ironed out most differences over recess. HALIFAX CODEL: Seven senators will attend this weekend’s Halifax International Security Forum. Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) will lead the group that includes KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (D-N.Y.), CHRIS COONS (D-Del), TIM KAINE (D-Va.), MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.) and JACKY ROSEN (D-Nev.).
| | | CLOSER TO WAR: Former Russian President DMITRY MEDVEDEV said on Wednesday the missile that struck Poland and killed two people proves the West is moving closer to a World War. "The incident with the Ukrainian-alleged 'missile strike' on a Polish farm proves just one thing: waging a hybrid war against Russia, the West moves closer to world war," the former president wrote on Twitter. Fears of escalation have eased after NATO officials believe the missile was a stray fired from Ukraine's air defense systems rather a deliberate attack from the Kremlin. Russia has repeatedly targeted Kyiv with missile strikes that have crippled critical infrastructure.
| | | |   | | | | | | — The Aspen Institute announced the formation of a roughly 40-member Global Cybersecurity Group . Headed by European Parliament Member MARINA KALJURAND of Estonia, Singapore’s Cyber Security Agency CEO DAVID KOH, and Rapid7 President and CEO COREY THOMAS, the group will endeavor to develop solutions to global cyber challenges. Members held their first meeting in Prague earlier this month.
| | | — ARTHUR HERMAN, National Review: Biden Weakened the U.S. on the World Stage. China Is Taking Advantage — COURTNEY BUBLÉ, Defense One: What Contractors Think of the Proposed Rule on Climate Reporting — NEIL MELVIN and NATIA SESKURIA, Royal United Services Institute: A New Security Order in the Back Sea: The Role of Georgia
| | | — The Wilson Center, 9 a.m.: "Prospects for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament in South Asia" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: “China's Power: Up for Debate” — The Middle East Institute, 9:30 a.m.: “ Forever Changed: Examining the Logic Behind the Syrian Regime’s Violence ” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: The Capital Cable #59: Democracy, Values & International Community — The Institute for Defense and Government Advancement, 9:50 a.m.: “Realizing Joint All-Domain Command And Control” — Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 10:15 a.m.: “Threats to the Homeland” — The Hudson Institute, 11 a.m.: "China’s Cold War against the United States" — The Center for a New American Security, 12 p.m.: "Special Event: Spyware and Security with Congressman JIM HIMES" — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2:30 p.m.: “ Prospect of Political Change and Turkish Foreign Policy ” — The National Defense Industrial Association, 6:30 p.m.: "33rd Annual NDIA SO/LIC Symposium" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who always blames us for everything, even if the evidence says otherwise. And we thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who is blameless.
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Information is the battlespace advantage. F-35 sensor fusion provides vast amounts of information to accelerate critical decisions and win the fight. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
